{"entry_id": "8977569c-2c8d-4fda-8e11-dc10b0c0ed56", "infos": [{"txt": "header", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 0, "bbox": [[0.051, 0.023, 0.318, 0.052]]}]}, "tags": ["header"], "label": "O", "web_segment_id": 1, "global_sentence_id": 0, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "header", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 0, "bbox": [[0.842, 0.032, 0.955, 0.045]]}]}, "tags": ["header"], "label": "O", "web_segment_id": 2, "global_sentence_id": 1, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "劳动数据如何反映联邦政府裁员的影响？", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 100000, "bbox": [[0.092, 0.126, 0.561, 0.143]]}]}, "tags": ["title"], "label": "article_title", "web_segment_id": 3, "global_sentence_id": 2, "edu_l1_label": "BOT"}, {"txt": "figure", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 200000, "bbox": [[0.068, 0.122, 0.09, 0.175]]}]}, "tags": ["figure"], "label": "figure", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 3, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "--美国2月劳动数据                        2025年3月8日", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 300000, "bbox": [[0.505, 0.166, 0.685, 0.172], [0.842, 0.163, 0.949, 0.172]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "figure_title", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 4, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "·   新增非农就业略低于预期，失业率升至4.1%，时薪同比增速4.02%：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 400000, "bbox": [[0.117, 0.223, 0.126, 0.23], [0.154, 0.222, 0.622, 0.23]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 5, "edu_l1_label": "BOS"}, {"txt": "单位调查（establishment survey）方面，2月新增岗位15.1万个，稍低于16万个的预期。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 400000, "bbox": [[0.622, 0.222, 0.687, 0.231], [0.16, 0.239, 0.673, 0.247]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 6, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "1月新增就业从14.3万个下修至12.5万个，12月新增就业从30.7万个上修至32.3万个。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 400000, "bbox": [[0.673, 0.239, 0.687, 0.247], [0.154, 0.255, 0.68, 0.264]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 7, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "非农时薪增速环比0.28%，前值略下修至0.42%；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 400000, "bbox": [[0.154, 0.27, 0.457, 0.279]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 8, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "同比增速为4.02%，近期变化不大。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 400000, "bbox": [[0.457, 0.27, 0.683, 0.279]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 9, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "家庭调查（household survey）方面，失业率升至4.1%，高于4.0％的预期，劳动参与率稍升至62.4％。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 400000, "bbox": [[0.154, 0.287, 0.687, 0.295], [0.154, 0.302, 0.272, 0.311]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 10, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "2025年2月家庭全职就业总数环比减少122.0万人，1月家庭就业因年度调整上修238.6万人后出现回落；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 400000, "bbox": [[0.272, 0.302, 0.687, 0.311], [0.154, 0.319, 0.391, 0.328]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 11, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "兼职就业总数仅减少1.7万人。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 400000, "bbox": [[0.391, 0.319, 0.579, 0.328]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 12, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "·特朗普政府的裁员计划对哥伦比亚特区影响更为明显，自愿辞职计划冲击可能四季度才会显现：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 500000, "bbox": [[0.117, 0.346, 0.688, 0.353], [0.154, 0.36, 0.19, 0.368]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 7, "global_sentence_id": 13, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "服务就业方面未来可能需要注意的是，如果特朗普政府的预算为了缩减赤字而开始显著削减Medicaid，那么相关就业可能会受到打击。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 500000, "bbox": [[0.19, 0.36, 0.687, 0.368], [0.154, 0.376, 0.48, 0.384]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 7, "global_sentence_id": 14, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "政府就业方面，2月新增就业缓和至1.1万人，联邦政府雇员减少了约1万人，但由于特朗普此前提出的2月6日前辞职可领薪资至9月底的裁员计划，对联邦雇员的显著冲击可能需要到四季度数据中才能体现。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 500000, "bbox": [[0.48, 0.376, 0.687, 0.384], [0.155, 0.393, 0.686, 0.4], [0.154, 0.408, 0.68, 0.417]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 7, "global_sentence_id": 15, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "不过，哥伦比亚特区的失业金初请人数已经从400到800人左右跃升至1600人上方，即政府效率部（DOGE）的人员裁撤影响已经开始显现，但还不至于影响全国失业率。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 500000, "bbox": [[0.154, 0.425, 0.687, 0.432], [0.154, 0.44, 0.659, 0.448]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 7, "global_sentence_id": 16, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "虽然大规模限制和驱逐移民目前尚未落地，在裁员、控制赤字等方案下，劳动市场面临的下行风险依然更高，短期继续处于缓慢弱化的状态。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 500000, "bbox": [[0.659, 0.44, 0.688, 0.449], [0.154, 0.456, 0.686, 0.465], [0.154, 0.473, 0.429, 0.481]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 7, "global_sentence_id": 17, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "·  制造业在偏高利率和关税扰动下依然难有起色：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 600000, "bbox": [[0.118, 0.499, 0.126, 0.505], [0.154, 0.498, 0.432, 0.505]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 8, "global_sentence_id": 18, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "商品生产依然维持弱势，2月ISM制造业PMI的就业环比回落，新订单也预示生产大幅改善的概率不高；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 600000, "bbox": [[0.432, 0.498, 0.686, 0.505], [0.154, 0.514, 0.535, 0.522]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 8, "global_sentence_id": 19, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "我们认为特朗普政策目前对于中小企业包括减税在内的利好较难实现，且关税造成成本端和预期的扰动，这意味着制造业在利率明显降低前难以明显恢复。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 600000, "bbox": [[0.535, 0.514, 0.687, 0.523], [0.154, 0.53, 0.687, 0.538], [0.154, 0.545, 0.398, 0.554]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 8, "global_sentence_id": 20, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "尽管前两个月的新增非农就业人数略低于预期，但费城联储的就业同步指标同比增速维持2.65%（衰退阈值需要2.5％以下），劳动市场并不会拖累经济进入小幅衰退状态，也不需要偏早的降息。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 600000, "bbox": [[0.398, 0.545, 0.679, 0.555], [0.154, 0.562, 0.687, 0.57], [0.155, 0.578, 0.484, 0.587]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 8, "global_sentence_id": 21, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "· 劳动市场弱化支持年内降息，但“薪资-消费”循环意味着经济暂不会大幅走弱：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 700000, "bbox": [[0.118, 0.604, 0.126, 0.61], [0.154, 0.603, 0.628, 0.611]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 9, "global_sentence_id": 22, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "2月劳动市场整体体现出略弱于预期的状态，但依然没有达到需要让美联储考虑降息的条件。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 700000, "bbox": [[0.628, 0.603, 0.687, 0.611], [0.154, 0.619, 0.657, 0.628]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 9, "global_sentence_id": 23, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "我们认为较为可能触发进一步降息的条件包括（1）非农新增就业开始稳定的低于10万岗位／月，(2）失业率再度接近4.4％左右的自然失业率水平。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 700000, "bbox": [[0.657, 0.619, 0.686, 0.628], [0.154, 0.635, 0.685, 0.643], [0.154, 0.651, 0.481, 0.659]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 9, "global_sentence_id": 24, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "不过以目前的就业情况和薪资增速来看，劳动市场依然不存在短期快速下滑的风险，而特朗普政府的裁员计划可能要等到四季度才会更明显的显现。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 700000, "bbox": [[0.481, 0.651, 0.687, 0.659], [0.155, 0.667, 0.686, 0.675], [0.154, 0.683, 0.299, 0.69]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 9, "global_sentence_id": 25, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "我们继续维持2025年有望降息3次，首次降息在年中出现的判断。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 700000, "bbox": [[0.299, 0.683, 0.686, 0.691], [0.153, 0.699, 0.175, 0.708]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 9, "global_sentence_id": 26, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "劳动市场的逐步弱化与经济开始放缓相匹配，未来的情况是经济温和下行、经济大幅下行还是滞胀似乎取决于特朗普政府的财政紧缩以及关税力度，而美联储的货币政策只能相对被动的对不确定性作出反应。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 700000, "bbox": [[0.175, 0.699, 0.687, 0.707], [0.156, 0.716, 0.686, 0.723], [0.154, 0.732, 0.35, 0.739]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 9, "global_sentence_id": 27, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "·市场对劳动市场稍弱反应有限，待增长担忧充分定价后美股依然存在机会：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 800000, "bbox": [[0.117, 0.758, 0.126, 0.764], [0.154, 0.757, 0.6, 0.765]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 10, "global_sentence_id": 28, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "我们认为年内三次左右降息的预期较为合理，这意味着美债收益率在经济数据明显弱化前，进一步降至4.0％以下的概率不高。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 800000, "bbox": [[0.6, 0.757, 0.687, 0.765], [0.154, 0.773, 0.685, 0.781], [0.154, 0.789, 0.292, 0.798]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 10, "global_sentence_id": 29, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "如果关税进一步落地并在通胀数据中显现，需要警惕降息预期再度开始压缩的可能。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 800000, "bbox": [[0.292, 0.789, 0.687, 0.798], [0.154, 0.805, 0.259, 0.814]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 10, "global_sentence_id": 30, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "CME数据显示联邦基金利率期货交易者预期2025年在6、7、10月出现三次降息。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 800000, "bbox": [[0.259, 0.805, 0.686, 0.813], [0.154, 0.821, 0.233, 0.83]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 10, "global_sentence_id": 31, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "美债收益率小幅回升，10年期收益率上行1.89BP至4.297%；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 800000, "bbox": [[0.233, 0.821, 0.614, 0.829]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 10, "global_sentence_id": 32, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "美元指数在劳动数据公布后震荡，然后略微回升至103.8969；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 800000, "bbox": [[0.614, 0.821, 0.686, 0.829], [0.154, 0.837, 0.452, 0.846]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 10, "global_sentence_id": 33, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "美国三大股指在周四大幅下跌后有所恢复。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 800000, "bbox": [[0.452, 0.837, 0.687, 0.845], [0.154, 0.853, 0.178, 0.862]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 10, "global_sentence_id": 34, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "伦敦黄金震荡，但依然维持在2900美元／盎司上方。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 800000, "bbox": [[0.178, 0.853, 0.494, 0.862]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 10, "global_sentence_id": 35, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "从基本面角度考虑，美国经济离大幅下行尚有距离，经济数据的走弱可能在下半年会更加明显，但市场已经开始提前交易特朗普对经济、企业名义利润等造成的冲击。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 800000, "bbox": [[0.494, 0.853, 0.687, 0.862], [0.154, 0.869, 0.687, 0.877], [0.154, 0.885, 0.425, 0.894]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 10, "global_sentence_id": 36, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "因此，如果美股上半年陷入调整，可能是介入的较好时点，未来可能会随着关税冲击淡化、美联储开始温和降息等因素而出现回升。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 800000, "bbox": [[0.425, 0.885, 0.686, 0.894], [0.154, 0.901, 0.671, 0.911]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 10, "global_sentence_id": 37, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "分析师", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 900000, "bbox": [[0.713, 0.223, 0.758, 0.233]]}]}, "tags": ["title"], "label": "author", "web_segment_id": 11, "global_sentence_id": 38, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "张迪", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1000000, "bbox": [[0.713, 0.243, 0.74, 0.252]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "author", "web_segment_id": 12, "global_sentence_id": 39, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": ":", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1000000, "bbox": [[0.728, 0.264, 0.735, 0.269]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "author", "web_segment_id": 13, "global_sentence_id": 40, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "010-8092-7737", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1000000, "bbox": [[0.735, 0.264, 0.83, 0.27]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "author", "web_segment_id": 13, "global_sentence_id": 41, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "figure", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1100000, "bbox": [[0.713, 0.261, 0.73, 0.271]]}]}, "tags": ["figure"], "label": "figure", "web_segment_id": 14, "global_sentence_id": 42, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": ":", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1100000, "bbox": [[0.727, 0.281, 0.733, 0.288]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "author", "web_segment_id": 15, "global_sentence_id": 43, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1100000, "bbox": [[0.733, 0.281, 0.947, 0.288]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "author", "web_segment_id": 15, "global_sentence_id": 44, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "分析师登记编码：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1100000, "bbox": [[0.714, 0.297, 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"web_segment_id": 23, "global_sentence_id": 56, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "1．政府裁员、财政紧缩和移民政策冲击就业的风险", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1700000, "bbox": [[0.712, 0.497, 0.954, 0.504]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 24, "global_sentence_id": 57, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "2．美国银行系统意外出现流动性问题的风险", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1800000, "bbox": [[0.712, 0.515, 0.921, 0.522]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 25, "global_sentence_id": 58, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "3．劳动市场不同统计序列和方式存在误差的风险", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1900000, "bbox": [[0.712, 0.531, 0.943, 0.538]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 26, "global_sentence_id": 59, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "footer", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2000000, "bbox": [[0.068, 0.949, 0.799, 0.965]]}]}, "tags": ["footer"], "label": "O", "web_segment_id": 27, "global_sentence_id": 60, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "header", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2000000, "bbox": [[0.055, 0.023, 0.321, 0.052]]}]}, "tags": ["header"], "label": "O", "web_segment_id": 1, "global_sentence_id": 61, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "header", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2000000, "bbox": [[0.844, 0.032, 0.955, 0.045]]}]}, "tags": ["header"], "label": "O", "web_segment_id": 2, "global_sentence_id": 62, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "一、劳动数据略弱于预期，稳定中稍有下滑", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2100000, "bbox": [[0.274, 0.102, 0.831, 0.116]]}]}, "tags": ["title"], "label": "title1", "web_segment_id": 3, "global_sentence_id": 63, "edu_l1_label": "BOS"}, {"txt": "美国劳工数据局（BLS)3月7日公布了2025年2月的劳动数据，1月的劳动数据由于家庭和单位调查均进行了修正，噪音较大，家庭就业的调整也导致了失业率的意外回流。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2200000, "bbox": [[0.296, 0.137, 0.95, 0.146], [0.265, 0.156, 0.791, 0.166]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 64, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "2月的劳动数据依然保持了相对稳定，虽然略弱于预期，但仍显示美国劳动市场和“薪资-消费”循环没有出现明显的裂痕。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2200000, "bbox": [[0.791, 0.156, 0.95, 0.165], [0.265, 0.175, 0.935, 0.185]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 65, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "失业率缓慢的弱化也意味着美联储短期仍不急于降息，而特朗普政府的裁员计划和限制非法移民流入以及驱逐等尚未对整体劳动数据造成冲击。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2200000, "bbox": [[0.935, 0.175, 0.951, 0.185], [0.265, 0.194, 0.95, 0.203], [0.265, 0.213, 0.513, 0.222]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 66, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "单位调查（establishment survey）方面，2月新增岗位15.1万个，稍低于16万个的预期。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2300000, "bbox": [[0.296, 0.232, 0.936, 0.241]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 67, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "1月新增就业从14.3万个下修至12.5万个，12月新增就业从30.7万个上修至32.3万个，累计下修0.2万个。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2300000, "bbox": [[0.936, 0.232, 0.95, 0.24], [0.264, 0.25, 0.951, 0.259], [0.264, 0.269, 0.305, 0.279]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 68, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "非农时薪增速环比0.28%，前值略下修至0.42%；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2300000, "bbox": [[0.305, 0.269, 0.641, 0.279]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 69, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "同比增速为4.02%，近期变化不大。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2300000, "bbox": [[0.641, 0.269, 0.888, 0.28]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 70, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "家庭调查（household survey）方面，失业率升至4.1%，高于4.0％的预期。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2400000, "bbox": [[0.295, 0.288, 0.843, 0.297]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 71, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "劳动参与率稍升至62.4%,55岁及以上参与率降至38.1%,25-54岁参与率保持83.5％。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2400000, "bbox": [[0.843, 0.288, 0.95, 0.297], [0.265, 0.307, 0.764, 0.317]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 72, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "2025年2月家庭全职就业总数环比减少122.0万人，1月家庭就业因年度调整上修238.6万人后出现回落；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2400000, "bbox": [[0.764, 0.307, 0.95, 0.316], [0.265, 0.326, 0.807, 0.335]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 73, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "兼职就业总数仅减少1.7万人。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2400000, "bbox": [[0.807, 0.326, 0.949, 0.335], [0.264, 0.344, 0.339, 0.355]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 74, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "累计兼职工作人数三月均同比降低至0.10%，累计全职工作人数三月均同比增速回升至1.20%。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2400000, "bbox": [[0.339, 0.344, 0.95, 0.354], [0.264, 0.364, 0.316, 0.373]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 75, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "从新增非农就业的结构来看，商品就业依然保持较低的岗位贡献，在偏高利率和特朗普的关税扰动下短期仍难有起色；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2500000, "bbox": [[0.295, 0.382, 0.95, 0.391], [0.265, 0.401, 0.392, 0.411]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 7, "global_sentence_id": 76, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "服务就业的新增岗位依然集中在中低技能服务业，教育和保健服务增长7.3万个岗位，依然是贡献最突出的。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2500000, "bbox": [[0.392, 0.401, 0.95, 0.411], [0.265, 0.42, 0.447, 0.43]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 7, "global_sentence_id": 77, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "未来可能需要注意，如果特朗普政府的预算为了缩减赤字而开始显著削减Medicaid，那么相关就业可能会受到打击；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2500000, "bbox": [[0.447, 0.42, 0.95, 0.429], [0.264, 0.439, 0.553, 0.448]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 7, "global_sentence_id": 78, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "虽然目前来看除了减少Medicaid 费用中的浪费外，大规模降低相关支出从政治角度并不现实。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2500000, "bbox": [[0.553, 0.439, 0.95, 0.448], [0.265, 0.458, 0.516, 0.467]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 7, "global_sentence_id": 79, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "政府就业方面，2月新增就业缓和至1.1万人，联邦政府雇员减少了约1万人，但由于特朗普此前提出的2月6日前辞职可领薪资至9月底的裁员计划，对联邦雇员的显著冲击可能需要到四季度数据中才能体现。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2500000, "bbox": [[0.516, 0.458, 0.95, 0.467], [0.265, 0.476, 0.95, 0.486], [0.265, 0.496, 0.565, 0.505]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 7, "global_sentence_id": 80, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "不过，哥伦比亚特区的失业金初请人数已经从400到800人左右跃升至1600人上方，即政府效率部（DOGE）的人员裁撤影响已经开始显现，但还不至于影响全国失业率。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2500000, "bbox": [[0.565, 0.496, 0.95, 0.504], [0.264, 0.514, 0.95, 0.524], [0.265, 0.533, 0.35, 0.543]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 7, "global_sentence_id": 81, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "虽然如此，大规模限制和驱逐移民目前尚未落地，在裁员、控制赤字等方案下，劳动市场面临的下行风险依然更高，短期继续处于缓慢弱化的状态。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2500000, "bbox": [[0.35, 0.533, 0.95, 0.543], [0.265, 0.552, 0.649, 0.561]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 7, "global_sentence_id": 82, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "图1：新增非农就业环比反弹", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2600000, "bbox": [[0.06, 0.571, 0.244, 0.581]]}]}, "tags": ["figure_caption"], "label": "figure_title", "web_segment_id": 8, "global_sentence_id": 83, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "figure", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2700000, "bbox": [[0.069, 0.587, 0.5, 0.782]]}]}, "tags": ["figure"], "label": "figure", "web_segment_id": 9, "global_sentence_id": 84, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "资料来源：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2800000, "bbox": [[0.063, 0.787, 0.121, 0.795]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "figure_title", "web_segment_id": 10, "global_sentence_id": 85, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "BLS，中国银河证券研究院", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2800000, "bbox": [[0.121, 0.787, 0.275, 0.795]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "figure_title", "web_segment_id": 10, "global_sentence_id": 86, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "图2：劳动参与率稍回升，供给仍然充足（%）", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 2900000, "bbox": [[0.521, 0.57, 0.814, 0.582]]}]}, "tags": ["figure_caption"], "label": "figure_title", "web_segment_id": 11, "global_sentence_id": 87, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "figure", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3000000, "bbox": [[0.527, 0.585, 0.961, 0.782]]}]}, "tags": ["figure"], "label": "figure", "web_segment_id": 12, "global_sentence_id": 88, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "资料来源：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3100000, "bbox": [[0.525, 0.787, 0.58, 0.795]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "figure_title", "web_segment_id": 13, "global_sentence_id": 89, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "BLS，中国银河证券研究院", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3100000, "bbox": [[0.58, 0.787, 0.737, 0.795]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "figure_title", "web_segment_id": 13, "global_sentence_id": 90, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "在1月两个劳动数据统计序列的修正后，2月劳动市场整体体现出略弱于预期的状态，但依然没有达到需要让美联储考虑降息的条件。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3200000, "bbox": [[0.296, 0.823, 0.95, 0.833], [0.265, 0.842, 0.504, 0.852]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 14, "global_sentence_id": 91, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "我们认为较为可能触发进一步降息的条件包括（1）非农新增就业开始稳定的低于10万岗位／月，(2）失业率再度接近4.4％左右的自然失业率水平。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3200000, "bbox": [[0.504, 0.842, 0.95, 0.852], [0.265, 0.861, 0.825, 0.871]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 14, "global_sentence_id": 92, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "不过以目前的就业情况和薪资增速来看，劳动市场依然不存在短期快速下滑的风险，而特朗普政府的裁员计划可能要等到四季度才会更明显的显现，政府工作人员失业的影响也只主要集中在哥伦比亚特区，并不会显著冲击全", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3200000, "bbox": [[0.825, 0.861, 0.95, 0.871], [0.265, 0.88, 0.95, 0.89], [0.265, 0.9, 0.95, 0.909]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 14, "global_sentence_id": 93, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "footer", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3300000, "bbox": [[0.926, 0.944, 0.952, 0.967]]}]}, "tags": ["footer"], "label": "O", "web_segment_id": 15, "global_sentence_id": 94, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "footer", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3300000, "bbox": [[0.068, 0.949, 0.428, 0.965]]}]}, "tags": ["footer"], "label": "O", "web_segment_id": 16, "global_sentence_id": 95, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "header", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3300000, "bbox": [[0.055, 0.024, 0.321, 0.052]]}]}, "tags": ["header"], "label": "O", "web_segment_id": 1, "global_sentence_id": 96, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "header", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3300000, "bbox": [[0.844, 0.032, 0.955, 0.045]]}]}, "tags": ["header"], "label": "O", "web_segment_id": 2, "global_sentence_id": 97, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "国失业率。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3300000, "bbox": [[0.264, 0.081, 0.332, 0.091]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 3, "global_sentence_id": 98, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "从风险角度考虑，DOGE和财政预算都可能导致持续的医疗保健和政府工作岗位的削减，而经济逐步弱化的趋势也意味着劳动市场面临的下行压力高于上行压力。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3300000, "bbox": [[0.332, 0.081, 0.951, 0.091], [0.265, 0.1, 0.725, 0.11]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 3, "global_sentence_id": 99, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "因此，我们继续维持2025年有望降息3次，首次降息在年中出现的判断。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3300000, "bbox": [[0.725, 0.1, 0.95, 0.11], [0.265, 0.119, 0.552, 0.128]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 3, "global_sentence_id": 100, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "劳动市场的逐步弱化与经济开始放缓相匹配，未来的情况是经济温和下行、经济大幅下行还是滞胀似乎取决于特朗普政府的财政紧缩以及关税力度，而美联储的货币政策只能相对被动的对不确定性作出反应。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3300000, "bbox": [[0.552, 0.119, 0.95, 0.129], [0.264, 0.138, 0.951, 0.147], [0.266, 0.157, 0.558, 0.166]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 3, "global_sentence_id": 101, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "图3：无法申领失业金的失业人口略有增加（千人）", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3400000, "bbox": [[0.06, 0.176, 0.379, 0.186]]}]}, "tags": ["figure_caption"], "label": "figure_title", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 102, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "figure", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3500000, "bbox": [[0.065, 0.189, 0.5, 0.391]]}]}, "tags": ["figure"], "label": "figure", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 103, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "资料来源：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3600000, "bbox": [[0.063, 0.396, 0.119, 0.404]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "figure_title", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 104, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "BLS，中国银河证券研究院", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3600000, "bbox": [[0.119, 0.396, 0.275, 0.404]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "figure_title", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 105, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "图4：失业率贡献拆解显示2月非暂时性失业小幅增加", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3700000, "bbox": [[0.522, 0.176, 0.864, 0.186]]}]}, "tags": ["figure_caption"], "label": "figure_title", "web_segment_id": 7, "global_sentence_id": 106, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "figure", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3800000, "bbox": [[0.531, 0.189, 0.957, 0.388]]}]}, "tags": ["figure"], "label": "figure", "web_segment_id": 8, "global_sentence_id": 107, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "资料来源：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3900000, "bbox": [[0.525, 0.396, 0.58, 0.403]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "figure_title", "web_segment_id": 9, "global_sentence_id": 108, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "Fred，中国银河证券研究院", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3900000, "bbox": [[0.58, 0.396, 0.735, 0.404]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "figure_title", "web_segment_id": 9, "global_sentence_id": 109, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "分项目来看，(1）新增非农就业新增岗位15.1万个，其中商品生产新增3.4万个，服务增加10.6万个，政府贡献1.1万个；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4000000, "bbox": [[0.301, 0.432, 0.95, 0.442], [0.265, 0.452, 0.448, 0.461]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 10, "global_sentence_id": 110, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "剔除政府影响后实际增加14.0万个岗位。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4000000, "bbox": [[0.448, 0.452, 0.743, 0.461]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 10, "global_sentence_id": 111, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "商品生产依然维持弱势，2月ISM制造业PMI的就业环比回落，新订单也预示生产大幅改善的概率不高；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4000000, "bbox": [[0.743, 0.452, 0.948, 0.461], [0.264, 0.471, 0.777, 0.48]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 10, "global_sentence_id": 112, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "我们认为特朗普政策目前对于中小企业包括减税在内的利好较难实现，且关税造成成本端和预期的扰动，这意味着制造业在利率明显降低前难以明显恢复。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4000000, "bbox": [[0.777, 0.471, 0.95, 0.48], [0.265, 0.489, 0.95, 0.499], [0.265, 0.508, 0.44, 0.517]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 10, "global_sentence_id": 113, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "主要新增就业依然来自于服务业，持续强势的教育和保健服务贡献的7.3万个岗位，金融活动业贡献2.1万个岗位，但休闲酒店业和零售业负增长。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4000000, "bbox": [[0.44, 0.508, 0.95, 0.518], [0.264, 0.527, 0.747, 0.537]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 10, "global_sentence_id": 114, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "尽管前两个月的新增非农就业人数略低于预期，但费城联储的就业同步指标同比增速维持2.65%（衰退阈值需要2.5％以下），劳动市场并不会拖累经济进入小幅衰退状态，也不需要偏早的降息。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4000000, "bbox": [[0.747, 0.527, 0.95, 0.536], [0.264, 0.545, 0.949, 0.556], [0.265, 0.565, 0.678, 0.574]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 10, "global_sentence_id": 115, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "（2）名义时薪增速稳定，仍与2.5%-3％的通胀水平匹配。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4100000, "bbox": [[0.307, 0.583, 0.696, 0.593]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 11, "global_sentence_id": 116, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "2月非农时薪环比从前值0.42％放缓至0.28%，三个月均值为0.30%，同比增速4.02%，继续稳定在4％附近。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4100000, "bbox": [[0.696, 0.583, 0.949, 0.593], [0.264, 0.603, 0.781, 0.612]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 11, "global_sentence_id": 117, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "薪资增速目前的状况较为良好，虽然工时处于偏低位置，但私人非农总收入拟合指标显示名义工资收入和零售销售依然将保持稳定，预计可以维持4％到5％的同比增速。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4100000, "bbox": [[0.781, 0.603, 0.95, 0.612], [0.265, 0.622, 0.95, 0.631], [0.264, 0.64, 0.552, 0.65]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 11, "global_sentence_id": 118, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "这也意味着虽然近期市场开始担忧经济失速并陷入衰退，但消费和就业之间较为稳定的循环不易被打破，我们认同经济在关税和财政缩减等潜在扰动下有下行担忧，但软着陆目前仍是基准情况。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4100000, "bbox": [[0.552, 0.64, 0.949, 0.65], [0.265, 0.66, 0.96, 0.67], [0.265, 0.678, 0.452, 0.687]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 11, "global_sentence_id": 119, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "（3）失业率升至4.14%，高于市场预期。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4200000, "bbox": [[0.302, 0.697, 0.584, 0.707]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 12, "global_sentence_id": 120, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "1月的失业率意外回落主要由于统计调整将更多的移民和就业人口纳入了统计，政府裁员造成的失业短期亦不会在失业数据中明显体现，所以相较于失业率，通胀的路径对政策影响更加关键。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4200000, "bbox": [[0.584, 0.697, 0.95, 0.707], [0.265, 0.716, 0.943, 0.726], [0.265, 0.735, 0.484, 0.745]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 12, "global_sentence_id": 121, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "2月总失业人口增加20.3万人至705.2万人，作为分母的劳动力人口整体稳定，对失业率影响不大。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4200000, "bbox": [[0.484, 0.735, 0.951, 0.745], [0.265, 0.754, 0.485, 0.763]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 12, "global_sentence_id": 122, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "从构成来看，4.14％的失业率中，非暂时性失业贡献了0.06％的边际回落，再进入和新进入劳动市场者贡献了0.05％的回升，供需两端都小幅弱化。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4200000, "bbox": [[0.485, 0.754, 0.95, 0.762], [0.264, 0.773, 0.791, 0.782]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 12, "global_sentence_id": 123, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "特朗普的政府裁员影响主要集中在哥伦比亚特区，具体表现为失业金初请和续请人数的上升以及房价的下跌，不过这短期不会显著影响失业率。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4200000, "bbox": [[0.791, 0.773, 0.95, 0.781], [0.265, 0.791, 0.95, 0.801], [0.265, 0.81, 0.375, 0.82]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 12, "global_sentence_id": 124, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "（4）从供需考虑，劳动市场继续处于相对平衡的状态，未来的方向取决于联邦政府裁员和移民政策的影响。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4300000, "bbox": [[0.307, 0.829, 0.95, 0.838], [0.266, 0.848, 0.332, 0.857]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 13, "global_sentence_id": 125, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "1月职位空缺数据还未公布，但劳动市场缺口预计不会明显扩张。", "language": 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# 劳动数据如何反映联邦政府裁员的影响？
## 一、劳动数据略弱于预期，稳定中稍有下滑
## 二、非农就业修正有限，但注意裁员数量上升
## 三、风险提示
### （1）政府裁员、财政紧缩和移民政策冲击就业的风险
### （2）美国银行系统意外出现流动性问题的风险
### （3）劳动市场不同统计序列和方式存在误差的风险
