{"entry_id": "a1875564-2ee9-43a0-a30a-ce8fae58eb31", "infos": [{"txt": "证券研究报告·策略报告·策略点评", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 0, "bbox": [[0.083, 0.026, 0.458, 0.041]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "O", "web_segment_id": 1, "global_sentence_id": 0, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "策略点评20250203", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 100000, "bbox": [[0.074, 0.05, 0.318, 0.067]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "publish_time", "web_segment_id": 2, "global_sentence_id": 1, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "DeepSeek 引发全球涨跌互现？", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 200000, "bbox": [[0.071, 0.083, 0.478, 0.097]]}]}, "tags": ["title"], "label": "article_title", "web_segment_id": 3, "global_sentence_id": 2, "edu_l1_label": "BOT"}, {"txt": "--全球市场观察系列", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 200000, "bbox": [[0.478, 0.083, 0.649, 0.1], [0.071, 0.107, 0.217, 0.127]]}]}, "tags": ["title"], "label": "article_title", "web_segment_id": 3, "global_sentence_id": 3, "edu_l1_label": "BOT"}, {"txt": "本周（2025年1月27日-2025年2月2日），全球大类资产涨势收窄甚至转跌：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 300000, "bbox": [[0.102, 0.148, 0.641, 0.159], [0.102, 0.163, 0.142, 0.172]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 4, "edu_l1_label": "BOS"}, {"txt": "MSCI发达市场扭转今年以来的上涨趋势，本周转跌（-0.5%)，新兴市场相对于发达市场略微领先（0.3%）。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 300000, "bbox": [[0.142, 0.163, 0.64, 0.174], [0.103, 0.178, 0.386, 0.187]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 5, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "发达市场涨跌互现：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 400000, "bbox": [[0.1, 0.201, 0.242, 0.211]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 6, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "受到DeepSeek影响，纳指领跌（-1.6%)，日股跟跌（-0.9%)，但是欧洲STOXX600及德国DAX分别上涨1.8％及1.6%，创下历史新高；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 400000, "bbox": [[0.242, 0.201, 0.642, 0.21], [0.101, 0.217, 0.64, 0.225], [0.103, 0.23, 0.158, 0.239]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 7, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "新兴市场小幅上涨，印度及巴西分别上涨1.8％及3%，主要是基于两个原因：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 400000, "bbox": [[0.158, 0.23, 0.642, 0.24], [0.102, 0.244, 0.192, 0.253]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 8, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "一是，印度及巴西尚未受到特朗普加征关税的影响；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 400000, "bbox": [[0.192, 0.244, 0.569, 0.253]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 9, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "二是，印度政府推出减税政策（免除年收入120万卢比以下纳税人所得税），刺激了印度股市的上涨。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 400000, "bbox": [[0.569, 0.244, 0.641, 0.253], [0.102, 0.258, 0.639, 0.268], [0.102, 0.273, 0.226, 0.283]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 10, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "此外，海外降息预期抬升，长端国债利率下行。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 500000, "bbox": [[0.102, 0.296, 0.447, 0.306]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 11, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "一是，鲍威尔在美联储议息会议后放鸽，叠加美国经济数据边际走弱，市场押注3月降息预期小幅抬升，美债利率下行5bp。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 500000, "bbox": [[0.447, 0.296, 0.641, 0.306], [0.102, 0.311, 0.64, 0.319], [0.102, 0.325, 0.292, 0.336]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 12, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "二是，欧央行降息25bp，德国长期国债及英国长期国债分别下降10bp及2bp。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 500000, "bbox": [[0.292, 0.325, 0.639, 0.334], [0.102, 0.339, 0.331, 0.349]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 13, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "美国股指涨势暂歇，主要是受到DeepSeek对美股科技的冲击，拖累标普500及纳指的表现。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 600000, "bbox": [[0.102, 0.362, 0.642, 0.372], [0.101, 0.378, 0.238, 0.386]]}]}, "tags": ["title"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 7, "global_sentence_id": 14, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "总结来看，本周美股主要围绕着三大关键词：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 600000, "bbox": [[0.238, 0.378, 0.562, 0.386]]}]}, "tags": ["title"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 7, "global_sentence_id": 15, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "DeepSeek、财报、美联储。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 600000, "bbox": [[0.562, 0.378, 0.641, 0.386], [0.101, 0.391, 0.209, 0.401]]}]}, "tags": ["title"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 7, "global_sentence_id": 16, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "具体来看：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 600000, "bbox": [[0.209, 0.391, 0.291, 0.401]]}]}, "tags": ["title"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 7, "global_sentence_id": 17, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "DeepSeek引发美股科技焦虑。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 700000, "bbox": [[0.102, 0.415, 0.321, 0.425]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 8, "global_sentence_id": 18, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "1月27日，DeepSeek火爆出圈，以极低成本和少量芯片实现了与OpenAI等巨头比肩的性能，颠覆了游戏规则的DeepSeek成为美股科技加速下跌的催化剂，标普500及纳指分别大幅下跌1.5％及3％。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 700000, "bbox": [[0.321, 0.415, 0.64, 0.423], [0.103, 0.429, 0.64, 0.439], [0.102, 0.444, 0.641, 0.455], [0.102, 0.458, 0.187, 0.467]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 8, "global_sentence_id": 19, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "但随后DeepSeek对美股的冲击缓释，主要是基于：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 700000, "bbox": [[0.187, 0.458, 0.564, 0.467]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 8, "global_sentence_id": 20, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "1）扎克伯格重申2025年对Meta追加600-650亿美元资本投资计划；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 700000, "bbox": [[0.564, 0.458, 0.641, 0.467], [0.103, 0.473, 0.523, 0.481]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 8, "global_sentence_id": 21, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "2）美股科技龙头已围绕其业务建立重要的竞争护城河，推翻Mag7并非易事；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 700000, "bbox": [[0.523, 0.473, 0.641, 0.48], [0.103, 0.486, 0.557, 0.495]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 8, "global_sentence_id": 22, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "3）机构投资者认为DeepSeek削弱七大巨头表现的空间有限：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 700000, "bbox": [[0.557, 0.486, 0.641, 0.495], [0.102, 0.499, 0.484, 0.51]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 8, "global_sentence_id": 23, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "根据 Bloomberg的一项调查，88％的人表示在未来几周内DeepSeek对美国科技巨头的股票几乎没有影响，相反近60％的人认为关税政策才是美股波动的关键因素。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 700000, "bbox": [[0.484, 0.499, 0.641, 0.507], [0.102, 0.514, 0.641, 0.523], [0.102, 0.529, 0.609, 0.538]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 8, "global_sentence_id": 24, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "1月28日，标普500及纳指分别反弹近1％及2％。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 700000, "bbox": [[0.609, 0.529, 0.638, 0.539], [0.101, 0.543, 0.434, 0.553]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 8, "global_sentence_id": 25, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "科技巨头财报不及预期。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 800000, "bbox": [[0.101, 0.565, 0.283, 0.575]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 9, "global_sentence_id": 26, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "除Meta财报全面超预期外，美股科技中特斯拉、微软、苹果等均存在不同程度不及预期的业务板块，拖累美股科技下跌。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 800000, "bbox": [[0.283, 0.565, 0.638, 0.575], [0.102, 0.58, 0.629, 0.59]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 9, "global_sentence_id": 27, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "美联储降息的“新剧本”。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 900000, "bbox": [[0.102, 0.603, 0.289, 0.613]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 10, "global_sentence_id": 28, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "美联储决议上删除了“通胀在朝着2％的目标取得进展的措辞”，只保留了后面的半句“（通胀）仍然高企”，显示出美联储对通胀再次加速上升抱有忧虑，市场认为这是一次“鹰派”不降息。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 900000, "bbox": [[0.289, 0.603, 0.641, 0.613], [0.102, 0.618, 0.64, 0.628], [0.101, 0.632, 0.579, 0.643]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 10, "global_sentence_id": 29, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "欧洲股市何以创新高？", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1000000, "bbox": [[0.102, 0.656, 0.26, 0.666]]}]}, "tags": ["title"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 11, "global_sentence_id": 30, "edu_l1_label": "BOS"}, {"txt": "我们认为有几个因素：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1000000, "bbox": [[0.26, 0.656, 0.426, 0.666]]}]}, "tags": ["title"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 11, "global_sentence_id": 31, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "一，欧洲股市连续3周上涨，主要基于补涨逻辑。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1100000, "bbox": [[0.102, 0.682, 0.452, 0.689]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 12, "global_sentence_id": 32, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "2024年欧股年涨幅近6%，落后于发达市场中标普500(23%）及日经225(19%)，也低于中国资产，比如恒生国企（26%）及沪深300(15%)，反映出欧股在2024年是超跌落后，2025年出现补涨。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1100000, "bbox": [[0.452, 0.682, 0.642, 0.689], [0.102, 0.693, 0.64, 0.704], [0.102, 0.708, 0.641, 0.719], [0.101, 0.723, 0.265, 0.733]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 12, "global_sentence_id": 33, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "二，市场阶段性布局“低估”的欧洲。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1200000, "bbox": [[0.102, 0.746, 0.377, 0.755]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 13, "global_sentence_id": 34, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "一是，近期美国基本面放缓，考虑到美国的安全性边际减弱，市场切换到相对更加安全且便宜的市场。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1200000, "bbox": [[0.377, 0.746, 0.641, 0.756], [0.102, 0.76, 0.581, 0.77]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 13, "global_sentence_id": 35, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "因此资金为寻找更厚安全垫，从美股向欧股轮动（根据1月美银基金经理调查，1月份对欧洲股票配置出现了过去25年中的第二大增幅，使得对欧股的配置从22％的低配飙升至1％超配，而对美股的配置从12月份创纪录的36％超配降至19％超配）。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1200000, "bbox": [[0.581, 0.76, 0.64, 0.77], [0.102, 0.774, 0.64, 0.784], [0.103, 0.789, 0.64, 0.799], [0.103, 0.804, 0.641, 0.812], [0.102, 0.817, 0.244, 0.827]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 13, "global_sentence_id": 36, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "二是，特朗普的关税政策尚未威胁到欧洲，市场担忧情绪缓解。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1200000, "bbox": [[0.244, 0.817, 0.64, 0.827], [0.102, 0.831, 0.16, 0.842]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 13, "global_sentence_id": 37, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "三，欧洲财报部分超预期。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1300000, "bbox": [[0.102, 0.856, 0.301, 0.865]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 14, "global_sentence_id": 38, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "欧股一系列企业财报乐观，提振了欧股。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 1300000, "bbox": [[0.301, 0.856, 0.607, 0.865]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 14, "global_sentence_id": 39, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "截至2025年2月2日，在已经披露的138家公司中，除能源及公用事业外，其余公司营业收入均实现超预期上涨。", 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[{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 6500000, "bbox": [[0.187, 0.12, 0.855, 0.131]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 155, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "本研究报告仅供东吴证券股份有限公司（以下简称“本公司”）的客户使用。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 6600000, "bbox": [[0.186, 0.14, 0.769, 0.151]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 156, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "本公司不会因接收人收到本报告而视其为客户。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 6600000, "bbox": [[0.769, 0.14, 0.847, 0.15], [0.15, 0.158, 0.44, 0.169]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 157, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "在任何情况下，本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议，本公司及作者不对任何人因使用本报告中的内容所导致的任何后果负任何责任。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 6600000, "bbox": [[0.44, 0.158, 0.847, 0.169], [0.151, 0.178, 0.846, 0.188], [0.151, 0.197, 0.263, 0.208]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 158, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "任何形式的分享证券投资收益或者分担证券投资损失的书面或口头承诺均为无效。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 6600000, "bbox": [[0.263, 0.197, 0.846, 0.208], [0.151, 0.217, 0.192, 0.227]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 159, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "在法律许可的情况下，东吴证券及其所属关联机构可能会持有报告中提到的公司所发行的证券并进行交易，还可能为这些公司提供投资银行服务或其他服务。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 6700000, "bbox": [[0.186, 0.236, 0.848, 0.247], [0.151, 0.256, 0.688, 0.266]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 160, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "市场有风险，投资需谨慎。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 6800000, "bbox": [[0.187, 0.276, 0.385, 0.286]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 7, "global_sentence_id": 161, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "本报告是基于本公司分析师认为可靠且已公开的信息，本公司力求但不保证这些信息的准确性和完整性，也不保证文中观点或陈述不会发生任何变更，在不同时期，本公司可发出与本报告所载资料、意见及推测不一致的报告。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 6800000, "bbox": [[0.385, 0.276, 0.847, 0.286], [0.152, 0.294, 0.849, 0.305], [0.151, 0.314, 0.722, 0.325]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 7, "global_sentence_id": 162, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "本报告的版权归本公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 6900000, "bbox": [[0.186, 0.334, 0.848, 0.344], [0.15, 0.353, 0.234, 0.363]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 8, "global_sentence_id": 163, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "经授权刊载、转发本报告或者摘要的，应当注明出处为东吴证券研究所，并注明本报告发布人和发布日期，提示使用本报告的风险，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 6900000, "bbox": [[0.234, 0.353, 0.846, 0.363], [0.151, 0.372, 0.846, 0.383], [0.151, 0.391, 0.253, 0.402]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 8, "global_sentence_id": 164, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "未经授权或未按要求刊载、转发本报告的，应当承担相应的法律责任。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 6900000, "bbox": [[0.253, 0.391, 0.792, 0.402]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 8, "global_sentence_id": 165, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "本公司将保留向其追究法律责任的权利。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 6900000, "bbox": [[0.792, 0.391, 0.845, 0.403], [0.15, 0.41, 0.404, 0.422]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 8, "global_sentence_id": 166, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "东吴证券投资评级标准", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 7000000, "bbox": [[0.151, 0.447, 0.334, 0.459]]}]}, "tags": ["title"], "label": "title1", "web_segment_id": 9, "global_sentence_id": 167, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "投资评级基于分析师对报告发布日后6至12个月内行业或公司回报潜力相对基准表现的预期（A股市场基准为沪深300指数，香港市场基准为恒生指数，美国市场基准为标普500指数，新三板基准指数为三板成指（针对协议转让标的）或三板做市指数（针对做市转让标的），北交所基准指数为北证50指数），具体如下：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 7100000, "bbox": [[0.186, 0.467, 0.848, 0.479], [0.151, 0.488, 0.847, 0.499], [0.15, 0.508, 0.847, 0.518], [0.151, 0.526, 0.589, 0.537]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 10, "global_sentence_id": 168, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "公司投资评级：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 7200000, "bbox": [[0.186, 0.546, 0.297, 0.555]]}]}, "tags": ["title"], "label": "title2", "web_segment_id": 11, "global_sentence_id": 169, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "买入：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 7300000, "bbox": [[0.187, 0.566, 0.227, 0.575]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 12, "global_sentence_id": 170, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "预期未来6个月个股涨跌幅相对基准在15％以上；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 7300000, "bbox": [[0.227, 0.566, 0.617, 0.575]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 12, "global_sentence_id": 171, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "增持：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 7400000, "bbox": [[0.186, 0.584, 0.227, 0.594]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 13, "global_sentence_id": 172, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "预期未来6个月个股涨跌幅相对基准介于5％与15％之间；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 7400000, "bbox": [[0.227, 0.584, 0.679, 0.594]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 13, "global_sentence_id": 173, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "中性：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 7500000, "bbox": [[0.187, 0.603, 0.227, 0.614]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 14, "global_sentence_id": 174, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "预期未来6个月个股涨跌幅相对基准介于-5％与5％之间；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 7500000, "bbox": [[0.227, 0.603, 0.677, 0.614]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 14, "global_sentence_id": 175, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "减持：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 7600000, "bbox": [[0.186, 0.623, 0.227, 0.634]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 15, "global_sentence_id": 176, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "预期未来6个月个股涨跌幅相对基准介于-15％与-5％之间；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 7600000, "bbox": [[0.227, 0.623, 0.685, 0.635]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 15, "global_sentence_id": 177, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "卖出：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 7700000, "bbox": [[0.187, 0.642, 0.227, 0.653]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 16, "global_sentence_id": 178, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "预期未来6个月个股涨跌幅相对基准在-15％以下。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 7700000, "bbox": [[0.227, 0.642, 0.623, 0.653]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 16, "global_sentence_id": 179, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "行业投资评级：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 7800000, "bbox": [[0.186, 0.662, 0.297, 0.672]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "title2", "web_segment_id": 17, "global_sentence_id": 180, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "增持：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 7900000, "bbox": [[0.186, 0.681, 0.227, 0.692]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 18, "global_sentence_id": 181, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "预期未来6个月内，行业指数相对强于基准5％以上；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 7900000, "bbox": [[0.227, 0.681, 0.652, 0.692]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 18, "global_sentence_id": 182, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "中性：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 8000000, "bbox": [[0.187, 0.701, 0.226, 0.711]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 19, "global_sentence_id": 183, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "预期未来6个月内，行业指数相对基准-5％与5%；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 8000000, "bbox": [[0.226, 0.701, 0.628, 0.711]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 19, "global_sentence_id": 184, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "减持：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 8100000, "bbox": [[0.186, 0.72, 0.227, 0.73]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 20, "global_sentence_id": 185, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "预期未来6个月内，行业指数相对弱于基准5％以上。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 8100000, "bbox": [[0.227, 0.72, 0.652, 0.731]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 20, "global_sentence_id": 186, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "我们在此提醒您，不同证券研究机构采用不同的评级术语及评级标准。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 8200000, "bbox": [[0.186, 0.739, 0.72, 0.75]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 21, "global_sentence_id": 187, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "我们采用的是相对评级体系，表示投资的相对比重建议。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 8200000, "bbox": [[0.72, 0.739, 0.848, 0.75], [0.15, 0.758, 0.457, 0.769]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 21, "global_sentence_id": 188, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "投资者买入或者卖出证券的决定应当充分考虑自身特定状况，如具体投资目的、财务状况以及特定需求等，并完整理解和使用本报告内容，不应视本报告为做出投资决策的唯一因素。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 8200000, "bbox": [[0.457, 0.758, 0.846, 0.77], [0.15, 0.778, 0.847, 0.789], [0.151, 0.798, 0.457, 0.808]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 21, "global_sentence_id": 189, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "东吴证券研究所", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 8300000, "bbox": [[0.725, 0.817, 0.848, 0.829]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 22, "global_sentence_id": 190, "edu_l1_label": "EDU_O"}, {"txt": "苏州工业园区星阳街5号", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 8400000, "bbox": [[0.655, 0.837, 0.846, 0.848]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], 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# DeepSeek 引发全球涨跌互现？--全球市场观察系列
## 本周（2025年1月27日-2025年2月2日），全球大类资产涨势收窄甚至转跌：MSCI发达市场扭转今年以来的上涨趋势，本周转跌（-0.5%)，新兴市场相对于发达市场略微领先（0.3%）。
## 美国股指涨势暂歇，主要是受到DeepSeek对美股科技的冲击，拖累标普500及纳指的表现。
### DeepSeek引发美股科技焦虑。
### 科技巨头财报不及预期。
### 美联储降息的“新剧本”。
## 欧洲股市何以创新高？我们认为有几个因素：
### 一，欧洲股市连续3周上涨，主要基于补涨逻辑。
### 二，市场阶段性布局“低估”的欧洲。
### 三，欧洲财报部分超预期。
### 四是，欧央行如期降息25bp。
## 全球股票ETF本周净流入加速，债券本周净流入加速：
## 下周重点关注事件及数据：
## 风险提示：全球基本面超预期，美联储政策超预期，全球贸易政策超预期。
