Tomorrow's Rwanda vote. Meet five Conservative MPs. And ponder the unexpected consequences of abstention.
Paul Goodman
The odds are that the Government will win tomorrow. But it's not hard to see how it could lose by accident.
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If 29 Conservative MPs vote against the Government tomorrow evening, or 57 abstain, it will lose the Second Reading of the new Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill.

Since stopping the boats is one of Rishi Sunak’s five pledges, and the defeat of the Bill would leave him without any apparent means of doing so, such an outcome would take the Government into unknown country, and the Tories nearer a third leadership election in roughly 18 months.

With that in mind, meet five Conservative MPs.

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MP One: He sits in a suburban constituency with a 15,000 majority. He will lose at the general election if the Tories poll at their present rating, but he believes that he will hold the seat come polling day, though not necessarily by all that much. He is on the right of the party and is a member of the Common Sense Group. He voted for Boris Johnson in 2019, Suella Braverman in the Conservative first leadership election of 2022, and nominated Johnson during the second leadership contest of that year. He has no confidence in Rishi Sunak, wants to see him gone, and rebelled last week over electric car sale quotas. He suspects that the new Bill won’t work, but the issue won’t determine his vote tomorrow. He is wavering between abstention, which would be easier to explain to local activists, and voting against the Bill.

MP Two: She sits in a more rural seat with a 20,000 majority, and doesn’t think that she will lose it at the next election. She is also on the right of the party and is a member of the European Research Group. She voted for Boris Johnson in 2019, Liz Truss in the Conservative first leadership election of 2022, but then nominated Sunak during the second leadership contest of that year. She has little faith in him but opposes another leadership election. She also suspects that the new Bill won’t work, and is sympathetic to the view of it expounded by Bill Cash. She may vote for it tomorrow, on the ground that it can be improved in committee, or else may abstain.

MP Three: He sits in a similar seat to MP Two, and has the same view of his electoral prospects. He is on the left of the party and a member of the One Nation Caucus. He voted for Boris Johnson in 2019, Rishi Sunak in the Conservative first leadership election of 2022, and then nominated him during the second leadership contest of that year. His confidence in Sunak has fallen during the past year, but he opposes another leadership contest. He is disturbed by Edward Garnier’s assessment of the Bill for the Caucus, but may vote for it tomorrow, on the ground that it can be improved in committee, or else may abstain.

MP Four: She sits in a similar seat to MP One. She will lose at the general election if the Tories poll at their present rating but, unlike MP One, now believes that she won’t hold it come polling day. She is on the left of the party and Bright Blue’s Advisory Council. She voted for Jeremy Hunt in 2019, Tom Tugendhat in the first Conservative leadership election of 2022, and didn’t nominate anyone in the second leadership contest of that year. She has no confidence in Sunak, but is not convinced that any replacement would be more successful. She too is worried by Edward Garnier’s assessment of the Bill, and is wavering between abstention, which would be easier to explain to local activists, and voting against the Bill.

MP Five: He sits in a Red Wall seat won for the first time at the last general election. His head tells him that he will lose next time. His heart casts desparately around for some way out. He doesn’t belong to any wing of the party, though he’s a member of the Northern Research Group. He voted for Liz Truss in the first Conservative first leadership election of 2022 and nominated Sunak in the second leadership contest of that year. He has no confidence in Sunak, but hasn’t written to Sir Graham Brady, because he can’t make up his mind what to do. He hasn’t a clue whether or not the Bill will work, and rebelled recently over Contaminated Blood. He is undecided about how to vote tomorrow.

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The largest number of Tory MPs falls into none of these categories: these are party loyalists, if that’s quite the right word, who will stick with the whips because they always do.

And, obviously, you can play around with the types and majorities. But all are sketches of people who haven’t decided how to vote, and I think a point arises from it, particularly in relation to MPs who believe that the Bill can be improved in committee.

Namely, that if enough of the latter abstain, and are joined by those who want a leadership contest now, it’s not impossible to imagine the Government losing the vote tomorrow, largely by accident. This scenario is described in this week’s Politics at Jack and Sam’s.

On balance, I doubt it will happen – and it may be that, late in the day, Number Ten and the whips stare over the edge of the precipice, blink, and declare the vote one of confidence after all. Though that would be high-risk.

The moral of these developments may be that the surest way of getting what you want is to vote for it. On that reasoning, Conservative MPs who want Sunak gone would vote against the Bill, and MPs who want to improve the measure would vote for it.

But straightforwardness is seldom the rule among what is sometimes described as “the most sophisticated electorate in the world”.