The Democratic Takeover Up Close: Defeated House Incumbents
CQ Staff
The Democrats accomplished their stunning takeover of both chambers of Congress by netting six Senate seats — exactly what they needed for a 51-49 majority, including Democratic-aligned Vermont Independent Bernard Sanders and self-described Independent Democrat Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut — and by nearly doubling the 15-seat net gain they needed to claim control of the House.

The following are for-the-record summaries — written by the CQPolitics.com reporters who followed these races all year — of how the Democrats unseated 21 Republican House incumbents, en route to a total net gain that stands at 29 seats. The Democrats accomplished this while losing none of the seats that they currently hold.

The outcomes of two contests for Republican-held House seats still are pending:

• In Florida’s open 13th District, state election officials certified Republican Vern Buchanan as the winner by a margin of 369 votes, but Democratic nominee Christine Jennings is alleging that there were voting machine irregularities and is contesting the results. The winner will succeed two-term Republican Rep. Katherine Harris, who left the seat open for a Senate bid that failed.

• In Texas’ 23rd District, Republican Rep. Henry Bonilla and Democratic former Rep. Ciro D. Rodriguez face a Dec. 12 runoff. In a Nov. 7 all-candidate “blanket” primary, Bonilla finished first — with 49 percent, just short of the majority needed to win outright — and Rodriguez finished second. This unusual arrangement was the result of a court-ordered redrawing of the 23rd District this summer, after the Supreme Court’s June ruling that the existing lines for the district violated Hispanics’ voting rights.

A roundup of the Democrats’ takeovers of six Republican-held Senate seats was published by CQPolitics.com on Nov. 27. A roundup of the Democrats’ victories for eight GOP open seats will run later this week.

Arizona’s 5th District (Democratic state Sen. Harry E. Mitchell unseated Republican Rep. J.D. Hayworth, 50.4 percent to 46.4 percent)

Mitchell prevailed in a hard-fought battle with Hayworth, an outspoken and flamboyant conservative first elected in the 1994 Republican takeover of the House.

Democrats hit Hayworth hard on substantial campaign donations he had received in the past from disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff and his associates.

Hayworth denied any wrongdoing, and sought to manifest the conservative leanings of voters in this suburban Phoenix district by focusing on the hot-button issue of illegal immigration.

But his aggressive demeanor in debates and other forums turned problematic in his contest with the affable Mitchell, a well-liked former mayor of Tempe and former state Democratic Party chairman. The Arizona Republic endorsed Mitchell, calling Hayworth a bully and “among Capitol Hill's worst offenders” of extreme partisanship. — Marie Horrigan

California’s 11th (Democratic wind turbine company owner Jerry McNerney unseated Republican Rep. Richard W. Pombo, 53.2 percent to 46.8 percent)

McNerney garnered just 40 percent of the vote in a 2004 challenge to Pombo, and began his rematch bid this year as a distinct underdog in this Republican-leaning district located largely in the state’s Central Valley. In fact, national Democratic recruiters favored another candidate, whom McNerney nonetheless defeated in the June 6 primary.

McNerney, though, drew heavily on the national Democratic theme of a Republican Party “culture of corruption.” He criticized past campaign donations Pombo received from lobbyist Abramoff and accused the incumbent of unethical relationships with developers as House Resources Committee chairman.

Pombo denied wrongdoing. And despite the tough political atmosphere for the GOP, Pombo did not back off his strongly conservative agenda and welcomed President Bush to the district for campaign events.

But McNerney gained critical support from environmentalist groups and the national Democratic Party, which boosted him to the only partisan turnover of a House seat in any of California’s 53 districts. The victory made McNerney one of five Democrats who won rematches with Republicans to whom they lost in 2004. — Rachel Kapochunas

Connecticut’s 2nd (Democratic former state Rep. Joe Courtney unseated Republican Rep. Rob Simmons, 50.02 percent to 49.98 percent)

Running in an eastern Connecticut district with a history of highly competitive races, Courtney won the year’s closest House contest: He defeated Simmons by just 83 votes out of 242,410 cast.

After unseating veteran Democratic Rep. Sam Gejdenson in 2000, Simmons appeared to have settled into a comfortable position in a district that otherwise leans Democratic. A social issues moderate and former CIA agent, Simmons defeated Courtney by 8 percentage points in a first matchup in 2002, and defeated another Democratic candidate by a similar margin in 2004 — even as Democrat John Kerry led President Bush by 10 points among district voters.

But Courtney, in his delayed rematch with Simmons, had the national political environment on his side: The anti-incumbent and anti-Republican mood was too much for the congressman, though just barely. — Marie Horrigan

Connecticut’s 5th (Democratic state Sen. Christopher S. Murphy unseated Republican Rep. Nancy L. Johnson, 56.5 percent to 43.5 percent)

Johnson, who was bidding for a 13th House term, seemed for much of the campaign as somewhat less endangered than Simmons and another Connecticut Republican House colleague, 4th District Rep. Christopher Shays.

Kerry, who had a substantial 2004 edge over Bush in the 2nd and the 4th, just barely edged the president in Johnson’s northwestern Connecticut base. Johnson, as she had in previous campaigns, touted her moderate views on social issues and her influential position on the House Ways and Means Committee. And she and her Republican allies mocked the youthful Murphy as too green to serve in Congress.

But even as Shays survived a tough fight and Simmons lost by a razor-thin margin, Johnson not only lost — but was trounced.

Murphy and outside interest groups were aggressive in arguing that Johnson — one of the key architects of the Medicare Part D prescription drug benefit program that was roundly criticized by Democrats — was deep in the pockets of the pharmaceutical industry. And Murphy’s triumph was abetted by his energetic campaign style. — Marie Horrigan

Florida’s 22nd (Democratic state Sen. Ron Klein unseated Republican Rep. E. Clay Shaw Jr., 50.9 to 47.1 percent)

Shaw’s status as a conservative Republican in a district that narrowly favored Kerry for president in 2004, and the Democrats’ recruitment of the experienced and fundraising-capable Klein as their challenger, made this one of the earliest races targeted for 2006 by Democratic strategists.

Shaw over the years had won, often by wide margins, in Democratic-leaning areas. This was in part because of his focus on issues relevant to his large elderly constituency, including his past chairmanship of the Ways and Means subcommittee that oversees Social Security.

But Klein made headway by criticizing Shaw’s support for establishing personal savings accounts in the Social Security program, a controversial proposal for which Bush tried and failed to gain congressional consideration last year. That was just part of Klein’s theme of tying Shaw closely to Bush, which also included criticism of the incumbent’s support for the war in Iraq. — Rachel Kapochunas

Indiana’s 2nd (Democratic lawyer Joe Donnelly unseated Republican Rep. Chris Chocola, 54 percent to 46 percent)

Donnelly’s prospects did not look especially bright when he launched his 2006 rematch bid: Republican incumbent Chocola won a second term in 2004 by a 10-point margin over Donnelly, and district voters that year gave Bush a 13-point edge over Kerry.

But the political atmosphere in the 2nd was strikingly different this year. Bush’s job approval ratings plunged, and Donnelly pointed out frequently that Chocola seldom disagreed with the president’s position on House votes.

And Chocola, like some other Indiana Republicans, suffered from the stumbling start GOP Gov. Mitch Daniels endured since his election in 2004: Analysts said the congressman was a casualty of Daniels’ decision to allow a Spanish-Australian consortium to operate and maintain the Indiana Toll Road, a major highway that cuts through the 2nd District.

Donnelly’s success at raising about twice as much money for his second campaign than his first helped him seal his victory, and by a comfortable margin. — Greg Giroux

Indiana’s 8th (Democratic county sheriff Brad Ellsworth unseated Republican Rep. John Hostettler, 61 percent to 39 percent)

Democrats had long argued that Hostettler’s staunch conservatism placed him too far to the right even for his Republican-leaning southwestern Indiana constituency.

After failing in previous challenges, the Democrats recruited a potent candidate in Ellsworth, the elected sheriff in the county that includes the district’s population center of Evansville. The combination of Ellsworth’s strength and the toxic national political atmosphere for the GOP consigned Hostettler not only to defeat, but to a drubbing: He lost by a wider margin than any other congressional incumbent on Nov. 7.

Ellsworth, while criticizing Hostettler as a knee-jerk vote for Republican leaders, bolstered his bid by emphasizing his positioning as a conservative Democrat on abortion, gun and immigration issues. That blunted Hostettler’s effort to link Ellsworth to liberal House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi of California, who will become Speaker when the 110th Congress convenes in January. — Greg Giroux

Indiana’s 9th (Democratic former Rep. Baron P. Hill unseated Republican Rep. Mike Sodrel, 50 percent to 45.5 percent)

Former three-term House member Hill rebounded after losing the southeastern Indiana seat to Sodrel by one-half of 1 percentage point in 2004.

Sodrel, a transportation company owner, had reversed a 5-point loss to Hill in their initial 2002 matchup. He likely benefited in 2004 from Bush’s strength in the conservative-leaning district, where the president took 59 percent.

But ties to Bush were far less advantageous to Sodrel this year, and Hill — running on the slogan “bring back Baron” — portrayed the one-term Republican as too close to the president. While emphasizing development of alternative energy resources, Hill called for curbing the national debt and emphasized his past membership in the fiscally conservative group of House Democrats known as the Blue Dogs. — Greg Giroux

Iowa’s 2nd District (Democratic college professor Dave Loebsack unseated Republican Rep. Jim Leach, 51.4 percent to 48.6 percent)

This was one of the biggest upsets of the 2006 campaign. Leach’s mild-mannered Republican centrism had enabled him to weather previous tough elections in Iowa’s 2nd District, which takes in Cedar Rapids and Iowa City and has a decidedly Democratic lean. But the sharp decline in support for Bush and the national Republican Party eroded Leach’s long-solid popularity and made him vulnerable to Loebsack’s longshot campaign.

Loebsack prevailed even though his campaign got off to a stumbling start: He failed to meet the technical requirements to qualify for the June 6 primary. But since no other Democrat had filed to run, the state party was free under Iowa law to appoint Loebsack as the nominee.

Leach, even in an anti-Republican year, might have prevailed were it not for his self-imposed limitations on campaign fundraising, and his aversion to the kind of harshly negative campaigns that many vulnerable incumbents employ to ward off the opposition. — Greg Giroux

Kansas’ 2nd (Democrat Nancy Boyda, a former pharmaceutical company chemist, unseated Republican Rep. Jim Ryun, 50.6 percent to 47.1 percent)

Most of the Democratic takeover winners were identified early on by party strategists as top-tier candidates, and many received significant financial and logistical support from the national party. Boyda, on the other hand, benefited from something of a stealth upset bid.

It was not until very late in the campaign that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee regarded her as a threatening enough challenger to run ads against Ryun in the eastern Kansas district, where the state capital of Topeka is by far the largest city. But by that time, national Republican House strategists — their hands full trying to protect seats that were more obvious targets — were caught flat-footed.

Boyda’s prospects in this rematch initially were not seen as that promising, based on the results of her 2004 run against Ryun in which she lost by 15 points. The 2nd is also one of the more Republican-leaning districts picked up by the Democrats this year, having favored Bush by 20 points two years ago. But Boyda’s energetic campaign and centrist posture put her in a position to take advantage of the GOP’s declining fortunes. — Bob Benenson

Kentucky’s 3rd (Democratic alternative newspaper publisher John Yarmuth unseated Republican Rep. Anne M. Northup, 50.6 percent to 48.2 percent)

Although this Louisville-based district had narrowly favored Democrat Kerry over Bush in the 2004 presidential race, Northup’s track record suggested that she might just be able to weather the anti-Republican tide.

Just two years earlier, she had run way ahead of Bush, piling up a career-high 60 percent of the vote after a series of much closer races. This year, she again touted the federal funds she steered to the district as a veteran member of the Appropriations Committee.

A few weeks before the Nov. 7 election, Republican House campaign chief Thomas M. Reynolds of New York told reporters that he would be in for a long evening if Northup was defeated in Kentucky, where polling stations would close at 6 p.m.

This prediction turned out to be much more accurate than his boast that the GOP would maintain its House majority. Democrat Yarmuth succeeded by emphatically criticizing Northup’s strongly conservative voting record and deflecting the incumbent’s efforts to highlight past columns he wrote in his local alternative newspaper in an effort to brand him as too liberal. — Greg Giroux

Minnesota’s 1st (Democratic high school teacher Tim Walz unseated Republican Rep. Gil Gutknecht, 52.7 percent to 47.1 percent)

Walz’s bid against six-term incumbent Gutknecht initially appeared a long shot. Gutknecht, in his past two contests, had garnered 60 percent in 2004 and 62 percent in 2002.

Republicans argued that Walz, a retired National Guard officer who sharply criticized Bush’s handling of the Iraq war, was out of touch with the values of the largely rural southern Minnesota district, citing the endorsements he received from liberal media figures such as humorists Al Franken and Garrison Keillor.

But Walz argued that Gutknecht, despite his 12 years in office, had failed to “bring home the bacon” for his constituents. He also described Gutknecht — a member of the House Republican majority that had grown unpopular — as part of the problem. — Marie Horrigan

New Hampshire’s 1st (Democratic social worker Carol Shea-Porter unseated Republican Rep. Jeb Bradley, 51.3 percent to 48.6 percent)

On the long list of Democratic takeovers this year, there is no purer case of a grass-roots movement than the one that boosted Shea-Porter to victory over the highly favored Bradley.

Fueled by a base of activists who fervently oppose the Iraq war, Shea-Porter first won an upset victory in the Sept. 12 primary over the favored candidate of the Democratic Party establishment, then utilized the same font of energy to offset Bradley’s huge advantage in campaign funds.

The affable Bradley, who sought to present a centrist image, had seemed in good shape in a district that narrowly favored Bush in 2004. But he got swept up in one of the biggest one-state partisan tidal waves this year, one that saw the Democrats also capture the state’s other House seat and stage a historic takeover of both chambers of the state legislature, long dominated by the GOP. — Laura Blinkhorn

New Hampshire’s 2nd (Democratic lawyer Paul Hodes unseated Republican Rep. Charles Bass, 52.7 percent to 45.6 percent)

Challenger Hodes had two big obstacles to overcome. Although the 2nd District had over time developed a slight Democratic lean — it narrowly favored Kerry in 2004 — GOP incumbent Bass had prevailed for six terms by projecting an image of a moderate who disagreed with Republican leaders on some key issues. And Bass’ most recent victim at the polls was Hodes, who lost an initial challenge two years earlier by a 20-point margin.

But 2006 was a very different year. Hodes was much better organized and better funded than in his first run. And Bass was much more burdened by a political atmosphere working against Republicans in his home state.

Though it took some time for Hodes to establish credibility as a serious threat to Bass, he gained momentum throughout the fall and won going away. — Bob Benenson

New York’s 19th (Democrat John Hall, a longtime local activist and one-time star musician, unseated Republican Rep. Sue W. Kelly, 51.2 percent to 48.8 percent)

Kelly, who was seeking a seventh House term, banked on her image as a moderate (particularly on social issues) to help her deflect the year’s anti-Republican wave. But her Hudson Valley district, though GOP-leaning, was no stronghold — and she drew a Democratic opponent in Hall who was one of the premier human interest stories of Campaign 2006.

Though it was hardly obvious from his non-prepossessing appearance and manner, Hall in the 1970s was a big star of the soft-rock circuit: As lead singer and a songwriter for the group Orleans, Hall co-wrote such standards as “Still the One” and “Dance With Me.”

This tinge of celebrity — and a grass-roots base of devotees he developed during years in local Democratic politics — enabled him first to win the Sept. 12 primary over lawyer Judy Aydelott, a former Republican who had drawn support from some in the Democratic establishment because of her supposed bipartisan appeal.

Exhibiting a clear handle on issues and a proposed policy agenda that he would pursue in Congress, Hall hammered Kelly as too close to Bush and brushed aside the incumbent’s efforts to herald her congressional experience. — Marie Horrigan

New York’s 20th (Democratic attorney Kirsten Gillibrand unseated Republican Rep. John E. Sweeney, 53.1 percent to 46.9 percent)

Though a first-time candidate, Gillibrand made a mark as an early adopter of the Democratic theme that the Republicans had fomented a “culture of corruption” in Congress. She was unrelenting in attacking Sweeney on ethics issues, including his ties to lobbying groups — a particularly potent issue with the explosion of the Abramoff scandal.

The challenger had to overcome a perception that she was a longshot in an upper Hudson Valley district that gave 53 percent to Bush in 2004 and elected Sweeney to a fourth term that year with 66 percent over a much weaker opponent. But she quickly proved to be one of the year’s strongest non-incumbent fundraisers.

Republicans tried to turn the tables on Gillibrand over her personal investments and some family-related issues. But she was able to capitalize on allegations that Sweeney was trying to gloss over a past drunk-driving incident.

The clincher may have been news reports that Sweeney’s wife had told emergency responders last December that the congressman had physically abused her, even though Sweeney strongly denied the allegation and contended it was planted by Gillibrand. — Marie Horrigan

North Carolina’s 11th (Heath Shuler, a real estate developer and former football star, unseated Republican Rep. Charles H. Taylor, 53.8 percent to 46.2 percent)

A Republican lean in this western mountain district and Taylor’s ability to deliver for constituents as an Appropriations Committee member had enabled the incumbent to stay one step ahead of scandal throughout his eight terms. Democrats over the years had tried but failed to cash in on allegations of overdue taxes and financial impropriety by the congressman, in part because their nominees were unglamorous and were seen by voters as too liberal.

But the stars finally aligned for the Democrats in 2006. They recruited Shuler, a handsome 35-year-old who went from local high school football stardom to a stellar career as University of Tennessee’s quarterback and a less successful pro career. Charisma alone put Shuler in the running against Taylor, a 65-year-old with a dour demeanor and a generally low local profile.

Shuler sold himself as an old-line conservative Southern Democrat, with views generally to the right of his party on fiscal and social issues.

And ethics again reared up against Taylor at a most inopportune time: The Wall Street Journal in October ran a front-page story alleged that some of the money Taylor steered home to the district ended up in his own pockets and those of his political allies. Taylor vociferously denied the charge, but it did nothing to stop Shuler from gaining momentum and rolling to a comfortable 8-point margin. — Jeffrey L. Austin

Pennsylvania’s 4th (Democrat Jason Altmire, a former hospital association executive, unseated Republican Rep. Melissa A. Hart, 51.9 percent to 48.1 percent)

Three easy victories over little-known opponents may have made Hart a bit rusty and unready for Altmire’s strong challenge in a year when this ancestrally Democratic western Pennsylvania district — which of late had trended Republican — returned closer to its political roots.

Altmire, though a first-time candidate, is a former congressional aide. His campaign was not as well-funded nor did it gain as much attention as the clutch of high-profile Democratic takeover bids in the eastern part of the state. But that didn’t hurt and may have even helped Altmire: His campaign surged late, and that left Republican officials with little time to rush to Hart’s aid.

Growing antipathy to the Bush administration helped Altmire portray the consistently conservative-voting Hart as a rubber stamp for the president, while he touted his own right-of-center views on social issues such as abortion and gun control.

He got a lift from the strong Democratic tide in Pennsylvania, which included party Senate nominee Bob Casey’s ouster of Republican Rick Santorum, takeovers of three other House seats and Democrat Edward G. Rendell’s easy re-election victory for governor. — Greg Giroux

Pennsylvania’s 7th (Democrat Joe Sestak, a retired Navy vice admiral, unseated Republican Rep. Curt Weldon, 56.4 percent to 43.6 percent)

Weldon seemed politically secure entering the 2006 race, even though his suburban Philadelphia district’s Democratic trend was underscored in 2004 when Kerry took 53 percent of the presidential vote there. The 10-term incumbent was able to tout his senior position on the Armed Services Committee, and he easily exceeded Bush two years ago by winning with 59 percent.

But that figure was deceptive, as he ran against the latest of a series of little-known Democratic underdogs. The fact that 2006 would be very different was signaled when the Democrats recruited Sestak, who waged an exceptionally well-funded campaign and had military credentials that lent credence to his criticisms of Bush’s handling of the Iraq war.

The crushing blow, though, came in October, when news leaked of a federal investigation into whether Weldon used his office to steer business to a firm co-owned by his daughter. Weldon denied wrongdoing, but the damage was done, and Sestak surged to one of the widest victory margins among Democratic freshmen.

It didn’t help Weldon that incumbent Gov. Rendell, a former Philadelphia mayor, was dominating the 7th District’s vote at the top of the Democratic ticket. — Greg Giroux

Pennsylvania’s 8th (Democratic lawyer Patrick Murphy unseated Republican Rep. Michael G. Fitzpatrick, 50.3 percent to 49.7 percent)

It wasn’t clear early in the 2006 campaign whether Murphy could wage the vigorous campaign required to unseat Fitzpatrick in this district, anchored in suburbs north of Philadelphia. Although voters’ lean toward social moderation gave Kerry a narrow edge for president in 2004, the Republicans’ long local dominance in the Bucks County-based district gave freshman Fitzpatrick an organizational edge.

But Murphy impressively won his primary election, improved as a candidate, and received national attention as one of the more prominent Iraq war veterans running for office this year. One of Murphy’s strongest backers was Kerry, who helped him raise money.

Fitzpatrick brandished a record that was among the most independent and contrarian of House Republicans. But he simply could not overcome the strong Democratic trend nationally and in Pennsylvania.

Murphy surely got a boost from Rendell and Casey, who took 70 percent and 59 percent respectively in Bucks County. Fitzpatrick actually narrowly carried Bucks County, but he lost the portions of the district in the city of Philadelphia and suburban Montgomery County. — Greg Giroux

Pennsylvania’s 10th (Democratic political science professor Chris Carney unseated Republican Rep. Don Sherwood, 53 percent to 47 percent)

This northeastern Pennsylvania district has a strong Republican lean, but Sherwood was done in by a glaring personal vulnerability: a long extramarital affair with a young woman who also accused Sherwood of being physically abusive.

The congressman admitted to the affair, denied the abuse charges, and reached an out-of-court settlement of a lawsuit filed by the woman. But his lost local stature was evident by the May primary election, which he won with an underwhelming 56 percent against a political unknown.

The Democrats did not punt the opportunity, recruiting a candidate in Carney who provided a credible alternative even in a district that gave 60 percent to Bush in 2004. Carney is a lieutenant commander in the United States Navy Reserve who once advised the Pentagon on counterterrorism issues.

Sherwood likely would have lost anyway, but was not helped by news reports late in the campaign that the lawsuit settlement provided financial incentives for the woman with whom he was involved to not comment on the case until after the election. — Greg Giroux

© 2006 Congressional Quarterly