London Playbook PM: From a Rwanda dream to a Rwanda nightmare
Andrew McDonald
What's driving the day in Westminster. Politics and policymaking in the UK capital.
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POLITICO
Good afternoon. This is Andrew McDonald.

THURSDAY’S CHEAT SHEET

— Rishi Sunak tried to rally his MPs behind the Rwanda plan with a morning press conference.

— But both Tory centrists and right wingers reckon his scheme doesn’t cut the mustard.

— Boris Johnson faced some awkward questions about Partygate as his evidence concluded at the COVID Inquiry

— David Cameron continued the hard sell on Ukraine in Washington.

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TOP OF THE NEWSLIST

SUNAK’S NIGHTMARE WEEK: Tory MPs are getting a bit antsy — and Rishi Sunak’s press conference doesn’t seem to have smoothed things over.

Back me or don’t: After telling his MPs “unite or die” over Rwanda, Rishi Sunak faced down the critics at this morning’s press conference — but amid fevered talk of elections, swerved hard away from that particular precipice.

In the room: Dan Bloom texts in with presser details from Downing Street: the PM said Tuesday’s vote on his new Rwanda Bill won’t be treated as a matter of confidence and dismissed talk of calling a snap poll if he loses, saying: “I want to finish the job.” “The difference between them and me is an inch,” Sunak said of his Tory critics.

Tell that to: Robert Jenrick, whose resignation letter said hope had triumphed over experience. Sunak insisted the ex-immigration minister was “simply not right, actually” and it’ll be the “toughest anti-illegal immigration law ever.” More via PA.

But but but: It looks like MPs of the Tory right and left aren’t exactly feeling better about things.

Being hit from both sides part I: A Tory insider from the right of the party told Playbook PM that Tory whips were doing a “ring round” with MPs to try to shore up support for the PM — and said it was “not looking good.” They added: “If the star chamber goes south, they’re in real bother.”

On that note: The “star chamber” will pass its verdict by Tuesday, ERG Chairman Mark Francois told GB News.

Being hit from both sides part II: The One Nation Caucus of centrist Tory MPs are “nervous” and “raising concerns” over the legislation, a figure close to the group told Playbook’s Noah Keate. The One Nationers have their own rival one man “star chamber” made up of … the former Solicitor General Edward Garnier, who has been briefing its MPs on the contents. The group will issue a full statement in the next few days — as it stands, it sounds like it will be a critical one. Garnier has been criticizing the legislation in a BBC PM interview set to air shortly

That seems non-ideal considering … The One Nation Caucus sounded a lot less critical when its on the record statement responding to the bill hit journalist inboxes last night.

They think it’s all over: One Tory MP told the Times’ Aubrey Allegretti that they “think it’s over” and their party is going to implode.

Of course: There are lots of Tory MPs that aren’t part of either of these groups that sit on the Tory Party’s respective right or left wings. As part of his efforts to stride a middle path on the issue, the support of these MPs will be critical for Sunak.

The big problem: Sunak’s decision not to make Tuesday’s vote a confidence matter gives the angry MPs the green — or maybe amber — light to vote against it. With plenty of MPs noising off privately and publicly — and rumors swirling about letters to 1922 Chair Graham Brady (who oversees votes of no confidence) — it looks like many might take that option, meaning Tuesday’s vote might be in real danger. Only 28 rebels are needed for it to have a chance of failing. Hence the whipping “ring round” mentioned above.

Though do remember: Big rebellions at second reading are very rare — and being disgruntled doesn’t equate to a vote against. Watch the star(chamber)s.

Lads, please! POLITICO’s Esther Webber texts in to say Conservative Chair Richard Holden read the riot act to rebellious Tory MPs at the press gallery lunch. He said that his angry colleagues “really need to decide whether they’re interested in being in government” or whether “they want they would prefer to sit in opposition and watch the Labour Party”. He added that “any sensible Conservative MP should sit back and reflect on where we are”.

That’s a take: Holden also said he believes the Tories can hold every seat they won in 2019 and make gains. And Playbook PM believes Scotland will win the Euros.

Blame them: Back at the press conference, the PM repeatedly suggested those pesky Rwandans would’ve prevented the Bill from ignoring any more human rights laws. “Going any further would mean that Rwanda would collapse the scheme,” he said.

Look over there! Sunak said the “real question” was not for the New Conservatives, or the ERG, or the Common Sense Group, or the One Nation Group, but … Labour, who’ll vote against on Tuesday. Try telling that to the press and, well, most of SW1, who’ll be watching to see if 28 Tory rebels materialize.

Right back at you: A Labour official told Playbook PM it is “mad” that Sunak is trying to turn the issue on to the opposition. “The Tories have a majority in parliament so it will be up to them what legislation they pass … they need to take responsibility for solving the chaos and crisis they’ve created instead of trying to blame everyone else,” the official said.

Rattled-off: A defensive Sunak was in the clinical No. 9 press room for just 20 minutes, including his statement and questions from the BBC, ITV, Sky, Mail, Sun and GB News. In the front row were his new migration three amigos — Home Secretary James Cleverly “hmm”-ing along, sat next to newly-split-off Illegal Immigration Minister Michael Tomlinson and Legal Migration Minister Tom Pursglove. The pair were brought into government in Sunak’s mini-reshuffle this morning. No. 10 Deputy Chief of Staff Will Tanner, Cleverly’s Spad Hudson Roe and Downing Street spokespeople Max Blain and Camilla Marshall also lurked at the back.

Return of the seven bins: Sunak reverted to his daytime TV presenter style, listing the type of legal claims people could make with the word “blocked.” “Spurious human rights claims? You’d better believe we’ve blocked those too,” he chirped. Clip of what is surely the next CCHQ leaflet here.

Legal verdict: Barrister Alexander Horne has written another Rwanda take for the Spectator, this time nosed on Sunak’s legislation. He writes that even if it gets through MPs, it’s unlikely to survive contact with the Lords … and would then “leave the courts in a quandary” — though he says it wouldn’t be wise for the courts to challenge parliament’s sovereignty.

Podcaster verdict: George Osborne, clearly loving the drama he helped put in motion, told his podcast that the “Tory civil wars have completely reopened.” Did they ever close?

BYE BYE BORIS

DON’T BE SAD IT’S OVER, BE HAPPY IT HAPPENED: Boris Johnson has just shuffled away from Paddington after completing his evidence at the COVID Inquiry — and he said he was “rather sad” it was all over.

Having the last word: The final exchanges were … odd. In a lengthy monologue once all the questions had been asked, Johnson offered tips to the dumbstruck inquiry Chair Heather Hallett on how he thinks the inquiry could be improved. He urged the inquiry to look more at the origins of the virus.

Hitting back: “Mr Johnson, you set my terms of reference,” Hallett deadpanned — capping off two rather bizarre days at the COVID Inquiry.

Indeed: Johnson’s much-anticipated evidence has largely been knocked out of the headlines — and the tops of POLITICO newsletters — by the events encircling his frenemy in No. 10. Fewer journos turned up for his second day of evidence, while even most of the protesters who encircled the venue yesterday didn’t come along today. Plenty of Westminster types freely admit they haven’t been paying it much attention.

There was one standout moment: The inquiry’s top interrogator Hugo Keith came armed with some new Johnson WhatsApps about Partygate — and in typical showman style he brought them up right at the end of his time grilling Johnson.

An admission — in hindsight: “In retrospect we all should have told people — above all [former comms chief] Lee Cain — to think about their behavior in No. 10 and how it would look. But now we must smash on,” the inquiry revealed Johnson texted Simon Case in December 2021 after the scandal had erupted.

He also … told Case in the texts he was “really sorry” for the “grief” the scandal was causing. Keith pressed Johnson on whether this shows he didn’t care about the angry reaction that then erupted.

To which: Johnson launched into an ultra-emotional defense of his conduct — and insisted he did care and knew from his ICU experience “what an appalling disease this is.” The Telegraph clipped it up.

Also clipped up: The BBC’s sign language interpreter was fun to watch when discussion turned to Partygate (via the BBC’s Luxmy Gopal).

Fun and interesting, but … What does Partygate have to do withlearning lessons for future pandemics?

On a related note: Johnson admitted that Dominic Cummings’ Barnard Castle trip was a “bad moment” for public faith in his government’s handling of the pandemic.

Otherwise: There wasn’t a new smoking gun that either proved Johnson right or proved beyond doubt his culpability — and those who did watch his two days of hearings will go away holding the same views they already did about hiscapacity for chaotic governance and / or how he got the big calls right.

But but but: There were still some other important spots of news to emerge from the still slouching big dog. POLITICO’s Bethany Dawson helped gather some of the other best ones.

The botched second lockdown: Johnson was strongly advised by his science advisers to “go a bit harder” with restrictions as the virus surged in the fall of 2020. He opted not to at first and went with tiers — he told the inquiry he “agonized” over the decision. Lots of other witnesses have said lives could have been saved if the U.K. went quicker the second time around.

(Don’t) let it rip: The former PM directly denied considering a “let it rip” strategy in the fall, despite diary entries from Patrick Vallance suggesting he had argued for such a strategy in meetings. Johnson said he was just voicing the counterarguments and dismissed what he called accounts “culled from people’s jottings.” There’s that famous BoJo turn of phrase.

Another apology: Close to the end of his evidence, Johnson apologized to those living with long COVID for offending them with his comments on the illness. The inquiry has seen that he likened long COVID to Gulf War syndrome. “I wish to again recognize the hurt that those words must have caused,” he told the inquiry. Not sure if the apology worked, though, with the KC representing long COVID patients then accidentally calling Johnson “Mr COVID.”

Gently pushing Rishi under the bus: He said he assumed that Sunak’s Eat Out To Help Out scheme had been cleared by the government’s scientists — and was surprised to later learn that it hadn’t. Earlier evidence seen by the inquiry has shown that none of Patrick Vallance, Chris Whitty or Matt Hancock knew it was happening until it was announced.

COMING ATTRACTION: Sunak and his Eat Out To Help Out scheme will come under scrutiny Monday, when the PM will face the inquiry for a full day of evidence from 10.30 a.m.

Now for a conspiracy theory: Nadine Dorries reckons Robert Jenrick resigned to knock Johnson “doing extremely well” at the inquiry off the front pages. “I just ask the questions of others who know the answers,” she says.

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DRIVETIME DEBRIEF

CAM ON TOUR: Foreign Secretary David Cameron gave the hard sell on continued Western support for Ukraine at the Aspen Security Forum in Washington D.C. this afternoon. Cameron, in full TED Talk mode as he roamed the stage, said it was fair for politicians on both sides of the Atlantic to ask why they should focus on “challenges overseas” when there’s so much kicking off at home.

Oi Vlad: But the ex-prime minister — on tour in D.C. just after the U.S. Senate moved to block fresh funding for Ukraine — said Vladimir Putin’s invasion of the country marked “the worst example of one state invading and wrecking the sovereignty of another state that we’ve seen since the Second World War.”

Size matters: He talked up help for Ukraine as a good investment, and said the collective economic might of the West can easily outpace Russia if it shows unity. And he even managed to distance himself from his old Chinese drinking mate as he did so. “We should pass this money to the Ukrainians, we should back them and make sure that it’s Putin that loses — because if that money doesn’t get voted through, there are only two people that will be smiling: one of them is Vladimir Putin in Russia,” Cam said. “The other one is Xi Jinping in Beijing.”

Not feeling the Christmas spirit: “And I don’t know about you, but I wouldn’t want to give either of those people a Christmas present,” Cameron added.

Still to come: Cameron will hold a joint press conference with his U.S. counterpart Antony Blinken at 8.45 p.m. tonight.

Plus: The foreign secretary faces a grilling at Bill Cash’s European Scrutiny committee Tuesday.

BIG NEWS BURIED BY RWANDA AND BORIS: Foreign Office Minister Leo Docherty told the Commons this morning that private conversations between politicians and media figures had been compromised by Russia’s FSB. He said that Russia’s broader campaign had “not been successful,” even though some private conversations of high profile politicians and civil servants had been compromised [thinking emoji].

Not saying: Asked about the claims during his press conference, Sunak declined to say whether he had been targeted. POLITICO’s John Johnston has a write-up.

DUTCH DIPLOMACY: Sunak welcomes Dutch PM Mark Rutte to No. 10 this evening — they’ll be discussing illegal migration, a No. 10 spokesperson said.

MORE UNHAPPY PARTY CHAT: Former Tory leadership contender Rehman Chishti has accused Sunak of having “written off” engagement with Muslims for “political purposes,” in a punchy interview with PoliticsHome’s Adam Payne. He said Sunak isn’t taking Islamophobia seriously enough, and that he has been trying without avail to get a meeting with Sunak to discuss the issue for more than a year.

NO FREEZE FRAZER: The BBC’s license fee will rise by 6.7 percent in April after two years of freezes, Culture Secretary Lucy Frazer announced in the Commons. The fee was set to rise by 9 percent but Frazer went for the smaller rise — details from Sky here.

ELECTORAL DYSFUNCTION: Transparency group Spotlight on Corruption has written to the National Crime Agency asking them to take bigger role in upholding U.K. election laws because of the “grave risks” of dark money and foreign interference, my colleague John Johnston reports in this week’s London Influence.

MONEY MONEY MONEY: The Tories received almost five times as many private donations as Labour between July and September, the Electoral Commission’s figures show. The Conservatives’ were bolstered by a huge £10 million bequest from the late (Lord) John Sainsbury.

Still strugglin’: The Electoral Commission’s figures show that the finance investigation-hit SNP didn’t declare a single private donation during the last quarter. Your Playbook author wrote about the party’s difficulties in persuading the living to part with cash back in the summer.

Also strugglin’: Jacob Rees-Mogg’s investment firm is winding down, the Telegraph reports.

SOCIAL AFFAIRS

THAT’S FASHION: Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris opted for a velvet smoking jacket in his morning round. (h/t Christian Calgie).

That’s fashion II: Don’t worry if you’re struggling for gift ideas for your nearest and dearest — DSIT have released their own Christmas jumper.

SWEARING ON THE TELLY: The Tories’ social media team have joined in with the fun after BBC presenter Maryam Moshiri was caught flipping the bird on the news. She apologized for the “silly joke” here.

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AROUND THE WORLD

ISRAEL-GAZA LATEST: Israel will open the Kerem Shalom crossing with Gaza to inspect humanitarian aid trucks for the first time since the outbreak of the war, Israeli official Elad Goren said — the Guardian has a live blog. It comes as Christos Christou, International President of Doctors Without Borders, said the situation in Gaza has “gone far beyond the humanitarian crisis” — Sky News has further details.

IN GREECE: Turkey and Greece signed a joint declaration to pursue good neighborly relations as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited Greece — Al Jazeera has more.

IN RUSSIA: Imprisoned Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny urged Russians to vote for anyone but incumbent President Vladimir Putin in next March’s election, saying Putin will use the election as an “approval of the war” against Ukraine — my colleague Laura Hülsemann has a writeup.

IN VENEZUELA: Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro ordered the creation of a new map of the country including the disputed territory of Guyana’s Essequibo region. Guyana’s President Irfaan Ali said he had initiated “precautionary measures” to protect the region — via ITV News.

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TONIGHT’S MEDIA ROUND

LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News (5 p.m.), the BBC News at Six and Channel 4 News (7 p.m.) all lead on the political reaction to the government’s Rwanda asylum bill.

Tom Swarbrick at Drive (LBC, until 6 p.m.): Liberal Democrat Leader Ed Davey and Tory MP David Simmonds (both 5.05 p.m.) … former head of MI6’s Russia desk Christopher Steele (5.35 p.m.).

BBC PM (Radio 4, 5 p.m.): Tory MP Bob Seely … Tory peer Edward Garnier … Tory councillor Russell Bernstein.

News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.): Former Supreme Court Justice Jonathan Sumption (5.30 p.m.) … former Downing Street Director of Communications Guto Harri (5.45 p.m.) … Labour peer Jim Knight (6.40 p.m.).

Drive with John Pienaar (Times Radio, 5 p.m.): Former Tory MP David Gauke (5 p.m.) … Ed Davey (5.50 p.m.) … former Tory MP Dominic Grieve (6.15 p.m.).

The News Agents (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): Tory MP Charles Walker.

Sky News Daily (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): Guto Harri.

Tonight With Andrew Marr (LBC, 6 p.m.): Bob Seely … Labour MP lan Byrne … Boris Johnson’s former Press Secretary Will Walden.

Farage (GB News, 7 p.m.): Former Downing Street adviser Alex Crowley.

Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge (Sky News, 7 p.m.): Tory MP Matt Warman … former head of MI6 Richard Dearlove … Tony Blair’s former Political Secretary John McTernan.

Question Time (BBC iPlayer 8 p.m. and BBC One, 10.40 p.m.): Veterans’ Affairs Minister Johnny Mercer … Labour Party Chair Anneliese Dodds … the Guardian’s George Monbiot … the Mail’s Peter Hitchens.

TWEETING TOMORROW’S PAPERS TONIGHT: Allie Hodgkins-Brown.

WHERE TO FIND BOOZE IN WESTMINSTER TONIGHT

DRINK WITH THE SPEAKERS: The Commons’ Speaker’s office is holding Channukah drinks in Westminster from 6 p.m. COVID-hit Lindsay Hoyle presumably won’t make it.

IEA CHRIMBO: The right wing IEA think tank hosts a Christmas Party tonight from 7 p.m. at its Westminster office — invites needed.

TOMORROW’S WORLD

MORE STRIKES: Aslef drivers out on Northern and Transpennine Express services.

Otherwise: There’s not much on the agenda for tomorrow. Which sounds like the perfect environment for more Rwanda-related noising off from Tories.

ANY OTHER BUSINESS

PACKED LUNCH OR PARL LUNCH: Subject to change, here are the lunch menus on the estate tomorrow: The Debate: Vietnamese pork baguette, with crispy carrot, mooli and wasabi mayo; baked haddock fillet on crisp taco with sweetcorn salsa; Japanese tofu and vegetable katsu curry on garlic naan.

Moving on: Labour in Communications network lead Nabhan Malik is stepping back from his role. You can apply for his gig here.

Now hiring: LabourList is hiring for a reporter — details here.

WHAT I’VE BEEN READING: Pollster Peter Kellner argues the threat Reform U.K. pose to the Tories has been exaggerated.

ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: Post War PM Clement Attlee stepped down as Labour leader in 1955. He was succeeded by Hugh Gaitskell.

WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Eleni Courea.

THANKS TO: My editor Rosa Prince, reporters Noah Keate and Bethany Dawson, plus the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.