{"entry_id": "bb33da57-ac2e-48b7-891d-9a1050227026", "infos": [{"txt": "header", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 0, "bbox": [[0.051, 0.023, 0.318, 0.052]]}]}, "tags": ["header"], "label": "O", "web_segment_id": 1, "global_sentence_id": 0, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "header", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 0, "bbox": [[0.842, 0.032, 0.955, 0.045]]}]}, "tags": ["header"], "label": "O", "web_segment_id": 2, "global_sentence_id": 1, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "消费强，投资弱，增长惯性下不急于降息", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 100000, "bbox": [[0.093, 0.126, 0.575, 0.145]]}]}, "tags": ["title"], "label": "article_title", "web_segment_id": 3, "global_sentence_id": 2, "edu_l1_label": "BOT"}, {"txt": "figure", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 200000, "bbox": [[0.067, 0.123, 0.091, 0.175]]}]}, "tags": ["figure"], "label": "figure", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 3, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "--美国四季度GDP数据                      2025年1月31日", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 300000, "bbox": [[0.425, 0.164, 0.697, 0.173], [0.835, 0.163, 0.949, 0.173]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "figure_title", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 4, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "·    四季度GDP实际增长弱于预期，但结构不差，消费偏强而投资由设备类和库存带动走弱，政府消费依然稳定托底；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 400000, "bbox": [[0.117, 0.224, 0.126, 0.23], [0.154, 0.223, 0.687, 0.231], [0.154, 0.239, 0.262, 0.246]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 5, "edu_l1_label": "BOS"}, {"txt": "通胀压力亦不明显：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 400000, "bbox": [[0.262, 0.239, 0.38, 0.246]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 6, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "2024年四季度GDP环比折年率初值为2.3%，低于2.6％的市场预期，同比增速2.5%，名义同比增速5.0%;", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 400000, "bbox": [[0.38, 0.239, 0.687, 0.247], [0.153, 0.255, 0.479, 0.263]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 7, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "2024年三季度GDP环比折年率为3.1％。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 400000, "bbox": [[0.479, 0.255, 0.686, 0.263], [0.153, 0.271, 0.186, 0.279]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 8, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "2024全年来看，美国GDP实际同比增长2.8%，名义同比增长5.3％。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 400000, "bbox": [[0.186, 0.271, 0.595, 0.279]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 9, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "2024年四季度消费环比折年率4.2%（前值3.7%)，私人投资总额环比折年率-5.6%（前值0.8%)，净出口对GDP做出0.04个百分点的贡献，库存小幅回落拉动GDP下行0.93个百分点，政府支出环比折年率2.5%（前值5.1%）。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 400000, "bbox": [[0.595, 0.271, 0.686, 0.279], [0.154, 0.287, 0.687, 0.295], [0.154, 0.304, 0.687, 0.311], [0.154, 0.319, 0.302, 0.327]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 10, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "PCE通胀增速从前值1.5％升至2.3%，核心PCE通胀从前值2.2％升至2.5%，价格增长虽然稍有加速，但压力可控，带动名义GDP健康增长。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 400000, "bbox": [[0.302, 0.319, 0.686, 0.327], [0.154, 0.335, 0.579, 0.343]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 11, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "·   虽然整体低于预期，但强韧的消费意味着GDP的实际增长惯性保持，周期性项目增长也不弱：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 500000, "bbox": [[0.117, 0.362, 0.125, 0.368], [0.154, 0.361, 0.683, 0.368]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 7, "global_sentence_id": 12, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "增长结构无明显问题，“薪资-消费”的正向循环仍然健康，服务消费坚挺的同时耐用品消费环比加速，政府支出也依然起到稳定托底的作用。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 500000, "bbox": [[0.154, 0.376, 0.687, 0.384], [0.154, 0.393, 0.404, 0.401]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 7, "global_sentence_id": 13, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "美国经济在高利率环境下继续维持了超过疫情前斜率和CBO预测的增长，剔除扰动较强的净出口、库存和政府支出后的实际增长约为2.72%：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 500000, "bbox": [[0.404, 0.393, 0.688, 0.4], [0.154, 0.409, 0.668, 0.417]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 7, "global_sentence_id": 14, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "低波动项目较三季度的2.86％仅略有放缓；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 500000, "bbox": [[0.668, 0.409, 0.687, 0.417], [0.154, 0.425, 0.38, 0.433]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 7, "global_sentence_id": 15, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "从周期性项目（商品消费，建筑、住宅和设备投资）来看，其实际对GDP的拉动为1.13%，同样仅是略有缓和，这意味着当前美联储谨慎观察并温和降息的路径是较为明智的选择。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 500000, "bbox": [[0.38, 0.425, 0.687, 0.432], [0.155, 0.441, 0.687, 0.449], [0.154, 0.457, 0.322, 0.465]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 7, "global_sentence_id": 16, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "·   消费的表现继续超出预期，服务消费可持续性较好：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 600000, "bbox": [[0.117, 0.483, 0.125, 0.489], [0.154, 0.482, 0.438, 0.489]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 8, "global_sentence_id": 17, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "实际最终销售同比增速从前值3.11％稍降至3.04%(2022年一季度以来第二高）；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 600000, "bbox": [[0.438, 0.482, 0.686, 0.489], [0.153, 0.499, 0.365, 0.506]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 8, "global_sentence_id": 18, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "耐用品消费进一步超预期主要来自于娱乐商品与车辆、机动车以及零部件（主要是信息处理设备和新轻型卡车），其他非耐用品的增长稍放缓；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 600000, "bbox": [[0.365, 0.499, 0.686, 0.506], [0.154, 0.514, 0.631, 0.522]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 8, "global_sentence_id": 19, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "服务仍略有加速，医疗保健消费增长较快，医院、门诊和养老服务支出加速。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 600000, "bbox": [[0.631, 0.514, 0.686, 0.522], [0.154, 0.53, 0.524, 0.539]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 8, "global_sentence_id": 20, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "·   投资是四季度经济增长的主要拖累项，建筑和此前增长较快的设备均环比负增长，库存进一步降低，上述三项拖累GDP 环比折年率下行1.38个百分点：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 700000, "bbox": [[0.117, 0.557, 0.126, 0.562], [0.154, 0.555, 0.687, 0.564], [0.154, 0.571, 0.49, 0.579]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 9, "global_sentence_id": 21, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "设备类投资环比负增长的主要原因是，此前表现较好的电脑和相关设备以及交运设备投资减少，从同比增速来看，电脑设备增速降至13.27%（前值27.72%)，交运设备降至6.74%（前值6.95%)；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 700000, "bbox": [[0.49, 0.571, 0.687, 0.579], [0.154, 0.587, 0.686, 0.595], [0.155, 0.603, 0.53, 0.612]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 9, "global_sentence_id": 22, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "设备类投资放缓并不意味着投资受到高利率和特朗普不确定性显著的打击，电脑设备仅是从三季度过高的增长斜率放缓，而交运类实际投资也基本恢复至疫情前水平。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 700000, "bbox": [[0.53, 0.603, 0.686, 0.612], [0.154, 0.619, 0.686, 0.628], [0.154, 0.636, 0.387, 0.644]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 9, "global_sentence_id": 23, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "不过，我们仍认为2025年消费是帮助美国经济“软着陆”的核心支撑，设备和知识产权类投资在AI不确定性和偏高利率下增长会较为波折，而住宅投资可能仍是“K”型复苏。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 700000, "bbox": [[0.387, 0.636, 0.687, 0.644], [0.154, 0.652, 0.679, 0.66], [0.155, 0.668, 0.324, 0.676]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 9, "global_sentence_id": 24, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "·   政府支出继续托底，物价压力有限：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 800000, "bbox": [[0.117, 0.694, 0.125, 0.7], [0.154, 0.694, 0.353, 0.701]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 10, "global_sentence_id": 25, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "联邦政府支出主要集中在国防消费支出，而地方政府支出则是由雇员薪资驱动。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 800000, "bbox": [[0.353, 0.694, 0.686, 0.701], [0.154, 0.709, 0.26, 0.717]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 10, "global_sentence_id": 26, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "从2025财年第一财季已经超过7100亿美元的净赤字来看，财政可以继续支撑经济稳健增长。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 800000, "bbox": [[0.26, 0.709, 0.687, 0.717], [0.154, 0.725, 0.26, 0.733]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 10, "global_sentence_id": 27, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "物价平减指数方面，季度PCE和核心PCE虽然略有回升，但并未显示显著的上行压力，2025年一季度PCE通胀应因基数效应和价格增速温和放缓而进一步下行，如果特朗普没有过大的关税加征和驱逐移民动作，应不会成为美联储考虑降息的显著阻碍，而转为加息并无必要。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 800000, "bbox": [[0.26, 0.725, 0.686, 0.733], [0.154, 0.741, 0.686, 0.749], [0.154, 0.758, 0.687, 0.765], [0.154, 0.774, 0.211, 0.781]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 10, "global_sentence_id": 28, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "·   市场方面，虽然GDP整体弱于预期，但其不弱的内在增长结构并未令投资者产生过多担忧，对市场的影响有限：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 900000, "bbox": [[0.117, 0.8, 0.125, 0.805], [0.154, 0.799, 0.686, 0.807], [0.154, 0.815, 0.249, 0.822]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 11, "global_sentence_id": 29, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "CME 数据显示联邦基金利率期货交易者依然维持了年内进行两次25BP 降息的预期，较1月FOMC会议后变动不大。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 900000, "bbox": [[0.249, 0.815, 0.686, 0.822], [0.154, 0.831, 0.387, 0.838]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 11, "global_sentence_id": 30, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "美国三大股指小幅高开后整体收涨，10年期美债收益率稍降至4.51%，美元指数上行至108.1505，可能与特朗普在尾盘表示将在2月1日对加拿大和墨西哥加征25％的关税言论有关。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 900000, "bbox": [[0.387, 0.831, 0.687, 0.838], [0.154, 0.846, 0.687, 0.854], [0.154, 0.862, 0.359, 0.87]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 11, "global_sentence_id": 31, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "同时，欧央行同日降息25BP 并依然维持了较为鸽派的态度，继续对美元指数形成支撑。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 900000, "bbox": [[0.359, 0.862, 0.686, 0.871], [0.154, 0.879, 0.322, 0.887]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 11, "global_sentence_id": 32, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "伦敦黄金在诸多不确定性的影响下升至2793.465美元／盎司，创下历史新高。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 900000, "bbox": [[0.322, 0.879, 0.686, 0.887], [0.155, 0.895, 0.222, 0.903]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 11, "global_sentence_id": 33, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "分析师", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1000000, "bbox": [[0.713, 0.223, 0.758, 0.233]]}]}, "tags": ["title"], "label": "author", "web_segment_id": 12, "global_sentence_id": 34, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "张迪", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1100000, "bbox": [[0.713, 0.243, 0.74, 0.252]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "author", "web_segment_id": 13, "global_sentence_id": 35, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": ":", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1100000, "bbox": [[0.728, 0.264, 0.735, 0.269]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "author", "web_segment_id": 14, "global_sentence_id": 36, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "010-8092-7737", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1100000, "bbox": [[0.735, 0.264, 0.83, 0.27]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "author", "web_segment_id": 14, "global_sentence_id": 37, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "figure", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": 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{"txt": "yujintong_yj@chinastock.com.cn", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1300000, "bbox": [[0.734, 0.353, 0.959, 0.36]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "author", "web_segment_id": 19, "global_sentence_id": 45, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "分析师登记编码：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1400000, "bbox": [[0.715, 0.369, 0.81, 0.378]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "author", "web_segment_id": 20, "global_sentence_id": 46, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "S0130524080003", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1400000, "bbox": [[0.81, 0.369, 0.923, 0.378]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "author", "web_segment_id": 20, "global_sentence_id": 47, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "风险提示", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1500000, "bbox": [[0.713, 0.499, 0.772, 0.509]]}]}, "tags": ["title"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 21, "global_sentence_id": 48, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "1．美国劳动市场和经济数据超预期上行的风险", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1600000, "bbox": [[0.712, 0.529, 0.932, 0.535]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 22, "global_sentence_id": 49, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "2．美国银行系统意外出现流动性问题的风险", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1700000, "bbox": [[0.712, 0.546, 0.921, 0.553]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 23, "global_sentence_id": 50, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "3．特朗普政策超预期刺激通胀的风险", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1800000, "bbox": [[0.712, 0.562, 0.888, 0.569]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 24, "global_sentence_id": 51, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "footer", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1900000, "bbox": [[0.068, 0.949, 0.799, 0.965]]}]}, "tags": ["footer"], "label": "O", "web_segment_id": 25, "global_sentence_id": 52, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "header", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1900000, "bbox": [[0.055, 0.024, 0.322, 0.052]]}]}, "tags": ["header"], "label": "O", "web_segment_id": 1, "global_sentence_id": 53, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "header", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1900000, "bbox": [[0.844, 0.032, 0.955, 0.045]]}]}, "tags": ["header"], "label": "O", "web_segment_id": 2, "global_sentence_id": 54, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "、消费增长稳固，投资疲弱", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2000000, "bbox": [[0.31, 0.11, 0.655, 0.116]]}]}, "tags": ["title"], "label": "title1", "web_segment_id": 3, "global_sentence_id": 55, "edu_l1_label": "BOS"}, {"txt": "1月30日，美国2024年四季度GDP初值公布，环比折年率为2.3%，低于2.6％的市场预期，同比增速2.5%，名义同比增速5.0%;", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2100000, "bbox": [[0.295, 0.138, 0.945, 0.147], [0.264, 0.156, 0.524, 0.165]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 56, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "2024年三季度GDP环比折年率为3.1％。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2100000, "bbox": [[0.524, 0.156, 0.813, 0.166]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 57, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "2024全年来看，美国GDP实际同比增长2.8%，名义同比增长5.3%，通胀水平同样保持相对稳定。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2100000, "bbox": [[0.813, 0.156, 0.95, 0.166], [0.264, 0.175, 0.813, 0.184]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 58, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "具体来看，2024年四季度消费环比折年率4.2%（前值3.7%)，私人投资总额环比折年率-5.6%（前值0.8%)，净出口对GDP做出0.04个百分点的贡献，库存小幅回落拉动GDP下行0.93个百分点，政府支出环比折年率2.5%（前值5.1%）。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2100000, "bbox": [[0.813, 0.175, 0.949, 0.184], [0.264, 0.194, 0.95, 0.203], [0.264, 0.213, 0.951, 0.221], [0.264, 0.232, 0.41, 0.241]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 59, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "价格数据方面，PCE通胀增速从前值1.5％升至2.3%，核心PCE通胀从前值2.2％升至2.5%，价格增长虽然稍有加速，但压力可控，带动名义GDP健康增长。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2100000, "bbox": [[0.41, 0.232, 0.95, 0.24], [0.264, 0.25, 0.819, 0.26]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 60, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "整体来看，2024年四季度的GDP有几个特征：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2200000, "bbox": [[0.295, 0.269, 0.628, 0.279]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 61, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "(1）虽然整体低于预期，但强韧的消费意味着GDP的实际增长惯性保持，增长结构也无明显问题，“薪资-消费”的正向循环仍然健康，服务消费坚挺的同时耐用品消费环比加速，政府支出也依然起到稳定托底的作用；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2200000, "bbox": [[0.628, 0.269, 0.95, 0.279], [0.264, 0.288, 0.95, 0.298], [0.265, 0.306, 0.715, 0.316]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 62, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "投资项负增长则主要是受到库存减少和设备投资放缓的显著拖累。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2200000, "bbox": [[0.715, 0.306, 0.951, 0.317], [0.265, 0.326, 0.473, 0.336]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 63, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "（2）美国经济在高利率环境下继续维持了超过疫情前斜率和 CBO 预测的增长，剔除扰动较强的净出口、库存和政府支出后的实际增长约为2.72%，较三季度的2.86％仅略有放缓；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2200000, "bbox": [[0.473, 0.326, 0.95, 0.336], [0.264, 0.344, 0.95, 0.354], [0.266, 0.364, 0.319, 0.372]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 64, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "从周期性项目（商品消费，建筑、住宅和设备投资）来看，其实际对GDP的拉动为1.13%，同样仅是略有缓和，这意味着当前美联储谨慎观察并温和降息的路径是较为明智的选择。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2200000, "bbox": [[0.319, 0.364, 0.945, 0.374], [0.264, 0.382, 0.866, 0.391]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 65, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "（3）消费的表现继续超出预期，服务消费可持续性较好：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2200000, "bbox": [[0.866, 0.382, 0.95, 0.391], [0.264, 0.401, 0.545, 0.41]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 66, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "实际最终销售同比增速从前值3.11％稍降至3.04%(2022年一季度以来第二高）；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2200000, "bbox": [[0.545, 0.401, 0.95, 0.41], [0.266, 0.419, 0.418, 0.43]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 67, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "耐用品消费进一步超预期主要来自于娱乐商品与车辆、机动车以及零部件（主要是信息处理设备和新轻型卡车），其他非耐用品的增长稍放缓；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2200000, "bbox": [[0.418, 0.419, 0.95, 0.429], [0.265, 0.439, 0.695, 0.448]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 68, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "服务仍略有加速，医疗保健消费增长较快，医院、门诊和养老服务支出加速。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2200000, "bbox": [[0.695, 0.439, 0.951, 0.448], [0.264, 0.457, 0.533, 0.467]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 69, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "（4）投资是四季度经济增长的主要拖累项，建筑和此前增长较快的设备均环比负增长，库存进一步降低，上述三项拖累GDP环比折年率下行1.38个百分点；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2200000, "bbox": [[0.533, 0.457, 0.95, 0.467], [0.266, 0.476, 0.9, 0.486]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 70, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "住宅投资在连续两个季度负增长后环比折年率恢复至5.3%，但在高利率和新房库存偏高的环境下预计难以持续恢复。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2200000, "bbox": [[0.9, 0.476, 0.95, 0.486], [0.265, 0.496, 0.95, 0.505], [0.264, 0.514, 0.317, 0.524]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 71, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "设备类投资环比负增长的主要原因是，此前表现较好的电脑和相关设备以及交运设备投资减少，从同比增速来看，电脑设备增速降至13.27%（前值27.72%)，交运设备降至6.74%（前值6.95%)；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2200000, "bbox": [[0.317, 0.514, 0.957, 0.526], [0.265, 0.533, 0.942, 0.543]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 72, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "设备类投资放缓并不意味着投资受到高利率和特朗普不确定性显著的打击，电脑设备仅是从三季度过高的增长斜率放缓，而交运类实际投资也基本恢复至疫情前水平。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2200000, "bbox": [[0.265, 0.552, 0.949, 0.561], [0.265, 0.571, 0.682, 0.581]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 73, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "不过，我们仍认为2025年消费是帮助美国经济“软着陆”的核心支撑，设备和知识产权类投资在AI不确定性和偏高利率下增长会较为波折，而住宅投资可能仍是高端市场较好而中低端投资偏弱的“K”型复苏。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2200000, "bbox": [[0.682, 0.571, 0.949, 0.58], [0.265, 0.59, 0.956, 0.6], [0.265, 0.609, 0.73, 0.619]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 74, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "（5）政府的高赤字继续托底经济，联邦政府支出主要集中在国防消费支出，而地方政府支出则是由雇员薪资驱动。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2200000, "bbox": [[0.73, 0.609, 0.956, 0.619], [0.264, 0.628, 0.787, 0.638]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 75, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "从2025财年第一财季已经超过7100亿美元的净赤字来看，财政可以继续支撑经济稳健增长。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2200000, "bbox": [[0.787, 0.628, 0.95, 0.637], [0.265, 0.647, 0.746, 0.656]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 76, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "（6）物价平减指数方面，季度PCE和核心PCE虽然略有回升，但并未显示显著的上行压力，2025年一季度PCE通胀应因基数效应和价格增速温和放缓而进一步下行，如果特朗普没有过大的关税加征和驱逐移民动作，应不会成为美联储考虑降息的显著阻碍，而转为加息并无必要。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2200000, "bbox": [[0.746, 0.647, 0.95, 0.656], [0.264, 0.666, 0.95, 0.675], [0.265, 0.684, 0.95, 0.694], [0.264, 0.703, 0.573, 0.713]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 77, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "footer", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2300000, "bbox": [[0.068, 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# 消费强，投资弱，增长惯性下不急于降息
## 、消费增长稳固，投资疲弱
## 二、风险提示
### （1）美国劳动市场数据和经济超预期上行的风险
### （2）美国银行系统意外出现流动性问题的风险
### （3）特朗普政策超预期刺激通胀的风险
