2021 Preseason Top 100 Prospects List
Tieran Alexander medium.com
This past season was different than any other season in recent memory. Gone were the days when fans could attend games. Gone were the minor leagues entirely. This season there was no new data for a…
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1. RF Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners

Yes, I have Julio Rodriguez as my #1 prospect in the MLB. Yes, I am a Mariners fan and it is possible that there is some subconscious bias in this ranking. This isn’t a decision I came to lightly. I’ve shared some of the dat that has me believing him to be #1 with non-Mariner fan friends and they either agree or at least consider the argument valid. One of my friends who is a Rays fan even agrees.

There are multiple very good reasons to believe that Julio is the best prospect in the game. It’s also worth noting that Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo also considers him to be #1. Also, for starters, Julio outperformed Wander offensively at the same levels in 2019 and is only two months older. Julio doesn’t feel like a true #1 guy but I had him #3 last year and both players that I had ahead of him took a step backwards this season at the alternate site which pushed him very narrowly to #1 for the the time being. I’m not sure he really progressed much this year but he at least didn’t lose ground like the two in front of him definitely did.

There is a false narrative perpetuating the industry that Julio Rodriguez is unathletic, slow, or a defensive liability. Some have even gone as far to claim that he is a future DH. Those reports are completely lacking in any factual backing and primarily body shaming. Julio Rodriguez is a big guy and his lower body is stocky in some places. He’s muscular and filled out. He doesn’t look like he should be fast so people just assume he isn’t.

In the statcast era, we’ve come to realize that looking slow doesn’t mean you are slow. Cody Bellinger was long graded as a below average runner, in actuality, he possesses 91st percentile sprint speed. Teoscar Hernandez is in the same boat although some were more optimistic with his speed grades. So was Jaylin Davis with average speed that turned out to be 97th percentile. Abraham Toro had a 35 speed heading into 2019 and then posted 91st percentile sprint speed in the majors that same year.

More importantly than just looking slow, scouts have a tendency to remember their first impression and cling to it- for better or for worse. Julio was only posting average run times when he was signed and it was universally expected that he would grow out of even average speed. That was four years ago, this is now. Carl Crawford was an average runner in high school but improved strength and conditioning coaching made him one of the biggest speed threats in the game once he was drafted. Ian Kinsler was a 30 runner coming out of high school who progressed into a plus runner with pro strength and conditioning coaching. Speed can progress both forwards or backwards, it isn’t some stationary number assigned as a teenager before they have even finished growing. Julio’s body had clearly progressed and as such those old scouting reports from when he was 16 and four inches shorter are essentially meaningless. Speed despite being probably the easiest tool to scout, is a hard tool to scout, and our primary unit of measure for it is home to first times which swings erratically in either direction based on a number of external factors. Say it with me, Julio is not a 40 runner. Like seriously.

Julio has a tendency to linger in the batter’s box when he puts the ball in the air. If you track him on a flyball, you’ll get a time that reflects that and he’ll grade out as a 40 runner. If you track him on an infield single- in the DWL I’ve clocked him with a nearly frame-perfect, 4.08.49 seconds time which would make him a 70+ runner. I don’t think that’s entirely accurate either and it’s likely his true speed lies somewhere in the middle of the extremes but he very clearly is not a below-average runner. He doesn’t post crazy stolen base numbers due to some difficulties with his jumps and just a lack of aggressiveness but he has the speed and he hits a lot of triples because of it- 13 in 143 career games in fact. If we count his Winter league stint he has 18 steals in 22 attempts. Julio can and does run well. This isn’t just me blowing hot air, Baseball Prospectus has reported the same on multiple occasions.

His glove is consistently underrated because people wrongly think that Julio is so slow, and speed is probably the largest part of outfield defense. You combine below-average speed with some rather adventurous routes in the outfield at times and it’s easy to see a DH projection. Although it is true that Julio’s routes can get a bit adventurous at times, and definitely need polishing it’s not enough for a DH projection. Route running can be coached- easily even and he already made strides there in Winter Ball. What can’t be coached is athleticism and the pure explosiveness that Julio has in his jumps. The Mariners are confident enough in Julio defensively that they’ve given him considerable exposure in centerfield. I don’t think he’s a centerfielder full time in the long term but I think he is more than capable of playing there in a pinch. I know there are some reports that think he’s an above-average defensive option there. There is still some DH sentiment in the industry here but projections have shifted in the last year with Baseball America and MLB Pipeline considering him above-average defensively now after a strong DWL showing.

For the little it’s worth, he looked great in right field in his brief DWL stint, showcasing tremendous range. His arm is one of the best arms in the entire minors that will effortlessly post crazy velocities from the outfield and hose runners trying to take extra bases all the way from the base of the wall. It’s accurate and a powerful tool in his arsenal. Even if you are pessimistic about Julio’s range, I’d argue the arm is still too good to DH him full time.

Julio Rodriguez is the baseball equivalent of a nuclear bomb at the plate. His power is the stuff that legends are made of. He posted a video of himself blasting a baseball with an exit velocity of 117 MPH this year and it’s very easy to believe that number just watching him swing. His exit velocities in instructs were blinding, in the nine games, we have Instructs stats for Julio, seven of those he hit a ball 105 MPH+. This is prodigious raw power from Julio. He generates incredible torque with his hips and does an excellent job keeping his hands back until his hips have broken the plane of the plate before uncoiling into the baseball with titanic momentum that he turns into elastic energy to launch baseballs 500 feet. His body control is tremendous and every action in his swing has a purpose.

He’ll alter the length of his stride based on the pitch location so as it not waste any of his strength and avoid whiffs. He clears his hips and stops the rotation incredibly well. His bat speed is extraordinarily potent and in the upper echelon of all players. He can swing out of his shoes at times and his head can get a bit bobbly on his whiffs which can be quite ugly but he makes contact and he makes loud contact frequently. He has had some struggles with elevating in the past but his swing plane seems to be geared towards elevation and he has too much explosive raw power to write off his raw power potential from being home run potential. His VBA’s are extremely steep in the limited play we’ve seen from this year according to the eye test and he is a line drive machine- including a 30% line drive rate in the small DWL sample from what I tracked. He posted an sdLA estimation of 25.6º in 2019 which is in approximately the 90th percentile of MLB players in 2019. He’s always going to run a high BABIP with his batted ball profile and his tremendous raw power.

His spray angles are also optimized. He hits groundballs to the opposite field at a rate that is double the league average, while also pulling flyballs at an above-average rate in 2019 as you would idealize in a hitter. He doesn’t pop up very frequently, and consistently barrels balls to all fields. It’s an elite profile at optimizing launch and spray that only reinforces the visual data that claims he’ll be a BABIP monster. If you roll spray angle into his xBA estimate, he has a .364 xBAcon which is the 4th highest of all prospects in the minors I have at least a 50 FV on who had at least 150 tracked BBE. It would also be first in the non-directionally influenced version of the sames stat amongst the 193 players I’ve ran the formula on who had at least 150 tracked BBE. For comparison, Wander Franco was at .318 directionally based xBAcon in 2o19. Julio’s ability to do damage on contact is nearly unparalleled especially once you remember he has 80 grade raw power.

The primary concern for Julio offensively prior to this season was his approach and aggressive strategy at the plate. Despite there not being a minor league season this year, Julio addressed that concern somewhat. He was immensely patient in instructs, walking 21.6% of the time, and remained patient in the Dominican Winter League where he walked 12.5% of the time. Holding the trend line from the AFL last year when he walked 15.9% of the time and struck out at the same rate.

In his first few games of Winter League play he was awful. He couldn’t hit a slider to save his life and was consistently chasing. This makes sense as he had only just come from instructs where he was facing High Schoolers and rookie ball pitchers. There was always going to be an adjustment period going from that to the best pitching he had ever faced in his life as most the arms he saw were fringe major-leaguers and high minors filler. After an ugly stretch at the beginning, he got his feet under him. He stopped chasing pitches off the plate and stuck to murdering fastballs. When sliders were in the zone he was back to swinging and altered his stride length once more to get to them and had mixed results doing so. His 11.94% swinging-strike rate in televised games from what I tracked is right around the big-league average and a huge improvement from last year. Juan Soto couldn’t hit breaking balls his rookie year either and he still had a 146 wRC+ because he stuck to what he was good at and made pitchers play to his strengths. Julio also has the work ethic to make me believe this won’t be a permanent flaw of his.

Julio is going to be a monster in all facets of the game and is a future superstar in the making. He has had some injury issues due to consistently being hit by pitches on his left wrist. They’re seemingly just fluky injuries that shouldn’t be a lingering concern on the surface level but they’ve happened with horrifying regularity and I can’t help but be slightly concerned moving forward. Those small concerns don’t hold him back from the top spot on this list.

He is already the face of the franchise and the Mariners are marketing him, not Kelenic as the Franchise Savior. His star will only grow more as he continues to dominate the minors en route to a possible major league stint as early as next year. (He’ll be ready but probably not up because of service time shenanigans.) You can realistically foresee Julio as Giancarlo Stanton during his Marlins days. The ceiling is absolutely that high.

There is risk in picking Julio over You-Know-Who as the best prospect in baseball but at the end of the day, I’ll take Julio’s bat over just about anyone’s and it’s an above-average glove as well. It’s only by a razor-thin margin, but I have Julio as the best prospect in baseball. He’s not a generational prospect and he’s not better than what we saw of Wander in 2020, Acuña Jr. in 2018, Moncada in 2017, Byron Buxton in 2016, Bryant in 2015, etc. but he is better than anyone we saw this year in a field lacking an obvious true talent #1 guy.

2. SS Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays

Wander Franco’s probably a shortstop but he put a question mark on that consensus opinion this year in the DWL where he briefly showed below-average arm strength before being shut down with a bicep strain. He still has the actions for the position but if there are some lingering arm issues then he could shift to second base which would decrease his value.

Wander is a dynamic talent with some of the best on-base skills we’ll ever see and as a cherry on top, he also possesses plus raw power. His bat speed is the stuff of legends and he has the best hitting hands I’ve ever seen. He manipulates the bat and controls the barrel as well as anyone. He doesn’t whiff- almost ever and his patience at the plate is acute as he’ll work walks eagerly if he isn’t given any pitches he likes. He can hit anything, breaking balls out of the zone he’ll connect with when he swings. Fastball over his head? He can get there too. His plate coverage is genuinely absurd and yet he still has the discipline to lay off of pitches he can’t necessarily drive most of the time. He is as good as anyone in the majors or minors at turning on the inside fastball and rarely gets tied up. There is no doubt in anyone’s mind that Wander Franco is going to get on base.

He rotates remarkably well from both sides of the plate and has some of the best batting practices in the minors. He’ll hit absolute tanks to all fields from both sides of the plate. His hips are powerful and he controls them incredibly well for his age. His exit velocities aren’t blinding, only maxing out at 108 MPH but averaging 89 MPH off the bat as an 18-year-old will always be impressive at that age and level. As he learns to more consistently get to his power that number will only grow as he climbs the ladder.

When I look at Wander Franco I see a lot of the flaws we were ignorant to in Vlad Jr. That isn’t to say that Vlad Jr. has been a bust, or that he can never improve. It’s certainly not saying that Wander Franco is going to be a disappointment. We gave Vlad Jr. as an industry, an 80 grade hit tool and 70 game power ignoring all the signs that tells us both those grades were completely moronic. Both Vlad Jr. and Wander Franco have elite bat to ball skills, elite bat speed and elite hands. What has held Vlad Jr. and now Wander back is an inability to optimize his launch angles.

Wander Franco has the same glaring flaw. He is a groundball machine who struggles to elevate with any consistency. He hits the ball very hard but when it is straight to the dirt it doesn’t matter- in the minors with significantly worse defenses it might somewhat, but it won’t fly in the majors. Vlad Jr. had a .352 batting average against groundballs in 2018 in the minors. The league average batting average on groundballs is .236. Mookie Betts has the highest batting average on batted balls this century at a mere .322 mark. Vlad Jr. was never going to come close to keeping that up.

Tangent aside, Wander hasn’t exploited groundballs near as much as Vlad Jr. did but there are some warning signs in his hit tool. Aside from his groundball issues, he has yet to hit line drive at a clip even at league-average. He has a 16.1% line drive rate in his MiLB career. He has a very bland spray profile. He pulls groundballs at a slightly higher than league average rate in his career. He pulls flyballs and line drives as a slightly below-league average rate. Neither of those things are ideal. They won’t stop him from being a good player but it’s not the perfect hit tool it appears at first glance. He might be perfect at making contact but not hitting for average.

Moreover, Wander Franco took a step back this season in the limited body of work we have to evaluate him on. His average launch angle was only 1.7° at the alternate site this year on 41 batted balls, and it doesn’t matter how hard you hit the ball when it is straight into the ground. Not that he was hitting it all that hard as in that same small sample, he had an average exit velocity of 86.5 MPH and topped out at 105 MPH. He didn’t look much better in his brief winter league stint. It’s unfair to punish him too harshly for such a small sample but it is all the data we have and it is not good data. He even whiffed occasionally in the Dominican Winter League.

Let’s say he returns to 2019 form at elevating. He had a 9° in the minors in 2019 which is a lot better… and still in the bottom 20% of all qualified MLB hitters in 2020. You can succeed with a low launch angle if you are Yandy Diaz or DJ Lemahieu who hits 26% of groundballs to the opposite field. Wander doesn’t do that. Wander has plus raw power which is awesome but his elevation issues are a real concern. There is a not insignificant chance he is just David Fletcher. If you wanted to call Wander a slightly more interesting Nick Madrigal because he can switch hit, has better plate discipline, and possibly stick at shortstop, I can’t necessarily disagree with that assessment. To be fair, that player is likely a star in my mind.

Back on topic, his elevation issues leads to his power and hit tool both playing down a tad. Some of those flaws are undoubtedly age relative competition and will neuter with time. I think in the end, his talent will win out and he’ll probably learn to elevate with at least playable regularity (especially with the Rays development team) to ascend into stardom but there is some risk in the hit tool that we have to account for. There is even more risk in his power not playing if he can’t elevate more frequently.

So what happens to Wander Franco if he never fixes this? What do we have if he follows a Vlad Jr. path of untapped offensive potential? Ultimately, what separates Wander Franco from the pack is the fact that he plays shortstop. In hindsight, I’d probably have dropped Vlad Jr. out of the top five- maybe top ten prospects in the game because of his hit tool not actually being transcendent and his extreme defensive limitations- just acting on the info we knew at the time. Wander is different than Vlad. He illuminates some of Vlad’s flaws but rather than being a DH who needs to hit a lot to justify this ranking he plays the most valuable position on the diamond.

If Wander Franco turns into current Vlad Jr. offensively, a 107 wRC+ hitter in his career; then that is perfectly okay. Wander Franco would still project to be an average shortstop with a tick above-average speed and that would round out to a 3 fWAR player. That is basically Wander Franco’s floor and that is why he ranks so close to the top of this list despite me being bearish on his realistic projection. I think the next two prospects below him and Julio above him all have higher ceilings and arguably even better most likely outcomes but Wander’s floor is so high that he almost tops the list because he also possesses tremendous upside even if it is far off, alongside the highest floor of just about any prospect who has yet to appear at the MLB level.

I understand that Wander put up historic numbers in the minors and age relative to his competention projects him as one of the best prospects of all time but being andvanced for his age and projectable with room to improve are two very different things. There is an upper limit to how much his bat to ball skills will improve when he is older. Even if he cuts his swinging-strike rate in half and reaches Nick Madrigal territory in terms of bat to ball skills, the difference in his strikeout rates and performance would be negligible because of it. There are real concerns in the profile. He is arguably a one tool player right now. His angle optimization both horizontally and vertically needs to improve for him to be a star. However, even if he doesn’t improve he’s still a good player and that has inherent value that very few other share on this list.

3. C Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles

Adley Rutschman is a generational catching prospect- probably. He was the best catching prospect coming out of the draft, arguably ever. I’ve been told he had better trackman data than this year’s top draft selection, Spencer Torkelson in his junior season. He dominated in his pro debut, posting a 141 DRC+ across three different levels. He allegedly was even more impressive at the alternate site. If we had a season this year he might have established himself as the #1 prospect in all of baseball with his offensive presence as potent as it is, even as a catcher, providing too much value for Wander or Julio to keep up with.

Ultimately, it’s the remaining uncertainty due to the lack of a season that the offense will hold up catching 100+ games a year, and that his knees and hips won’t erode under a full workload that keeps him as only the #3 prospect in baseball. He’s an incredible defensive option behind the dish with soft hands that frame really well and rare athleticism to let him block balls and corral wild pitches. His arm is strong and well his accuracy can wane at times it’s more than serviceable. His pop times are fairly consistently grading out as plus or better and that same explosiveness is showcased when he has to field batted balls near home plate. There is very little doubt that he is not only capable of holding down the position defensively but that he can excel there and compete for gold gloves in the future.

The question is do you actually want Adley Rutschman to stay a catcher? Adley’s bat plays anywhere on the diamond and could be on par with Spencer Torkelson’s if he played elsewhere. Catchers tend to have a short shelf life and their bats tend to be inconsistent year to year because of the physical demands of the position. Adley might be the rare exception who can still be consistently elite at the plate in spite of playing catcher but is it worth the risk of breaking him? Probably but it’s probably at least worth considering giving him some semi-regular reps at other positions or as the DH to preserve his knees. The big question is does the bat hold up while catching 80+ games a season? We don’t know yet. I think it mostly will but catching is an unpredictable field.

Adley Rutschman is the rare switch hitter with very little of a noticeable platoon split. His bat to ball skills are elite and he has a keen knack for finding the barrel. He’ll start open and stride closed. His hands are direct to the ball but he typically will get his hips out in front of his hands. He doesn’t overrotate or fully extend and keeps his body under control until long after the bat has left the ball. He tends to be more passive than I would like and watches too many pitches in shadow zone- even with two strikes, so he’ll strike out looking somewhat frequently but at this point, I’m just nitpicking him. If Adley moved out from behind the dish, I would instantly slap a 70 on his hit tool but the uncertainty over how it holds up under an MLB workload and the lack of catchers with elite hit tools who catch full time holds it back.

His raw power is again an easy plus grade as is his game power. He rotates eminently well- maybe slightly better from the left-handed side but it’s still plus power from the other side. His batting practices will turn heads as he effortlessly sprays flyballs and line drives to all fields. His ability to generate natural loft and attack the baseball at an optimal angle is rare and immensely valuable. Again, catching creates risk but the offensive potential is immense.

The power is impressive enough that even if his hit tool doesn’t pan out from catching, you could be looking at a slightly inferior version of Yasamani Grandal. Adley is going to be a superstar, wherever he plays, in whatever role he plays. He should be in the MLB ready possibly opening day, this year, even if he likely won’t get the callup until the year after that. There is a very good argument to put Adley Rutschman as the best prospect in baseball and while I have an intense phobia of catchers that prevents me from doing so, I won’t argue if anyone has as their top guy.

4. SS Marco Luciano, San Francisco Giants

Giancarlo Stanton has long been the undisputed exit velocity king in the statcast era. He has the top four hardest-hit balls ever. He has eight of the top ten exit velocities on a batted ball. There have been 446 balls hit 115+ MPH in the statcast era. Giancarlo Stanton has 107 of those. Marco Luciano has the chance to have more raw power than Stanton. He’s that special.

Marco Luciano is only fourth on this list but he got the most consideration for the top spot out of everyone. Marco Luciano broke baseball when he hit a ball 119 MPH in an instructs game this winter. Julio Rodriguez hitting a ball 117 MPH was insane. This is ethereal. There are only four major league players in the statcast era to hit a ball that hard; Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Nelson Cruz. Those are three of the best hitters in the game and Gary Sanchez- not bad company to be in. The youngest player at the time they hit a ball 119.0 MPH+ was 25. Marco Luciano is 19 and already showing that kind of power. That power shouldn’t even be possible for a teenager.

It’s not as if Marco Luciano is just physically mature for his age either, there is still considerable projection left in his athletic frame. The raw power that Marco Luciano has is without historical precedent- and with it, his offensive potential nearly is as well. He might be somewhat lacking from a skills perspective but he does a lot of the things that can not be taught. His ability to rotate is incredible and the impact of his stride can not be understated. He’s an explosive quick twitch hitter with the physicality to make the most of it.

This isn’t just raw max power either but a lot of it is already present game power. His average exit velocity in 2019 was 93 MPH which would have been 96th percentile in the majors this past season. His outfield flyball rate of 37.78% is above league average as well. I’m not sure you can ever put 80 game power on a teenager who hasn’t even played a full season but Marco Luciano might warrant that label next year with an expectedly strong season this year.

His bat speed is electric and perhaps the best in the entire minors. He’s explosive upon footstrike and will swing in the blink of an eye. His bat speed gives him longer reaction windows to pitches and as such- hypothetically better plate discipline because his bat speed can catch up to anything. His bat path is direct and concise with little wasted movement and no clear hitches in it. He doesn’t have excess movement or a long windup to build velocity. It’s a short powerful and controlled swing that pulverizes every pitch it makes contact with. He’ll never be mistaken for being elite at putting bat to ball but he was above average for his level in 2019. That combined with his proclivity for hard contact and elevation should lead to a plus hit tool.

Marco Luciano isn’t the greatest defensive fit at shortstop but I don’t think it’s actually impossible he sticks there in the long term. His hands are fluid and he has solid fundamentals. His reaction times are present and his arm strength is more than sufficient for the position. He’s surprisingly agile for his size and while I think he loses a lot of that agility as he continues to fill in and is pushed to third base- if he hasn’t done so already, I don’t think it is all that crazy to consider Luciano a shortstop. He’s not going to be a good shortstop defensively but he looks to be at least playable there.

If we had a full season this year, I suspect that Marco Luciano would be the best prospect in baseball. His progress at the alternate site and instructs is incredibly encouraging and the only thing holding him back is the lack of evidence that he can do it in real live action above rookie ball. If he proves that, he’s the best prospect in baseball regardless of if any of the players above him graduate or not.

All four of my top four have their one wart that creates some risk, Julio has slight swing and miss concerns and there are expected to be growing pains at the MLB level. Wander has his elevation questions. Adley has his workload concerns and the normal catching risk. Marco Luciano has the fact that he hasn’t played above rookie-ball working against him. The top four are the clear-cut top tier for me with everyone else a step behind. You could put any of these four as number one and hear zero complaints from me. They are all stars in the making.

5. SP Ian Anderson, Atlanta Braves

Ian Anderson was one of the most dominant starting pitchers in baseball after his callup, according to a number of metrics this season. He ranked top five in ERA, xERA, dERA, Barell FIP, CRA, and xwOBA since his callup and top ten in wOBA, FIP, DRA, and K/9. His wOBAcon was the second-best in the MLB behind only Brad Keller since his callup and his xwOBAcon was the best in the MLB. Ian Anderson clearly showed he can be dominant at the major league level in his cup of coffee.

Ian Anderson isn’t just the best pitching prospect in the whole world for his performance at the MLB level, however, he’s on this list for his track record of dominance at every level and how potent his stuff is. In his 80 start MiLB career, he has a 2.91 ERA and a 3.07 career FIP with a career 3.37 xFIP. He has a 13.4% career swinging strike rate but also gets a ton of called strikes which leads to a 29.1% career strikeout rate. It’s easy to point out his swinging strike and whiff rates scream regression to the mean but outperforming his expected K rate is nothing new to him. Ian Anderson likes to nibble on the corners which deflate his swinging strike rates as he’ll waste pitches rather than attack hitters and give up hard contact as a result.

Ian Anderson has a three pitch mix that all grade out as at least above average pitches. His fastball is the most controversial pitch of his, with some scouts only calling it average. The pitch sits anywhere from 93–95 MPH and tops out at 97 MPH after a bit of a velo bump this year. The spin rate is only 9th percentile and that is where a lot of the disdain for it comes from. It’’s still a great pitch because it has everything else going for it. Ian Anderson gets 7.3 feet of extension on his fastball on average which gives it a perceived velocity of 95.8 MPH on average- 88th percentile in the MLB. He has an over the top arm slot that is perfect for generating vertical movement. He also has 99% spin efficiency on the fastball which gives it 90th percentile vertical movement. Premium velocity and premium movement on the fastball makes this easily at the very least a plus pitch, possibly double plus if this year's velo boost holds over a full season of work.

The curveball is his worst secondary and it is still comfortably above average. His curveball again is lacking in spin rate but it is successful due to the synergy it has with his arsenal. The curve is an almost perfect 12–6 curve as his has a 6:15 observed axis. His fastball has a 12:30 observed spin axis which creates almost a perfect mirror to the curve coming from nearly identical release points and that lets both pitches play up above their natural skill levels. The pitch is elite at generating weak contact as he’ll throw in the zone semi-frequently and when he pitches out it elicits chases due to the tumble and the tough angle it has from an over-the-top arm slot. The pitch has an 84th percentile whiff rate when he pitches out the zone, and I think as he learns to expand the one more, rather than relying on almost exclusively called strikes with it, he’ll see his curve move into plus territory.

Ian Anderson’s changeup is the bread and butter of his arsenal. It’s the best changeup in the minors and one of the best pitches changeups in the league entirely. It’s another somewhat unorthodox pitch. It’s very low spin at 1762 RPMs but it has 98% spin efficiency that erases much of the gap. It’s a reflected fastball with a 1:30 inferred spin axis that looks very similar to the fastball with a 1:15 observed spin axis. The changeup has below average movement on both planes because the movement isn’t actually that important on a changeup- what matters is deception. His changeup is 7 MPH slower than his fastball but comes from nearly the exact same release of the fastball and shares the same tunnel until it is too late for the hitter to react.

Interestingly enough, his changeup is most effective at the top of the zone, defying conventional wisdom and I do wonder if it could somehow be even more effective if he was to try pitching up with his changeup as Lucas Giolito does. His changeup doesn’t have much tumble and right now pitching down can give away what it is. It’s an elite pitch regardless of how he deploys it due to the tunneling with his heater that leads to both high whiff rates and it is elite at getting weak contact.

Ian Anderson has a track record beyond this year of limiting weak contact- not at an elite rate but at an above-average rate which makes it easier to buy into his contact suppression he showed this year as the real deal. His boost is connected to an obvious profile change in the form of the velo boost which provides an explanation for the noise. I don’t think he’s going to be the best contact suppressor in the MLB moving forward but he should continue to be very good at is since his batted ball profile is strong across the board and has been for a long while.

Ian Anderson’s command is a tricky thing to evaluate. On one hand, he is 93rd percentile in the standard deviation of his release point- aka repeating his release/delivery which scouts typically use as a gauge for command. That doesn’t actually matter. On the other hand, he has a 11.3% walk rate in his MiLB career and walked 10.1% of batters at the MLB level this year. On the other hand, his zone rates are above average, and he is also above average at avoiding the heart of the plate. I lean towards the side that his command is above average and he is intentionally pitching off of the plate and nibbling at hitters to get them to chase pitches off the plate and force whiffs or weak contact. It feels very notable that of his 24 walks this year including the postseason, 14 of them came in full counts that could just as easily have swung the other way.

I think that as Ian Anderson’s approach matures, he’ll learn to limit his walks and pick his situations for nibbling more carefully. Even if he doesn’t, I don’t think his walk problems would hold him back all that much due to how elite his out generation skills are. If you avoid hard contact and strike batters out then the walks will have a very minimal effect on how many runs you allow and Ian Anderson excels at those two things as much as anyone.

6. LF Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays

How do we value Randy Arozarena? I was somewhat high on him entering the year, ranking him as my #200 prospect in an ill-thought-out next one-hundred list. I thought it was somewhat possible he ascended onto the list this year but I certainly didn’t expect this.

Here’s a fun hypothetical let us pretend that all of Randy Arozarena’s 190 career PA across the regular season and postseason all came in the 2020 shortened regular season (You needed 186 PA to qualify this year). Forget about everything we ever saw from him in the minors before this year. Where would he rank in your top 100 MLB players in the entire game? Alternatively pretend AAA is the NPB since most think they are comparable talent levels and say he came from overseas after posting a 154 DRC+ last year. It’s not as if there was never a track record of success we just never bought into it translating. We were wrong.

He has hit .321/.399/.697 in his career to date across the regular and postseason for a 195 wRC+. That is six fewer plate appearances and a wRC+ six points lower than that of Juan Soto. Juan Soto’s was so good this year people are asking if Juan Soto’s a better hitter than Mike Trout after last year. Obviously Soto has a more lengthy track record than Arozarena but let’s not gloss over how absurd Randy was because it was in the postseason primarily.

His expected slash line is slightly worse at .289/.371/.579 but that is still an amazing 160 xwRC+. If he did that in the 2020 regular season he would have won AL MVP. He also offers plus defense in left field and elite speed. Instead of asking if he is a top 20 prospect in baseball we are asking if he is a top 20 player period. He’s not as good as he was this year but you don’t completely fluke into a performance like that very often.

His 195 wRC+ across 190 PA in his career would rank in the 99.7th percentile of all 60 game stretches in the history of the game by a qualified hitter. There have only been 41 better sixty game stretches in the last ten years. All of them have a career wRC+ over 100 and thirty of them have a career wRC+ over 125, 22 over 130, and 10 over 140. Half of that list has a solid chance to make the Hall of Fame and there are at least ten no doubters. Only one player on that list hasn’t made an All-Star game in their career, Lonnie Chisenhall. It’s extremely hard to fluke into a 60+ game stretch like that.

Arozarena is almost certainly going to hit based on his results so far. He shouldn’t be on this list at all but postseason starts don’t count so he is still somehow eligible in spite of his significant time at the MLB level where he has been among the games’ best players. He is 18th in xwOBA min 150 PA over the last two years and first in wOBA. He was second to only Juan Soto in wRC+ compared to only 2020 numbers for everyone else even while including his less spectacular 2019. He has plus defense in left and elite speed to boot. If you tried to argue Arozarena as the best prospect in the game because we’ve seen him be an MVP before I wouldn’t blame you at all. Harold Reynolds said he should be number one and he’s not entirely wrong. There is regression coming to his numbers- probably, but that doesn’t change what he has already done.

In 2020 we saw the MVP candidate Randy Arozarena who was one of the best players in the game and a five-category contributor. If that player is what we get moving forward this ranking is way too low. There is a somewhat high chance that it is who we see next year. There is an equally high possibility that he’s only an above average regular moving forward. I opted to split the difference by putting a high 65 FV on him but this ranking is maybe the one I’m the least confident in on the entire list.

Randy Arozarena’s hit tool might be the tool I have the most questions about. He showed surprising patience at the plate this year with only a 25.4% chase rate, a tick better than average. He watched more strikes than the average hitter, however, with only a 60.6% z-swing%. He ran an above average whiff rate at 33.3% but it is worth noting he almost exclusively faced good pitching that was playing for the strikeout most of the time since it was a postseason environment and his whiff rates were above-average in the minors. His pitches per plate appearance of 4.12 in his career including the postseason to date, is in the top quartile and I expect his walk rate will soon rise above league average because of that.

His ability to run high BABIPs is somewhat questionable. I say somewhat because he ran a .397 BABIP in the minors last year so despite some metrics being very skeptical of his ability to have high BABIPs I’m more optimistic. His VBA’s are incredibly shallow- when I say that, I mean like in the first percentile of MLB players at 22.2° on average last year. There are players who succeed with bottom of the line VBA’s, DJ Lemahieu, Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, Matt Chapman, and Robinson Cano being some of the biggest names but they all have VBA’s north of 26°- not 22° and all but Lemahieu consistently post average at best BABIPs. There is no precedent for a player with VBAs near as shallow as him finding success. Hunter Pence maybe? It’s not quite as shallow but it’s up there at 24.8° on average the last three years and he had a .317 career BABIP.

His launch angle optimization is also not exceptional with a very average batted ball profile in the minors last year and the majors this year. He had a 31.7° sdLA in the regular season which drops to a slightly above-average 28.1° in the postseason. The only thing we are leaning on for him to be a BABIP monster in AA/AAA numbers and the fact that he hits the ball very hard- 92.3 MPH exit velo on average this year. He also hits the ball on the ground 50% of the time, however, which lessens the impact of that. I don’t want to bet against his ability to run high BABIPs when he has a .382 lifetime BABIP across all levels since the start of 2019 in a 589 PA sample but man it’s somewhat difficult to believe against the underlying metrics here.

Part of the reason for that gap in expected and actual performance is because launch angle isn’t the only angle that needs to be optimized to have success in the big leagues, spray angle matters too. Since the start of 2019 across all levels, Randy Arozarena has a 44.9% pull rate on groundball, below league average(ideal). On flyballs he has a 29.1% pull rate which is above league average (ideal). On line drives, his 39.3% pull rate is also above-average (also ideal). He also has a popup rate well below league average. There are only fourother players on this list who do all of those things above-average or better. This is a very rare combination of skills. His ability to optimize his spray angle on all kinds of contact has me a believer in his ability to run a moderately high BABIP and outperform his xBA most years. I’ll acknowledge the possibility of getting scorched here in either direction but I have his hit tool graded as a plus.

His power is unquestionably a plus after this year. He bulked up during his quarantine and it showed on the diamond. He had an average exit velocity of 92.3 MPH this year with a 53.5% Hard Hit Rate which is the 12th best in the MLB min 100 BBE. His max exit velocity of 113.1 MPH is in the 87th percentile of MLB players with 100+ PA this year. It’s plus raw and maybe a tick more than that. His swing isn’t optimal for generating implicit loft but he does seem to get a lot of explicit loft which might allow him to outperform his VBA and sdLA ala Lemahieu and Juan Soto. His flyball rates are low and I don’t think he’ll ever get into all of his home run power potential despite what he was in the postseason. Still, it’s consistent hard contact which should still lead to a large quantity of doubles in the gap and high slugging percentages all the same.

Randy Arozarena is an elite runner- with 93rd percentile sprint speed this year even after bulking up. Despite his speed, I am cautious to project on his defense too much. His route running was abysmal and he has below-average hands. He’s obviously going to play left field on a team with Kevin Kiermaier but I’m not sure I like him in center regardless. His range is good and his first step is above average so there is potential as everything else is largely coachable but I’m skeptical of the defensive outlook being elite even in left.

Randy Arozarena is a player who despite seeing for only 190 plate appearances at the MLB level, we still don’t have enough data to have any real clue what he will be. There are signs that point to him being a superstar and there are signs that point to him only being an average player. If postseason play counted for rookie qualifications I would be saved from the burden of having to decide what he is and could just believe all the hype but alas it doesn’t. Randy Arozarena will have a role at the MLB level for sure and a place in the Rays lineup this year. I have him projected for a median outcome as a 4–6 fWAR regular and a very low confidence interval in that projection.

7. CF Cristian Pache, Atlanta Braves

Cristian Pache doesn’t get a ton of hype in a Braves system that is loaded with young talent at the major league talent but he deserves the hype. His glove is his carrying tool as he has a high chance to be the best defensive centerfielder in baseball during his prime years. If he becomes the best defensive centerfielder in baseball, he doesn’t have to hit very much to profile as a regular. Yet, Cristian Pache also has considerable upside at the plate and should be at least a league-average hitter.

His swing isn’t perfect or pretty. He tends to get crossed up on inside pitches and his swing is deficient at times. His bat path is long and inefficient which leads to considerable swing and miss rates. He struggles with pitches on the inside of the plate- particularly at higher velocities, in spite of his bat speed, due to a tendency to prematurely fully extend his arms which also leads to a decreased power output from Pache.

That being said, he shows plenty of flashes of brilliance that make you dream of him being an offensive force. His hand-eye coordination is tremendous and could be a sign pointing to possible future improvement made with his bat path. His pitch recognition appears to be advanced even if his approach can get hyper-aggressive at times. He’ll alter his leg kick to adjust to the type of pitch and make more optimal contact. His tendency to extend allows him to barrel balls up on the outside of the plate. His ability to make small adjustments is impressive and he rarely will pop up.

There is room to improve in his swing but he’s shown signs of improving there- particularly in the postseason. There his pitch recognition was well beyond his years with a 27.7% chase rate and a 78.8% Z-swing% against some of the toughest pitchers in the world.

His power potential is probably better than the raw grade I gave it but without a complete overhaul to his inefficient bat path, it’s difficult to see him hitting for a ton of power. He has big-time strength and physicality which allow him to hit the ball hard. He does most of the things needed for a mechanically efficient swing but the bat path and premature extension hold him back.

He creates a hip hinge after his footstep to coil his load and generates some hip torso separation when he twists his torso away from the pitcher as his hips fire. He rotates around a stable base created by that hip flexion and it leads to lots of bat speed and power, theoretically. He stops his rotation and doesn't overrotate and let his front side leak out. His back foot will drag at times when he swings out of his shoes but that shouldn’t have too significant of an effect on his power output. Pache averaged 88 MPH on his batted balls in 2019 MPH so it’s not as if he isn’t hitting with any authority as is, but it could be so much more if he cleaned up his bat path and learned to finish.

Cristian Pache does, however, lack a feel for elevation which is ultimately what gets him to only average power. He struggles to put the ball in the air with any regularity. He had a 26.5% OFFB% in 2019 and in his MLB sample including postseason play had an average launch angle of zero. He pulls most of the flyballs he occasionally hits so he should hypothetically run a high HR/FB ratio with his above-average raw but it hasn’t ever actualized in practice, and he doesn’t generate enough loft for it play even if did. It’s only an average game power projection right now, even if I think it’s entirely possible it winds up better than that.

Cristian Pache has elite speed and there is no reason to believe he’ll lose any of it as he matures. It doesn’t play on the bases but in the field it absolutely does. Cristian Pache is a black hole in centerfield that sucks in and swallows every ball hit towards him to never be seen again. His explosive burst is breathtaking as he’ll get the best jumps in the league which combined with his plus speed lets him range all over the field to make plays. His acceleration is like a light switch and he has the agility to change directions without slowing down much at all. His glove is solid gold and his routes are crisp.

His arm is almost equally as good as his range. He has elite arm strength with quick feet that let him go through his footwork progressions with little delay. His throws are frequently on target and no one can ever advance on flyballs to him. It might be the best arm of all pure outfield prospects.

Kevin Kiermaier has been a star at the MLB level despite only posting a 97 wRC+ in his career due to the value his glove provides. Kiermaier is averaging 6.1 rWAR/162 and 4.2 fWAR/162 in his career because he is arguably the best defender of all time in centerfield. I think Pache is trending in the same direction as Kiermaier, You’ll likely get a little less from him on defense with a little more on offense but he’s headed for stardom because elite defense is so so valuable. His defensive value creates a super high floor and should give him an everyday role at worst.

8. SP Mackenzie Gore, San Diego Padres

It’s really hard to drop MacKenzie Gore too much despite all the negative reports from the alternate site and the lack of confidence the Padres showed in him this season because I just haven’t got to see Gore at all in 2020. I understand that his stuff was down and he was having mechanical issues that set him back. I understand that the Padres trusted Ryan Weathers and a weak Padres bullpen more than him in the playoffs. I understand that they would rather pitch Mike Clevinger with a partially torn UCL than turn to him in the NLDS. Those are huge red flags.

In my head that all makes sense and warrants serious concern but I can’t rationalize that with the MacKenzie Gore we saw last year who was the clear cut, #1 pitching prospect in baseball. He had a clean bill of health with pristine stuff and command. Perhaps, he’s not that guy anymore or perhaps he just found it hard to pitch his best in the weird conditions of the alternate site.

MacKenzie Gore is the only pitcher in the minors who I have graded with four play pitches. His fastball is his most frequently used offering and it is a good one. His fastball only sits 92–95 MPH and tops out at 97 MPH but it has elite traits. He throws from an over the top arm slot with an extraordinarily low vertical release point which leads to a very flat vertical approach angle on the fastball up in the zone. The pitch has perfect backspin great vertical movement that misses bats and led to a 15% swinging strike rate on the pitch in the minors in 2019. The pitch grades out as at least a plus in spite of only average velocity.

His curveball is either his best or worst secondary depending on who you ask. It’s a two plane bender with lots of movement but it sits in the mid to upper seventies. Slow breaking balls with a lot of movement are hard to predict how they might translate and his can be recognizable out of the hand at times- especially late last season. I still think it’s a plus pitch with his depth but I’m skeptical it’s as good as the movement and results seem to indicate.

His slider is his best secondary in my evaluations. He’ll throw it in the 85–87 MPH range with a snappy late break to it. It has an impressive horizontal tilt with serious vertical movement as well and he can command it to his gloveside extremely well. It’s a late breaking pitch that tunnels with his fastball astonishingly well and to a lesser extent, the curveball.

His changeup is his least frequently used secondary but still easily grades out as a plus offering. It plays incredibly well off his four-seam fastball but has tailing action and sink that breaks late. It has an unusually low spin rate but a very similar spin axis to that of the fastball which lets it look the same as the fastball out of the hand despite very distinctly different movement patterns. His changeup like most prospects changeups, needs to improve its consistency and that will only come with more reps but it wouldn’t shock me at all if it becomes his best secondary pitch in the long run.

The deception element is his delivery really can not be undersold. It’s an astonishingly high leg kick with his high hands that has drawn comparisons to the greatest pitcher of all time- Clayton Kershaw. He has a very long stride and manages to his the ball until the last second where it explodes out of his hand and leaves batters swinging at thin air. His stuff has incredible synergy together which only further enhances the deception element of it all and makes it a game of guess who for opposing hitters every at bat.

His command was a plus but due to his apparent command troubles at the alternate site, I’ve tentatively shaded him down a half grade. He has in the past had feel for throwing all of his pitches for strikes at an unusually high rate. More importantly, he’s shown a feel for not throwing his stuff over the heart of the plate but instead attacking the shadow zones. He’s an all-world athlete with elite consistency prior to this year and again- prior to this year I had no doubts he would have plus or better command. I’m somewhat pessimistic now but the ingredients are still there for him to excel once more.

His batted ball profile is near perfect and quite possibly the most impressive attribute in the most impressive pitching prospect in the minors before he was setback this year. FaBIO had him as a 99th percentile batted ball rating in 2019 after ranking 95th percentile in 2018 and 100th percentile in his summer debut in 2017. It’s not hard to see why. He is elite at generating popups due to the carry on his fastball and has enough command to never give up line drives. His xBAcon is the second-best of all pitching prospects on this list at the MiLB level in 2019. What is really interesting is that he has a tendency to avoid flyballs to his pull side- that’s huge if it’s sustainable but it is still too small of a sample to decide it is so definitively as he’s only actually thrown 183 innings in his MiLB career. He’s drastically outpaced his FIP in the minors and I fully expect that to continue at the MLB level.

There is a high chance that MacKenzie Gore comes out rolling on all cylinders to start the season and dominates the opposition, making me and everyone else look the part of fools for ever doubting him for even a second. There is also a chance that the wheels continue to fall off and he never reaches his Ace potential making his lofty grade here look pretentious. He’s a bit of a mystery box as the Padres opted out of the data-sharing agreement for the alternate site so we are more in the dark than with other comparable prospects in other organizations here.

9. 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, Pittsburgh Pirates

Ke’Bryan Hayes broke baseball this September when he was the literal reincarnation of Barry Bonds, posting a 195 wRC+ across 95 plate appearances for 1.6 fWAR and 1.9 rWAR. His underlying xstats were not as effusive but they were still very good as he posted a 136 xwRC+ (literally wRC+ but with xwOBA values instead of wOBA). That being said, I’m not entirely convinced even that level of offensive excellence is sustainable for him moving forward.

Ke’Bryan Hayes has long had plus raw power- better according to some scouts. His average exit velocity in 2019 was 92 MPH in AAA, no one sane doubted that he could hit the ball hard. In the majors this year it was much the same tale as he had an average exit velocity of 92.8 MPH. His max exit velo in the majors was 110.3 MPH this year, compared to 110 flat per fangraphs in the minors last year. So how the heck did he post a .682 slugging percentage with a .306 ISO after never slugging over .444 in the minors?

It wasn’t by elevating more, as his groundball percentage was actually higher in the majors this year than it was in the minors last year. It wasn’t by pulling the ball more as he only pulled the ball 16.1% of the time on FB/LD this year. His power outbreak seems to be largely correlated to just better batted ball luck. His xSLG of .497 sounds considerably more accurate but even then I think it’s overestimating because he got “lucky” with his distribution clumping. It’s only average game power at best right now, probably below average. Despite, his plus or better raw power. It might mature into plus power but it’s certainly not there yet and I’m not comfortable projecting him to make that jump when he hasn’t done so in six seasons.

His hit tool, on the other hand, I’ll gladly call a plus tool. His 18% whiff rate is in the 88th percentile of major leaguers this season and that tracks with his swinging strike rates in the minors so I’ll believe that’s about where his true talent is. The bat to ball skills are elite and he has a spray hitting profile that lets him avoid being shifted against and lets his contact skills play up.

My issue holding him back from a higher grade is that I’m extremely skeptical of his ability to run high wOBAcon’s moving forward. His VBA’s are in the bottom quartile of major leaguers which has a strong correlation to both BABIP and wOBAcon. His sdLA (correlates to the same things) is a tick above average in his MLB sample but was a tick below in the minors. I believe in the approach and bat to ball skills but the rest of the profile is a bit too lacking for me to fully buy-in on his on-base skills. If he can learn to optimize his launch angles and put the ball in the air more than he can be one of the most dominant players in baseball but we’ve never seen him do that.

One thing we can not doubt for a second with Ke’Bryan is that he is a gold glove caliber third baseman. His arm might only be a plus but he has all the components to compete with Nolan Arenado for gold gloves every year. He’s an explosive fielder with above-average speed who possesses tremendous range and can cover the fielding deficiencies of his shortstop. His hands are clean and his infield actions are perfectly suave. He doesn’t have the arm adaptability to play shortstop as he struggles to make throws from lower arm slots but aside from that he is a great shortstop, moonlighting at third base.

The defensive acumen of Ke’Bryan Hayes creates a very high floor so that he only needs to be an average hitter to be a productive regular. His offensive potential makes him much more than an average regular. He has considerable raw power to go with a plus hit tool and elite defense. If Ke’Bryan Hayes can learn to elevate consistently and tap into his full offensive potential, you’re talking about a Nolan Arenado type superstar who does it all and is in the MVP conversation every single season. I’m very skeptical that he ever goes that far and think his power settles down in the average range and he posts like a 115 wRC+ annually with elite defense en route to 5 fWAR seasons per annum in his prime. Heck, that might be selling his value short as Arenado posted a 76 wRC+ and was still a 5.4 rWAR/162 player in 2020. He probably isn’t quite that absurd defensively but he’s not that that far off from it.

10. CF Dylan Carlson, St. Louis Cardinals

Dylan Carlson has the worst raw tools of any player on this list so far but his technique is so advanced and efficient that it lets him maximize their effect and even outperform them. His pro debut perhaps could have gone better but he still posted a 104 xwRC+ this year while drawing positive reviews defensively from all fielding metrics except OAA. He was sluggish out of the gate but after the first week of ineptitude- exactly to the day, he rounded into form, posting both a 115 xwRC+ and a 115 wRC+ over his last 96 PA and flashing the brilliance and upside that he possesses and could make Cardinals fans forget all about Randy Arozarena.

If you tried to construct the perfect swing in a lab, it would look very similar to the swing of Dylan Carlson. He has the same exact swing from both sides of the plate and it erases any potential platoon issues that he might have. His swing features a high leg kick that activates a hip hinge- it’s admittedly not the most stable hip hinge in the world and his will occasionally cause some of his power to leak out.

His ability to keep his torso back while activating his hips and firing forward to generate rotational velocity is incredible. He doesn’t have the most natural bat speed in the world in spite of the rotational ability but he keeps his base stable with a consistent body angle so it’s consistent bat speed and torque. He doesn’t over-rotate his hips and maintains his footing and body positioning through the follow through.

He has an incredibly steep VBA, averaging 37.1° in his MLB debut season this year and that leads to both him maximizing his spin impact as well as reducing his sdLA and popup rate. His .342 xBAcon in the minors last year was elite and it has a lot to do with him being incredible at optimizing his contact and launch angles.

He’s also incredible at optimizing his spray angles. His pull rates are high on flyballs and line-drives while simultaneously running a very slightly above-average opposite-field groundball rate, and posting a popup rate low than league average. It’s an elite combination of optimizing his launch angles and spray angles that is rarely seen outside of the Cardinals organization and it allows his hit tool to play up.

His bat to ball skills aren’t all that great right now but it’s easy to project growth on them. His hand to eye coordination is supreme and his pitch recognition is outstanding. The feel for the barrel of the bat and the ability to keep his hands inside so as to not prematurely extend and then release the barrel and send balls into another stratosphere is nearly unparalleled in all the minors leagues. As he matures, and gets used to big league caliber breaking balls, I think we’ll see his chase rates dwindle even further and him make more frequent contact in the zone.

His power isn’t as electric as his hit tool but it’s still an above average tool. He has no issues with elevation, only posting a 38% groundball rate in 2019 which lets him get to his considerable raw power consistently. He has big physicality and athleticism to punish baseball and he’ll generate power efficiently with a well-optimized swing that has a fluid kinetic chain. It’s not flashy power and he’ll never be hitting balls 120 MPH or even 115 MPH but he doesn’t have to. Juan Soto has never even hit a ball 114 MPH and is maybe on pace to be an All-Time Great Hitter. The consistent rotation and feel for launching the ball is the key to Carlson being so successful in the minors and moving forward at the major league level.

Dylan Carlson isn’t the greatest defender you’ll ever see in centerfield but he’s more than serviceable there. His speed is only slightly above average when underway but he has other ingredients that make me believe it is more than sufficient for him to wind up above average there. His ability to change directions on a dime and accelerate quickly would make up for poor route running but he’s actually good at tracking balls and finding the optimal path to them. His reaction times were lackluster at the MLB level this season after being much more impressive at the minor league level but it’s a small sample so I’m not too worried.

His arm is only average so he profiles better in left field than right if he can’t stick in centerfield. I think he has the chops to be an everyday centerfielder but he plays on a team with Harrison Bader so it’s difficult to foresee him playing too much there. Dylan Carlson’s offensive prowess is impressive and he offers a high floor due to both proximity and how advanced he is at the plate. I would be genuinely shocked if Dylan Carlson doesn’t wind up at least an average regular and I’m not at all unconvinced that he doesn’t have superstar potential due to his innate feel to hit and sky high baseball IQ.

11. SP Nate Pearson, Toronto Blue Jays

Nate Pearson is going to dominate opposing hitters on the mound, I have very little doubt over that fact. What separates him from Ian Anderson and MacKenzie Gore above him is that he has a history of health issues and there is concern that his stuff will hold up over a full season since we’ve never seen him do so. More so, some of the concern stems from the fact that he frequently pitched on five or six days rest rather than every fifth day like starters typically do in the majors in his breakout season last year and frequently only went four innings a start. Can he adjust to a normal schedule? I lean towards yes due to his repertoire depth and the quality of his stuff but it’s very possible the stuff diminishes in a traditional starting role.

Nate Pearson has perhaps the best fastball in the minors- I have it as the third-best but it is a very easily justifiable take to call it the best. His fastball is a very high velocity offering typically sitting 95–100 MPH and topping out at 102 MPH. It was much the same at the MLB level in a brief stint this year as it averaged 96.5 and topped out at 101.5 MPH. His velocity is the carrying trait for the fastball but it’s far from the only elite trait. He gets 6.9 feet of release extension on his fastball which lets the pitch play with an effective velocity of 97.5 MPH. His fastball also has a vertically oriented 12:45 spin axis and 97% spin efficiency which leads to him getting plus carry on his fastball. He has a relatively low vertical release height despite his huge frame and it leads to an optimal -4.5° VAA.

His changeup has an observed spin axis of 12:45 and has less than an inch of separation from the release of his fastball. Despite the same spin axis from the same release point, it has a completely different shape with an inferred spin axis of 2:00. His changeup moves in the same direction but a whole lot more than the fastball, despite looking like the same pitch. It doesn’t have the craziest amount of movement in the world but an 8 MPH gap and identical spin axis from the same release is elite deceptive ability. Nate Pearson has a hell of a fastball and slider but I won’t be at all shocked if his changeup winds up as his best pitch in the long run. It needs more polish and is inconsistent but when it’s on it looks to be elite.

His slider is his best secondary right now and probably will remain so moving forward. The slider is a hard pitch sitting in the mid to upper eighties with above average movement on both planes with his vertical movement leaning closer to plus. He sells it well and it destroys same-handed batters as it looks nearly indistinguishable out of the hand as you can see in the image below. It’s not quite at the level of the changeup in terms of deception but it is certainly deceptive and it has power movement as well. It had a 15.3% Swinging Strike rate in his pro debut and I expect further growth from it moving forward. He’s capable of throwing the pitch for strikes and that only further enhances it’s value. His slider had a 24.8% Called strike this year which was the fifth best of all sliders thrown 100+ times in 2020. That number probably won’t be sustained but he should be above average in that department. His slider is an elite pitch due to the shape, deception, and command he has over it.

His curveball is little more than a fringy fourth pitch that has lots of movement on both planes with a mediocre but efficient spin rate but I am more than a little skeptical that it will work at the big league level. The pitch is very easy to recognize out of the hand, in part because of the higher release, in part because of how much arc it has, and also because of the arm speed variation on it. It’s slow and easy to lay off on and hammer when it’s in the zone. The pitch has potential maybe if you squint but it is very much an occasional change of pace offering.

Nate Pearson has constantly had his command questioned by scouts due to his size but those concerns haven’t appeared to be warranted. He has a track record of throwing strikes at an above average rate in the minors. His walks were way up in the majors but he was still finding the strike zone at an average rate so I’m not at all concerned. His ability to locate his slider has me projecting slightly on the control but it’s not really an ambitious ask considering what he showed in the minors.

Nate Pearson’s batted ball profile in the minors was an easy plus but it faltered in the MLB this year. He has consistently run elite infield fly rates as you might expect from an elevated fastball with plus vertical movement while also avoiding linedrives aat an above average rate. He won’t ever be mistaken for Dallas Keuchel or anything but he is above average at avoiding hard contact- in spite of a rough MLB debut sample.

This year will be the most important one for Nate Pearson. The Blue Jays are looking to contend for a stacked AL East and he will be a pivotal part of that. The rotation needs to perform and if Pearson stumbles out of the gate and is terrible again, I think it’s likely they’ll shift him to a relief role where he should be completely dominant. If he is as electric as I expect then like Hader and the Brewers is he permanently relegated to a relief role? More so, I think that him developing as a reliever would stunt his changeup development as he would lean nearly exclusively on the dominant FB/SL combo. Pearson isn’t a finished product yet but he has all the talent to sit atop a rotation and be a true Ace in a few years if he gets the opportunity to develop correctly and health permitting.

12. 1B Andrew Vaughn, Chicago White Sox

Andrew Vaughn is going to have to hit a lot to justify a 60 FV as a first baseman with limited defensive value and he almost certainly will. His bat is the best in the entire minor leagues. I don’t even think it’s unlikely that he doesn’t wind up a DH most of the time. I still have a hard time justifying ranking him below twenty as a DH only if he is one. This dude is going to hit. He spent this season at the alternate site and the White Sox opted out of data sharing this year so we have little actionable new info to go off of but based on my looks in 2019 and some of the data from that season, he’s the best first-base prospect in the minors by the slimmest of margins over the more defensively apt Torkelson.

Andrew Vaughn’s feel for contact without coming at the expense of his ability to generate power is rare. Higher exit velocities has a strong correlation to higher whiff rates but Vaughn gets the best of both worlds. He had a mere 16% whiff rate in his pro debut which would rank in the 94th percentile of major leaguers last year. The bat to ball skills for as good as they are- not quite that good as he was in A ball facing somewhat inferior competition to his level for most of that; are not the only elite element of his hit tool.

He has a steep VBA that lets him maximize his damage on contact and helps him keep his launch angles tight. His barrel control is elite and he adjusts fantastically well by bending at the hip instead of extending his arms to get outside and losing some of the force he hits with. He drives the ball with authority away from the ground most of the time. Although he can get overly pull heavy at times, and might have some weakness to the shift that could drive down his BABIPs. His approach at the plate is a plus that might grow beyond that when we see it work at the big league level. He’s incredibly patient and understands the strike zone with great pitch recognition to boot.

Andrew Vaughn is a smaller guy who doesn’t look like a 40 home run hitter at only 5'11" but elite swing mechanics leads to elite power. His hip hinge is well established and obvious with a long stride that turns his plant leg into a stable pole to rotate around. His torso retracts as his hips rotate creating that deadly hip torso separation that is apparent to even the untrained eye. He releases and keeps his hands inside while bending at the hip to adjust to pitch location to avoid the power V position where he loses the ability to swing with his hips. His maintains his spinal angle until after the ball has left the bat.

The point of contact is early. So well he won’t ever have the highest launch angles due to a moderately flat swing plane, he generates elite implicit loft due to both his bat angle and the early contact point that lets the shape of the bat decide his launch angle as much as anything.

His raw power metrics are stunning as his average exit velocities are well above the big league average and he’s hit balls as hard as 116 MPH- roughly 90th percentile max exit velocity for big leaguers. He is able to control his body amazingly and stops himself from overrotating and letting any power leak out. All the fundamentals are in place for Andrew Vaughn to be one of the best hitters in the game in his prime.

He’s built like a tree trunk and has no agility and limited athleticism. He’s a well below-average runner by every measure and has very limited mobility in the field. His hands are steady but he lacks the ideal size or mobility for a first baseman and is a defensive liability at every position. I think he’ll hit enough that it won’t matter in the slightest but his value is almost entirely one-dimensional. He’s my favorite for AL Rookie of the Year this season and should make an impact for the White Sox from Opening Day onwards in the heart of their order.

13. 1B Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers

I know the Tigers for some horrible reason announced Spencer Torkelson as a third baseman but I am not quite so delusional. He’s a first baseman albeit a good one. He was easily the best hitter in the draft and one of the best in the entire minors. The Tigers took him first overall in spite of his defensive limitations and gave him a record setting signing bonus for a reason.

Torkelson can hit. His bat path is both short and extremely direct to the ball with little uneeded movement or extra length to his swing. He has some swing and miss issues on breaking balls and more so off-speed stuff down in the zone. There’s some belief in the industry that issue could be fixed by lengthening his stride. I don’t think it’s quite that simple. He also struggles with swing and miss some even on fastballs at times but his swing and miss issues aren’t all that important because Torkelson is going to be a BABIP monster.

Torkelson doesn’t really believe in groundballs. He has an elite feel for elevating the baseball and produces both implicit and explicit loft with his swing. He is elite at putting the barrel to the ball and doesn’t ever swing over the top of pitches. His vertical bat angle is steep- reportedly over 35° on average and it only helps the BABIPs. His prodigious power wouldn’t affect his BABIP on groundballs but it does lead to high averages on flyballs and line drives which he hits regularly.

Spencer Torkelson’s power is breathtaking. I know I’m starting to sound like a broken record but his swing is the definition of efficacy from a generating power standpoint. He strides to coil his load and twists the torso back as hips fire, there’s a very obvious delay in even non-high-speed video going frame by frame from the point where his hips first to when his torso does. His rotation is controlled and powerful. He’ll generate extraordinary torque and unleash it on the baseball. Torquelson generates so much torque it might as well be his last name. He’s a very strong and physical human being and understands how to apply that physicality to the baseball. He posts exit velocities that make your eyes pop out of your skull and your jaw drop when you see those towering flyballs over the fence. It’s all fields power and it’s loud. Even when he mishits the ball and pops it up, it’s still routinely triple-digit exit velos. Torkelson is going to hit for power and a lot of it.

Spencer Torkelson’s approach at the plate is incredible and it mitigates the swing and miss risk. He showcases elite pitch recognition and an understanding of the strike zone that is well beyond his years. He’ll spit on most breaking balls and swing at any fastball in the zone. He’ll frequently run double digit walk rates in his prime and run extremely low chase rates. Unlike a Daniel Vogelbach or something, he’ll complement that with above-average zone-swing rates.

His defense almost certainly won’t be good at third base if he actually does play there but it’s above average at first. He’s mobile relative to other first baseman and has enough range to make some more difficult plays. We haven’t seen much to judge his arm strength on in the infield but it’s likely somewhere around average.

Spencer Torkelson is going to hit a lot and is arguably the best first base prospect in the game. I have behind Andrew Vaughn largely due to proximity and what I perceive as a higher offensive ability but it’s very slight. Torkelson has the potential to be one of or even the best first baseman in the game and should be an anchor in the middle of the order for the Tigers for years to come as soon as late next year, but more realistically 2022.

14. LF Jarred Kelenic, Seattle Mariners

Man is it a good time to be a Mariners fan. The future is brighter than ever with two of the best prospects in the sport in Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic. Jarred Kelenic was a Mets first-round pick in 2018 and was shipped off to the Mariners in the win-win trade for star closer Edwin Diaz and an aging but still productive Robinson Cano with the Mariners footing most of the bill. He instantly became a fan favorite as he torched the minors leagues all the way up to AA in his first full season. He likely would have been up last year without the pandemic shutting things down.

His hit tool is in some ways, an easy plus tool at first glimpse but I only have it as above-average. His swing is explosive. He has a long stride with a powerful foot plant and does a good job keeping his hands back without disrupting the kinetic chain of his swing. His hands are quick and explosive as is the bat itself and he’ll keep the barrel in the strike zone. He’s short to the ball and it gives him some margin for error. He has shown an advanced feel for squaring balls up and pulverizing them to his pull side. His bat to ball skills are somewhat unrefined but he shows an advanced feel for tracking pitches and an innate understanding of the strike zone that avoids some veterans. He has some contact issues against spin still but recognizing it is always a good first step.

His launch angle optimization needs to be refined but he’s still too young for that to be a real major concern yet and he was facing advanced competition all throughout his minor league career thus far- plus it’s more average than bad as is. His VBA’s aren’t anything extreme but they do visibly appear to be above average. His swing is smooth and simple so I’m less worried about his timing getting thrown out of whack than I am with most comparable prospects and I do believe he’s going to make contact right away at least a little and within a few years have plus contact rates.

What really gives me pause about his hit tool however is his vulnerability to the shift. In 2019 the MLB average pull rate on Groundballs was 55.9%, Jarred Kelenic pulled 72.4% of them. If he were in the MLB that rate would be the worst of all hitters in the MLB with at least 100 groundballs in 2019. Of all players with at least as many groundballs as Kelenic, the next worst hitter was Eugenio Suarez at 66%. It’s a major problem. Pulled groundballs had a .169 BABIP against in 2020. That number drops to .131 with a shift that should always be on against someone as pull heavy as he is. That is not going to result in a lot of hits on the ground. It’s going to create lots of double-plays that kill rallies and strands runners. His 42% groundball rate is slightly below-average, especially relative to his age but not so much so that he can just ignore the fact that not very many groundballs will be hits for him. José Ramírez proves an Uber pull heavy approach can work with elite pitch selection but Kelenic likely won’t have the same elite bat to ball skills or pitch selection to be José Ramírez. Also even José Ramírez pulls groundballs 7% less.

On the other hand, that extremely pull heavy tendency also translates to balls in the air where it is an exceptionally good thing to be as pull heavy as he is. He pulled flyballs 50.5% of the time in 2019. If we pretend that he did that in the majors instead, there are only two better seasons in that regard- both of whom were committed by 509 career home run hitter, Gary Sheffield. Pulled flyballs wind up over the fence seven times as often as those hit to the opposite field and Kelenic is the king of pulling flyballs.

His swing is optimized to hit for power. He’ll coil his load with a long stride at foot strike and keep his hands back until his hips cross the plane of the plate before slingshotting himself forwards and throwing the entirety of his strength at the ball. His power metrics are breathtaking. Despite facing competition four years his senior, Kelenic posted an average exit velocity of 90 MPH- 2.5 MPH over the big league average. His rotowire hard hit rate was ~80th percentile among all minor leaguers. His average flyball distance was 95th percentile among all players who didn’t use the juiced ball in AAA. This is elite power potential- both on technique and metrics.

Jarred Kelenic is a power over hit prospect with a still above-average hit tool as well. He rotates exceedingly well and knows how to stop his motion to stop power from leaking out his front and squandering his movement or breaking the kinetic chain. His swing is technically sound and engineered for the express purpose of pulverizing baseballs which he does with his remarkably strong core and quads. His swing plane is optimized for generating lift without selling out for power. This is a dude who will absolutely mash at the big league level even if it’s a little more homer or bust than antticipated.

A large part of why he is so pull heavy is that his contact point is so far out in front of the plate. Theoretically, he could move it in and his issues would be fixed but it would just create more problems even if it did address some of the hit concerns. His power is only as good as it is due to his late contact point allowing him to maximize his bat speed and hit balls with force. It plays above his natural grades due to his extreme pull tendencies just as his hit plays below it. There is a chance for plus or better power or plus or better hit from Kelenic I’m just not confident in both at the same time. He will have to choose what he wants to prioritize and remain frustratingly flawed in the other department. I prefer the power-hitting Kelenic but the hit first guy he was in high school was great too.

According to a friend who has sources in the Astros organization, they use deadlift and level length as their top two measures of raw power. Well we don’t have outright deadlift numbers for Kelenic, we do have video of him doing two repetitions of squats with a 500lb bar. According to google, the average person can squat 90% of their deadlift which would put Kelenic in special territory in terms of pure raw strength. We have Carlos Correa on record saying he can’t deadlift more than 500lbs. We know Bryce Harper deadlifts 550lbs and Kelenic is right alongside them theoretically. It is absolutely possible that I am vastly underselling his power here. His squat of 500lbs for two repetitions, Strengthlevel.com says that is in in the 97th percentile for all lifters at his listed weight of 190lbs. Even if we pretended he was 50 pounds heavier he still is in the 90th percentile. Kelenic has short levers but it is absolutely possible I am underselling his raw power by only putting a 65 on it and maybe it would stay intact if he moved his contact point so we truly could have the best of both worlds.

His glove isn’t anything special in centerfield- heck it probably isn’t even playable there long term. He can play there for now and will maybe get a chance to stick there if something were to happen to Kyle Lewis but his routes are too unrefined for the position and he lacks the blinding speed to make up for those mistakes. He’s explosive and can bring back home runs with his jumps off the wall but he’ll fail to convert outs on line drives in the gap or balls he needs a long pursuit to get to.

I like him best in a corner- probably left because of Julio. His arm is a plus attribute with a super quick catch and release motion and his throws are frequently on target. He doesn’t get a ton of carry on his throws but his accuracy and how quick he makes the throws balance out the lack of elite throw power. According to Eric Longenhagen there is some 1B/DH sentiment in the industry which I can understand but I still think he’ll be about average in left. It’s possible, however, that he will fall down the defensive spectrum that far as he continues to push his body’s upper limits and add more and more muscle mass. His work ethic and workout warrior label is somewhat of a double-edged sword. The offensive bar for a corner outfielder only guy is extremely high and that’s why I have him outside of the top ten.

His speed is above average despite a bulky build and thick lower half with rare explosiveness and baserunning prowess that lets it play up to a plus tool. He’s aggressive on the basepaths and could steal upwards of twenty bases a year at the big league level.

Kelenic has loud tools that will play at the game’s highest level. His athleticism from a baseball standpoint is present and he has a great stroke. His work ethic and mindset are those of a superstar and he is remarkably mature for his age. He has some questions left to answer and I think some questions will remain unanswered but it’s still undoubtedly an above-average regular with all-star potential. There are concerns that have me considerably lower than most, however, and I think he settles in as more of a good left fielder than a great one.

15. SP Max Meyer, Miami Marlins

Max Meyer this high? Have you lost your mind? Yes, I really have Max Meyer as a top fifteen prospect overall and the second-best prospect in the 2020 draft. Oh, and the best Marlins prospect. I’m more convinced this ranking is too low than too high. Max Meyer is fairly raw but the upside is astronomical and he has the immediate fallback option of a shutdown closer.

His fastball has the potential to be the best fastball in the MLB. He’ll operate in the 94–99 MPH range- an exact average of 97.4 according to his college’s published numbers and hit as high as 101 MPH and he maintains that velocity deep into ballgames. He gets 6.7 of release extension on the pitch out of his slight frame which adds roughly 1.3 MPH to his perceived velocity of it bringing him up to about 98.6 MPH. Jacob deGrom is the only MLB starter who had a higher perceived velocity in 2020. He’ll throw from a low 3/4 arm slot that gives him a lower vertical release point than usual and optimizes his vertical approach angle. Oh, and his fastball had a spin rate of 2515 RPMs on average in 2020 no biggie.

There are some flaws to the fastball, however, which lead to it playing down and projecting below the 80 grade upside it actually possesses. He has a tendency to pronate on release slightly which leads to the ball cutting and his spin efficiencies are very poor. Due to the sky-high spin rate and low vertical release the fastball still has only slightly below average vMOV and misses bats at a high clip at the top of the zone. The pronation on the release is a fixable flaw and it’s worth noting that he’s admitted to not being big on analytics or using a rapsodo or edgetronic and the like to train before so this isn’t an issue he’s failed to adjust. He’s never tried to adjust it. All the intangibles are there for his fastball to be incredible once he improves his spin efficiency and stops pronating.

His slider is inarguably the best slider in the last draft and the best pitch in the minors with some scouts referring to it as the best slider they’ve seen in twenty years. It has elite raw spin- 2756 RPMs on average in 2020. He’ll throw it between 88–93 MPH and averaged 91.6 MPH in 2020. It’s a gyro slider with limited vertical movement and a sharp late horizontal break to it that misses bats. It’s more cutterish than true power slider but you can’t argue with the effectiveness of the pitch. It looks identical to the fastball out of the hand before taking souls. The pitch is very similar to the slider of Jacob deGrom and I don’t use that comparison lightly.

His command over the pitch can not be understated at all. He threw the pitch for a strike 68% of the time in 2020. Matt Wisler led the MLB in Strike% with his slider min 100 sliders at 46%. Second place was Robert Stephenson at 37.5%. Matt Wisler’s number is the MLB record in the pitch tracking era. Quality of competition and all but, it’s not even in the same stratosphere as Meyer. The ability to spot the pitch for strikes in the zone is exceedingly rare and terrifying for opposing hitters when they can’t just choose not to swing when they manage to recognize it.

I do wonder if improving his fastball spin efficiency could hurt his slider as right now the comparable spin axis and spin efficiency lead to them being spin mirrors of the other. Their movement patterns aren’t mirrored but the spin looks almost identical and doesn’t reveal what pitch is which until it’s far too late. They still tunnel well regardless in all likelihood but spinning in opposite directions and at different efficiencies could theoretically hurt the slider. That might be the only reason I can find to not call the slider an 80 grade pitch. The slider works against hitters of both handedness even if more so against right handed bats.

Max Meyer’s changeup gets a lot of flack because his usage of it is infrequent but I am not at all unconvinced that it’s a plus pitch. Neither are the Marlins for that matter as Geoff DeGroot had this to say about it “We weren’t really sure what we were getting with his changeup because he really didn’t need it in college. But he came in and showed plus feel for that pitch. It’s a weapon. It was really, really encouraging.”

The changeup has flashed elite movement at times but has been plagued by inconsistent movement. That being said, I don’t think he needs much movement for the pith to work. He throws the pitch at 86 MPH with an average spin rate of 1950 RPMs. The pitch is thrown with elite arm speed that makes it look like a fastball and it comes out of the same tunnel as the fastball and has a mirrored movement pattern to the cutting fastball. The deception is elite and that will always be the most important thing on changeups.

All that being said, I do have some slight concern over how his stride is roughly four inches longer on the changeup than his other offerings. The more astute hitters you see at higher levels could use that to recognize when he is using the changeup. As I said, that’s a minor concern as there are successful changeups like Zac Gallen’s for example with variation in stride length that tips the pitch but Gallen also has elite movement on his changeup. It’s also worth noting that Meyer has run reverse splits every year of his college career which is the antithesis of what a cut-fastball/slider pitcher usually is so it’s possible we’ve just been underrating his changeup that’s always been there for a long time.

It feels incredibly important to point out that he is now a Marlin and the Marlins have a track record recently of developing plus changeups. Sixto Sánchez, Pablo López, Trevor Rogers, and Edward Cabrera being some of the most recent and prominent examples. Granted, their track record with fixing fastballs is nearly nonexistent so it’s a double-edged sword. They could always just send him to driveline for that though, as fixing that is their specialty.

His command is lambasted by some people for reasoning that I can’t find any basis for. His delivery is optimized for generating velocity with extreme scapular retraction and he gets elite hip shoulder separation. His entire body is involved in throwing hard and it leads to elite velocity despite a slight frame. His delivery might look to have effort but even if it does he repeats his delivery well if you care about that. There are questions over if he can survive a full length season but that isn’t a command concern. He’s consistently thrown strikes throughout his college career and can throw all three pitches for strikes consistently. His athleticism is off the charts and it makes it easy to project command growth even if you think it’s below average right now. It’s plus command as far as I’m concerned.

His batted ball profile has consistently been elite at the collegiate level. His groundball rates are well above-average in large part due to the cutting action on his fastball. He’s avoided line drives at an even better rate as well. It’s only above average because I think cutting out the cut action will kill his groundball rates even if it boosts his popout rates but it’s only a hair from a plus.

The lone question I have with Max Meyer and the lone thing holding him back from being maybe the best pitcher on this list- probably second to only Ian Anderson; is that we haven’t seen him pitch a full season yet. Once we see his stuff hold up throwing every fifth day for 20+ starts a year he’ll skyrocket up this list. I fully expect Max Meyer to be the best pitching prospect in baseball in a year's time and I expect him to be approaching the MLB around then too. His slider would be a nuclear bomb out of the pen right now but it’s best for Meyer if he’s allowed to develop as a starter and improve his entire arsenal first. Max Meyer if he doesn’t have the stamina to pitch in the rotation can still easily reach a 55 FV as one of the best relievers in the game. That combination of upside and relief floor is incredibly valuable and rare- especially for a recent draftee.

16. SS Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals

There are reports from the alternate site that if they are true, would mean that Bobby Witt Jr. is probably the best prospect in the entire game. That is a gargantuan if as the Royals opted out of the data sharing agreement for the alternate site so the only sources on his progress there we have are biased ones from the Royals own staff.

The Royals think he has a chance to break camp with the team and that his hit tool made strides to the point where it should be considered at least a plus. Supposedly, he has a real two-strike approach now and his plate discipline is much improved. The few concerns people irrationally have if he can stick at shortstop were apparently erased and he showcased elite raw power. Oh, and he added ten pounds of muscle while also adding seven inches to his vertical which is 40 inches now, and also somehow managed to improve his ten yard splits by 0.09 seconds. Oh, I almost forgot, there’s a 141 MPH running start swing from Bobby Wittt Jr. the Royals shared on Twitter. It’s without making contact, likely a very light bat and a running start but that still sounds impossible. You can forgive me for being skeptical that he managed to do all that behind the curtain of the alternate site this season. If he did all that he’s the best prospect in baseball by a mile but I’m extremely skeptical he did even half that with only the Royals word and Bobby Witt Jr.’s personal trainer declaring it.

Now onto what we knew of Bobby Witt Jr. before this year’s weirdness. Bobby Witt Jr. has been one of the most tooled up prospects in baseball since he was drafted. His one deficiency has been the hit tool which grades out as somewhere in the ballpark of average in my looks. He struggles with breaking balls out of the zone or at least did and had serious whiff and approach issues during both the summer circuit and his first taste of pro ball. He has advanced hand-eye coordination so it’s not difficult to project on his bat to ball skills progressing even if I’m scared to hedge on it.

That being said, even with some minor swing and miss issues, I still think he can be an average hitter. His hands are electric and put him in a position to turn on inside pitches and send them a mile. His hips are adaptable and he’ll contort his body to get outside while maintaining his hands positioning and making solid contact. He regularly squares balls up when he makes contact. He is a spray hitter who hits balls more frequently to the opposite side of the field then he pulls them. His pull GB% was particularly low in his pro debut and something to take heart in. The approach is/was raw and he is a bit of a free swinger but we’ve seen players succeed with horrible approaches before and I don’t think it’s impossible he can refine his approach as he allegedly did at the alternate site.

Bobby Witt Jr. hits the ball hard. There is no disputing that. His swing is optimal for generating power with him checking all the usual boxes required for keeping the kinetic chain engaged throughout his swing. He rotates exceptionally and stops his hips from over-rotating. His point of contact is out in front of the plate which limits his implicit loft but helps his power metrics since he has more time to build up bat speed. That means it will be more crucial for him to revise his bat path and add loft to his swing in order to tap into his considerable raw power. He already hits the ball harder than most big leaguers and he’s only going to get stronger. If he can figure out how to elevate it will be elite power, if not it should still be a plus.

Bobby Witt Jr. is one of the best athletes in the minors and you can see it from just watching him at shortstop where he very likely to stick. Bobby Witt Jr. is an easy plus runner and possibly elite who accelerates near instantly and can change his direction. He’s explosive with an exceptional first step that leads to tremendous range. He has good footwork and he is capable of making throws from all platforms with plus arm strength as well. He is a lock to stick at shortstop unless he grows into a lot more power and loses his speed. I think he should be a plus defender there who can maybe win the occasional gold glove.

Bobby Witt Jr. is going to be an impact player on the back of his shortstop defense and power but he could be a superstar if the hit tool comes around. That might have happened at the alternate site this year or it might not have, even ignoring the alleged progress this year, he has too exciting of raw tools and athleticism to not be an impact player. There is a lot of refinery needed for Bobby Witt Jr. needed to achieve the star outcome I’m projecting on him but he’s a grinder with an incredible work ethic and the tools needed to make it happen.

17. SP Luis Patiño, Tampa Bay Rays

Luis Patiño went from San Diego to Tampa Bay this offseason as the centerpiece in the Blake Snell trade. Luis Patiño has long been well regarded among scouts and made his MLB debut this season at only twenty years of age. Like Pearson, he didn’t hit out of the park but he flashed upside that should make you incredibly excited for his future.

The raw stuff jumps off the page the moment you see him throw his first pitch as that pitch will usually be a first pitch heater at 99 MPH that sits 94–97 and he’s hit as fast as 101 out of the pen. The pitch has above average vertical movement but is one dimensional in that it only has vertical movement with a bit of natural cut at times to it this season only that makes it play down.

This is likely intentional on the Padres part, as Larry Rothschild thinks that cut is a good thing and already broke Paddack by making him cut the ball. The Rays have a track record of fixing this issue as they did with both Fairbanks and Glasnow recently so I don’t expect this new trouble born of Rothschild to stick around now that he’s free of the Padres and with the Rays.

His heater had an average spin rate of 2468 in 2020 and he had poor spin efficiency on it at only 84% which caused his fastbal