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2824, "txt": "围绕加征关税的问题，在美国内部也存在诸多争论，涉及多方利益群体。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[175]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 139, "global_sentence_id": 146, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "首先，有反对派，比如在中国有工厂或者从中国采购商品的企业；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2826, "txt": "首先，有反对派", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[177]/strong/span"}, {"position_id": 2828, "txt": "，比如在中国有工厂或者从中国采购商品的企业；", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[177]/span"}]}, "tags": ["strong"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 140, "global_sentence_id": 147, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "其次，有渐进派，认为如果立即大幅加征关税，供应链必然会崩溃、混乱，马斯克便属于这一派；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2830, "txt": "其次，有渐进派，", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[179]/strong/span"}, {"position_id": 2832, "txt": "认为如果立即大幅加征关税，供应链必然会崩溃、混乱，马斯克便属于这一派；", "x": 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"特朗普并不是典型的理性决策者，他的决策充满了不确定性。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[185]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 144, "global_sentence_id": 151, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "加征关税的具体对象是集中针对中国，还是扩展到墨西哥、加拿大等国家；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2840, "txt": "加征关税的具体对象是集中针对中国，还是扩展到墨西哥、加拿大等国家；", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[187]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 145, "global_sentence_id": 152, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "加征关税的商品类别是所有商品，还是仅限于对美国有战略安全关切的商品；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2842, "txt": "加征关税的商品类别是所有商品，还是仅限于对美国有战略安全关切的商品；", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[189]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 146, "global_sentence_id": 153, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "加征关税的幅度是10%、40%还是其他；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2844, "txt": "加征关税的幅度是10%、40%还是其他；", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[191]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 147, "global_sentence_id": 154, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "加征的时间段是一次性执行，还是分批进行？", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2846, "txt": "加征的时间段是一次性执行，还是分批进行？", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[193]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 148, "global_sentence_id": 155, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "是否会通过谈判达成协议？", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2847, "txt": "是否会通过谈判达成协议？", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[193]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 148, "global_sentence_id": 156, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "这些问题甚至在美国国内也有不同的观点和利益集团在博弈。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2849, "txt": "这些问题甚至在美国国内也有不同的观点和利益集团在博弈。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[195]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 149, "global_sentence_id": 157, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "我个人的分析是特朗普很可能会显著加征关税，但大概率会选择分批和有选择性地加征。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2851, "txt": "我个人的分析是特朗普很可能会显著加征关税，但大概率会选择分批和有选择性地加征。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[197]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 150, "global_sentence_id": 158, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "一种中性烈度的贸易战最符合特朗普的利益。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2853, "txt": "一种中性烈度的贸易战最符合特朗普的利益。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[199]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 151, "global_sentence_id": 159, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "这种情况下，加征关税幅度可能会保持在15%到20%之间，现有对中国的关税约为20%，两者叠加后，大约会达到35%到40%。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2855, "txt": "这种情况下，加征关税幅度可能会保持在15%到20%之间，现有对中国的关税约为20%，两者叠加后，大约会达到35%到40%。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[201]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 152, "global_sentence_id": 160, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "这种中性烈度的贸易战，既能给各国带来实质性的压力和冲击，也能够回应特朗普竞选时的承诺。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2857, "txt": "这种中性烈度的贸易战，既能给各国带来实质性的压力和冲击，也能够回应特朗普竞选时的承诺。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[203]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 153, "global_sentence_id": 161, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "同时，这种幅度的加征关税也能在一定程度上控制对美国经济的负面影响，避免对特朗普中期选举带来过大副作用。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2859, "txt": "同时，这种幅度的加征关税也能在一定程度上控制对美国经济的负面影响，避免对特朗普中期选举带来过大副作用。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[205]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 154, "global_sentence_id": 162, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "因此，尽管这场贸易战从战略方向上是高度确定的，但在具体的战术博弈上，仍然存在相当大的不确定性。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2861, "txt": "因此，尽管这场贸易战从战略方向上是高度确定的，但在具体的战术博弈上，仍然存在相当大的不确定性。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[207]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 155, "global_sentence_id": 163, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "<img https://wcd-image-bucket-test.oss-cn-zhangjiakou.aliyuncs.com/raw/1WzY9U3fbctcvZHxS1HZNxG.jpeg", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 745, "txt": "<img https://wcd-image-bucket-test.oss-cn-zhangjiakou.aliyuncs.com/raw/1WzY9U3fbctcvZHxS1HZNxG.jpeg", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/section[9]/img"}]}, "tags": ["img"], "label": "figure", "web_segment_id": 156, "global_sentence_id": 164, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "我想提醒大家注意两点：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2863, "txt": "我想提醒大家注意两点：", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[210]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 157, "global_sentence_id": 165, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "第一，2025年的挑战可能并不是最大的，2026年的冲击反而可能会更大。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2865, "txt": "第一，2025年的挑战可能并不是最大的，2026年的冲击反而可能会更大。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[212]/strong/span"}]}, "tags": ["strong"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 158, "global_sentence_id": 166, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "明年的挑战将比今年更加严峻。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2867, "txt": "明年的挑战将比今年更加严峻。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[214]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 159, "global_sentence_id": 167, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "因为今年还会有一个加征关税最终实施的缓冲期，例如可能在一季度公布但在三季度实施，或者在二季度公布但在四季度实施。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2868, "txt": "因为今年还会有一个加征关税最终实施的缓冲期，例如可能在一季度公布但在三季度实施，或者在二季度公布但在四季度实施。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[214]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 159, "global_sentence_id": 168, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "在缓冲期生效之前，我们肯定会看到抢出口抢进口的现象。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2870, "txt": "在缓冲期生效之前，我们肯定会看到抢出口抢进口的现象。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[216]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 160, "global_sentence_id": 169, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "同时，通过东盟、墨西哥等地区的转口贸易，也能为中国企业争取一段缓冲时间。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2871, "txt": "同时，通过东盟、墨西哥等地区的转口贸易，也能为中国企业争取一段缓冲时间。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[216]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 160, "global_sentence_id": 170, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "今年并不是最难的一年，明年才是更大的冲击。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2873, "txt": "今年并不是最难的一年，明年才是更大的冲击。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[218]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 161, "global_sentence_id": 171, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "第二，特朗普一定会密切观察加征关税对美国通胀的影响。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2875, "txt": "第二，特朗普一定会密切观察加征关税对美国通胀的影响。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[220]/strong/span"}]}, "tags": ["strong"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 162, "global_sentence_id": 172, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "如果美国的通胀反弹非常明显，这是他不希望看到的结果。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2876, "txt": "如果美国的通胀反弹非常明显，这是他不希望看到的结果。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[220]/strong/span"}]}, "tags": ["strong"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 162, "global_sentence_id": 173, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "他之所以能成功打败哈里斯，关键原因之一就是美国民众对通胀问题的高度关注和强烈反应。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": 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"IOS"}, {"txt": "美国的逻辑很简单：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2884, "txt": "美国的逻辑很简单：", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[228]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 166, "global_sentence_id": 177, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "亚洲国家，你的国家经济发展壮大，科技进步，是依靠向美国出口来实现的。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2886, "txt": "亚洲国家，你的国家经济发展壮大，科技进步，是依靠向美国出口来实现的。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[228]/span/strong"}]}, "tags": ["strong"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 166, "global_sentence_id": 178, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "我为什么还要支持你发展呢？", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2887, "txt": "我为什么还要支持你发展呢？", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[228]/span/strong"}]}, "tags": ["strong"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 166, "global_sentence_id": 179, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "美国一定会采取更为严格的对华贸易战政策，这在两党中已经达成共识。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2889, "txt": "美国一定会采取更为严格的对华贸易战政策，这在两党中已经达成共识。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[230]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 167, "global_sentence_id": 180, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "随着时间推移，美国的关税政策会更加精细化，中国通过东盟或墨西哥等地区进行的转口贸易，也可能会逐步被纳入加征关税的范围。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2891, "txt": "随着时间推移，美国的关税政策会更加精细化，中国通过东盟或墨西哥等地区进行的转口贸易，也可能会逐步被纳入加征关税的范围。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[232]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 168, "global_sentence_id": 181, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "所谓的洗产地模式将面临越来越大的抵制，洗产地就是将产品的产地标识从中国改为其他国家或地区，这种做法会引起更多国家的反感和抵触。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2893, "txt": "所谓的", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[234]/span"}, {"position_id": 2895, "txt": "洗产地模式将面临越来越大的抵制，洗产地就是将产品的产地标识从中国改为其他国家或地区，这种做法会引起更多国家的反感和抵触。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[234]/span/strong"}]}, "tags": ["strong"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 169, "global_sentence_id": 182, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "针对这一情况，中国近期有一个新的动议，就是从原产地标识（如Made in China）转向品牌标识（如Made by Apple，Made by Tesla）。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2897, "txt": "针对这一情况，中国近期有一个新的动议，就是从原产地标识（", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[236]/span[1]"}, {"position_id": 2899, "txt": "如Made in China", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[236]/span[2]"}, {"position_id": 2901, "txt": "）转向品牌标识（", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[236]/span[3]"}, {"position_id": 2903, "txt": "如Made by Apple，Made by Tesla", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[236]/span[4]"}, {"position_id": 2905, "txt": "）。", "x": 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"txt": "美国主导的小院高墙封锁政策，以及中美科技脱钩的趋势，会导致未来形成两大科技企业阵营。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[242]/strong/span"}]}, "tags": ["strong"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 173, "global_sentence_id": 186, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "对于中国企业来说，除非是一般性消费品，否则应把非美国市场作为优先目标。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2913, "txt": "对于中国企业来说，除非是一般性消费品，否则应把非美国市场作为优先目标。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[244]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 174, "global_sentence_id": 187, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "近期有一家投资机构宣布募集成立了非美国美元基金，这也从一个侧面反映了中美科技正在脱钩的现实。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2915, "txt": "近期有一家投资机构宣布募集成立了非美国美元基金，这也从一个侧面反映了中美科技正在脱钩的现实。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[246]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 175, "global_sentence_id": 188, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "最根本的解决之道，依然是创新。", "language": "chinese", 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"2025年宏观经济总量GDP预计4.5%-5%区间，依然保持较快增长，产能过剩影响了“GDP平减指数”转为正数。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2933, "txt": "2025年宏观经济总量GDP预计4.5%-5%区间，依然保持较快增长，产能过剩影响了“GDP平减指数”转为正数。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[256]/strong/span"}]}, "tags": ["strong"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 182, "global_sentence_id": 197, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "按照中国2035长期目标倒推测算，我们每年的经济增速应保持在4.7%以上。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2935, "txt": "按照中国2035长期目标倒推测算，我们每年的经济增速应保持在4.7%以上。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[258]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 183, "global_sentence_id": 198, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "随着基数的逐年升高，越往后实现这一增速目标的难度将增加，因此我们必须争取在现阶段保持较高的增速，确保年均增速尽可能高于4.7%。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2937, "txt": "随着基数的逐年升高，越往后实现这一增速目标的难度将增加，因此我们必须争取在现阶段保持较高的增速，确保年均增速尽可能高于4.7%。", "x": 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"2024年猪肉、蔬菜和水果等食品价格下降，对CPI下行构成压力。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2974, "txt": "2024年猪肉、蔬菜和水果等食品价格下降，对CPI下行构成压力。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[277]/span[2]"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 193, "global_sentence_id": 211, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "2025年CPI预计有望达到1.4%-1.5%之间，虽然距离设定的2%的目标仍有差距，但整体上呈现回暖趋势。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2976, "txt": "2025年CPI预计有望达到1.4%-1.5%之间，虽然距离设定的2%的目标仍有差距，但整体上呈现回暖趋势。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[279]/span[1]"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 194, "global_sentence_id": 212, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "近年来宏观经济政策制定部门也在关注电商的价格战。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2978, "txt": "近年来宏观经济政策制定部门也在关注电商的价格战。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[281]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 195, "global_sentence_id": 213, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "当前，网上零售在社会零售总额中的占比已达到约30%，这一比例相当高。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2980, "txt": "当前，网上零售在社会零售总额中的占比已达到约30%，这一比例相当高。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[283]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 196, "global_sentence_id": 214, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "同时，线上零售对线下市场产生了显著的价格传导作用。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2981, "txt": "同时，线上零售对线下市场产生了显著的价格传导作用。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[283]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 196, "global_sentence_id": 215, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "<img https://wcd-image-bucket-test.oss-cn-zhangjiakou.aliyuncs.com/raw/3PD3ZbdY7YZ1ixDd6WK4jb.jpeg", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 989, "txt": "<img https://wcd-image-bucket-test.oss-cn-zhangjiakou.aliyuncs.com/raw/3PD3ZbdY7YZ1ixDd6WK4jb.jpeg", "x": 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"因此，像拼多多和抖音电商等平台，实际上已经对CPI物价产生了类似通缩性影响。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[288]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 199, "global_sentence_id": 219, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "我们需要及时调整电商平台的货物推荐权重体系，减少全网最低价模式对市场的冲击和影响。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2988, "txt": "我们需要及时调整电商平台的货物推荐权重体系，减少全网最低价模式对市场的冲击和影响。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[290]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 200, "global_sentence_id": 220, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "关于PPI（工业生产者出厂价格指数），自2022年10月以来PPI持续处于负增长，原因就在于产能过剩。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2990, "txt": "关于PPI（", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[292]/span[1]"}, {"position_id": 2992, "txt": "工业生产者出厂价格指数", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[292]/span[2]"}, {"position_id": 2994, "txt": "），自2022年10月以来PPI持续处于负增长，原因就在于产能过剩。", "x": 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"这其中特别重要的是加快并购重组，以解决各行业的过剩产能和低效生产问题，淘汰低效产能。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[296]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 203, "global_sentence_id": 224, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "值得注意的是，去年11月中国宣布停止铝材的出口退税，并削减了光伏行业的出口退税，从13%降至9%。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 3001, "txt": "值得注意的是，去年11月中国宣布停止铝材的出口退税，并削减了光伏行业的出口退税，从13%降至9%。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[298]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 204, "global_sentence_id": 225, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "每年，中国的出口退税大约为1.8万亿，这一庞大的退税数额实际上是在补贴海外买家，吃力不讨好。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 3003, "txt": "每年，中国的出口退税大约为1.8万亿，这一庞大的退税数额实际上是在补贴海外买家，吃力不讨好。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[300]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 205, "global_sentence_id": 226, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": 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"培育世界级科技公司与养老金入市是关键。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[373]/span/strong/span"}]}, "tags": ["strong"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 249, "global_sentence_id": 283, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "A股的慢牛过程注定是曲折而动荡的，包括今年年初的市场表现也并不乐观。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 3106, "txt": "A股的慢牛过程注定是曲折而动荡的，包括今年年初的市场表现也并不乐观。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[375]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 250, "global_sentence_id": 284, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "但毫无疑问，政府高层已经充分认识到，资本市场在稳定和修复国家、企业、居民资产负债表中的核心意义。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 3108, "txt": "但毫无疑问，政府高层已经充分认识到，", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[377]/span"}, {"position_id": 3110, "txt": "资本市场在稳定和修复国家、企业、居民资产负债表中的核心意义。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[377]/span/strong"}]}, "tags": ["strong"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 251, 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"401K和IRA的最大特点是其资金主要投资于股票股权和债券，这些资金与美国股市牢牢捆绑在一起，从而为股市带来了强劲的资金支持，实现了多赢。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 3173, "txt": "401K和IRA的最大特点是其资金主要投资于股票股权和债券，这些资金与美国股市牢牢捆绑在一起，从而为股市带来了强劲的资金支持，实现了多赢。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[435]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 281, "global_sentence_id": 322, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "当然，有人可能会担心，这样的策略可能带来双输，如果养老金亏损了，岂不是更糟？", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 3175, "txt": "当然，有人可能会担心，这样的策略可能带来双输，如果养老金亏损了，岂不是更糟？", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[437]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 282, "global_sentence_id": 323, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "前提条件是中国资本市场必须涌现一批优秀的公司，特别是能够成为世界级科技巨头的公司。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 3177, "txt": "前提条件是中国资本市场必须涌现一批优秀的公司，特别是能够成为世界级科技巨头的公司。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[439]/span"}]}, "tags": 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"position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 3192, "txt": "特朗普作为关税爱好者，希望通过加征关税对中国施压。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[448]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 289, "global_sentence_id": 333, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "但实际上，关于特朗普1.0时期加征关税后代价由谁承担的问题，各方的观点和数据有很大差异。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 3193, "txt": "但实际上，关于特朗普1.0时期加征关税后代价由谁承担的问题，各方的观点和数据有很大差异。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[448]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 289, "global_sentence_id": 334, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "市场主体涉及四个方面：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 3195, "txt": "市场主体涉及四个方面：", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[450]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 290, "global_sentence_id": 335, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "美国消费者、美国贸易商、中国贸易商和中国生产厂商。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": 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"edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "只要有产能就容易出现产能过剩，甚至当下的就业问题也是劳动力产能过剩的表现。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 3318, "txt": "只要有产能就容易出现产能过剩，甚至当下的就业问题也是劳动力产能过剩的表现。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[541]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 342, "global_sentence_id": 391, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "<img https://wcd-image-bucket-test.oss-cn-zhangjiakou.aliyuncs.com/raw/1fhwXi1FgQ4w1UD38H15iXSe.png", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 1829, "txt": "<img https://wcd-image-bucket-test.oss-cn-zhangjiakou.aliyuncs.com/raw/1fhwXi1FgQ4w1UD38H15iXSe.png", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/section[23]/span/img"}]}, "tags": ["img"], "label": "figure", "web_segment_id": 343, "global_sentence_id": 392, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "在此背景下什么产能可以投资？", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 3320, "txt": "在此背景下什么产能可以投资？", "x": 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"position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 3327, "txt": "比如，最近在关注的芯片领域的先进封装，这可能是中国半导体产业弯道超车”的机会，就属于稀缺性产能。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[546]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 345, "global_sentence_id": 396, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "比如，各种先进制造业。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 3329, "txt": "比如，各种先进制造业。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[548]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 346, "global_sentence_id": 397, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "其次，像Shein“小单快返”这种创新性、差异化产能，也是值得鼓励的。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 3330, "txt": "其次，像Shein“小单快返”这种创新性、差异化产能，也是值得鼓励的。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[548]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 346, "global_sentence_id": 398, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "过去我们经常讲产供销，但是今后希望越来越多的企业能够改成销供产，以销定产。", "language": "chinese", "position": 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"position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 3354, "txt": "钱从哪里来？", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[565]/strong/span"}]}, "tags": ["strong"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 356, "global_sentence_id": 410, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "这个关键问题不回答清楚，消费很难成为经济增长的主力发动机。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 3356, "txt": "这个关键问题不回答清楚，消费很难成为经济增长的主力发动机。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[565]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 356, "global_sentence_id": 411, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "我们现在有一笔10万亿量级被沉淀的庞大资金，应该盘活用于消费，那就是住房公积金制度改革。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 3358, "txt": "我们现在有一笔10万亿量级被沉淀的庞大资金，应该盘活用于消费，那就是住房公积金制度改革。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[567]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 357, "global_sentence_id": 412, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": 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"目前相对比较普遍的共识是要推动中低收入人群增收减负，推动城乡居民的基础养老金普及，提高医保报销比例等等。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 3380, "txt": "目前相对比较普遍的共识是要推动中低收入人群增收减负，推动城乡居民的基础养老金普及，提高医保报销比例等等。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[584]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 366, "global_sentence_id": 423, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "此外，促进服务类消费很关键。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 3382, "txt": "此外，促进服务类消费很关键。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[586]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 367, "global_sentence_id": 424, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "在电商多年培育下，中国商品类消费已经非常发达，但服务类消费存在巨大的短板。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 3383, "txt": "在电商多年培育下，中国商品类消费已经非常发达，但服务类消费存在巨大的短板。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[586]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 367, "global_sentence_id": 425, "edu_l1_label": 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"position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 3418, "txt": "美国国家基础养老覆盖率已经达到95%。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[607]/span[1]"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 379, "global_sentence_id": 438, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "但从养老金整体资产角度，基础养老金的占比是极小的，美国人养老主要靠个人养老金（IRA）和企业雇主与个人共助养老金（401K）。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 3419, "txt": "但从养老金整体资产角度，基础养老金的占比是极小的，美国人养老主要靠个人养老金（", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[607]/span[1]"}, {"position_id": 3421, "txt": "IRA", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[607]/span[2]"}, {"position_id": 3423, "txt": "）和企业雇主与个人共助养老金（", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[607]/span[3]"}, {"position_id": 3425, "txt": "401K", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[607]/span[4]"}, {"position_id": 3427, "txt": "）。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[607]/span[5]"}]}, "tags": [], "label": 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3513, "txt": "我国目前的制造业还处在大而不强的阶段，还欠缺生产性服务业，所以这既是中国制造业做强做大的主要方向，同时对于大学生高质量就业也至关重要。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[685]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 421, "global_sentence_id": 485, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "第二，年轻大学生应跟随中国企业出海，跟随企业的发展战略走，在全球化进程中创造新的事业。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 3515, "txt": "第二，年轻大学生应跟随中国企业出海，", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[688]/strong/span"}, {"position_id": 3517, "txt": "跟随企业的发展战略走，在全球化进程中创造新的事业。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[688]/span"}]}, "tags": ["strong"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 422, "global_sentence_id": 486, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "之前反复谈到，中国企业正在进入全面出海的新时代，这也是未来大学生就业的一个重要方向。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 3519, "txt": "之前反复谈到，中国企业正在进入全面出海的新时代，这也是未来大学生就业的一个重要方向。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[690]/span"}]}, "tags": [], 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"global_sentence_id": 492, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "一个国家永远要投资人，永远要投资年轻人。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 3533, "txt": "一个国家永远要投资人，永远要投资年轻人。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[702]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 429, "global_sentence_id": 493, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "<img https://wcd-image-bucket-test.oss-cn-zhangjiakou.aliyuncs.com/raw/37GuM13IFYsD2jNF3fp8f3v.png", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 2349, "txt": "<img https://wcd-image-bucket-test.oss-cn-zhangjiakou.aliyuncs.com/raw/37GuM13IFYsD2jNF3fp8f3v.png", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/section[31]/span/img"}]}, "tags": ["img"], "label": "figure", "web_segment_id": 430, "global_sentence_id": 494, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "同时，建议对吸引和接纳大学生实习的企业进行表彰、给予补贴，甚至各项支持，就像鼓励高新技术企业一样，形成社会氛围。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 3535, "txt": "同时，建议对吸引和接纳大学生实习的企业进行表彰、给予补贴，甚至各项支持，就像鼓励高新技术企业一样，形成社会氛围。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[705]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 431, "global_sentence_id": 495, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "② 大企业应开放在线培训，推动校企需求匹配", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 3537, "txt": "② 大企业应开放在线培训，推动校企需求匹配", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[707]/strong/span"}]}, "tags": ["strong"], "label": "title4", "web_segment_id": 432, "global_sentence_id": 496, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "建议像华为、阿里、腾讯这样的大企业，开放其在线培训课程，或者发起国家级在线实操课程培养计划。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 3539, "txt": "建议像华为、阿里、腾讯这样的大企业，开放其在线培训课程，或者发起国家级在线实操课程培养计划。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[709]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 433, "global_sentence_id": 497, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "让更多的大学生在毕业前后，通过高水平的在线学习培训，提高与企业实际需求的匹配度。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 3541, "txt": "让更多的大学生在毕业前后，通过高水平的在线学习培训，提高与企业实际需求的匹配度。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[711]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 434, "global_sentence_id": 498, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "③ 大力发展职业教育，建立实训基地实现校企衔接", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 3543, "txt": "③ 大力发展职业教育，建立实训基地实现校企衔接", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[713]/strong/span"}]}, "tags": ["strong"], "label": "title4", "web_segment_id": 435, "global_sentence_id": 499, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "最重要的还是要大力发展职业教育，在各大企业、各个职业院校当中建立大量的实训基地，这样才能让大学生真正能够跟企业的实际需求相吻合。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"atoms": [{"position_id": 3545, "txt": "最重要的还是要大力发展职业教育，在各大企业、各个职业院校当中建立大量的实训基地，这样才能让大学生真正能够跟企业的实际需求相吻合。", "x": "/html/body/div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div/div[1]/div[2]/p[715]/span"}]}, "tags": [], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 436, "global_sentence_id": 500, 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# 2025怎么赚钱？你必须知道的十大变数
## 宏观趋势
## 一、AI引领第四次科技革命 成中美博弈焦点
## 二、特普朗2.0带来不确定性 中国短期受冲击
## 三、2025年经济增速 能否稳定在4.5%～5%？
## 四、房地产市场分化 住房与财政模式转变
## 五、资本市场成主战场 A股慢牛要素待解
## 六、中美贸易战下 A股人民币与出口形势有变
## 七、投资为扩内需重点 新质生产力挑大梁
## 八、消费成发动机 需先解决钱从哪里来
## 九、老龄化少子化下 养老成未来20年挑战
## 十、就业形势严峻 AI对就业影响有分化
### 1.大学生就业
### 2.农民工、低端劳动力的失业再就业
