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"IOS"}, {"txt": "中方的献议可能包括在美国投资设立太阳能、电动车和电池工厂，创造50万个就业机会；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4400000, "bbox": [[0.525, 0.847, 0.9, 0.857], [0.286, 0.872, 0.6, 0.882]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 105, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "中国企业与美国企业设立合资公司，持有少数股权，或授权美企使用中国科技；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4400000, "bbox": [[0.6, 0.872, 0.903, 0.883], [0.285, 0.895, 0.593, 0.907]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 106, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "中国大量购买美国商品，在维护朝鲜半", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4400000, "bbox": [[0.593, 0.895, 0.901, 0.906]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 107, "edu_l1_label": 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"chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4500000, "bbox": [[0.613, 0.142, 0.904, 0.148], [0.285, 0.167, 0.611, 0.178]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 3, "global_sentence_id": 114, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "乌克兰必须得到安全保障，其领土完整必须得到尊重；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4500000, "bbox": [[0.611, 0.167, 0.901, 0.177], [0.286, 0.191, 0.416, 0.201]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 3, "global_sentence_id": 115, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "欧盟加强对乌克兰的财政和军事支持。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4500000, "bbox": [[0.416, 0.191, 0.717, 0.202]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 3, "global_sentence_id": 116, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "3月4日美国决定对墨西哥、加拿大和中国进口商品加征关税而三国也坚定反制。", "language": "chinese", 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"position_id": 4900000, "bbox": [[0.081, 0.871, 0.156, 0.88]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "figure_title", "web_segment_id": 7, "global_sentence_id": 127, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "Wind，建信期货研究发展部", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4900000, "bbox": [[0.156, 0.871, 0.368, 0.881]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "figure_title", "web_segment_id": 7, "global_sentence_id": 128, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "图6：美联储2025年底政策利率预期", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 5000000, "bbox": [[0.51, 0.665, 0.827, 0.678]]}]}, "tags": ["figure_caption"], "label": "figure_title", "web_segment_id": 8, "global_sentence_id": 129, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "figure", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 5100000, "bbox": [[0.5, 0.691, 0.901, 0.865]]}]}, "tags": ["figure"], "label": "figure", "web_segment_id": 9, "global_sentence_id": 130, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "数据来源：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 5200000, "bbox": [[0.51, 0.871, 0.589, 0.881]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "figure_title", "web_segment_id": 10, "global_sentence_id": 131, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "MacroMicro，建信期货研究发展部", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 5200000, "bbox": [[0.589, 0.871, 0.847, 0.881]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "figure_title", "web_segment_id": 10, "global_sentence_id": 132, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "footer", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 5300000, "bbox": [[0.422, 0.927, 0.924, 0.938]]}]}, "tags": ["footer"], "label": "O", "web_segment_id": 11, "global_sentence_id": 133, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "header", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 5300000, "bbox": [[0.701, 0.026, 0.906, 0.067]]}]}, "tags": ["header"], "label": "O", "web_segment_id": 1, "global_sentence_id": 134, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "header", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 5300000, "bbox": [[0.076, 0.043, 0.173, 0.06]]}]}, "tags": ["header"], "label": "O", "web_segment_id": 2, "global_sentence_id": 135, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "3月6日欧洲央行下调政策利率25BP，实现自2024年6月份以来的第六次降息，美欧政策利差从最小87.5BP扩大到172.5BP。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 5400000, "bbox": [[0.32, 0.069, 0.903, 0.08], [0.285, 0.093, 0.67, 0.104]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 3, "global_sentence_id": 136, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "欧洲央行表示利率正在变得不那么限制性，反通胀进程进展顺利，潜在价格数据显示将在持续的基础上实现2％目标（此前表示将在今年内实现通胀目标）；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 5400000, "bbox": [[0.67, 0.093, 0.903, 0.104], [0.285, 0.118, 0.904, 0.128], [0.288, 0.143, 0.61, 0.153]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 3, "global_sentence_id": 137, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "这暗示通胀降温以及财政扩张预期可能使得欧洲央行放缓降息步伐。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 5400000, "bbox": [[0.61, 0.143, 0.902, 0.153], [0.286, 0.166, 0.528, 0.178]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 3, "global_sentence_id": 138, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "目前市场预期美联储将在6月、7月和10月会议分别降息25BP，概率分别为88.9％、59.2％和56.9％。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 5400000, "bbox": [[0.528, 0.166, 0.903, 0.177], [0.286, 0.191, 0.685, 0.201]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 3, "global_sentence_id": 139, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "二、贵金属市场分析", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 5500000, "bbox": [[0.287, 0.239, 0.497, 0.252]]}]}, "tags": ["title"], "label": "title1", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 140, "edu_l1_label": "BOS"}, {"txt": "2.1 美债利率与美元汇率", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 5600000, "bbox": [[0.284, 0.277, 0.507, 0.29]]}]}, "tags": ["title"], "label": "title2", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 141, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "2025年初至今美元指数在冲高至110之后震荡回落到104附近，因新政不确定性、关税武器化、联邦机构整顿以及加州山火和禽流感等外部因素因素在短期内抑制美国经济增长动能，美联储探讨暂停或放缓缩表进程以应对债务上限问题解决前可能出现的美国银行系统准备金波动风险，特朗普强力介入俄乌冲突降低了地缘政治风险带来的避险需求，欧洲财政刺激预期显著提振欧洲国债利率和欧元汇率。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 5700000, "bbox": [[0.32, 0.312, 0.903, 0.322], [0.285, 0.336, 0.901, 0.347], [0.285, 0.36, 0.901, 0.371], [0.286, 0.385, 0.902, 0.395], [0.288, 0.409, 0.901, 0.419], [0.286, 0.433, 0.348, 0.444]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 142, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "全年看，由于美国政府财政扩张与美联储紧缩货币构成正反馈循环，特朗普2.0关税武器化在增强美国经济就业通胀韧性的同时也会削弱海外经济增长动能，我们预计2025年美元指数继续偏强运行，美元指数核心波动区间为103-114；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 5700000, "bbox": [[0.348, 0.433, 0.902, 0.444], [0.285, 0.457, 0.9, 0.467], [0.286, 0.482, 0.856, 0.492], [0.285, 0.507, 0.354, 0.516]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 143, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "但由于特朗普2.0新政以及外部短期因素对美国经济的冲击，在美国通过降税减费政策以及美国经济就业通胀韧性再度增强之前美元指数将有阶段性降温过程。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 5700000, "bbox": [[0.354, 0.507, 0.903, 0.517], [0.286, 0.53, 0.9, 0.54], [0.285, 0.555, 0.352, 0.565]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 144, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "特朗普2.0关税武器化威胁冲击中国外贸形势并施压人民币汇率，但有迹象表明中国决策层有意维持人民币汇率稳定，我们判断2025年人民币汇率整体偏弱但贬值幅度取决于中美博弈因此存在较大不确定性，人民币兑美元汇率核心波动区间为7.1-7.7。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 5700000, "bbox": [[0.352, 0.555, 0.9, 0.565], [0.285, 0.578, 0.903, 0.589], [0.286, 0.603, 0.9, 0.612], [0.285, 0.627, 0.447, 0.637]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 145, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "图7：美元与人民币汇率", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 5800000, "bbox": [[0.08, 0.672, 0.294, 0.685]]}]}, "tags": ["figure_caption"], "label": "figure_title", "web_segment_id": 7, "global_sentence_id": 146, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "figure", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 5900000, "bbox": [[0.075, 0.693, 0.476, 0.875]]}]}, "tags": ["figure"], "label": "figure", "web_segment_id": 8, "global_sentence_id": 147, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "数据来源：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 6000000, "bbox": [[0.081, 0.878, 0.156, 0.887]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "figure_title", "web_segment_id": 9, "global_sentence_id": 148, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "Wind，建信期货研究发展部", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 6000000, "bbox": [[0.156, 0.878, 0.368, 0.888]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "figure_title", "web_segment_id": 9, "global_sentence_id": 149, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "图8：美国国债期限利差", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 6100000, "bbox": [[0.51, 0.672, 0.724, 0.685]]}]}, "tags": ["figure_caption"], "label": "figure_title", "web_segment_id": 10, "global_sentence_id": 150, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "figure", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 6200000, "bbox": [[0.501, 0.693, 0.901, 0.874]]}]}, "tags": ["figure"], "label": "figure", "web_segment_id": 11, "global_sentence_id": 151, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "数据来源：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 6300000, "bbox": [[0.51, 0.877, 0.588, 0.888]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "figure_title", "web_segment_id": 12, "global_sentence_id": 152, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "Wind，建信期货研究发展部", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 6300000, "bbox": [[0.588, 0.877, 0.797, 0.888]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "figure_title", "web_segment_id": 12, "global_sentence_id": 153, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "footer", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 6400000, "bbox": [[0.422, 0.927, 0.925, 0.938]]}]}, "tags": ["footer"], "label": "O", "web_segment_id": 13, "global_sentence_id": 154, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "header", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 6400000, "bbox": [[0.701, 0.026, 0.906, 0.067]]}]}, "tags": ["header"], "label": "O", "web_segment_id": 1, "global_sentence_id": 155, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "header", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 6400000, "bbox": [[0.076, 0.043, 0.173, 0.06]]}]}, "tags": ["header"], "label": "O", "web_segment_id": 2, "global_sentence_id": 156, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "2024年美国国债利率曲线利差从倒挂转为正向，3个月期美债利率回落103BP，而2年期和10年期国债利率分别上行2BP和70BP，主要是就业市场缓解与通胀韧性减弱使得美联储开启降息进程，但美联储降息与美国政府财政扩张重新增强就业与通胀韧性。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 6500000, "bbox": [[0.32, 0.07, 0.865, 0.079], [0.285, 0.094, 0.903, 0.105], [0.286, 0.118, 0.901, 0.129], [0.286, 0.143, 0.469, 0.153]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 3, "global_sentence_id": 157, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "2025年初至今美国10年期国债利率先从4.58％回升到4.79％再回落到4.16%，特朗普对内大规模驱逐移民、整顿联邦机构以及对外关税武器化使得美国经济衰退风险显著上升，市场对美联储降息预期再度升温。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 6500000, "bbox": [[0.469, 0.143, 0.892, 0.153], [0.284, 0.167, 0.903, 0.177], [0.285, 0.191, 0.857, 0.202]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 3, "global_sentence_id": 158, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "全年看，美国政府财政扩张以及地缘政治机遇增强美国经济就业与通胀韧性，但美联储政策利率和美元汇率偏高运行也会抑制通胀压力，特朗普2.0新政不确定性提振避险需求，我们判断2025年美债利率大概率高位盘整，10年期国债利率核心波动区间为4-5％。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 6500000, "bbox": [[0.857, 0.191, 0.902, 0.202], [0.285, 0.215, 0.902, 0.226], [0.285, 0.24, 0.902, 0.251], [0.285, 0.264, 0.895, 0.274], [0.285, 0.287, 0.421, 0.299]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 3, "global_sentence_id": 159, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "2.2 市场投资情绪", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 6600000, "bbox": [[0.284, 0.33, 0.446, 0.341]]}]}, "tags": ["title"], "label": "title2", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 160, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "现货市场方面，2024年初至5月上旬全球金银ETF持仓量继续延续2022年下半年以来的下降趋势，而在金银价格突破上涨2个月之后金银ETF持仓量也企稳回升，2025年以来特朗普新政不确定性提振黄金ETF投资意愿但全球经济增长动能前景减弱抑制白银ETF投资意愿。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 6700000, "bbox": [[0.321, 0.364, 0.897, 0.375], [0.285, 0.389, 0.902, 0.398], [0.286, 0.413, 0.903, 0.423], [0.286, 0.437, 0.575, 0.447]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 161, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "2025年3月6日SPDR黄金ETF持仓量为898.64吨，较2024年5月份阶段性低点高出8.9%;", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 6700000, "bbox": [[0.575, 0.437, 0.895, 0.448], [0.285, 0.462, 0.678, 0.471]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 162, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "SLV白银ETF持仓量为13509吨，较2024年10月份阶段性高点回落9.7％。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 6700000, "bbox": [[0.678, 0.462, 0.903, 0.47], [0.286, 0.485, 0.633, 0.495]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 163, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "图9：贵金属ETF持仓量", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 6800000, "bbox": [[0.08, 0.53, 0.285, 0.543]]}]}, "tags": ["figure_caption"], "label": "figure_title", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 164, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "figure", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 6900000, "bbox": [[0.073, 0.552, 0.475, 0.732]]}]}, "tags": ["figure"], "label": "figure", "web_segment_id": 7, "global_sentence_id": 165, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "数据来源：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 7000000, "bbox": [[0.081, 0.736, 0.156, 0.745]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "figure_title", "web_segment_id": 8, "global_sentence_id": 166, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "Wind，建信期货研究发展部", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 7000000, "bbox": [[0.156, 0.736, 0.368, 0.746]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "figure_title", "web_segment_id": 8, "global_sentence_id": 167, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "图10：贵金属CFTC基金净多率", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 7100000, "bbox": [[0.51, 0.53, 0.776, 0.544]]}]}, "tags": ["figure_caption"], "label": "figure_title", "web_segment_id": 9, "global_sentence_id": 168, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "figure", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 7200000, "bbox": [[0.5, 0.552, 0.905, 0.731]]}]}, "tags": ["figure"], "label": "figure", "web_segment_id": 10, "global_sentence_id": 169, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "数据来源：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 7300000, "bbox": 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# 中国加大逆周期调节力度应对外需不确定性
## 一、宏观环境评述
### 1.1 经济：美国经济短期衰退风险
### 1.2 政策：中国加大逆周期调节力度
## 二、贵金属市场分析
### 2.1 美债利率与美元汇率
### 2.2 市场投资情绪
### 2.3 贵金属回顾展望
### 2.4贵金属相关图表
