{"entry_id": "080ae512-2437-4664-9351-5018885786c0", "infos": [{"txt": "header", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 0, "bbox": [[0.081, 0.046, 0.313, 0.061]]}]}, "tags": ["header"], "label": "O", "web_segment_id": -1, "global_sentence_id": 0, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "header", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 0, "bbox": [[0.736, 0.013, 0.913, 0.064]]}]}, "tags": ["header"], "label": "O", "web_segment_id": -1, "global_sentence_id": 1, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "中观景气度高频跟踪及运用", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 100000, "bbox": [[0.083, 0.083, 0.532, 0.113]]}]}, "tags": ["title"], "label": "article_title", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 2, "edu_l1_label": "BOT"}, {"txt": "中观景气度数据库和定量模型应用", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 100000, "bbox": [[0.083, 0.132, 0.441, 0.151]]}]}, "tags": ["title"], "label": "article_title", "web_segment_id": 11, "global_sentence_id": 3, "edu_l1_label": "BOS"}, {"txt": "从整体的行业景气度方面来看，本周汽车、家用电器、纺织服饰、医药生物、非银金融、银行、环保等行业整体呈上行趋势；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 200000, "bbox": [[0.083, 0.172, 0.648, 0.186], [0.083, 0.187, 0.437, 0.2]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 1, "global_sentence_id": 4, "edu_l1_label": "BOS"}, {"txt": "煤炭、机械设备、电子、食品饮料、轻工制造、房地产、公用事业等行业整体呈下行趋势。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 200000, "bbox": [[0.437, 0.187, 0.639, 0.2], [0.083, 0.201, 0.56, 0.214]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 1, "global_sentence_id": 5, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "基于我们2024 年10 月15 日外发的《全行业中观景气度数据库应用框架》内的模型及研究框架，本周，我们预测了未来4 周表现较优的申万二级行业。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 200000, "bbox": [[0.081, 0.222, 0.641, 0.253]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 10, "global_sentence_id": 6, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "重视汽车服务、摩托车及其他、轨交设备Ⅱ、铁路公路、饰品、航空机场、渔业、动物保健Ⅱ、纺织制造、塑料、服装家纺、化学纤维、橡胶、物流、电机Ⅱ等申万二级行业。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 300000, "bbox": [[0.083, 0.262, 0.638, 0.276], [0.083, 0.277, 0.638, 0.29], [0.083, 0.291, 0.267, 0.304]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 2, "global_sentence_id": 7, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "相对于上周，本周主要新增了摩托车及其他、动物保健Ⅱ、橡胶、物流等行业", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 300000, "bbox": [[0.267, 0.291, 0.638, 0.304], [0.083, 0.305, 0.28, 0.318]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 2, "global_sentence_id": 8, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "截至2025 年2 月16 日，重视行业值得关注的景气度数据有：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 300000, "bbox": [[0.082, 0.336, 0.636, 0.543]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 9, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "0% 汽车：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 300000, "bbox": [[0.082, 0.336, 0.636, 0.543]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 10, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "中国汽车轮胎（半钢胎）开工率为73.85%，较上周增加44.47 个百分点。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 300000, "bbox": [[0.082, 0.336, 0.636, 0.543]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 11, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "25 机械设备：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 300000, "bbox": [[0.082, 0.336, 0.636, 0.543]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 12, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "五金工具、磨具及磨料价格指数为114.63 点，较上周下降0.37%。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 300000, "bbox": [[0.082, 0.336, 0.636, 0.543]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 13, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "6 交通运输：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 300000, "bbox": [[0.082, 0.336, 0.636, 0.543]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 14, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "郑州地铁客运量为275.69 万人次，周环比上升20.79%；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 300000, "bbox": [[0.082, 0.336, 0.636, 0.543]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 15, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "上海地铁客运量为651.6 万人次，周环比下降27.49%。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 300000, "bbox": [[0.082, 0.336, 0.636, 0.543]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 16, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "FF 纺织服饰：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 300000, "bbox": [[0.082, 0.336, 0.636, 0.543]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 17, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "中国轻纺城成交量为675.0 万米，周环比上升81.94%；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 300000, "bbox": [[0.082, 0.336, 0.636, 0.543]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 18, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "老凤祥黄金价格为878.0 元/克，周环比下降1.13%。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 300000, "bbox": [[0.082, 0.336, 0.636, 0.543]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 19, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "16 农林牧渔：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 300000, "bbox": [[0.082, 0.336, 0.636, 0.543]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 20, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "白鲢鱼批发价为10.05 元/公斤，周环比上升6.12%；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 300000, "bbox": [[0.082, 0.336, 0.636, 0.543]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 21, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "肉鸡苗价格为1.96 元/羽，周环比下降21.91%。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 300000, "bbox": [[0.082, 0.336, 0.636, 0.543]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 22, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "8 基础化工：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 300000, "bbox": [[0.082, 0.336, 0.636, 0.543]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 23, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "江浙织机开工率为52.98%，较上周增加36.84 个百分点；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 300000, "bbox": [[0.082, 0.336, 0.636, 0.543]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 24, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "硝酸铵出厂价为2150.0 元/吨，周环比下降6.52%。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 300000, "bbox": [[0.082, 0.336, 0.636, 0.543]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 25, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "2 电力设备：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 300000, "bbox": [[0.082, 0.336, 0.636, 0.543]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 26, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "电线电缆价格指数为135.98 点，周环比微增0.01%；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 300000, "bbox": [[0.082, 0.336, 0.636, 0.543]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 27, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "Topcon组件（210mm，分布式）价格为0.63 元/瓦，周环比下降4.55%。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 300000, "bbox": [[0.082, 0.336, 0.636, 0.543]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 28, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "赛点2.0 第三阶段攻坚，社融脉冲已出现回升，春节归来进一步观察基本面改善情况，恒生已先行，A 股反应滞后。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 400000, "bbox": [[0.083, 0.566, 0.638, 0.579], [0.083, 0.58, 0.386, 0.594]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 0, "global_sentence_id": 29, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "根据经济复苏与市场流动性，可以把投资主线降维为三个方向：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 400000, "bbox": [[0.386, 0.58, 0.638, 0.594], [0.083, 0.595, 0.301, 0.608]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 0, "global_sentence_id": 30, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "（1）Deepseek 突破与开源引领的科技AI+（详见《DeepSeek 系列：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 400000, "bbox": [[0.301, 0.595, 0.638, 0.608], [0.083, 0.609, 0.246, 0.622]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 0, "global_sentence_id": 31, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "AI+投资图谱》（20250206）），（2）消费股的估值修复和消费分层逐步复苏（《让一部分人先消费起来》（20250102）），（3）低估红利继续崛起。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 400000, "bbox": [[0.246, 0.609, 0.638, 0.622], [0.083, 0.623, 0.638, 0.636], [0.083, 0.637, 0.183, 0.651]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 0, "global_sentence_id": 32, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "红利回撤常在有强势产业趋势出现的时候，因此低估红利的高度取决于AI 产业趋势的进展，而AI 产业趋势的进展又取决于AI 应用端和消费端的突破。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 400000, "bbox": [[0.183, 0.637, 0.638, 0.651], [0.083, 0.652, 0.638, 0.665], [0.083, 0.666, 0.183, 0.679]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 0, "global_sentence_id": 33, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "消费板块投资的核心因子是估值，在当前消费板块低估值、利率下行、政策催化下复苏周期抬头（哪怕是很弱的斜率），以宏观叙事而对消费过分悲观反而是一种风险，重视恒生互联网。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 400000, "bbox": [[0.183, 0.666, 0.638, 0.679], [0.083, 0.68, 0.638, 0.694], [0.083, 0.695, 0.43, 0.708]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 0, "global_sentence_id": 34, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "风险提示：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 400000, "bbox": [[0.083, 0.746, 0.168, 0.759]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "abstract", "web_segment_id": 7, "global_sentence_id": 35, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "1）历史复盘仅供参考；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 400000, "bbox": 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# 中观景气度高频跟踪及运用中观景气度数据库和定量模型应用
## 1. 模型预测结果
## 2. 中观景气度周频跟踪
### 2.1. 上游板块中观景气度跟踪
### 2.2. 中游板块中观景气度跟踪
### 2.3. 下游板块中观景气度跟踪
### 2.4. 金融房建板块中观景气度跟踪
### 2.5. 支持服务板块中观景气度跟踪
## 3. 风险提示
