Daily Papers

This work presents SGCDet, a novel multi-view indoor 3D object detection framework based on adaptive 3D volume construction. Unlike previous approaches that restrict the receptive field of voxels to fixed locations on images, we introduce a geometry and context aware aggregation module to integrate geometric and contextual information within adaptive regions in each image and dynamically adjust the contributions from different views, enhancing the representation capability of voxel features. Furthermore, we propose a sparse volume construction strategy that adaptively identifies and selects voxels with high occupancy probabilities for feature refinement, minimizing redundant computation in free space. Benefiting from the above designs, our framework achieves effective and efficient volume construction in an adaptive way. Better still, our network can be supervised using only 3D bounding boxes, eliminating the dependence on ground-truth scene geometry. Experimental results demonstrate that SGCDet achieves state-of-the-art performance on the ScanNet, ScanNet200 and ARKitScenes datasets. The source code is available at https://github.com/RM-Zhang/SGCDet.

We introduce a new family of video prediction models designed to support downstream control tasks. We call these models Video Occupancy models (VOCs). VOCs operate in a compact latent space, thus avoiding the need to make predictions about individual pixels. Unlike prior latent-space world models, VOCs directly predict the discounted distribution of future states in a single step, thus avoiding the need for multistep roll-outs. We show that both properties are beneficial when building predictive models of video for use in downstream control. Code is available at https://github.com/manantomar/video-occupancy-models{github.com/manantomar/video-occupancy-models}.

MDPs with low-rank transitions -- that is, the transition matrix can be factored into the product of two matrices, left and right -- is a highly representative structure that enables tractable learning. The left matrix enables expressive function approximation for value-based learning and has been studied extensively. In this work, we instead investigate sample-efficient learning with density features, i.e., the right matrix, which induce powerful models for state-occupancy distributions. This setting not only sheds light on leveraging unsupervised learning in RL, but also enables plug-in solutions for convex RL. In the offline setting, we propose an algorithm for off-policy estimation of occupancies that can handle non-exploratory data. Using this as a subroutine, we further devise an online algorithm that constructs exploratory data distributions in a level-by-level manner. As a central technical challenge, the additive error of occupancy estimation is incompatible with the multiplicative definition of data coverage. In the absence of strong assumptions like reachability, this incompatibility easily leads to exponential error blow-up, which we overcome via novel technical tools. Our results also readily extend to the representation learning setting, when the density features are unknown and must be learned from an exponentially large candidate set.

3D occupancy prediction is important for autonomous driving due to its comprehensive perception of the surroundings. To incorporate sequential inputs, most existing methods fuse representations from previous frames to infer the current 3D occupancy. However, they fail to consider the continuity of driving scenarios and ignore the strong prior provided by the evolution of 3D scenes (e.g., only dynamic objects move). In this paper, we propose a world-model-based framework to exploit the scene evolution for perception. We reformulate 3D occupancy prediction as a 4D occupancy forecasting problem conditioned on the current sensor input. We decompose the scene evolution into three factors: 1) ego motion alignment of static scenes; 2) local movements of dynamic objects; and 3) completion of newly-observed scenes. We then employ a Gaussian world model (GaussianWorld) to explicitly exploit these priors and infer the scene evolution in the 3D Gaussian space considering the current RGB observation. We evaluate the effectiveness of our framework on the widely used nuScenes dataset. Our GaussianWorld improves the performance of the single-frame counterpart by over 2% in mIoU without introducing additional computations. Code: https://github.com/zuosc19/GaussianWorld.

Occupancy prediction aims to estimate the 3D spatial distribution of occupied regions along with their corresponding semantic labels. Existing vision-based methods perform well on daytime benchmarks but struggle in nighttime scenarios due to limited visibility and challenging lighting conditions. To address these challenges, we propose LIAR, a novel framework that learns illumination-affined representations. LIAR first introduces Selective Low-light Image Enhancement (SLLIE), which leverages the illumination priors from daytime scenes to adaptively determine whether a nighttime image is genuinely dark or sufficiently well-lit, enabling more targeted global enhancement. Building on the illumination maps generated by SLLIE, LIAR further incorporates two illumination-aware components: 2D Illumination-guided Sampling (2D-IGS) and 3D Illumination-driven Projection (3D-IDP), to respectively tackle local underexposure and overexposure. Specifically, 2D-IGS modulates feature sampling positions according to illumination maps, assigning larger offsets to darker regions and smaller ones to brighter regions, thereby alleviating feature degradation in underexposed areas. Subsequently, 3D-IDP enhances semantic understanding in overexposed regions by constructing illumination intensity fields and supplying refined residual queries to the BEV context refinement process. Extensive experiments on both real and synthetic datasets demonstrate the superior performance of LIAR under challenging nighttime scenarios. The source code and pretrained models are available https://github.com/yanzq95/LIAR{here}.

Understanding the 3D geometry and semantics of driving scenes is critical for safe autonomous driving. Recent advances in 3D occupancy prediction have improved scene representation but often suffer from spatial inconsistencies, leading to floating artifacts and poor surface localization. Existing voxel-wise losses (e.g., cross-entropy) fail to enforce geometric coherence. In this paper, we propose GaussRender, a module that improves 3D occupancy learning by enforcing projective consistency. Our key idea is to project both predicted and ground-truth 3D occupancy into 2D camera views, where we apply supervision. Our method penalizes 3D configurations that produce inconsistent 2D projections, thereby enforcing a more coherent 3D structure. To achieve this efficiently, we leverage differentiable rendering with Gaussian splatting. GaussRender seamlessly integrates with existing architectures while maintaining efficiency and requiring no inference-time modifications. Extensive evaluations on multiple benchmarks (SurroundOcc-nuScenes, Occ3D-nuScenes, SSCBench-KITTI360) demonstrate that GaussRender significantly improves geometric fidelity across various 3D occupancy models (TPVFormer, SurroundOcc, Symphonies), achieving state-of-the-art results, particularly on surface-sensitive metrics. The code is open-sourced at https://github.com/valeoai/GaussRender.

Semantic occupancy perception is essential for autonomous driving, as automated vehicles require a fine-grained perception of the 3D urban structures. However, existing relevant benchmarks lack diversity in urban scenes, and they only evaluate front-view predictions. Towards a comprehensive benchmarking of surrounding perception algorithms, we propose OpenOccupancy, which is the first surrounding semantic occupancy perception benchmark. In the OpenOccupancy benchmark, we extend the large-scale nuScenes dataset with dense semantic occupancy annotations. Previous annotations rely on LiDAR points superimposition, where some occupancy labels are missed due to sparse LiDAR channels. To mitigate the problem, we introduce the Augmenting And Purifying (AAP) pipeline to ~2x densify the annotations, where ~4000 human hours are involved in the labeling process. Besides, camera-based, LiDAR-based and multi-modal baselines are established for the OpenOccupancy benchmark. Furthermore, considering the complexity of surrounding occupancy perception lies in the computational burden of high-resolution 3D predictions, we propose the Cascade Occupancy Network (CONet) to refine the coarse prediction, which relatively enhances the performance by ~30% than the baseline. We hope the OpenOccupancy benchmark will boost the development of surrounding occupancy perception algorithms.

Accurately predicting 3D occupancy grids from visual inputs is critical for autonomous driving, but current discriminative methods struggle with noisy data, incomplete observations, and the complex structures inherent in 3D scenes. In this work, we reframe 3D occupancy prediction as a generative modeling task using diffusion models, which learn the underlying data distribution and incorporate 3D scene priors. This approach enhances prediction consistency, noise robustness, and better handles the intricacies of 3D spatial structures. Our extensive experiments show that diffusion-based generative models outperform state-of-the-art discriminative approaches, delivering more realistic and accurate occupancy predictions, especially in occluded or low-visibility regions. Moreover, the improved predictions significantly benefit downstream planning tasks, highlighting the practical advantages of our method for real-world autonomous driving applications.

Camera-based 3D occupancy prediction has recently garnered increasing attention in outdoor driving scenes. However, research in indoor scenes remains relatively unexplored. The core differences in indoor scenes lie in the complexity of scene scale and the variance in object size. In this paper, we propose a novel method, named ISO, for predicting indoor scene occupancy using monocular images. ISO harnesses the advantages of a pretrained depth model to achieve accurate depth predictions. Furthermore, we introduce the Dual Feature Line of Sight Projection (D-FLoSP) module within ISO, which enhances the learning of 3D voxel features. To foster further research in this domain, we introduce Occ-ScanNet, a large-scale occupancy benchmark for indoor scenes. With a dataset size 40 times larger than the NYUv2 dataset, it facilitates future scalable research in indoor scene analysis. Experimental results on both NYUv2 and Occ-ScanNet demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance. The dataset and code are made publicly at https://github.com/hongxiaoy/ISO.git.

The 3D occupancy prediction task has witnessed remarkable progress in recent years, playing a crucial role in vision-based autonomous driving systems. While traditional methods are limited to fixed semantic categories, recent approaches have moved towards predicting text-aligned features to enable open-vocabulary text queries in real-world scenes. However, there exists a trade-off in text-aligned scene modeling: sparse Gaussian representation struggles to capture small objects in the scene, while dense representation incurs significant computational overhead. To address these limitations, we present PG-Occ, an innovative Progressive Gaussian Transformer Framework that enables open-vocabulary 3D occupancy prediction. Our framework employs progressive online densification, a feed-forward strategy that gradually enhances the 3D Gaussian representation to capture fine-grained scene details. By iteratively enhancing the representation, the framework achieves increasingly precise and detailed scene understanding. Another key contribution is the introduction of an anisotropy-aware sampling strategy with spatio-temporal fusion, which adaptively assigns receptive fields to Gaussians at different scales and stages, enabling more effective feature aggregation and richer scene information capture. Through extensive evaluations, we demonstrate that PG-Occ achieves state-of-the-art performance with a relative 14.3% mIoU improvement over the previous best performing method. Code and pretrained models will be released upon publication on our project page: https://yanchi-3dv.github.io/PG-Occ

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

We propose DOME, a diffusion-based world model that predicts future occupancy frames based on past occupancy observations. The ability of this world model to capture the evolution of the environment is crucial for planning in autonomous driving. Compared to 2D video-based world models, the occupancy world model utilizes a native 3D representation, which features easily obtainable annotations and is modality-agnostic. This flexibility has the potential to facilitate the development of more advanced world models. Existing occupancy world models either suffer from detail loss due to discrete tokenization or rely on simplistic diffusion architectures, leading to inefficiencies and difficulties in predicting future occupancy with controllability. Our DOME exhibits two key features:(1) High-Fidelity and Long-Duration Generation. We adopt a spatial-temporal diffusion transformer to predict future occupancy frames based on historical context. This architecture efficiently captures spatial-temporal information, enabling high-fidelity details and the ability to generate predictions over long durations. (2)Fine-grained Controllability. We address the challenge of controllability in predictions by introducing a trajectory resampling method, which significantly enhances the model's ability to generate controlled predictions. Extensive experiments on the widely used nuScenes dataset demonstrate that our method surpasses existing baselines in both qualitative and quantitative evaluations, establishing a new state-of-the-art performance on nuScenes. Specifically, our approach surpasses the baseline by 10.5% in mIoU and 21.2% in IoU for occupancy reconstruction and by 36.0% in mIoU and 24.6% in IoU for 4D occupancy forecasting.

3D scene understanding plays a vital role in vision-based autonomous driving. While most existing methods focus on 3D object detection, they have difficulty describing real-world objects of arbitrary shapes and infinite classes. Towards a more comprehensive perception of a 3D scene, in this paper, we propose a SurroundOcc method to predict the 3D occupancy with multi-camera images. We first extract multi-scale features for each image and adopt spatial 2D-3D attention to lift them to the 3D volume space. Then we apply 3D convolutions to progressively upsample the volume features and impose supervision on multiple levels. To obtain dense occupancy prediction, we design a pipeline to generate dense occupancy ground truth without expansive occupancy annotations. Specifically, we fuse multi-frame LiDAR scans of dynamic objects and static scenes separately. Then we adopt Poisson Reconstruction to fill the holes and voxelize the mesh to get dense occupancy labels. Extensive experiments on nuScenes and SemanticKITTI datasets demonstrate the superiority of our method. Code and dataset are available at https://github.com/weiyithu/SurroundOcc

Human driver can easily describe the complex traffic scene by visual system. Such an ability of precise perception is essential for driver's planning. To achieve this, a geometry-aware representation that quantizes the physical 3D scene into structured grid map with semantic labels per cell, termed as 3D Occupancy, would be desirable. Compared to the form of bounding box, a key insight behind occupancy is that it could capture the fine-grained details of critical obstacles in the scene, and thereby facilitate subsequent tasks. Prior or concurrent literature mainly concentrate on a single scene completion task, where we might argue that the potential of this occupancy representation might obsess broader impact. In this paper, we propose OccNet, a multi-view vision-centric pipeline with a cascade and temporal voxel decoder to reconstruct 3D occupancy. At the core of OccNet is a general occupancy embedding to represent 3D physical world. Such a descriptor could be applied towards a wide span of driving tasks, including detection, segmentation and planning. To validate the effectiveness of this new representation and our proposed algorithm, we propose OpenOcc, the first dense high-quality 3D occupancy benchmark built on top of nuScenes. Empirical experiments show that there are evident performance gain across multiple tasks, e.g., motion planning could witness a collision rate reduction by 15%-58%, demonstrating the superiority of our method.

In NeRF, a critical problem is to effectively estimate the occupancy to guide empty-space skipping and point sampling. Grid-based methods work well for small-scale scenes. However, on large-scale scenes, they are limited by predefined bounding boxes, grid resolutions, and high memory usage for grid updates, and thus struggle to speed up training for large-scale, irregularly bounded and complex urban scenes without sacrificing accuracy. In this paper, we propose to learn a continuous and compact large-scale occupancy network, which can classify 3D points as occupied or unoccupied points. We train this occupancy network end-to-end together with the radiance field in a self-supervised manner by three designs. First, we propose a novel imbalanced occupancy loss to regularize the occupancy network. It makes the occupancy network effectively control the ratio of unoccupied and occupied points, motivated by the prior that most of 3D scene points are unoccupied. Second, we design an imbalanced architecture containing a large scene network and a small empty space network to separately encode occupied and unoccupied points classified by the occupancy network. This imbalanced structure can effectively model the imbalanced nature of occupied and unoccupied regions. Third, we design an explicit density loss to guide the occupancy network, making the density of unoccupied points smaller. As far as we know, we are the first to learn a continuous and compact occupancy of large-scale NeRF by a network. In our experiments, our occupancy network can quickly learn more compact, accurate and smooth occupancy compared to the occupancy grid. With our learned occupancy as guidance for empty space skipping on challenging large-scale benchmarks, our method consistently obtains higher accuracy compared to the occupancy grid, and our method can speed up state-of-the-art NeRF methods without sacrificing accuracy.

We introduce UniOcc, a comprehensive, unified benchmark for occupancy forecasting (i.e., predicting future occupancies based on historical information) and current-frame occupancy prediction from camera images. UniOcc unifies data from multiple real-world datasets (i.e., nuScenes, Waymo) and high-fidelity driving simulators (i.e., CARLA, OpenCOOD), which provides 2D/3D occupancy labels with per-voxel flow annotations and support for cooperative autonomous driving. In terms of evaluation, unlike existing studies that rely on suboptimal pseudo labels for evaluation, UniOcc incorporates novel metrics that do not depend on ground-truth occupancy, enabling robust assessment of additional aspects of occupancy quality. Through extensive experiments on state-of-the-art models, we demonstrate that large-scale, diverse training data and explicit flow information significantly enhance occupancy prediction and forecasting performance.

3D occupancy prediction holds significant promise in the fields of robot perception and autonomous driving, which quantifies 3D scenes into grid cells with semantic labels. Recent works mainly utilize complete occupancy labels in 3D voxel space for supervision. However, the expensive annotation process and sometimes ambiguous labels have severely constrained the usability and scalability of 3D occupancy models. To address this, we present RenderOcc, a novel paradigm for training 3D occupancy models only using 2D labels. Specifically, we extract a NeRF-style 3D volume representation from multi-view images, and employ volume rendering techniques to establish 2D renderings, thus enabling direct 3D supervision from 2D semantics and depth labels. Additionally, we introduce an Auxiliary Ray method to tackle the issue of sparse viewpoints in autonomous driving scenarios, which leverages sequential frames to construct comprehensive 2D rendering for each object. To our best knowledge, RenderOcc is the first attempt to train multi-view 3D occupancy models only using 2D labels, reducing the dependence on costly 3D occupancy annotations. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RenderOcc achieves comparable performance to models fully supervised with 3D labels, underscoring the significance of this approach in real-world applications.

Recent advancements in camera-based occupancy prediction have focused on the simultaneous prediction of 3D semantics and scene flow, a task that presents significant challenges due to specific difficulties, e.g., occlusions and unbalanced dynamic environments. In this paper, we analyze these challenges and their underlying causes. To address them, we propose a novel regularization framework called VoxelSplat. This framework leverages recent developments in 3D Gaussian Splatting to enhance model performance in two key ways: (i) Enhanced Semantics Supervision through 2D Projection: During training, our method decodes sparse semantic 3D Gaussians from 3D representations and projects them onto the 2D camera view. This provides additional supervision signals in the camera-visible space, allowing 2D labels to improve the learning of 3D semantics. (ii) Scene Flow Learning: Our framework uses the predicted scene flow to model the motion of Gaussians, and is thus able to learn the scene flow of moving objects in a self-supervised manner using the labels of adjacent frames. Our method can be seamlessly integrated into various existing occupancy models, enhancing performance without increasing inference time. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of VoxelSplat in improving the accuracy of both semantic occupancy and scene flow estimation. The project page and codes are available at https://zzy816.github.io/VoxelSplat-Demo/.

Existing vision-based 3D occupancy prediction methods are inherently limited in accuracy due to their exclusive reliance on street-view imagery, neglecting the potential benefits of incorporating satellite views. We propose SA-Occ, the first Satellite-Assisted 3D occupancy prediction model, which leverages GPS & IMU to integrate historical yet readily available satellite imagery into real-time applications, effectively mitigating limitations of ego-vehicle perceptions, involving occlusions and degraded performance in distant regions. To address the core challenges of cross-view perception, we propose: 1) Dynamic-Decoupling Fusion, which resolves inconsistencies in dynamic regions caused by the temporal asynchrony between satellite and street views; 2) 3D-Proj Guidance, a module that enhances 3D feature extraction from inherently 2D satellite imagery; and 3) Uniform Sampling Alignment, which aligns the sampling density between street and satellite views. Evaluated on Occ3D-nuScenes, SA-Occ achieves state-of-the-art performance, especially among single-frame methods, with a 39.05% mIoU (a 6.97% improvement), while incurring only 6.93 ms of additional latency per frame. Our code and newly curated dataset are available at https://github.com/chenchen235/SA-Occ.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown strong vision-language reasoning abilities but still lack robust 3D spatial understanding, which is critical for autonomous driving. This limitation stems from two key challenges: (1) the difficulty of constructing accessible yet effective 3D representations without expensive manual annotations, and (2) the loss of fine-grained spatial details in VLMs due to the absence of large-scale 3D vision-language pretraining. To address these challenges, we propose OccVLA, a novel framework that integrates 3D occupancy representations into a unified multimodal reasoning process. Unlike prior approaches that rely on explicit 3D inputs, OccVLA treats dense 3D occupancy as both a predictive output and a supervisory signal, enabling the model to learn fine-grained spatial structures directly from 2D visual inputs. The occupancy predictions are regarded as implicit reasoning processes and can be skipped during inference without performance degradation, thereby adding no extra computational overhead. OccVLA achieves state-of-the-art results on the nuScenes benchmark for trajectory planning and demonstrates superior performance on 3D visual question-answering tasks, offering a scalable, interpretable, and fully vision-based solution for autonomous driving.

Training deep learning models for semantic occupancy prediction is challenging due to factors such as a large number of occupancy cells, severe occlusion, limited visual cues, complicated driving scenarios, etc. Recent methods often adopt transformer-based architectures given their strong capability in learning input-conditioned weights and long-range relationships. However, transformer-based networks are notorious for their quadratic computation complexity, seriously undermining their efficacy and deployment in semantic occupancy prediction. Inspired by the global modeling and linear computation complexity of the Mamba architecture, we present the first Mamba-based network for semantic occupancy prediction, termed OccMamba. Specifically, we first design the hierarchical Mamba module and local context processor to better aggregate global and local contextual information, respectively. Besides, to relieve the inherent domain gap between the linguistic and 3D domains, we present a simple yet effective 3D-to-1D reordering scheme, i.e., height-prioritized 2D Hilbert expansion. It can maximally retain the spatial structure of 3D voxels as well as facilitate the processing of Mamba blocks. Endowed with the aforementioned designs, our OccMamba is capable of directly and efficiently processing large volumes of dense scene grids, achieving state-of-the-art performance across three prevalent occupancy prediction benchmarks, including OpenOccupancy, SemanticKITTI, and SemanticPOSS. Notably, on OpenOccupancy, our OccMamba outperforms the previous state-of-the-art Co-Occ by 5.1% IoU and 4.3% mIoU, respectively. Our implementation is open-sourced and available at: https://github.com/USTCLH/OccMamba.

Intelligent agents must be generalists - showing the ability to quickly adapt and generalize to varying tasks. Within the framework of reinforcement learning (RL), model-based RL algorithms learn a task-agnostic dynamics model of the world, in principle allowing them to generalize to arbitrary rewards. However, one-step models naturally suffer from compounding errors, making them ineffective for problems with long horizons and large state spaces. In this work, we propose a novel class of models - generalized occupancy models (GOMs) - that retain the generality of model-based RL while avoiding compounding error. The key idea behind GOMs is to model the distribution of all possible long-term outcomes from a given state under the coverage of a stationary dataset, along with a policy that realizes a particular outcome from the given state. These models can then quickly be used to select the optimal action for arbitrary new tasks, without having to redo policy optimization. By directly modeling long-term outcomes, GOMs avoid compounding error while retaining generality across arbitrary reward functions. We provide a practical instantiation of GOMs using diffusion models and show its efficacy as a new class of transferable models, both theoretically and empirically across a variety of simulated robotics problems. Videos and code at https://weirdlabuw.github.io/gom/.

Most mobile robots for indoor use rely on 2D laser scanners for localization, mapping and navigation. These sensors, however, cannot detect transparent surfaces or measure the full occupancy of complex objects such as tables. Deep Neural Networks have recently been proposed to overcome this limitation by learning to estimate object occupancy. These estimates are nevertheless subject to uncertainty, making the evaluation of their confidence an important issue for these measures to be useful for autonomous navigation and mapping. In this work we approach the problem from two sides. First we discuss uncertainty estimation in deep models, proposing a solution based on a fully convolutional neural network. The proposed architecture is not restricted by the assumption that the uncertainty follows a Gaussian model, as in the case of many popular solutions for deep model uncertainty estimation, such as Monte-Carlo Dropout. We present results showing that uncertainty over obstacle distances is actually better modeled with a Laplace distribution. Then, we propose a novel approach to build maps based on Deep Neural Network uncertainty models. In particular, we present an algorithm to build a map that includes information over obstacle distance estimates while taking into account the level of uncertainty in each estimate. We show how the constructed map can be used to increase global navigation safety by planning trajectories which avoid areas of high uncertainty, enabling higher autonomy for mobile robots in indoor settings.

LiDAR-based 3D sensors provide point clouds, a canonical 3D representation used in various scene understanding tasks. Modern LiDARs face key challenges in several real-world scenarios, such as long-distance or low-albedo objects, producing sparse or erroneous point clouds. These errors, which are rooted in the noisy raw LiDAR measurements, get propagated to downstream perception models, resulting in potentially severe loss of accuracy. This is because conventional 3D processing pipelines do not retain any uncertainty information from the raw measurements when constructing point clouds. We propose Probabilistic Point Clouds (PPC), a novel 3D scene representation where each point is augmented with a probability attribute that encapsulates the measurement uncertainty (or confidence) in the raw data. We further introduce inference approaches that leverage PPC for robust 3D object detection; these methods are versatile and can be used as computationally lightweight drop-in modules in 3D inference pipelines. We demonstrate, via both simulations and real captures, that PPC-based 3D inference methods outperform several baselines using LiDAR as well as camera-LiDAR fusion models, across challenging indoor and outdoor scenarios involving small, distant, and low-albedo objects, as well as strong ambient light. Our project webpage is at https://bhavyagoyal.github.io/ppc .

There has been considerable recent interest in scoring properties on the basis of eviction risk. The success of methods for eviction prediction is typically evaluated using different measures of predictive accuracy. However, the underlying goal of such prediction is to direct appropriate assistance to households that may be at greater risk so they remain stably housed. Thus, we must ask the question of how useful such predictions are in targeting outreach efforts - informing action. In this paper, we investigate this question using a novel dataset that matches information on properties, evictions, and owners. We perform an eviction prediction task to produce risk scores and then use these risk scores to plan targeted outreach policies. We show that the risk scores are, in fact, useful, enabling a theoretical team of caseworkers to reach more eviction-prone properties in the same amount of time, compared to outreach policies that are either neighborhood-based or focus on buildings with a recent history of evictions. We also discuss the importance of neighborhood and ownership features in both risk prediction and targeted outreach.

The task of vision-based 3D occupancy prediction aims to reconstruct 3D geometry and estimate its semantic classes from 2D color images, where the 2D-to-3D view transformation is an indispensable step. Most previous methods conduct forward projection, such as BEVPooling and VoxelPooling, both of which map the 2D image features into 3D grids. However, the current grid representing features within a certain height range usually introduces many confusing features that belong to other height ranges. To address this challenge, we present Deep Height Decoupling (DHD), a novel framework that incorporates explicit height prior to filter out the confusing features. Specifically, DHD first predicts height maps via explicit supervision. Based on the height distribution statistics, DHD designs Mask Guided Height Sampling (MGHS) to adaptively decouple the height map into multiple binary masks. MGHS projects the 2D image features into multiple subspaces, where each grid contains features within reasonable height ranges. Finally, a Synergistic Feature Aggregation (SFA) module is deployed to enhance the feature representation through channel and spatial affinities, enabling further occupancy refinement. On the popular Occ3D-nuScenes benchmark, our method achieves state-of-the-art performance even with minimal input frames. Source code is released at https://github.com/yanzq95/DHD.

Physics is based on probabilities as fundamental entities of a mathematical description. Expectation values of observables are computed according to the classical statistical rule. The overall probability distribution for one world covers all times. The quantum formalism arises once one focuses on the evolution of the time-local probabilistic information. Wave functions or the density matrix allow the formulation of a general linear evolution law for classical statistics. The quantum formalism for classical statistics is a powerful tool which allows us to implement for generalized Ising models the momentum observable with the associated Fourier representation. The association of operators to observables permits the computation of expectation values in terms of the density matrix by the usual quantum rule. We show that probabilistic cellular automata are quantum systems in a formulation with discrete time steps and real wave functions. With a complex structure the evolution operator for automata can be expressed in terms of a Hamiltonian involving fermionic creation and annihilation operators. The time-local probabilistic information amounts to a subsystem of the overall probabilistic system which is correlated with its environment consisting of the past and future. Such subsystems typically involve probabilistic observables for which only a probability distribution for their possible measurement values is available. Incomplete statistics does not permit to compute classical correlation functions for arbitrary subsystem-observables. Bell's inequalities are not generally applicable.

Probability estimation models play an important role in various fields, such as weather forecasting, recommendation systems, and sports analysis. Among several models estimating probabilities, it is difficult to evaluate which model gives reliable probabilities since the ground-truth probabilities are not available. The win probability estimation model for esports, which calculates the win probability under a certain game state, is also one of the fields being actively studied in probability estimation. However, most of the previous works evaluated their models using accuracy, a metric that only can measure the performance of discrimination. In this work, we firstly investigate the Brier score and the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) as a replacement of accuracy used as a performance evaluation metric for win probability estimation models in esports field. Based on the analysis, we propose a novel metric called Balance score which is a simple yet effective metric in terms of six good properties that probability estimation metric should have. Under the general condition, we also found that the Balance score can be an effective approximation of the true expected calibration error which has been imperfectly approximated by ECE using the binning technique. Extensive evaluations using simulation studies and real game snapshot data demonstrate the promising potential to adopt the proposed metric not only for the win probability estimation model for esports but also for evaluating general probability estimation models.

3D occupancy, an advanced perception technology for driving scenarios, represents the entire scene without distinguishing between foreground and background by quantifying the physical space into a grid map. The widely adopted projection-first deformable attention, efficient in transforming image features into 3D representations, encounters challenges in aggregating multi-view features due to sensor deployment constraints. To address this issue, we propose our learning-first view attention mechanism for effective multi-view feature aggregation. Moreover, we showcase the scalability of our view attention across diverse multi-view 3D tasks, including map construction and 3D object detection. Leveraging the proposed view attention as well as an additional multi-frame streaming temporal attention, we introduce ViewFormer, a vision-centric transformer-based framework for spatiotemporal feature aggregation. To further explore occupancy-level flow representation, we present FlowOcc3D, a benchmark built on top of existing high-quality datasets. Qualitative and quantitative analyses on this benchmark reveal the potential to represent fine-grained dynamic scenes. Extensive experiments show that our approach significantly outperforms prior state-of-the-art methods. The codes are available at https://github.com/ViewFormerOcc/ViewFormer-Occ.

3D occupancy prediction provides a comprehensive description of the surrounding scenes and has become an essential task for 3D perception. Most existing methods focus on offline perception from one or a few views and cannot be applied to embodied agents that demand to gradually perceive the scene through progressive embodied exploration. In this paper, we formulate an embodied 3D occupancy prediction task to target this practical scenario and propose a Gaussian-based EmbodiedOcc framework to accomplish it. We initialize the global scene with uniform 3D semantic Gaussians and progressively update local regions observed by the embodied agent. For each update, we extract semantic and structural features from the observed image and efficiently incorporate them via deformable cross-attention to refine the regional Gaussians. Finally, we employ Gaussian-to-voxel splatting to obtain the global 3D occupancy from the updated 3D Gaussians. Our EmbodiedOcc assumes an unknown (i.e., uniformly distributed) environment and maintains an explicit global memory of it with 3D Gaussians. It gradually gains knowledge through the local refinement of regional Gaussians, which is consistent with how humans understand new scenes through embodied exploration. We reorganize an EmbodiedOcc-ScanNet benchmark based on local annotations to facilitate the evaluation of the embodied 3D occupancy prediction task. Our EmbodiedOcc outperforms existing methods by a large margin and accomplishes the embodied occupancy prediction with high accuracy and efficiency. Code: https://github.com/YkiWu/EmbodiedOcc.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are models that allow exact and tractable probabilistic inference. In contrast to neural networks, they are often assumed to be well-calibrated and robust to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. In this paper, we show that PCs are in fact not robust to OOD data, i.e., they don't know what they don't know. We then show how this challenge can be overcome by model uncertainty quantification. To this end, we propose tractable dropout inference (TDI), an inference procedure to estimate uncertainty by deriving an analytical solution to Monte Carlo dropout (MCD) through variance propagation. Unlike MCD in neural networks, which comes at the cost of multiple network evaluations, TDI provides tractable sampling-free uncertainty estimates in a single forward pass. TDI improves the robustness of PCs to distribution shift and OOD data, demonstrated through a series of experiments evaluating the classification confidence and uncertainty estimates on real-world data.

We consider the problem of performing Bayesian inference in probabilistic models where observations are accompanied by uncertainty, referred to as "uncertain evidence." We explore how to interpret uncertain evidence, and by extension the importance of proper interpretation as it pertains to inference about latent variables. We consider a recently-proposed method "distributional evidence" as well as revisit two older methods: Jeffrey's rule and virtual evidence. We devise guidelines on how to account for uncertain evidence and we provide new insights, particularly regarding consistency. To showcase the impact of different interpretations of the same uncertain evidence, we carry out experiments in which one interpretation is defined as "correct." We then compare inference results from each different interpretation illustrating the importance of careful consideration of uncertain evidence.

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are the current state-of-the-art meta-algorithm for volumetric segmentation of medical data, for example, to localize COVID-19 infected tissue on computer tomography scans or the detection of tumour volumes in magnetic resonance imaging. A key limitation of 3D CNNs on voxelised data is that the memory consumption grows cubically with the training data resolution. Occupancy networks (O-Nets) are an alternative for which the data is represented continuously in a function space and 3D shapes are learned as a continuous decision boundary. While O-Nets are significantly more memory efficient than 3D CNNs, they are limited to simple shapes, are relatively slow at inference, and have not yet been adapted for 3D semantic segmentation of medical data. Here, we propose Occupancy Networks for Semantic Segmentation (OSS-Nets) to accurately and memory-efficiently segment 3D medical data. We build upon the original O-Net with modifications for increased expressiveness leading to improved segmentation performance comparable to 3D CNNs, as well as modifications for faster inference. We leverage local observations to represent complex shapes and prior encoder predictions to expedite inference. We showcase OSS-Net's performance on 3D brain tumour and liver segmentation against a function space baseline (O-Net), a performance baseline (3D residual U-Net), and an efficiency baseline (2D residual U-Net). OSS-Net yields segmentation results similar to the performance baseline and superior to the function space and efficiency baselines. In terms of memory efficiency, OSS-Net consumes comparable amounts of memory as the function space baseline, somewhat more memory than the efficiency baseline and significantly less than the performance baseline. As such, OSS-Net enables memory-efficient and accurate 3D semantic segmentation that can scale to high resolutions.

Occupancy Grid Maps are widely used in navigation for their ability to represent 3D space occupancy. However, existing methods that utilize multi-view cameras to construct Occupancy Networks for perception modeling suffer from cubic growth in data complexity. Adopting a Bird's-Eye View (BEV) perspective offers a more practical solution for autonomous driving, as it provides higher semantic density and mitigates complex object occlusions. Nonetheless, BEV-based approaches still require extensive engineering optimizations to enable efficient large-scale global modeling. To address this challenge, we propose InstanceBEV, the first method to introduce instance-level dimensionality reduction for BEV, enabling global modeling with transformers without relying on sparsification or acceleration operators. Different from other BEV methods, our approach directly employs transformers to aggregate global features. Compared to 3D object detection models, our method samples global feature maps into 3D space. Experiments on OpenOcc-NuScenes dataset show that InstanceBEV achieves state-of-the-art performance while maintaining a simple, efficient framework without requiring additional optimizations.

Online 3D occupancy prediction provides a comprehensive spatial understanding of embodied environments. While the innovative EmbodiedOcc framework utilizes 3D semantic Gaussians for progressive indoor occupancy prediction, it overlooks the geometric characteristics of indoor environments, which are primarily characterized by planar structures. This paper introduces EmbodiedOcc++, enhancing the original framework with two key innovations: a Geometry-guided Refinement Module (GRM) that constrains Gaussian updates through plane regularization, along with a Semantic-aware Uncertainty Sampler (SUS) that enables more effective updates in overlapping regions between consecutive frames. GRM regularizes the position update to align with surface normals. It determines the adaptive regularization weight using curvature-based and depth-based constraints, allowing semantic Gaussians to align accurately with planar surfaces while adapting in complex regions. To effectively improve geometric consistency from different views, SUS adaptively selects proper Gaussians to update. Comprehensive experiments on the EmbodiedOcc-ScanNet benchmark demonstrate that EmbodiedOcc++ achieves state-of-the-art performance across different settings. Our method demonstrates improved edge accuracy and retains more geometric details while ensuring computational efficiency, which is essential for online embodied perception. The code will be released at: https://github.com/PKUHaoWang/EmbodiedOcc2.

In Online Continual Learning (OCL) a learning system receives a stream of data and sequentially performs prediction and training steps. Important challenges in OCL are concerned with automatic adaptation to the particular non-stationary structure of the data, and with quantification of predictive uncertainty. Motivated by these challenges we introduce a probabilistic Bayesian online learning model by using a (possibly pretrained) neural representation and a state space model over the linear predictor weights. Non-stationarity over the linear predictor weights is modelled using a parameter drift transition density, parametrized by a coefficient that quantifies forgetting. Inference in the model is implemented with efficient Kalman filter recursions which track the posterior distribution over the linear weights, while online SGD updates over the transition dynamics coefficient allows to adapt to the non-stationarity seen in data. While the framework is developed assuming a linear Gaussian model, we also extend it to deal with classification problems and for fine-tuning the deep learning representation. In a set of experiments in multi-class classification using data sets such as CIFAR-100 and CLOC we demonstrate the predictive ability of the model and its flexibility to capture non-stationarity.

3D Semantic Occupancy Prediction is fundamental for spatial understanding as it provides a comprehensive semantic cognition of surrounding environments. However, prevalent approaches primarily rely on extensive labeled data and computationally intensive voxel-based modeling, restricting the scalability and generalizability of 3D representation learning. In this paper, we introduce GaussTR, a novel Gaussian Transformer that leverages alignment with foundation models to advance self-supervised 3D spatial understanding. GaussTR adopts a Transformer architecture to predict sparse sets of 3D Gaussians that represent scenes in a feed-forward manner. Through aligning rendered Gaussian features with diverse knowledge from pre-trained foundation models, GaussTR facilitates the learning of versatile 3D representations and enables open-vocabulary occupancy prediction without explicit annotations. Empirical evaluations on the Occ3D-nuScenes dataset showcase GaussTR's state-of-the-art zero-shot performance, achieving 11.70 mIoU while reducing training duration by approximately 50%. These experimental results highlight the significant potential of GaussTR for scalable and holistic 3D spatial understanding, with promising implications for autonomous driving and embodied agents. Code is available at https://github.com/hustvl/GaussTR.

Accurate uncertainty estimates are essential for deploying deep object detectors in safety-critical systems. The development and evaluation of probabilistic object detectors have been hindered by shortcomings in existing performance measures, which tend to involve arbitrary thresholds or limit the detector's choice of distributions. In this work, we propose to view object detection as a set prediction task where detectors predict the distribution over the set of objects. Using the negative log-likelihood for random finite sets, we present a proper scoring rule for evaluating and training probabilistic object detectors. The proposed method can be applied to existing probabilistic detectors, is free from thresholds, and enables fair comparison between architectures. Three different types of detectors are evaluated on the COCO dataset. Our results indicate that the training of existing detectors is optimized toward non-probabilistic metrics. We hope to encourage the development of new object detectors that can accurately estimate their own uncertainty. Code available at https://github.com/georghess/pmb-nll.

The aim of this paper is to present an elementary computable theory of probability, random variables and stochastic processes. The probability theory is baed on existing approaches using valuations and lower integrals. Various approaches to random variables are discussed, including the approach based on completions in a Polish space. We apply the theory to the study of stochastic dynamical systems in discrete-time, and give a brief exposition of the Wiener process as a foundation for stochastic differential equations. The theory is based within the framework of type-two effectivity, so has an explicit direct link with Turing computation, and is expressed in a system of computable types and operations, so has a clean mathematical description.

Probabilistic forecasting is crucial to decision-making under uncertainty about future weather. The dominant approach is to use an ensemble of forecasts to represent and quantify uncertainty in operational numerical weather prediction. However, generating ensembles is computationally costly. In this paper, we propose to generate ensemble forecasts at scale by leveraging recent advances in generative artificial intelligence. Our approach learns a data-driven probabilistic diffusion model from the 5-member ensemble GEFS reforecast dataset. The model can then be sampled efficiently to produce realistic weather forecasts, conditioned on a few members of the operational GEFS forecasting system. The generated ensembles have similar predictive skill as the full GEFS 31-member ensemble, evaluated against ERA5 reanalysis, and emulate well the statistics of large physics-based ensembles. We also apply the same methodology to developing a diffusion model for generative post-processing: the model directly learns to correct biases present in the emulated forecasting system by leveraging reanalysis data as labels during training. Ensembles from this generative post-processing model show greater reliability and accuracy, particularly in extreme event classification. In general, they are more reliable and forecast the probability of extreme weather more accurately than the GEFS operational ensemble. Our models achieve these results at less than 1/10th of the computational cost incurred by the operational GEFS system.

Multivariate probabilistic time series forecasts are commonly evaluated via proper scoring rules, i.e., functions that are minimal in expectation for the ground-truth distribution. However, this property is not sufficient to guarantee good discrimination in the non-asymptotic regime. In this paper, we provide the first systematic finite-sample study of proper scoring rules for time-series forecasting evaluation. Through a power analysis, we identify the "region of reliability" of a scoring rule, i.e., the set of practical conditions where it can be relied on to identify forecasting errors. We carry out our analysis on a comprehensive synthetic benchmark, specifically designed to test several key discrepancies between ground-truth and forecast distributions, and we gauge the generalizability of our findings to real-world tasks with an application to an electricity production problem. Our results reveal critical shortcomings in the evaluation of multivariate probabilistic forecasts as commonly performed in the literature.

We define a probabilistic programming language for Gaussian random variables with a first-class exact conditioning construct. We give operational, denotational and equational semantics for this language, establishing convenient properties like exchangeability of conditions. Conditioning on equality of continuous random variables is nontrivial, as the exact observation may have probability zero; this is Borel's paradox. Using categorical formulations of conditional probability, we show that the good properties of our language are not particular to Gaussians, but can be derived from universal properties, thus generalizing to wider settings. We define the Cond construction, which internalizes conditioning as a morphism, providing general compositional semantics for probabilistic programming with exact conditioning.

Vision-centric occupancy networks, which represent the surrounding environment with uniform voxels with semantics, have become a new trend for safe driving of camera-only autonomous driving perception systems, as they are able to detect obstacles regardless of their shape and occlusion. Modern occupancy networks mainly focus on reconstructing visible voxels from object surfaces with voxel-wise semantic prediction. Usually, they suffer from inconsistent predictions of one object and mixed predictions for adjacent objects. These confusions may harm the safety of downstream planning modules. To this end, we investigate panoptic segmentation on 3D voxel scenarios and propose an instance-aware occupancy network, PanoSSC. We predict foreground objects and backgrounds separately and merge both in post-processing. For foreground instance grouping, we propose a novel 3D instance mask decoder that can efficiently extract individual objects. we unify geometric reconstruction, 3D semantic segmentation, and 3D instance segmentation into PanoSSC framework and propose new metrics for evaluating panoptic voxels. Extensive experiments show that our method achieves competitive results on SemanticKITTI semantic scene completion benchmark.

Monocular 3D occupancy prediction, aiming to predict the occupancy and semantics within interesting regions of 3D scenes from only 2D images, has garnered increasing attention recently for its vital role in 3D scene understanding. Predicting the 3D occupancy of large-scale outdoor scenes from 2D images is ill-posed and resource-intensive. In this paper, we present DGOcc, a Depth-aware Global query-based network for monocular 3D Occupancy prediction. We first explore prior depth maps to extract depth context features that provide explicit geometric information for the occupancy network. Then, in order to fully exploit the depth context features, we propose a Global Query-based (GQ) Module. The cooperation of attention mechanisms and scale-aware operations facilitates the feature interaction between images and 3D voxels. Moreover, a Hierarchical Supervision Strategy (HSS) is designed to avoid upsampling the high-dimension 3D voxel features to full resolution, which mitigates GPU memory utilization and time cost. Extensive experiments on SemanticKITTI and SSCBench-KITTI-360 datasets demonstrate that the proposed method achieves the best performance on monocular semantic occupancy prediction while reducing GPU and time overhead.

3D semantic occupancy prediction networks have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in reconstructing the geometric and semantic structure of 3D scenes, providing crucial information for robot navigation and autonomous driving systems. However, due to their large overhead from dense network structure designs, existing networks face challenges balancing accuracy and latency. In this paper, we introduce OccRWKV, an efficient semantic occupancy network inspired by Receptance Weighted Key Value (RWKV). OccRWKV separates semantics, occupancy prediction, and feature fusion into distinct branches, each incorporating Sem-RWKV and Geo-RWKV blocks. These blocks are designed to capture long-range dependencies, enabling the network to learn domain-specific representation (i.e., semantics and geometry), which enhances prediction accuracy. Leveraging the sparse nature of real-world 3D occupancy, we reduce computational overhead by projecting features into the bird's-eye view (BEV) space and propose a BEV-RWKV block for efficient feature enhancement and fusion. This enables real-time inference at 22.2 FPS without compromising performance. Experiments demonstrate that OccRWKV outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on the SemanticKITTI dataset, achieving a mIoU of 25.1 while being 20 times faster than the best baseline, Co-Occ, making it suitable for real-time deployment on robots to enhance autonomous navigation efficiency. Code and video are available on our project page: https://jmwang0117.github.io/OccRWKV/.

Generating functions, which are widely used in combinatorics and probability theory, encode function values into the coefficients of a polynomial. In this paper, we explore their use as a tractable probabilistic model, and propose probabilistic generating circuits (PGCs) for their efficient representation. PGCs are strictly more expressive efficient than many existing tractable probabilistic models, including determinantal point processes (DPPs), probabilistic circuits (PCs) such as sum-product networks, and tractable graphical models. We contend that PGCs are not just a theoretical framework that unifies vastly different existing models, but also show great potential in modeling realistic data. We exhibit a simple class of PGCs that are not trivially subsumed by simple combinations of PCs and DPPs, and obtain competitive performance on a suite of density estimation benchmarks. We also highlight PGCs' connection to the theory of strongly Rayleigh distributions.

Mehta and Panigrahi (2012) proposed Online Matching with Stochastic Rewards, which generalizes the Online Bipartite Matching problem of Karp, Vazirani, and Vazirani (1990) by associating the edges with success probabilities. This new feature captures the pay-per-click model in online advertising. Recently, Huang and Zhang (2020) studied this problem under the online primal dual framework using the Configuration Linear Program (LP), and got the best known competitive ratios of the Stochastic Balance algorithm. Their work suggests that the more expressive Configuration LP is more suitable for this problem than the Matching LP. This paper advances the theory of Configuration LP in two directions. Our technical contribution includes a characterization of the joint matching outcome of an offline vertex and all its neighbors. This characterization may be of independent interest, and is aligned with the spirit of Configuration LP. By contrast, previous analyses of Ranking generally focus on only one neighbor. Second, we designed a Stochastic Configuration LP that captures a stochastic benchmark proposed by Goyal and Udwani (2020), who used a Path-based LP. The Stochastic Configuration LP is smaller and simpler than the Path-based LP. Moreover, using the new LP we improved the competitive ratio of Stochastic Balance from 0.596 to 0.611 when the success probabilities are infinitesimal, and to 0.613 when the success probabilities are further equal.

Anomaly detection methods identify examples that do not follow the expected behaviour, typically in an unsupervised fashion, by assigning real-valued anomaly scores to the examples based on various heuristics. These scores need to be transformed into actual predictions by thresholding, so that the proportion of examples marked as anomalies equals the expected proportion of anomalies, called contamination factor. Unfortunately, there are no good methods for estimating the contamination factor itself. We address this need from a Bayesian perspective, introducing a method for estimating the posterior distribution of the contamination factor of a given unlabeled dataset. We leverage on outputs of several anomaly detectors as a representation that already captures the basic notion of anomalousness and estimate the contamination using a specific mixture formulation. Empirically on 22 datasets, we show that the estimated distribution is well-calibrated and that setting the threshold using the posterior mean improves the anomaly detectors' performance over several alternative methods. All code is publicly available for full reproducibility.

Large language models perform near-Bayesian inference yet violate permutation invariance on exchangeable data. We resolve this by showing transformers minimize expected conditional description length (cross-entropy) over orderings, E_pi[ell(Y mid Gamma_pi(X))], which admits a Kolmogorov-complexity interpretation up to additive constants, rather than the permutation-invariant description length ell(Y mid X). This makes them Bayesian in expectation, not in realization. We derive (i) a Quantified Martingale Violation bound showing order-induced deviations scale as O(log n) with constants; (ii) the Expectation-level Decompression Law linking information budgets to reliability for Bernoulli predicates; and (iii) deployable planners (B2T/RoH/ISR) for answer/abstain decisions. Empirically, permutation dispersion follows a+bln n (Qwen2-7B b approx 0.377, Llama-3.1-8B b approx 0.147); permutation mixtures improve ground-truth likelihood/accuracy; and randomized dose-response shows hallucinations drop by sim 0.13 per additional nat. A pre-specified audit with a fixed ISR=1.0 achieves near-0\% hallucinations via calibrated refusal at 24\% abstention. The framework turns hallucinations into predictable compression failures and enables principled information budgeting.

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.