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"web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 49, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "但在另一方面，9 月PPI、生产资料PPI 同比降幅分别较8 月走扩1.0 和1.3 个百分点，受内需不足影响，价格端延续弱势，进而影响企业盈利能力。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3000000, "bbox": [[0.566, 0.327, 0.94, 0.339], [0.085, 0.343, 0.795, 0.354]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 5, "global_sentence_id": 50, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "前三季度制造业利润总额同比下滑3.8%，增速较1-8 月转负下滑4.9 个百分点，对工业企业盈利能力的支撑继续减弱具体到子行业，2024 年前三季度原材料加工业盈利延续走弱，拖累当期工业企业利润累计同比增速3.3 个百分点，负贡献较1-8 月继续加深1.3 个百分点，而负贡献主要来自石油煤炭等燃料加工业、非金属矿物制品业及黑色金属加工业，分别拖累前三季度工业企业利润总额累计同比增速1.3、2.1 和1.1 个百分点。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3100000, "bbox": [[0.085, 0.365, 0.931, 0.377], [0.085, 0.381, 0.94, 0.392], [0.085, 0.396, 0.939, 0.408], [0.085, 0.411, 0.683, 0.423]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 3, "global_sentence_id": 51, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "此外，据我们测算， 前三季度高技术制造业对工企利润累计同比增速的正贡献仅实现0.3 个百分点，较1-8 月延续下滑；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3200000, "bbox": [[0.085, 0.434, 0.94, 0.446], [0.085, 0.449, 0.118, 0.461]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 52, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "而传统设备制造业对前三季度工企利润累计同比增速的贡献由正转负，拖累当期工企利润累计同比增速0.3 个百分点，制造业对工业企业盈利的支撑作用延续减弱。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3200000, "bbox": [[0.118, 0.449, 0.94, 0.461], [0.085, 0.465, 0.471, 0.477]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 4, "global_sentence_id": 53, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "需求端对工业企业盈利能力仍有掣肘。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3300000, "bbox": [[0.085, 0.487, 0.37, 0.499]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 2, "global_sentence_id": 54, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "前三季度原材料加工业对工企盈利同比增速的拖累较1-8 月更加明显，而从结构看，黑色金属冶炼加工业和非金属矿物制品业均是重要拖累，两行业景气度与房地产行业息息相关，地产投资不足仍是国内需求重要短板。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3300000, "bbox": [[0.37, 0.487, 0.939, 0.499], [0.085, 0.503, 0.939, 0.515], [0.085, 0.518, 0.269, 0.53]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 2, "global_sentence_id": 55, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "此外，传统设备制造业、高技术制造业对工业企业盈利增速的贡献均出现走弱，除基数效应影响外，国内需求有待进一步提振。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3300000, "bbox": [[0.269, 0.518, 0.939, 0.53], [0.085, 0.534, 0.353, 0.545]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 2, "global_sentence_id": 56, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "9 月26 日，中共中央政治局召开会议，“加力推出增量政策”，进入10 月各部委积极落实一揽子增量政策，四季度财政增量政策值得期待。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3400000, "bbox": [[0.085, 0.554, 0.939, 0.568], [0.085, 0.571, 0.253, 0.583]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 57, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "当前工业企业盈利不足，或需财政政策进一步发力需求侧，除更好地发挥政府投资的带动作用外，财政有望通过加强转移支付的收入再分配作用，激发国内消费潜能。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3400000, "bbox": [[0.253, 0.571, 0.939, 0.583], [0.085, 0.587, 0.622, 0.599]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 6, "global_sentence_id": 58, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "风险提示：", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3500000, "bbox": [[0.085, 0.609, 0.169, 0.621]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 12, "global_sentence_id": 59, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "海外衰退风险；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3500000, "bbox": [[0.169, 0.609, 0.286, 0.621]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 12, "global_sentence_id": 60, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "地缘关系的不确定性。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3500000, "bbox": [[0.286, 0.609, 0.454, 0.621]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 12, "global_sentence_id": 61, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "【固定收益】“特朗普交易”强化—高频数据扫描", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3600000, "bbox": [[0.085, 0.653, 0.439, 0.665]]}]}, "tags": ["title"], "label": "title2", "web_segment_id": 11, "global_sentence_id": 62, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "肖成哲  张鹏", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3700000, "bbox": [[0.085, 0.675, 0.177, 0.687]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 16, "global_sentence_id": 63, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "美国当前仍处于“紧货币+宽财政”政策组合，应注意市场对“特朗普交易”的影响预期过满。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3800000, "bbox": [[0.085, 0.698, 0.751, 0.71]]}]}, "tags": ["title"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 13, "global_sentence_id": 64, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "1. “特朗普交易”强化。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3900000, "bbox": [[0.085, 0.72, 0.251, 0.732]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 1, "global_sentence_id": 65, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "美国大选临近，尽管两位总统候选人民调仍然接近，但由于美国选举制度的特殊性，市场对特朗普当选的预期有所强化。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3900000, "bbox": [[0.251, 0.72, 0.939, 0.732], [0.085, 0.736, 0.286, 0.748]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 1, "global_sentence_id": 66, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "《华尔街日报》10 月23 日公布的的民调数据显示，特朗普的支持率领先于哈里斯两个百分点。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3900000, "bbox": [[0.286, 0.736, 0.939, 0.748], [0.085, 0.751, 0.135, 0.763]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 1, "global_sentence_id": 67, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "FOX 新闻10 月的民调也显示特朗普在全美以50%对48%领先哈里斯，而9 月时FOX 的民调示哈里斯领先。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3900000, "bbox": [[0.135, 0.751, 0.924, 0.763]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 1, "global_sentence_id": 68, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "我们此前的报告提到，美国知名选情分析师西尔弗认为哈里斯未在选举人票方面掌握明显优势（《如何看中美长债对降息的反应》20240929）。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3900000, "bbox": [[0.924, 0.751, 0.939, 0.763], [0.085, 0.766, 0.939, 0.778], [0.085, 0.782, 0.269, 0.794]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 1, "global_sentence_id": 69, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "西尔弗估算，哈里斯需至少以三个百分点的优势赢得普选，才有望在选举人票方面有明显优势。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3900000, "bbox": [[0.269, 0.782, 0.939, 0.794], [0.085, 0.797, 0.118, 0.809]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 1, "global_sentence_id": 70, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "此外，共和党支持者的提前投票人数也好于前两次大选。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3900000, "bbox": [[0.118, 0.797, 0.539, 0.809]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 1, "global_sentence_id": 71, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "“特朗普交易”随着选情变化而走强，上周（2024 年10月21 日-10 月26 日，下同），美元汇率和美债收益率上行，美元指数突破104，美国国债10 年期收益率升至4.2%以上。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 3900000, "bbox": [[0.539, 0.797, 0.939, 0.811], [0.085, 0.813, 0.939, 0.825], [0.085, 0.828, 0.118, 0.84]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 1, "global_sentence_id": 72, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "应注意市场对“特朗普交易”的影响预期过满。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4000000, "bbox": [[0.085, 0.851, 0.419, 0.863]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 0, "global_sentence_id": 73, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "“特朗普交易”的基本逻辑是，特朗普在减税（影响财政赤字）、移民（影响劳动力供给）等方面的政策主张，可能加剧美国通胀和利率上行风险。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4000000, "bbox": [[0.419, 0.851, 0.939, 0.863], [0.085, 0.866, 0.621, 0.878]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 0, "global_sentence_id": 74, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "但值得注意的是，美国当前执行的政策组合事实上已是“紧货币+宽财政”。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4000000, "bbox": [[0.621, 0.866, 0.939, 0.878], [0.085, 0.882, 0.31, 0.893]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 0, "global_sentence_id": 75, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "2023 年至2024 年上半年，美国联邦政府经常性收入占GDP 之比事实上与疫情前的特朗普前三年任期内的水平相当，处于上世纪80 年代以来的偏低水平；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4000000, "bbox": [[0.31, 0.882, 0.939, 0.893], [0.085, 0.897, 0.596, 0.909]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 0, "global_sentence_id": 76, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "而支出占GDP 之比则高于特朗普前三年任期。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4000000, "bbox": [[0.596, 0.897, 0.939, 0.909]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 0, "global_sentence_id": 77, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "即使特朗普确实当选，我们预计其经济政策的首要任务也是降通胀和降利率，而不是继续压低已在低位的失业率，货币政策转松的趋势大概率将延续；", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4000000, "bbox": [[0.085, 0.912, 0.939, 0.924], [0.085, 0.928, 0.336, 0.94]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 0, "global_sentence_id": 78, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "财政方面，可能推出一定减税措施，但同时也可能对政府开支进行一定削减，财政政策力度不排除弱于当前。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4000000, "bbox": [[0.336, 0.928, 0.939, 0.94], [0.085, 0.943, 0.286, 0.955]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 0, "global_sentence_id": 79, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "footer", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4100000, "bbox": [[0.453, 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{"txt": "2. 食用农产品价格回落。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4200000, "bbox": [[0.085, 0.09, 0.268, 0.104]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 8, "global_sentence_id": 84, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "上周农业部猪肉平均批发价环比降0.99%，但同比涨幅扩大至17.56%。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4200000, "bbox": [[0.268, 0.09, 0.789, 0.104]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 8, "global_sentence_id": 85, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "山东蔬菜批发价指数环比降5.44%，同比涨22.86%。", "language": "chinese", "position": {"pdf_position": [{"page_number": 0, "shape": [1650, 1275], "position_id": 4200000, "bbox": [[0.789, 0.09, 0.939, 0.104], [0.085, 0.108, 0.322, 0.12]]}]}, "tags": ["text"], "label": "content", "web_segment_id": 8, "global_sentence_id": 86, "edu_l1_label": "IOS"}, {"txt": "10 月18 日当周，食用农产品价格指数同比涨幅收窄至3.63%。", 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# 中银晨会聚焦-20241029
## ■重点关注
### 【宏观经济】9 月及三季度工企利润数据点评*陈琦  朱启兵。
### 【固定收益】“特朗普交易”强化*肖成哲  张鹏 。
### 【金融工程】主动权益基金2024 年三季度配置分析*郭策。
### 【电子】沪电股份*苏凌瑶。
### 【电子】韦尔股份*苏凌瑶。
## 重点关注
### 【宏观经济】9 月及三季度工企利润数据点评—需求端对工业企业盈利能力仍有掣肘
### 【固定收益】“特朗普交易”强化—高频数据扫描
### 【金融工程】主动权益基金2024 年三季度配置分析—主动权益基金加仓电力设备及新能源和非银行金融，减持电力及公用事业和有色金属
### 【电子】沪电股份—AI 景气持续，加速布局高端产能
#### 支撑评级的要点
#### 评级面临的主要风险
### 【电子】韦尔股份—2024Q3 业绩创新高，高阶手机CIS 持续导入，自动驾驶CIS 持续渗透
#### 支撑评级的要点
#### 评级面临的主要风险
