A new version of the CABLE land surface model (Subversion revision r4601) incorporating land use and land cover change, woody vegetation demography, and a novel optimisation-based approach to plant co
Peter R Cathy M Josep G
Abstract. The Community AtmosphereâBiosphere Land Exchange model (CABLE) is a land
surface model (LSM) that can be applied stand-alone and provides the
land surfaceâatmosphere exchange within the Australian Community Climate
andÂ EarthÂ System Simulator (ACCESS). We describe new developments that extend
the applicability of CABLE for regional and global carbonâclimate
simulations, accounting for vegetation responses to biophysical and
anthropogenic forcings. A land use and land cover change module driven by
gross land use transitions and wood harvest area was implemented, tailored to
the needs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). Novel
aspects include the treatment of secondary woody vegetation, which benefits
from a tight coupling between the land use module and the Population Orders
Physiology (POP) module for woody demography and disturbance-mediated
landscape heterogeneity. Land use transitions and harvest associated with
secondary forest tiles modify the annually resolved patch age distribution
within secondary vegetated tiles, in turn affecting biomass accumulation and
turnover rates and hence the magnitude of the secondary forest sink.
Additionally, we implemented a novel approach to constrain modelled GPP
consistent with the coordination hypothesis and predicted by evolutionary
theory, which suggests that electron-transport- and Rubisco-limited rates
adjust seasonally and across biomes to be co-limiting. We show that the
default prior assumption â common to CABLE and other LSMs â of a fixed
ratio of electron transport to carboxylation capacity at standard temperature
(Jmax,â0âVcmax,â0) is at odds with this hypothesis; we implement
an alternative algorithm for dynamic optimisation of this ratio such that
coordination is achieved as an outcome of fitness maximisation. The results have
significant implications for the magnitude of the simulated CO2
fertilisation effect on photosynthesis in comparison to alternative estimates
and observational proxies. These new developments enhance CABLE's capability for use within an Earth
system model and in stand-alone applications to attribute trends and
variability in the terrestrial carbon cycle to regions, processes and
drivers. Model evaluation shows that the new model version satisfies several
key observational constraints: (i)Â trend and interannual
variations in the global land carbon sink, including sensitivities of
interannual variations to global precipitation and temperature anomalies;
(ii)Â centennial trends in global GPP; (iii)Â coordination of Rubisco-limited
and electron-transport-limited photosynthesis; (iv)Â spatial distributions of
global ET, GPP, biomass and soil carbon; and (v)Â age-dependent rates of
biomass accumulation in boreal, temperate and tropical secondary forests. CABLE simulations agree with recent independent assessments of the global
landâatmosphere flux partition that use a combination of atmospheric
inversions and bottom-up constraints. In particular, there is agreement that
the strong CO2-driven sink in the tropics is largely cancelled by net
deforestation and forest degradation emissions, leaving the Northern
Hemisphere (NH) extratropics as the dominant contributor to the net land
sink.
https://www.geoscientific-model-development.net/favicon_copernicus_16x16_.ico
Articles | Volume 11, issue 7

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2995-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under

the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2995-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under

the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Model description paper

27 Jul 2018

Model description paper | | 27 Jul 2018

A new version of the CABLE land surface model (Subversion revision r4601) incorporating land use and land cover change, woody vegetation demography, and a novel optimisation-based approach to plant coordination of photosynthesis

Vanessa Haverd, Benjamin Smith, Lars Nieradzik, Peter R. Briggs, William Woodgate, Cathy M. Trudinger, Josep G. Canadell, and Matthias Cuntz

Vanessa Haverd

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR

CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, 2601, Australia

CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, 2601, Australia

Dept. of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, SÃ¶lvegatan 12, 22362 Lund, Sweden

Lars Nieradzik

Centre for Environmental and Climate Research (CEC), Lund University SÃ¶lvegatan 37, 22362 Lund, Sweden

Peter R. Briggs

CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, 2601, Australia

William Woodgate

CSIRO Land & Water, Canberra, 2601, Australia

Cathy M. Trudinger

CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Melbourne, 3195, Australia

Josep G. Canadell

CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, 2601, Australia

INRA, UniversitÃ© de Lorraine, AgroParisTech, UMR Silva, 54000 Nancy, France

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Semi-arid ecosystems in Australia are responsible for a significant part of the variability in global atmospheric carbon dioxide. Here we use Australian observations to estimate parameters in a land surface model of carbon and water cycles. We quantify the variability in Australian carbon fluxes between 1982 and 2013, including the large uptake in 2011 associated with exceptionally wet conditions following a prolonged drought. We estimate the effect of parameter uncertainty on these estimates.

Global Carbon Budget 2016

Corinne Le QuÃ©rÃ©, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Stephen Sitch, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Andrew C. Manning, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Richard A. Houghton, Ralph F. Keeling, Simone Alin, Oliver D. Andrews, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Laurent Bopp, FrÃ©dÃ©ric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Kim Currie, Christine Delire, Scott C. Doney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thanos Gkritzalis, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Mario Hoppema, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Arne KÃ¶rtzinger, Peter LandschÃ¼tzer, Nathalie LefÃ¨vre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Kevin O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Christian RÃ¶denbeck, Joe Salisbury, Ute Schuster, JÃ¶rg Schwinger, Roland SÃ©fÃ©rian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Adrienne J. Sutton, Taro Takahashi, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and SÃ¶nke Zaehle

Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 605–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, 2016

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The Global Carbon Budget 2016 is the 11th annual update of emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. This data synthesis brings together measurements, statistical information, and analyses of model results in order to provide an assessment of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties for years 1959 to 2015, with a projection for year 2016.

Carbon uptake and water use in woodlands and forests in southern Australia during an extreme heat wave event in the âAngry Summerâ of 2012/2013

Eva van Gorsel, Sebastian Wolf, James Cleverly, Peter Isaac, Vanessa Haverd, CÃ¤cilia Ewenz, Stefan Arndt, Jason Beringer, VÃ­ctor Resco de Dios, Bradley J. Evans, Anne Griebel, Lindsay B. Hutley, Trevor Keenan, Natascha Kljun, Craig Macfarlane, Wayne S. Meyer, Ian McHugh, Elise Pendall, Suzanne M. Prober, and Richard Silberstein

Biogeosciences, 13, 5947–5964, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5947-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5947-2016, 2016

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Temperature extremes are expected to become more prevalent in the future and understanding ecosystem response is crucial. We synthesised measurements and model results to investigate the effect of a summer heat wave on carbon and water exchange across three biogeographic regions in southern Australia. Forests proved relatively resilient to short-term heat extremes but the response of woodlands indicates that the carbon sinks of large areas of Australia may not be sustainable in a future climate.

An introduction to the Australian and New Zealand flux tower network â OzFlux

Jason Beringer, Lindsay B. Hutley, Ian McHugh, Stefan K. Arndt, David Campbell, Helen A. Cleugh, James Cleverly, VÃ­ctor Resco de Dios, Derek Eamus, Bradley Evans, Cacilia Ewenz, Peter Grace, Anne Griebel, Vanessa Haverd, Nina Hinko-Najera, Alfredo Huete, Peter Isaac, Kasturi Kanniah, Ray Leuning, Michael J. Liddell, Craig Macfarlane, Wayne Meyer, Caitlin Moore, Elise Pendall, Alison Phillips, Rebecca L. Phillips, Suzanne M. Prober, Natalia Restrepo-Coupe, Susanna Rutledge, Ivan Schroder, Richard Silberstein, Patricia Southall, Mei Sun Yee, Nigel J. Tapper, Eva van Gorsel, Camilla Vote, Jeff Walker, and Tim Wardlaw

Biogeosciences, 13, 5895–5916, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5895-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5895-2016, 2016

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OzFlux is the regional Australian and New Zealand flux tower network that aims to provide a continental-scale national facility to monitor and assess trends, and improve predictions, of Australiaâs terrestrial biosphere and climate. We describe the evolution, design, and status as well as an overview of data processing. We suggest that a synergistic approach is required to address all of the spatial, ecological, human, and cultural challenges of managing Australian ecosystems.

Improved representations of coupled soilâcanopy processes in the CABLE land surface model (Subversion revision 3432)

Vanessa Haverd, Matthias Cuntz, Lars P. Nieradzik, and Ian N. Harman

Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3111–3122, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3111-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3111-2016, 2016

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CABLE is a global land surface model, which has been used extensively in offline and coupled simulations. We improve CABLEâs simulation of evaporation using a new scheme for drought response and a physically accurate representation of coupled energy and water fluxes in the soil. Marked improvements in predictions of evaporation are demonstrated globally. Results highlight the important roles of deep soil moisture in mediating drought response and litter in dampening soil evaporation.

Evaluating the performance of land surface model ORCHIDEE-CANÂ v1.0 on water and energy flux estimation with a single- and multi-layer energy budget scheme

Yiying Chen, James Ryder, Vladislav Bastrikov, Matthew J. McGrath, Kim Naudts, Juliane Otto, Catherine OttlÃ©, Philippe Peylin, Jan Polcher, Aude Valade, Andrew Black, Jan A. Elbers, Eddy Moors, Thomas Foken, Eva van Gorsel, Vanessa Haverd, Bernard Heinesch, Frank Tiedemann, Alexander Knohl, Samuli Launiainen, Denis Loustau, JÃ©rÃ´me OgÃ©e, Timo Vessala, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert

Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2951–2972, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2951-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2951-2016, 2016

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In this study, we compiled a set of within-canopy and above-canopy measurements of energy and water fluxes, and used these data to parametrize and validate the new multi-layer energy budget scheme for a range of forest types. An adequate parametrization approach has been presented for the global-scale land surface model (ORCHIDEE-CAN). Furthermore, model performance of the new multi-layer parametrization was compared against the existing single-layer scheme.

A model inter-comparison study to examine limiting factors in modelling Australian tropical savannas

Rhys Whitley, Jason Beringer, Lindsay B. Hutley, Gab Abramowitz, Martin G. De Kauwe, Remko Duursma, Bradley Evans, Vanessa Haverd, Longhui Li, Youngryel Ryu, Benjamin Smith, Ying-Ping Wang, Mathew Williams, and Qiang Yu

Biogeosciences, 13, 3245–3265, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3245-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3245-2016, 2016

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In this study we assess how well terrestrial biosphere models perform at predicting water and carbon cycling for savanna ecosystems. We apply our models to five savanna sites in Northern Australia and highlight key causes for model failure. Our assessment of model performance uses a novel benchmarking system that scores a modelâs predictive ability based on how well it is utilizing its driving information. On average, we found the models as a group display only moderate levels of performance.

Coupling carbon allocation with leaf and root phenology predicts treeâgrass partitioning along a savanna rainfall gradient

V. Haverd, B. Smith, M. Raupach, P. Briggs, L. Nieradzik, J. Beringer, L. Hutley, C. M. Trudinger, and J. Cleverly

Biogeosciences, 13, 761–779, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-761-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-761-2016, 2016

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We present a new approach for modelling coupled phenology and carbon allocation in savannas, and test it using data from the OzFlux network. Model behaviour emerges from complex feedbacks between the plant physiology and vegetation dynamics, in response to resource availability, and not from imposed hypotheses about the controls on tree-grass co-existence. Results indicate that resource limitation is a stronger determinant of tree cover than disturbance in Australian savannas.

A multi-layer land surface energy budget model for implicit coupling with global atmospheric simulations

J. Ryder, J. Polcher, P. Peylin, C. OttlÃ©, Y. Chen, E. van Gorsel, V. Haverd, M. J. McGrath, K. Naudts, J. Otto, A. Valade, and S. Luyssaert

Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 223–245, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-223-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-223-2016, 2016

A vertically discretised canopy description for ORCHIDEE (SVN r2290) and the modifications to the energy, water and carbon fluxes

K. Naudts, J. Ryder, M. J. McGrath, J. Otto, Y. Chen, A. Valade, V. Bellasen, G. Berhongaray, G. BÃ¶nisch, M. Campioli, J. Ghattas, T. De Groote, V. Haverd, J. Kattge, N. MacBean, F. Maignan, P. MerilÃ¤, J. Penuelas, P. Peylin, B. Pinty, H. Pretzsch, E. D. Schulze, D. Solyga, N. Vuichard, Y. Yan, and S. Luyssaert

Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2035–2065, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2035-2015,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2035-2015, 2015

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Despite the potential of forest management to mitigate climate change, none of today's predictions of future climate accounts for the impact of forest management. To address this gap in modelling capability, we developed and parametrised a land-surface model to simulate biogeochemical and biophysical effects of forest management. Comparison of model output against data showed an increased model performance in reproducing large-scale spatial patterns and inter-annual variability over Europe.

A stand-alone tree demography and landscape structure module for Earth system models: integration with inventory data from temperate and boreal forests

V. Haverd, B. Smith, L. P. Nieradzik, and P. R. Briggs

Biogeosciences, 11, 4039–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4039-2014,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4039-2014, 2014

Multiple observation types reduce uncertainty in Australia's terrestrial carbon and water cycles

V. Haverd, M. R. Raupach, P. R. Briggs, J. G. Canadell, P. Isaac, C. Pickett-Heaps, S. H. Roxburgh, E. van Gorsel, R. A. Viscarra Rossel, and Z. Wang

Biogeosciences, 10, 2011–2040, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2011-2013,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2011-2013, 2013

The Australian terrestrial carbon budget

V. Haverd, M. R. Raupach, P. R. Briggs, J. G. Canadell., S. J. Davis, R. M. Law, C. P. Meyer, G. P. Peters, C. Pickett-Heaps, and B. Sherman

Biogeosciences, 10, 851–869, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-851-2013,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-851-2013, 2013

Mapping the world’s inland surface waters: an update to the Global Lakes and Wetlands Database (GLWD v2)

Bernhard Lehner, Mira Anand, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Florence Tan, Filipe Aires, George H. Allen, Pilippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Nick Davidson, C. Max Finlayson, Thomas Gumbricht, Lammert Hilarides, Gustaf Hugelius, Robert B. Jackson, Maartje C. Korver, Peter B. McIntyre, Szabolcs Nagy, David Olefeldt, Tamlin M. Pavelsky, Jean-Francois Pekel, Benjamin Poulter, Catherine Prigent, Jida Wang, Thomas A. Worthington, Dai Yamazaki, and Michele Thieme

Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-204,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-204, 2024

Preprint under review for ESSD

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The Global Lakes and Wetlands Database (GLWD) version 2 distinguishes a total of 33 non-overlapping wetland classes, providing a static map of the world’s inland surface waters. It contains cell fractions of wetland extents per class at a grid cell resolution of ~500 m. The total combined extent of all classes including all inland and coastal waterbodies and wetlands of all inundation frequencies—that is, the maximum extent—covers 18.2 million km2, equivalent to 13.4 % of total global land area.

Global nitrous oxide budget (1980â2020)

Hanqin Tian, Naiqing Pan, Rona L. Thompson, Josep G. Canadell, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Pierre Regnier, Eric A. Davidson, Michael Prather, Philippe Ciais, Marilena Muntean, Shufen Pan, Wilfried Winiwarter, SÃ¶nke Zaehle, Feng Zhou, Robert B. Jackson, Hermann W. Bange, Sarah Berthet, Zihao Bian, Daniele Bianchi, Alexander F. Bouwman, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Geoffrey Dutton, Minpeng Hu, Akihiko Ito, Atul K. Jain, Aurich Jeltsch-ThÃ¶mmes, Fortunat Joos, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Paul B. Krummel, Xin Lan, Angela Landolfi, Ronny Lauerwald, Ya Li, Chaoqun Lu, Taylor Maavara, Manfredi Manizza, Dylan B. Millet, Jens MÃ¼hle, Prabir K. Patra, Glen P. Peters, Xiaoyu Qin, Peter Raymond, Laure Resplandy, Judith A. Rosentreter, Hao Shi, Qing Sun, Daniele Tonina, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Junjie Wang, Kelley C. Wells, Luke M. Western, Chris Wilson, Jia Yang, Yuanzhi Yao, Yongfa You, and Qing Zhu

Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2543–2604, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, 2024

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Atmospheric concentrations of nitrous oxide (N2O), a greenhouse gas 273 times more potent than carbon dioxide, have increased by 25 % since the preindustrial period, with the highest observed growth rate in 2020 and 2021. This rapid growth rate has primarily been due to a 40 % increase in anthropogenic emissions since 1980. Observed atmospheric N2O concentrations in recent years have exceeded the worst-case climate scenario, underscoring the importance of reducing anthropogenic N2O emissions.

Ensemble estimates of global wetland methane emissions over 2000–2020

Zhen Zhang, Benjamin Poulter, Joe R. Melton, William J. Riley, George H. Allen, David J. Beerling, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Philippe Ciais, Nicola Gedney, Peter O. Hopcroft, Akihiko Ito, Robert B. Jackson, Atul K. Jain, Katherine Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Sara Knox, Tingting Li, Xin Li, Xiangyu Liu, Kyle McDonald, Gavin McNicol, Paul A. Miller, Jurek MÃ¼ller, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Zhangcai Qin, Ryan M. Riggs, Marielle Saunois, Qing Sun, Hanqin Tian, Xiaoming Xu, Yuanzhi Yao, Xi Yi, Wenxin Zhang, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1584,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1584, 2024

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This study assesses global methane emissions from wetlands between 2000 and 2020 using multiple models. We found that wetland emissions increased by 6–7 Tg CH4 per year in the 2010s compared to the 2000s. Rising temperatures primarily drove this increase, while changes in precipitation and CO2 levels also played roles. Our findings highlight the importance of wetlands in the global methane budget and the need for continuous monitoring to understand their impact on climate change.

Global Methane Budget 2000–2020

Marielle Saunois, Adrien Martinez, Benjamin Poulter, Zhen Zhang, Peter Raymond, Pierre Regnier, Joseph G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Bousquet, Philippe Ciais, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Xin Lan, George H. Allen, David Bastviken, David J. Beerling, Dmitry A. Belikov, Donald R. Blake, Simona Castaldi, Monica Crippa, Bridget R. Deemer, Fraser Dennison, Giuseppe Etiope, Nicola Gedney, Lena HÃ¶glund-Isaksson, Meredith A. Holgerson, Peter O. Hopcroft, Gustaf Hugelius, Akihito Ito, Atul K. Jain, Rajesh Janardanan, Matthew S. Johnson, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Ronny Lauerwald, Tingting Li, Xiangyu Liu, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe R. Melton, Jens MÃ¼hle, Jurek MÃ¼ller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Shufen Pan, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Gerard Rocher-Ros, Judith A. Rosentreter, Motoki Sasakawa, Arjo Segers, Steven J. Smith, Emily H. Stanley, Joel Thanwerdas, Hanquin Tian, Aki Tsuruta, Francesco N. Tubiello, Thomas S. Weber, Guido van der Werf, Doug E. Worthy, Yi Xi, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang

Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-115,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-115, 2024

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Methane (CH4) is the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing after carbon dioxide (CO2). A consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists synthesize and update the budget of the sources and sinks of CH4. This edition benefits from important progresses in estimating emissions from lakes and ponds, reservoirs, and streams and rivers. For the 2010s decade, global CH4 emissions are estimated at 575 Tg CH4 yr-1, including ~65 % from anthropogenic sources.

A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs)

Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, AÃ¯da Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans PÃ¶rtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, BjÃ¸rn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland SÃ©fÃ©rian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls

Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4533–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, 2024

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The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next generation of Earth system model runs to project future climate change. To contribute to that effort, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for representative emission pathways. These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.

Preindustrial to present-day changes in atmospheric carbon monoxide: agreements and gaps between ice archives and global model reconstructions

Xavier FaÃ¯n, Sophie Szopa, Vaishali NaÃ¯k, Patricia Martinerie, David M. Etheridge, Rachael H. Rhodes, Cathy M. Trudinger, Vasilii V. Petrenko, KÃ©vin Fourteau, and Phillip Place

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-653,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-653, 2024

This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).

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Carbon monoxide (CO) plays a crucial role in the atmosphere's oxidizing capacity. In this study, we analyse how historical (1850–2014) [CO] outputs from state-of-the-art global chemistry-climate models over Greenland and Antarctica are able to capture both absolute values and trends recorded in multi-site ice archives. A disparity in [CO] growth rates emerges in the Northern Hemisphere between models and observations from 1920–1975 CE, possibly linked to uncertainties in CO emission factors.

On the predictability of turbulent fluxes from land: PLUMBER2 MIP experimental description and preliminary results

Gab Abramowitz, Anna Ukkola, Sanaa Hobeichi, Jon Cranko Page, Mathew Lipson, Martin De Kauwe, Sam Green, Claire Brenner, Jonathan Frame, Grey Nearing, Martyn Clark, Martin Best, Peter Anthoni, Gabriele Arduini, Souhail Boussetta, Silvia Caldararu, Kyeungwoo Cho, Matthias Cuntz, David Fairbairn, Craig Ferguson, Hyungjun Kim, Yeonjoo Kim, JÃ¼rgen Knauer, David Lawrence, Xiangzhong Luo, Sergey Malyshev, Tomoko Nitta, Jerome Ogee, Keith Oleson, Catherine OttlÃ©, Phillipe Peylin, Patricia de Rosnay, Heather Rumbold, Bob Su, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony Walker, Xiaoni Wang-Faivre, Yunfei Wang, and Yijian Zeng

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3084,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3084, 2024

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This paper evaluates land models – computer based models that simulate ecosystem dynamics, the land carbon, water and energy cycles and the role of land in the climate system. It uses machine learning / AI approaches to show that despite the complexity of land models, they do not perform nearly as well as they could, given the amount of information they are provided with about the prediction problem.

Global Carbon Budget 2023

Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter LandschÃ¼tzer, Corinne Le QuÃ©rÃ©, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, FrÃ©dÃ©ric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, ÃzgÃ¼r GÃ¼rses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza JarnÃ­kovÃ¡, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, JÃ¼rgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne KÃ¶rtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie LefÃ¨vre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian RÃ¶denbeck, Thais M. Rosan, JÃ¶rg Schwinger, Roland SÃ©fÃ©rian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, SÃ¶nke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng

Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023

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The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.

Southern Hemisphere atmospheric history of carbon monoxide over the late Holocene reconstructed from multiple Antarctic ice archives

Xavier FaÃ¯n, David M. Etheridge, KÃ©vin Fourteau, Patricia Martinerie, Cathy M. Trudinger, Rachael H. Rhodes, Nathan J. Chellman, Ray L. Langenfelds, Joseph R. McConnell, Mark A. J. Curran, Edward J. Brook, Thomas Blunier, GrÃ©gory Teste, Roberto Grilli, Anthony Lemoine, William T. Sturges, Boris VanniÃ¨re, Johannes Freitag, and JÃ©rÃ´me Chappellaz

Clim. Past, 19, 2287–2311, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2287-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2287-2023, 2023

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We report on a 3000-year record of carbon monoxide (CO) levels in the Southern Hemisphere's high latitudes by combining ice core and firn air measurements with modern direct atmospheric samples. Antarctica [CO] remained stable (–835 to 1500 CE), decreased during the Little Ice Age, and peaked around 1985 CE. Such evolution reflects stable biomass burning CO emissions before industrialization, followed by growth from CO anthropogenic sources, which decline after 1985 due to improved combustion.

Global carbon uptake of cement carbonation accounts 1930â2021

Zi Huang, Jiaoyue Wang, Longfei Bing, Yijiao Qiu, Rui Guo, Ying Yu, Mingjing Ma, Le Niu, Dan Tong, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Josep G. Canadell, Fengming Xi, and Zhu Liu

Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4947–4958, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4947-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4947-2023, 2023

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This is about global and regional cement process carbon emissions and CO2 uptake calculations from 1930 to 2019. The global cement production is rising to 4.4 Gt, causing processing carbon emission of 1.81 Gt (95% CI: 1.75–1.88 Gt CO2) in 2021. Plus, in 2021, cement’s carbon accumulated uptake (22.9 Gt, 95% CI: 19.6–22.6 Gt CO2) has offset 55.2% of cement process CO2 emissions (41.5 Gt, 95% CI: 38.7–47.1 Gt CO2) since 1930.

A modeling approach to investigate drivers, variability and uncertainties in O2 fluxes and O2 : CO2 exchange ratios in a temperate forest

Yuan Yan, Anne Klosterhalfen, Fernando Moyano, Matthias Cuntz, Andrew C. Manning, and Alexander Knohl

Biogeosciences, 20, 4087–4107, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4087-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4087-2023, 2023

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A better understanding of O2 fluxes, their exchange ratios with CO2 and their interrelations with environmental conditions would provide further insights into biogeochemical ecosystem processes. We, therefore, used the multilayer canopy model CANVEG to simulate and analyze the flux exchange for our forest study site for 2012–2016. Based on these simulations, we further successfully tested the application of various micrometeorological methods and the prospects of real O2 flux measurements.

The consolidated European synthesis of CO2 emissions and removals for the European Union and United Kingdom: 1990â2020

Matthew J. McGrath, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Philippe Peylin, Robbie M. Andrew, Bradley Matthews, Frank Dentener, Juraj BalkoviÄ, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Gregoire Broquet, Philippe Ciais, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Raphael GanzenmÃ¼ller, Giacomo Grassi, Ian Harris, Matthew Jones, JÃ¼rgen Knauer, Matthias Kuhnert, Guillaume Monteil, Saqr Munassar, Paul I. Palmer, Glen P. Peters, Chunjing Qiu, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Oksana Tarasova, Matteo Vizzarri, Karina Winkler, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Antoine Berchet, Peter Briggs, Patrick Brockmann, FrÃ©dÃ©ric Chevallier, Giulia Conchedda, Monica Crippa, Stijn N. C. Dellaert, Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon, Sara Filipek, Pierre Friedlingstein, Richard Fuchs, Michael Gauss, Christoph Gerbig, Diego Guizzardi, Dirk GÃ¼nther, Richard A. Houghton, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Ronny Lauerwald, Bas Lerink, Ingrid T. Luijkx, GÃ©raud Moulas, Marilena Muntean, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, AurÃ©lie Paquirissamy, Lucia Perugini, Wouter Peters, Roberto Pilli, Julia Pongratz, Pierre Regnier, Marko Scholze, Yusuf Serengil, Pete Smith, Efisio Solazzo, Rona L. Thompson, Francesco N. Tubiello, Timo Vesala, and Sophia Walther

Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4295–4370, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023, 2023

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Accurate estimation of fluxes of carbon dioxide from the land surface is essential for understanding future impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the climate system. A wide variety of methods currently exist to estimate these sources and sinks. We are continuing work to develop annual comparisons of these diverse methods in order to clarify what they all actually calculate and to resolve apparent disagreement, in addition to highlighting opportunities for increased understanding.

Exploring the impacts of unprecedented climate extremes on forest ecosystems: hypotheses to guide modeling and experimental studies

Jennifer A. Holm, David M. Medvigy, Benjamin Smith, Jeffrey S. Dukes, Claus Beier, Mikhail Mishurov, Xiangtao Xu, Jeremy W. Lichstein, Craig D. Allen, Klaus S. Larsen, Yiqi Luo, Cari Ficken, William T. Pockman, William R. L. Anderegg, and Anja Rammig

Biogeosciences, 20, 2117–2142, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2117-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2117-2023, 2023

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Unprecedented climate extremes (UCEs) are expected to have dramatic impacts on ecosystems. We present a road map of how dynamic vegetation models can explore extreme drought and climate change and assess ecological processes to measure and reduce model uncertainties. The models predict strong nonlinear responses to UCEs. Due to different model representations, the models differ in magnitude and trajectory of forest loss. Therefore, we explore specific plant responses that reflect knowledge gaps.

Opening Pandora's box: reducing global circulation model uncertainty in Australian simulations of the carbon cycle

Lina Teckentrup, Martin G. De Kauwe, Gab Abramowitz, Andrew J. Pitman, Anna M. Ukkola, Sanaa Hobeichi, Bastien FranÃ§ois, and Benjamin Smith

Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 549–576, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-549-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-549-2023, 2023

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Studies analyzing the impact of the future climate on ecosystems employ climate projections simulated by global circulation models. These climate projections display biases that translate into significant uncertainty in projections of the future carbon cycle. Here, we test different methods to constrain the uncertainty in simulations of the carbon cycle over Australia. We find that all methods reduce the bias in the steady-state carbon variables but that temporal properties do not improve.

Overview: The Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEAR)

H. E. Markus Meier, Marcus Reckermann, Joakim Langner, Ben Smith, and Ira Didenkulova

Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 519–531, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-519-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-519-2023, 2023

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The Baltic Earth Assessment Reports summarise the current state of knowledge on Earth system science in the Baltic Sea region. The 10 review articles focus on the regional water, biogeochemical and carbon cycles; extremes and natural hazards; sea-level dynamics and coastal erosion; marine ecosystems; coupled Earth system models; scenario simulations for the regional atmosphere and the Baltic Sea; and climate change and impacts of human use. Some highlights of the results are presented here.

Harmonising the land-use flux estimates of global models and national inventories for 2000â2020

Giacomo Grassi, Clemens Schwingshackl, Thomas Gasser, Richard A. Houghton, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Alessandro Cescatti, Philippe Ciais, Sandro Federici, Pierre Friedlingstein, Werner A. Kurz, Maria J. Sanz Sanchez, RaÃºl Abad ViÃ±as, Ramdane Alkama, Selma Bultan, Guido Ceccherini, Stefanie Falk, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, JÃ¼rgen Knauer, Anu Korosuo, Joana Melo, Matthew J. McGrath, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Benjamin Poulter, Anna A. Romanovskaya, Simone Rossi, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Julia Pongratz

Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1093–1114, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1093-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1093-2023, 2023

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Striking differences exist in estimates of land-use CO2 fluxes between the national greenhouse gas inventories and the IPCC assessment reports. These differences hamper an accurate assessment of the collective progress under the Paris Agreement. By implementing an approach that conceptually reconciles land-use CO2 flux from national inventories and the global models used by the IPCC, our study is an important step forward for increasing confidence in land-use CO2 flux estimates.

Reconciling the bottom-up and top-down estimates of the methane chemical sink using multiple observations

Yuanhong Zhao, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Xin Lin, Michaela I. Hegglin, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, and Bo Zheng

Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 789–807, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-789-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-789-2023, 2023

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The large uncertainties in OH simulated by atmospheric chemistry models hinder accurate estimates of CH4 chemical loss through the bottom-up method. This study presents a new approach based on OH precursor observations and a chemical box model to improve the tropospheric OH distributions simulated by atmospheric chemistry models. Through this approach, both the global OH burden and the corresponding methane chemical loss reach consistency with the top-down method based on MCF inversions.

Global Carbon Budget 2022

Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le QuÃ©rÃ©, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Ramdane Alkama, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, FrÃ©dÃ©ric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Lucas Gloege, Giacomo Grassi, Nicolas Gruber, ÃzgÃ¼r GÃ¼rses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Annika Jersild, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, JÃ¼rgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter LandschÃ¼tzer, Nathalie LefÃ¨vre, Keith Lindsay, Junjie Liu, Zhu Liu, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Matthew J. McGrath, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Naiqing Pan, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian RÃ¶denbeck, Carmen Rodriguez, Thais M. Rosan, JÃ¶rg Schwinger, Roland SÃ©fÃ©rian, Jamie D. Shutler, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Xiangjun Tian, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Chris Whitehead, Anna Willstrand Wranne, Rebecca Wright, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, SÃ¶nke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng

Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4811–4900, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, 2022

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The Global Carbon Budget 2022 describes the datasets and methodology used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, the land ecosystems, and the ocean. These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.

LPJ-GUESS/LSMv1.0: a next-generation land surface model with high ecological realism

David MartÃ­n Belda, Peter Anthoni, David WÃ¥rlind, Stefan Olin, Guy Schurgers, Jing Tang, Benjamin Smith, and Almut Arneth

Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6709–6745, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6709-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6709-2022, 2022

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We present a number of augmentations to the ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS, which will allow us to use it in studies of the interactions between the land biosphere and the climate. The new module enables calculation of fluxes of energy and water into the atmosphere that are consistent with the modelled vegetation processes. The modelled fluxes are in fair agreement with observations across 21 sites from the FLUXNET network.

A renewed rise in global HCFC-141b emissions between 2017â2021

Luke M. Western, Alison L. Redington, Alistair J. Manning, Cathy M. Trudinger, Lei Hu, Stephan Henne, Xuekun Fang, Lambert J. M. Kuijpers, Christina Theodoridi, David S. Godwin, Jgor Arduini, Bronwyn Dunse, Andreas Engel, Paul J. Fraser, Christina M. Harth, Paul B. Krummel, Michela Maione, Jens MÃ¼hle, Simon O'Doherty, Hyeri Park, Sunyoung Park, Stefan Reimann, Peter K. Salameh, Daniel Say, Roland Schmidt, Tanja Schuck, Carolina Siso, Kieran M. Stanley, Isaac Vimont, Martin K. Vollmer, Dickon Young, Ronald G. Prinn, Ray F. Weiss, Stephen A. Montzka, and Matthew Rigby

Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9601–9616, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9601-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9601-2022, 2022

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The production of ozone-destroying gases is being phased out. Even though production of one of the main ozone-depleting gases, called HCFC-141b, has been declining for many years, the amount that is being released to the atmosphere has been increasing since 2017. We do not know for sure why this is. A possible explanation is that HCFC-141b that was used to make insulating foams many years ago is only now escaping to the atmosphere, or a large part of its production is not being reported.

Gas isotope thermometry in the South Pole and Dome Fuji ice cores provides evidence for seasonal rectification of ice core gas records

Jacob D. Morgan, Christo Buizert, Tyler J. Fudge, Kenji Kawamura, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, and Cathy M. Trudinger

The Cryosphere, 16, 2947–2966, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2947-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2947-2022, 2022

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The composition of air bubbles in Antarctic ice cores records information about past changes in properties of the snowpack. We find that, near the South Pole, thinner snowpack in the past is often due to steeper surface topography, in which faster winds erode the snow and deposit it in flatter areas. The slope and wind seem to also cause a seasonal bias in the composition of air bubbles in the ice core. These findings will improve interpretation of other ice cores from places with steep slopes.

Global Carbon Budget 2021

Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le QuÃ©rÃ©, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Rob B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Laurent Bopp, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, FrÃ©dÃ©ric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Kim I. Currie, Bertrand Decharme, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Thomas Gasser, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, ÃzgÃ¼r GÃ¼rses, Ian Harris, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Atul Jain, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, JÃ¼rgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne KÃ¶rtzinger, Peter LandschÃ¼tzer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie LefÃ¨vre, Sebastian Lienert, Junjie Liu, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian RÃ¶denbeck, Thais M. Rosan, JÃ¶rg Schwinger, Clemens Schwingshackl, Roland SÃ©fÃ©rian, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Chisato Wada, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, SÃ¶nke Zaehle, and Jiye Zeng

Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1917–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, 2022

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The Global Carbon Budget 2021 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.

Definitions and methods to estimate regional land carbon fluxes for the second phase of the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Project (RECCAP-2)

Philippe Ciais, Ana Bastos, FrÃ©dÃ©ric Chevallier, Ronny Lauerwald, Ben Poulter, Josep G. Canadell, Gustaf Hugelius, Robert B. Jackson, Atul Jain, Matthew Jones, Masayuki Kondo, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Prabir K. Patra, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Shilong Piao, Chunjing Qiu, Celso Von Randow, Pierre Regnier, Marielle Saunois, Robert Scholes, Anatoly Shvidenko, Hanqin Tian, Hui Yang, Xuhui Wang, and Bo Zheng

Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1289–1316, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1289-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1289-2022, 2022

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The second phase of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) will provide updated quantification and process understanding of CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions and sinks for ten regions of the globe. In this paper, we give definitions, review different methods, and make recommendations for estimating different components of the total land–atmosphere carbon exchange for each region in a consistent and complete approach.

Nitrogen restricts future sub-arctic treeline advance in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model

Adrian Gustafson, Paul A. Miller, Robert G. BjÃ¶rk, Stefan Olin, and Benjamin Smith

Biogeosciences, 18, 6329–6347, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6329-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6329-2021, 2021

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We performed model simulations of vegetation change for a historic period and a range of climate change scenarios at a high spatial resolution. Projected treeline advance continued at the same or increased rates compared to our historic simulation. Temperature isotherms advanced faster than treelines, revealing a lag in potential vegetation shifts that was modulated by nitrogen availability. At the year 2100 projected treelines had advanced by 45–195 elevational metres depending on the scenario.

Was Australia a sink or source of CO2 in 2015? Data assimilation using OCO-2 satellite measurements

Yohanna Villalobos, Peter J. Rayner, Jeremy D. Silver, Steven Thomas, Vanessa Haverd, JÃ¼rgen Knauer, ZoÃ« M. Loh, Nicholas M. Deutscher, David W. T. Griffith, and David F. Pollard

Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17453–17494, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17453-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17453-2021, 2021

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Semi-arid ecosystems such as those in Australia are evolving and might play an essential role in the future of climate change. We use carbon dioxide concentrations derived from the OCO-2 satellite instrument and a regional transport model to understand if Australia was a carbon sink or source of CO2 in 2015. Our research's main findings suggest that Australia acted as a carbon sink of about −0.41 ± 0.08 petagrams of carbon in 2015, driven primarily by savanna and sparsely vegetated ecosystems.

A comprehensive and synthetic dataset for global, regional, and national greenhouse gas emissions by sector 1970â2018 with an extension to 2019

Jan C. Minx, William F. Lamb, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Monica Crippa, Niklas DÃ¶bbeling, Piers M. Forster, Diego Guizzardi, Jos Olivier, Glen P. Peters, Julia Pongratz, Andy Reisinger, Matthew Rigby, Marielle Saunois, Steven J. Smith, Efisio Solazzo, and Hanqin Tian

Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5213–5252, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5213-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5213-2021, 2021

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We provide a synthetic dataset on anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for 1970–2018 with a fast-track extension to 2019. We show that GHG emissions continued to rise across all gases and sectors. Annual average GHG emissions growth slowed, but absolute decadal increases have never been higher in human history. We identify a number of data gaps and data quality issues in global inventories and highlight their importance for monitoring progress towards international climate goals.

Accounting for forest management in the estimation of forest carbon balance using the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (v4.0, r9710): implementation and evaluation of simulations for Europe

Mats Lindeskog, Benjamin Smith, Fredrik Lagergren, Ekaterina Sycheva, Andrej Ficko, Hans Pretzsch, and Anja Rammig

Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6071–6112, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6071-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6071-2021, 2021

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Forests play an important role in the global carbon cycle and for carbon storage. In Europe, forests are intensively managed. To understand how management influences carbon storage in European forests, we implement detailed forest management into the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. We test the model by comparing model output to typical forestry measures, such as growing stock and harvest data, for different countries in Europe.

Using the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB) records as century-long benchmarks for global land-surface models

Jina Jeong, Jonathan Barichivich, Philippe Peylin, Vanessa Haverd, Matthew Joseph McGrath, Nicolas Vuichard, Michael Neil Evans, Flurin Babst, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert

Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5891–5913, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5891-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5891-2021, 2021

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We have proposed and evaluated the use of four benchmarks that leverage tree-ring width observations to provide more nuanced verification targets for land-surface models (LSMs), which currently lack a long-term benchmark for forest ecosystem functioning. Using relatively unbiased European biomass network datasets, we identify the extent to which presumed biases in the much larger International Tree-Ring Data Bank might degrade the validation of LSMs.

Slowdown of the greening trend in natural vegetation with further rise in atmospheric CO2

Alexander J. Winkler, Ranga B. Myneni, Alexis Hannart, Stephen Sitch, Vanessa Haverd, Danica Lombardozzi, Vivek K. Arora, Julia Pongratz, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Daniel S. Goll, Etsushi Kato, Hanqin Tian, Almut Arneth, Pierre Friedlingstein, Atul K. Jain, SÃ¶nke Zaehle, and Victor Brovkin

Biogeosciences, 18, 4985–5010, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, 2021

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Satellite observations since the early 1980s show that Earth's greening trend is slowing down and that browning clusters have been emerging, especially in the last 2 decades. A collection of model simulations in conjunction with causal theory points at climatic changes as a key driver of vegetation changes in natural ecosystems. Most models underestimate the observed vegetation browning, especially in tropical rainforests, which could be due to an excessive CO2 fertilization effect in models.

Exploring how groundwater buffers the influence of heatwaves on vegetation function during multi-year droughts

Mengyuan Mu, Martin G. De Kauwe, Anna M. Ukkola, Andy J. Pitman, Weidong Guo, Sanaa Hobeichi, and Peter R. Briggs

Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 919–938, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-919-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-919-2021, 2021

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Groundwater can buffer the impacts of drought and heatwaves on ecosystems, which is often neglected in model studies. Using a land surface model with groundwater, we explained how groundwater sustains transpiration and eases heat pressure on plants in heatwaves during multi-year droughts. Our results showed the groundwaterâs influences diminish as drought extends and are regulated by plant physiology. We suggest neglecting groundwater in models may overstate projected future heatwave intensity.

Linking global terrestrial CO2 fluxes and environmental drivers: inferences from the Orbiting Carbon ObservatoryÂ 2 satellite and terrestrial biospheric models

Zichong Chen, Junjie Liu, Daven K. Henze, Deborah N. Huntzinger, Kelley C. Wells, Stephen Sitch, Pierre Friedlingstein, Emilie Joetzjer, Vladislav Bastrikov, Daniel S. Goll, Vanessa Haverd, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Sebastian Lienert, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Benjamin Poulter, Hanqin Tian, Andrew J. Wiltshire, SÃ¶nke Zaehle, and Scot M. Miller

Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6663–6680, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6663-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6663-2021, 2021

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NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite observes atmospheric CO2 globally. We use a multiple regression and inverse model to quantify the relationships between OCO-2 and environmental drivers within individual years for 2015–2018 and within seven global biomes. Our results point to limitations of current space-based observations for inferring environmental relationships but also indicate the potential to inform key relationships that are very uncertain in process-based models.

Examining the sensitivity of the terrestrial carbon cycle to the expression of El NiÃ±o

Lina Teckentrup, Martin G. De Kauwe, Andrew J. Pitman, and Benjamin Smith

Biogeosciences, 18, 2181–2203, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2181-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2181-2021, 2021

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The El NiÃ±o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) describes changes in the sea surface temperature patterns of the Pacific Ocean. This influences the global weather, impacting vegetation on land. There are two types of El NiÃ±o: central Pacific (CP) and eastern Pacific (EP). In this study, we explored the long-term impacts on the carbon balance on land linked to the two El NiÃ±o types. Using a dynamic vegetation model, we simulated what would happen if only either CP or EP El NiÃ±o events had occurred.

Retrieval and validation of forest background reflectivity from daily Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) data across European forests

Jan Pisek, Angela Erb, Lauri Korhonen, Tobias Biermann, Arnaud Carrara, Edoardo Cremonese, Matthias Cuntz, Silvano Fares, Giacomo Gerosa, Thomas GrÃ¼nwald, Niklas Hase, Michal Heliasz, Andreas Ibrom, Alexander Knohl, Johannes Kobler, Bart Kruijt, Holger Lange, Leena LeppÃ¤nen, Jean-Marc Limousin, Francisco Ramon Lopez Serrano, Denis Loustau, Petr LukeÅ¡, Lars Lundin, Riccardo Marzuoli, Meelis MÃ¶lder, Leonardo Montagnani, Johan Neirynck, Matthias Peichl, Corinna Rebmann, Eva Rubio, Margarida Santos-Reis, Crystal Schaaf, Marius Schmidt, Guillaume Simioni, Kamel Soudani, and Caroline Vincke

Biogeosciences, 18, 621–635, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-621-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-621-2021, 2021

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Understory vegetation is the most diverse, least understood component of forests worldwide. Understory communities are important drivers of overstory succession and nutrient cycling. Multi-angle remote sensing enables us to describe surface properties by means that are not possible when using mono-angle data. Evaluated over an extensive set of forest ecosystem experimental sites in Europe, our reported method can deliver good retrievals, especially over different forest types with open canopies.

Snow cover duration trends observed at sites and predicted by multiple models

Richard Essery, Hyungjun Kim, Libo Wang, Paul Bartlett, Aaron Boone, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Eleanor Burke, Matthias Cuntz, Bertrand Decharme, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Yeugeniy Gusev, Stefan Hagemann, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Gerhard Krinner, Matthieu Lafaysse, Yves Lejeune, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Christoph Marty, Cecile B. Menard, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, John Pomeroy, Gerd SchÃ¤dler, Vladimir Semenov, Tatiana Smirnova, Sean Swenson, Dmitry Turkov, Nander Wever, and Hua Yuan

The Cryosphere, 14, 4687–4698, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4687-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4687-2020, 2020

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Climate models are uncertain in predicting how warming changes snow cover. This paper compares 22 snow models with the same meteorological inputs. Predicted trends agree with observations at four snow research sites: winter snow cover does not start later, but snow now melts earlier in spring than in the 1980s at two of the sites. Cold regions where snow can last until late summer are predicted to be particularly sensitive to warming because the snow then melts faster at warmer times of year.

Global Carbon Budget 2020

Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le QuÃ©rÃ©, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone Alin, Luiz E. O. C. AragÃ£o, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Selma Bultan, Naveen Chandra, FrÃ©dÃ©ric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Wiley Evans, Liesbeth Florentie, Piers M. Forster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Ian Harris, Kerstin Hartung, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Vassilis Kitidis, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter LandschÃ¼tzer, Nathalie LefÃ¨vre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian RÃ¶denbeck, JÃ¶rg Schwinger, Roland SÃ©fÃ©rian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Adam J. P. Smith, Adrienne J. Sutton, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Guido van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and SÃ¶nke Zaehle

Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3269–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, 2020

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The Global Carbon Budget 2020 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.

Modeling the impacts of diffuse light fraction on photosynthesis in ORCHIDEE (v5453) land surface model

Yuan Zhang, Ana Bastos, Fabienne Maignan, Daniel Goll, Olivier Boucher, Laurent Li, Alessandro Cescatti, Nicolas Vuichard, Xiuzhi Chen, Christof Ammann, M. Altaf Arain, T. Andrew Black, Bogdan Chojnicki, Tomomichi Kato, Ivan Mammarella, Leonardo Montagnani, Olivier Roupsard, Maria J. Sanz, Lukas Siebicke, Marek Urbaniak, Francesco Primo Vaccari, Georg Wohlfahrt, Will Woodgate, and Philippe Ciais

Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5401–5423, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5401-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5401-2020, 2020

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We improved the ORCHIDEE LSM by distinguishing diffuse and direct light in canopy and evaluated the new model with observations from 159 sites. Compared with the old model, the new model has better sunny GPP and reproduced the diffuse light fertilization effect observed at flux sites. Our simulations also indicate different mechanisms causing the observed GPP enhancement under cloudy conditions at different times. The new model has the potential to study large-scale impacts of aerosol changes.

On the role of trend and variability in the hydroxyl radical (OH) in the global methane budget

Yuanhong Zhao, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Xin Lin, Antoine Berchet, Michaela I. Hegglin, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Makoto Deushi, Patrick JÃ¶ckel, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Sarah Strode, Simone Tilmes, Edward J. Dlugokencky, and Bo Zheng

Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13011–13022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13011-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13011-2020, 2020

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Decadal trends and variations in OH are critical for understanding atmospheric CH4 evolution. We quantify the impacts of OH trends and variations on the CH4 budget by conducting CH4 inversions on a decadal scale with an ensemble of OH fields. We find the negative OH anomalies due to enhanced fires can reduce the optimized CH4 emissions by up to 10 Tg yr−1 during El Niño years and the positive OH trend from 1986 to 2010 results in a ∼ 23 Tg yr−1 additional increase in optimized CH4 emissions.

Nitrogen cycling in CMIP6 land surface models: progress and limitations

Taraka Davies-Barnard, Johannes Meyerholt, SÃ¶nke Zaehle, Pierre Friedlingstein, Victor Brovkin, Yuanchao Fan, Rosie A. Fisher, Chris D. Jones, Hanna Lee, Daniele Peano, Benjamin Smith, David WÃ¥rlind, and Andy J. Wiltshire

Biogeosciences, 17, 5129–5148, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, 2020

The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Jared Lewis, Matthew J. Gidden, Elisabeth Vogel, Mandy Freund, Urs Beyerle, Claudia Gessner, Alexander Nauels, Nico Bauer, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Andrew John, Paul B. Krummel, Gunnar Luderer, Nicolai Meinshausen, Stephen A. Montzka, Peter J. Rayner, Stefan Reimann, Steven J. Smith, Marten van den Berg, Guus J. M. Velders, Martin K. Vollmer, and Ray H. J. Wang

Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3571–3605, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020, 2020

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This study provides the future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations under the new set of so-called SSP scenarios (the successors of the IPCC SRES and previous representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios). The projected CO2 concentrations range from 350 ppm for low-emission scenarios by 2150 to more than 2000 ppm under the high-emission scenarios. We also provide concentrations, latitudinal gradients, and seasonality for most of the other 42 considered GHGs.

Influences of hydroxyl radicals (OH) on top-down estimates of the global and regional methane budgets

Yuanhong Zhao, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Xin Lin, Antoine Berchet, Michaela I. Hegglin, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Ray L. Langenfelds, Michel Ramonet, Doug Worthy, and Bo Zheng

Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9525–9546, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9525-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9525-2020, 2020

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The hydroxyl radical (OH), which is the dominant sink of methane (CH4), plays a key role in closing the global methane budget. This study quantifies how uncertainties in the hydroxyl radical can influence top-down estimates of CH4 emissions based on 4D Bayesian inversions with different OH fields and the same surface observations. We show that uncertainties in CH4 emissions driven by different OH fields are comparable to the uncertainties given by current bottom-up and top-down estimations.

Understanding the uncertainty in global forest carbon turnover

Thomas A. M. Pugh, Tim Rademacher, Sarah L. Shafer, JÃ¶rg Steinkamp, Jonathan Barichivich, Brian Beckage, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Harper, Jens Heinke, Kazuya Nishina, Anja Rammig, Hisashi Sato, Almut Arneth, Stijn Hantson, Thomas Hickler, Markus Kautz, Benjamin Quesada, Benjamin Smith, and Kirsten Thonicke

Biogeosciences, 17, 3961–3989, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020, 2020

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The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in the global carbon cycle. Estimates from six contemporary models found this time to range from 12.2 to 23.5 years for the global mean for 1985–2014. Future projections do not give consistent results, but 13 model-based hypotheses are identified, along with recommendations for pragmatic steps to test them using existing and novel observations, which would help to reduce large current uncertainty.

The Global Methane Budget 2000â2017

Marielle Saunois, Ann R. Stavert, Ben Poulter, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Peter A. Raymond, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Sander Houweling, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Ciais, Vivek K. Arora, David Bastviken, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Kimberly M. Carlson, Mark Carrol, Simona Castaldi, Naveen Chandra, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick M. Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles L. Curry, Giuseppe Etiope, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Michaela I. Hegglin, Lena HÃ¶glund-Isaksson, Gustaf Hugelius, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Katherine M. Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Paul B. Krummel, Ray L. Langenfelds, Goulven G. Laruelle, Licheng Liu, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe McNorton, Paul A. Miller, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Jurek MÃ¼ller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Vaishali Naik, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Simon O'Doherty, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, Pierre Regnier, William J. Riley, Judith A. Rosentreter, Arjo Segers, Isobel J. Simpson, Hao Shi, Steven J. Smith, L. Paul Steele, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Francesco N. Tubiello, Aki Tsuruta, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Thomas S. Weber, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray F. Weiss, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Yi Yin, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Zhen Zhang, Yuanhong Zhao, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang

Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1561–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, 2020

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Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. We have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. This is the second version of the review dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down and bottom-up estimates.

Evaluation of global terrestrial evapotranspiration using state-of-the-art approaches in remote sensing, machine learning and land surface modeling

Shufen Pan, Naiqing Pan, Hanqin Tian, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Hao Shi, Vivek K. Arora, Vanessa Haverd, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Catherine OttlÃ©, Benjamin Poulter, SÃ¶nke Zaehle, and Steven W. Running

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1509, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1485-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1485-2020, 2020

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Evapotranspiration (ET) links global water, carbon and energy cycles. We used 4 remote sensing models, 2 machine-learning algorithms and 14 land surface models to analyze the changes in global terrestrial ET. These three categories of approaches agreed well in terms of ET intensity. For 1982–2011, all models showed that Earth greening enhanced terrestrial ET. The small interannual variability of global terrestrial ET suggests it has a potential planetary boundary of around 600 mm yr-1.

Scaling carbon fluxes from eddy covariance sites to globe: synthesis and evaluation of the FLUXCOM approach

Martin Jung, Christopher Schwalm, Mirco Migliavacca, Sophia Walther, Gustau Camps-Valls, Sujan Koirala, Peter Anthoni, Simon Besnard, Paul Bodesheim, Nuno Carvalhais, FrÃ©dÃ©ric Chevallier, Fabian Gans, Daniel S. Goll, Vanessa Haverd, Philipp KÃ¶hler, Kazuhito Ichii, Atul K. Jain, Junzhi Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Jacob A. Nelson, Michael O'Sullivan, Martijn Pallandt, Dario Papale, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Christian RÃ¶denbeck, Stephen Sitch, Gianluca Tramontana, Anthony Walker, Ulrich Weber, and Markus Reichstein

Biogeosciences, 17, 1343–1365, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1343-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1343-2020, 2020

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We test the approach of producing global gridded carbon fluxes based on combining machine learning with local measurements, remote sensing and climate data. We show that we can reproduce seasonal variations in carbon assimilated by plants via photosynthesis and in ecosystem net carbon balance. The ecosystemâs mean carbon balance and carbon flux trends require cautious interpretation. The analysis paves the way for future improvements of the data-driven assessment of carbon fluxes.

Global Carbon Budget 2019

Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le QuÃ©rÃ©, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Laurent Bopp, Erik Buitenhuis, Naveen Chandra, FrÃ©dÃ©ric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Kim I. Currie, Richard A. Feely, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Gruber, SÃ¶ren Gutekunst, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Jed O. Kaplan, Etsushi Kato, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter LandschÃ¼tzer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie LefÃ¨vre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Anna Peregon, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian RÃ¶denbeck, Roland SÃ©fÃ©rian, JÃ¶rg Schwinger, Naomi Smith, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and SÃ¶nke Zaehle

Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1783–1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, 2019

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The Global Carbon Budget 2019 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.

Inter-model comparison of global hydroxyl radical (OH) distributions and their impact on atmospheric methane over the 2000â2016 period

Yuanhong Zhao, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Xin Lin, Antoine Berchet, Michaela I. Hegglin, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Sophie Szopa, Ann R. Stavert, Nathan Luke Abraham, Alex T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick JÃ¶ckel, BÃ©atrice Josse, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Virginie MarÃ©cal, Fiona M. O'Connor, David A. Plummer, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Sarah Strode, Simone Tilmes, Edward J. Dlugokencky, and Bo Zheng

Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13701–13723, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13701-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13701-2019, 2019

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The role of hydroxyl radical changes in methane trends is debated, hindering our understanding of the methane cycle. This study quantifies how uncertainties in the hydroxyl radical may influence methane abundance in the atmosphere based on the inter-model comparison of hydroxyl radical fields and model simulations of CH4 abundance with different hydroxyl radical scenarios during 2000–2016. We show that hydroxyl radical changes could contribute up to 54 % of model-simulated methane biases.

Contrasting effects of CO2 fertilization, land-use change and warming on seasonal amplitude of Northern Hemisphere CO2 exchange

Ana Bastos, Philippe Ciais, FrÃ©dÃ©ric Chevallier, Christian RÃ¶denbeck, Ashley P. Ballantyne, Fabienne Maignan, Yi Yin, Marcos FernÃ¡ndez-MartÃ­nez, Pierre Friedlingstein, Josep PeÃ±uelas, Shilong L. Piao, Stephen Sitch, William K. Smith, Xuhui Wang, Zaichun Zhu, Vanessa Haverd, Etsushi Kato, Atul K. Jain, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Poulter, and Dan Zhu

Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12361–12375, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12361-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12361-2019, 2019

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Here we show that land-surface models improved their ability to simulate the increase in the amplitude of seasonal CO2-cycle exchange (SCANBP) by ecosystems compared to estimates by two atmospheric inversions. We find a dominant role of vegetation growth over boreal Eurasia to the observed increase in SCANBP, strongly driven by CO2 fertilization, and an overall negative effect of temperature on SCANBP. Biases can be explained by the sensitivity of simulated microbial respiration to temperature.

Perfluorocyclobutane (PFC-318, c-C4F8) in the global atmosphere

Jens MÃ¼hle, Cathy M. Trudinger, Luke M. Western, Matthew Rigby, Martin K. Vollmer, Sunyoung Park, Alistair J. Manning, Daniel Say, Anita Ganesan, L. Paul Steele, Diane J. Ivy, Tim Arnold, Shanlan Li, Andreas Stohl, Christina M. Harth, Peter K. Salameh, Archie McCulloch, Simon O'Doherty, Mi-Kyung Park, Chun Ok Jo, Dickon Young, Kieran M. Stanley, Paul B. Krummel, Blagoj Mitrevski, Ove Hermansen, Chris Lunder, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Bo Yao, Jooil Kim, Benjamin Hmiel, Christo Buizert, Vasilii V. Petrenko, Jgor Arduini, Michela Maione, David M. Etheridge, Eleni Michalopoulou, Mike Czerniak, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Stefan Reimann, Peter G. Simmonds, Paul J. Fraser, Ronald G. Prinn, and Ray F. Weiss

Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 10335–10359, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10335-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10335-2019, 2019

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We discuss atmospheric concentrations and emissions of the strong greenhouse gas perfluorocyclobutane. A large fraction of recent emissions stem from China, India, and Russia, probably as a by-product from the production of fluoropolymers and fluorochemicals. Most historic emissions likely stem from developed countries. Total emissions are higher than what is being reported. Clearly, more measurements and better reporting are needed to understand emissions of this and other greenhouse gases.

The multiscale routing model mRM v1.0: simple river routing at resolutions from 1 to 50 km

Stephan Thober, Matthias Cuntz, Matthias Kelbling, Rohini Kumar, Juliane Mai, and Luis Samaniego

Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2501–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2501-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2501-2019, 2019

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We present a model that aggregates simulated runoff along a river (i.e. a routing model). The unique feature of the model is that it can be run at multiple resolutions without any modifications to the input data. The model internally (dis-)aggregates all input data to the resolution given by the user. The model performance does not depend on the chosen resolution. This allows efficient model calibration at coarse resolution and subsequent model application at fine resolution.

Revised records of atmospheric trace gases CO2, CH4, N2O, and Î´13C-CO2 over the last 2000Â years from Law Dome, Antarctica

Mauro Rubino, David M. Etheridge, David P. Thornton, Russell Howden, Colin E. Allison, Roger J. Francey, Ray L. Langenfelds, L. Paul Steele, Cathy M. Trudinger, Darren A. Spencer, Mark A. J. Curran, Tas D. van Ommen, and Andrew M. Smith

Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 473–492, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-473-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-473-2019, 2019

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The scientific community uses numerical models to predict future atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases causing global warming. This study presents the history of atmospheric concentration of the major greenhouse gases over the last 2000 years measured in ice core bubbles from the site of Law Dome (East Antarctica). The associated dataset is useful to test climate models and help provide accurate predictions of future climate change.

Abundances, emissions, and loss processes of the long-lived and potent greenhouse gas octafluorooxolane (octafluorotetrahydrofuran, c-C4F8O) in the atmosphere

Martin K. Vollmer, FranÃ§ois Bernard, Blagoj Mitrevski, L. Paul Steele, Cathy M. Trudinger, Stefan Reimann, Ray L. Langenfelds, Paul B. Krummel, Paul J. Fraser, David M. Etheridge, Mark A. J. Curran, and James B. Burkholder

Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 3481–3492, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3481-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3481-2019, 2019

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We have discovered a new compound in the atmosphere, octafluorooxolane (c-C4F8O), from measurements in archived air samples. From our laboratory studies, we find that c-C4F8O is a very powerful greenhouse gas thereby contributing to global warming, and that it has a very long atmospheric lifetime of more than 3500 years. Based on our measurements we could reconstruct its atmospheric evolution over more than 4 decades. Based on this, we could estimate the global emissions of c-C4F8O.

ESM-SnowMIP: assessing snow models and quantifying snow-related climate feedbacks

Gerhard Krinner, Chris Derksen, Richard Essery, Mark Flanner, Stefan Hagemann, Martyn Clark, Alex Hall, Helmut Rott, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Hyungjun Kim, CÃ©cile B. MÃ©nard, Lawrence Mudryk, Chad Thackeray, Libo Wang, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Paul Bartlett, Julia Boike, Aaron Boone, FrÃ©dÃ©rique ChÃ©ruy, Jeanne Colin, Matthias Cuntz, Yongjiu Dai, Bertrand Decharme, Jeff Derry, AgnÃ¨s Ducharne, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Charles Fierz, Josephine Ghattas, Yeugeniy Gusev, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Matthieu Lafaysse, Rachel Law, Dave Lawrence, Weiping Li, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Martin MÃ©nÃ©goz, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, Masashi Niwano, John Pomeroy, Mark S. Raleigh, Gerd Schaedler, Vladimir Semenov, Tanya G. Smirnova, Tobias Stacke, Ulrich Strasser, Sean Svenson, Dmitry Turkov, Tao Wang, Nander Wever, Hua Yuan, Wenyan Zhou, and Dan Zhu

Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5027–5049, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, 2018

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This paper provides an overview of a coordinated international experiment to determine the strengths and weaknesses in how climate models treat snow. The models will be assessed at point locations using high-quality reference measurements and globally using satellite-derived datasets. How well climate models simulate snow-related processes is important because changing snow cover is an important part of the global climate system and provides an important freshwater resource for human use.

Global Carbon Budget 2018

Corinne Le QuÃ©rÃ©, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Judith Hauck, Julia Pongratz, Penelope A. Pickers, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Laurent Bopp, FrÃ©dÃ©ric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Scott C. Doney, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Forrest M. Hoffman, Mario Hoppema, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Truls Johannessen, Chris D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Peter LandschÃ¼tzer, Nathalie LefÃ¨vre, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Are Olsen, Tsueno Ono, Prabir Patra, Anna Peregon, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Matthias Rocher, Christian RÃ¶denbeck, Ute Schuster, JÃ¶rg Schwinger, Roland SÃ©fÃ©rian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Adrienne Sutton, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. va