''Driven'' could sideswipe ''Bridget Jones''
Lori Reese www.facebook.com
Analysts expect the Stallone racetrack flick to finish first on a slow weekend
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EW.com
The April 27 weekend is sure to go down in box office history — as the one BEFORE ”The Mummy Returns” opens, that is. Industry watchers say studios are reluctant to open movies in the path of the highly anticipated sequel. ”Right now the box office is going through a slowdown,” says Gitesh Pandya of boxofficeguru.com. ”Studios are dumping their questionable products out there.”

As a result, analysts have low expectations for this week’s four newcomers: the Sylvestor Stallone race car drama ”Driven,” the adult aimed divorce comedy ”Town & Country” (featuring Warren Beatty, Goldie Hawn, Diane Keaton, and Gary Shandling), the indie caper ”One Night at McCool’s” (Liv Tyler, Matt Dillon, Michael Douglas, John Goodman) and the vampire thriller ”The Forsaken.”

”Driven” is likely to debut at between $8 and $10 million, dethroning last week’s box office champ, ”Bridget Jones’s Diary.” The ”Rocky behind the wheel” drama, which reunites the erstwhile Italian Stallion with director Renny Harlin for the first time since their 1993 hit ”Cliffhanger,” has the edge largely because of its adventure oriented theme and well known action star. ”Fast women, fast cars, that’s what people want,” says Bucksbaum. ”And Stallone still has a following in middle America, believe it or not.”

But Warner Bros., the film’s distributor, might have erred in its decision not to exploit Stallone’s star power. ”The company has gone out of its way to not show his face in the ads or posters,” points out Pandya. The studio could be wary about promoting the 54 year old actor because his latest effort, a remake of the cerebral 1970s crime classic ”Get Carter,” scored a meager $15 million domestic gross. However, ”Driven” marks a return to the sort of pumped up role for which Stallone is famous. ”People know him for the sports and action movies,” says Bucksbaum. ”’Driven’ is the right vehicle for him, no pun intended.”

While returning movies ”Spy Kids” ”Bridget,” and the kidnap thriller ”Along Came a Spider,” are expected to jostle for second through fourth places, the bad buzz magnet ”Town & Country” is likely to bow in fifth or sixth place, with only about $6 million. The New Line ensemble comedy has been in production for nearly three years as press reports mounted about feuds on the set, numerous script rewrites, and reshoots. The film’s original budget of $55 million rose to a reported $80 million.

Though the over 45 crowd might connect with ”Town”’s seasoned stars and alimony and infidelity plotlines, it is also more likely to be deterred by the bad press. ”Mature audiences are the only ones who care about those kinds of stories,” says Pandya. (New Line opted not to screen the movie in time for weekly publications like Entertainment Weekly; Lisa Schwarzbaum’s review can be found on EW.com.) ”I don’t think they’re going to recoup their costs on this one,” says Bucksbaum, who predicts the film’s total gross will be about $25 million.

By comparison , the $12 million budgeted ”McCool’s” is due for a windfall. This barroom ”Rashomon” is also expected to debut modestly with about $6 million. ”Dillon and Tyler are just midlevel stars and there are already too many comedies on the market for it to perform well,” points out Pandya. However, analysts say that ”McCool”’s quirky script and excellent performances will inspire positive word of mouth that could give the movie a boost in coming weeks. ”The art house crowd is going to need something to do when the ‘Mummy’ comes out,” says Bucksbaum. ”They’ll earn their money back, no question.”

Meanwhile, the teen targeted fang and fantasy flick ”The Forsaken” — with up and comers Kerr Smith (”Dawson Creek”) and Brendon Fehr (”Roswell”) — is unlikely to land near the top five. ”No stars and no interesting concept,” says Pandya. Other drawbacks: Young fans of the WB may be locked out due to the movie’s R rating, and the bloodsucker genre is a turnoff to many moviegoers. ”There have been so many vampire movies in the last 10 years,” says Bucksbaum. ”Sometimes holy water works, sometimes it doesn’t, sometimes its garlic. Come on. Let’s forget about this theme!” Well, that’s what they said about musty old mummies too — until Brendan Fraser unwrapped a hit back in ’99.