Daily Papers

Next token prediction paradigm has been prevailing for autoregressive models in the era of LLMs. The current default sampling choice for popular LLMs is temperature scaling together with nucleus sampling to balance diversity and coherence. Nevertheless, such approach leads to inferior performance in various NLP tasks when the model is not certain about testing questions. To this end, we propose a brand new training-free decoding strategy, dubbed as Cautious Next Token Prediction (CNTP). In the decoding process, if the model has comparatively high prediction entropy at a certain step, we sample multiple trials starting from the step independently and stop when encountering any punctuation. Then we select the trial with the lowest perplexity score viewed as the most probable and reliable trial path given the model's capacity. The trial number is negatively correlated with the prediction confidence, i.e., the less confident the model is, the more trials it should sample. This is consistent with human beings' behaviour: when feeling uncertain or unconfident, one tends to think more creatively, exploring multiple thinking paths, to cautiously select the path one feels most confident about. Extensive experiments on both LLMs and MLLMs show that our proposed CNTP approach outperforms existing standard decoding strategies consistently by a clear margin. Moreover, the integration of CNTP with self consistency can further improve over vanilla self consistency. We believe our proposed CNTP has the potential to become one of the default choices for LLM decoding. Code is available at https://github.com/wyzjack/CNTP.

Large pre-trained language models achieve impressive results across many tasks. However, recent works point out that pre-trained language models may memorize a considerable fraction of their training data, leading to the privacy risk of information leakage. In this paper, we propose a method named Ethicist for targeted training data extraction through loss smoothed soft prompting and calibrated confidence estimation, investigating how to recover the suffix in the training data when given a prefix. To elicit memorization in the attacked model, we tune soft prompt embeddings while keeping the model fixed. We further propose a smoothing loss that smooths the loss distribution of the suffix tokens to make it easier to sample the correct suffix. In order to select the most probable suffix from a collection of sampled suffixes and estimate the prediction confidence, we propose a calibrated confidence estimation method, which normalizes the confidence of the generated suffixes with a local estimation. We show that Ethicist significantly improves the extraction performance on a recently proposed public benchmark. We also investigate several factors influencing the data extraction performance, including decoding strategy, model scale, prefix length, and suffix length. Our code is available at https://github.com/thu-coai/Targeted-Data-Extraction.

Self-training has greatly facilitated domain adaptive semantic segmentation, which iteratively generates pseudo labels on unlabeled target data and retrains the network. However, realistic segmentation datasets are highly imbalanced, pseudo labels are typically biased to the majority classes and basically noisy, leading to an error-prone and suboptimal model. In this paper, we propose a simple region-based active learning approach for semantic segmentation under a domain shift, aiming to automatically query a small partition of image regions to be labeled while maximizing segmentation performance. Our algorithm, Region Impurity and Prediction Uncertainty (RIPU), introduces a new acquisition strategy characterizing the spatial adjacency of image regions along with the prediction confidence. We show that the proposed region-based selection strategy makes more efficient use of a limited budget than image-based or point-based counterparts. Further, we enforce local prediction consistency between a pixel and its nearest neighbors on a source image. Alongside, we develop a negative learning loss to make the features more discriminative. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method only requires very few annotations to almost reach the supervised performance and substantially outperforms state-of-the-art methods. The code is available at https://github.com/BIT-DA/RIPU.

Unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) seeks to bridge the domain gap between the target and source using unlabeled target data. Source-free UDA removes the requirement for labeled source data at the target to preserve data privacy and storage. However, work on source-free UDA assumes knowledge of domain gap distribution, and hence is limited to either target-aware or classification task. To overcome it, we propose TASFAR, a novel target-agnostic source-free domain adaptation approach for regression tasks. Using prediction confidence, TASFAR estimates a label density map as the target label distribution, which is then used to calibrate the source model on the target domain. We have conducted extensive experiments on four regression tasks with various domain gaps, namely, pedestrian dead reckoning for different users, image-based people counting in different scenes, housing-price prediction at different districts, and taxi-trip duration prediction from different departure points. TASFAR is shown to substantially outperform the state-of-the-art source-free UDA approaches by averagely reducing 22% errors for the four tasks and achieve notably comparable accuracy as source-based UDA without using source data.

Large Language and Vision-Language Models (LLMs/VLMs) are increasingly used in safety-critical applications, yet their opaque decision-making complicates risk assessment and reliability. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) helps assess prediction confidence and enables abstention when uncertainty is high. Conformal prediction (CP), a leading UQ method, provides statistical guarantees but relies on static thresholds, which fail to adapt to task complexity and evolving data distributions, leading to suboptimal trade-offs in accuracy, coverage, and informativeness. To address this, we propose learnable conformal abstention, integrating reinforcement learning (RL) with CP to optimize abstention thresholds dynamically. By treating CP thresholds as adaptive actions, our approach balances multiple objectives, minimizing prediction set size while maintaining reliable coverage. Extensive evaluations across diverse LLM/VLM benchmarks show our method outperforms Least Ambiguous Classifiers (LAC) and Adaptive Prediction Sets (APS), improving accuracy by up to 3.2%, boosting AUROC for hallucination detection by 22.19%, enhancing uncertainty-guided selective generation (AUARC) by 21.17%, and reducing calibration error by 70%-85%. These improvements hold across multiple models and datasets while consistently meeting the 90% coverage target, establishing our approach as a more effective and flexible solution for reliable decision-making in safety-critical applications. The code is available at: {https://github.com/sinatayebati/vlm-uncertainty}.

Emerging 3D geometric foundation models, such as DUSt3R, offer a promising approach for in-the-wild 3D vision tasks. However, due to the high-dimensional nature of the problem space and scarcity of high-quality 3D data, these pre-trained models still struggle to generalize to many challenging circumstances, such as limited view overlap or low lighting. To address this, we propose LoRA3D, an efficient self-calibration pipeline to specialize the pre-trained models to target scenes using their own multi-view predictions. Taking sparse RGB images as input, we leverage robust optimization techniques to refine multi-view predictions and align them into a global coordinate frame. In particular, we incorporate prediction confidence into the geometric optimization process, automatically re-weighting the confidence to better reflect point estimation accuracy. We use the calibrated confidence to generate high-quality pseudo labels for the calibrating views and use low-rank adaptation (LoRA) to fine-tune the models on the pseudo-labeled data. Our method does not require any external priors or manual labels. It completes the self-calibration process on a single standard GPU within just 5 minutes. Each low-rank adapter requires only 18MB of storage. We evaluated our method on more than 160 scenes from the Replica, TUM and Waymo Open datasets, achieving up to 88% performance improvement on 3D reconstruction, multi-view pose estimation and novel-view rendering.

Conventional multi-label classification (MLC) methods assume that all samples are fully labeled and identically distributed. Unfortunately, this assumption is unrealistic in large-scale MLC data that has long-tailed (LT) distribution and partial labels (PL). To address the problem, we introduce a novel task, Partial labeling and Long-Tailed Multi-Label Classification (PLT-MLC), to jointly consider the above two imperfect learning environments. Not surprisingly, we find that most LT-MLC and PL-MLC approaches fail to solve the PLT-MLC, resulting in significant performance degradation on the two proposed PLT-MLC benchmarks. Therefore, we propose an end-to-end learning framework: COrrection rightarrow ModificatIon rightarrow balanCe, abbreviated as \method{}. Our bootstrapping philosophy is to simultaneously correct the missing labels (Correction) with convinced prediction confidence over a class-aware threshold and to learn from these recall labels during training. We next propose a novel multi-focal modifier loss that simultaneously addresses head-tail imbalance and positive-negative imbalance to adaptively modify the attention to different samples (Modification) under the LT class distribution. In addition, we develop a balanced training strategy by distilling the model's learning effect from head and tail samples, and thus design a balanced classifier (Balance) conditioned on the head and tail learning effect to maintain stable performance for all samples. Our experimental study shows that the proposed significantly outperforms general MLC, LT-MLC and PL-MLC methods in terms of effectiveness and robustness on our newly created PLT-MLC datasets.

Video-based Unsupervised Domain Adaptation (VUDA) methods improve the robustness of video models, enabling them to be applied to action recognition tasks across different environments. However, these methods require constant access to source data during the adaptation process. Yet in many real-world applications, subjects and scenes in the source video domain should be irrelevant to those in the target video domain. With the increasing emphasis on data privacy, such methods that require source data access would raise serious privacy issues. Therefore, to cope with such concern, a more practical domain adaptation scenario is formulated as the Source-Free Video-based Domain Adaptation (SFVDA). Though there are a few methods for Source-Free Domain Adaptation (SFDA) on image data, these methods yield degenerating performance in SFVDA due to the multi-modality nature of videos, with the existence of additional temporal features. In this paper, we propose a novel Attentive Temporal Consistent Network (ATCoN) to address SFVDA by learning temporal consistency, guaranteed by two novel consistency objectives, namely feature consistency and source prediction consistency, performed across local temporal features. ATCoN further constructs effective overall temporal features by attending to local temporal features based on prediction confidence. Empirical results demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of ATCoN across various cross-domain action recognition benchmarks.

Incentivizing the reasoning ability of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) is essential for medical applications to transparently analyze medical scans and provide reliable diagnosis. However, existing medical MLLMs rely solely on internal knowledge during reasoning, leading to hallucinated reasoning and factual inaccuracies when encountering cases beyond their training scope. Although recent Agentic Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) methods elicit the medical model's proactive retrieval ability during reasoning, they are confined to unimodal LLMs, neglecting the crucial visual information during reasoning and retrieval. Consequently, we propose the first Multimodal Medical Reasoning-with-Retrieval framework, Med-RwR, which actively retrieves external knowledge by querying observed symptoms or domain-specific medical concepts during reasoning. Specifically, we design a two-stage reinforcement learning strategy with tailored rewards that stimulate the model to leverage both visual diagnostic findings and textual clinical information for effective retrieval. Building on this foundation, we further propose a Confidence-Driven Image Re-retrieval (CDIR) method for test-time scaling when low prediction confidence is detected. Evaluation on various public medical benchmarks demonstrates Med-RwR's significant improvements over baseline models, proving the effectiveness of enhancing reasoning capabilities with external knowledge integration. Furthermore, Med-RwR demonstrates remarkable generalizability to unfamiliar domains, evidenced by 8.8% performance gain on our proposed EchoCardiography Benchmark (ECBench), despite the scarcity of echocardiography data in the training corpus. Our data, model, and codes will be made publicly available at https://github.com/xmed-lab/Med-RwR.

Early exits (EEs) offer a promising approach to reducing computational costs and latency by dynamically terminating inference once a satisfactory prediction confidence on a data sample is achieved. Although many works integrate EEs into encoder-only Transformers, their application to decoder-only architectures and, more importantly, Mamba models, a novel family of state-space architectures in the LLM realm, remains insufficiently explored. This work introduces DYNAMAX, the first framework to exploit the unique properties of Mamba architectures for early exit mechanisms. We not only integrate EEs into Mamba but also repurpose Mamba as an efficient EE classifier for both Mamba-based and transformer-based LLMs, showcasing its versatility. Our experiments employ the Mistral 7B transformer compared to the Codestral 7B Mamba model, using data sets such as TruthfulQA, CoQA, and TriviaQA to evaluate computational savings, accuracy, and consistency. The results highlight the adaptability of Mamba as a powerful EE classifier and its efficiency in balancing computational cost and performance quality across NLP tasks. By leveraging Mamba's inherent design for dynamic processing, we open pathways for scalable and efficient inference in embedded applications and resource-constrained environments. This study underscores the transformative potential of Mamba in redefining dynamic computing paradigms for LLMs.

Deep clustering has exhibited remarkable performance; however, the overconfidence problem, i.e., the estimated confidence for a sample belonging to a particular cluster greatly exceeds its actual prediction accuracy, has been overlooked in prior research. To tackle this critical issue, we pioneer the development of a calibrated deep clustering framework. Specifically, we propose a novel dual-head deep clustering pipeline that can effectively calibrate the estimated confidence and the actual accuracy. The calibration head adjusts the overconfident predictions of the clustering head using regularization methods, generating prediction confidence and pseudo-labels that match the model learning status. This calibration process also guides the clustering head in dynamically selecting reliable high-confidence samples for training. Additionally, we introduce an effective network initialization strategy that enhances both training speed and network robustness. Extensive experiments demonstrate the proposed calibrated deep clustering framework not only surpasses state-of-the-art deep clustering methods by approximately 10 times in terms of expected calibration error but also significantly outperforms them in terms of clustering accuracy.

When language models (LMs) are trained to forget (or "unlearn'') a skill, how precisely does their behavior change? We study the behavior of transformer LMs in which tasks have been forgotten via fine-tuning on randomized labels. Such LMs learn to generate near-random predictions for individual examples in the "training'' set used for forgetting. Across tasks, however, LMs exhibit extreme variability in whether LM predictions change on examples outside the training set. In some tasks (like entailment classification), forgetting generalizes robustly, and causes models to produce uninformative predictions on new task instances; in other tasks (like physical commonsense reasoning and scientific question answering) forgetting affects only the training examples, and models continue to perform the "forgotten'' task accurately even for examples very similar to those that appeared in the training set. Dataset difficulty is not predictive of whether a behavior can be forgotten; instead, generalization in forgetting is (weakly) predicted by the confidence of LMs' initial task predictions and the variability of LM representations of training data, with low confidence and low variability both associated with greater generalization. Perhaps most surprisingly, random-label forgetting appears to be somewhat insensitive to the contents of the training set: for example, models trained on science questions with random labels continue to answer other science questions accurately, but begin to produce random labels on entailment classification tasks. Finally, we show that even generalizable forgetting is shallow: linear probes trained on LMs' representations can still perform tasks reliably after forgetting. Our results highlight the difficulty and unpredictability of performing targeted skill removal from models via fine-tuning.

Large language models (LLMs) have become increasingly prevalent in our daily lives, leading to an expectation for LLMs to be trustworthy -- - both accurate and well-calibrated (the prediction confidence should align with its ground truth correctness likelihood). Nowadays, fine-tuning has become the most popular method for adapting a model to practical usage by significantly increasing accuracy on downstream tasks. Despite the great accuracy it achieves, we found fine-tuning is still far away from satisfactory trustworthiness due to "tuning-induced mis-calibration". In this paper, we delve deeply into why and how mis-calibration exists in fine-tuned models, and how distillation can alleviate the issue. Then we further propose a brand new method named Efficient Trustworthy Distillation (FIRST), which utilizes a small portion of teacher's knowledge to obtain a reliable language model in a cost-efficient way. Specifically, we identify the "concentrated knowledge" phenomenon during distillation, which can significantly reduce the computational burden. Then we apply a "trustworthy maximization" process to optimize the utilization of this small portion of concentrated knowledge before transferring it to the student. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, where better accuracy (+2.3%) and less mis-calibration (-10%) are achieved on average across both in-domain and out-of-domain scenarios, indicating better trustworthiness.

We study the text generation task under the approach of pre-trained language models (PLMs). Typically, an auto-regressive (AR) method is adopted for generating texts in a token-by-token manner. Despite many advantages of AR generation, it usually suffers from inefficient inference. Therefore, non-autoregressive (NAR) models are proposed to generate all target tokens simultaneously. However, NAR models usually generate texts of lower quality due to the absence of token dependency in the output text. In this paper, we propose ELMER: an efficient and effective PLM for NAR text generation to explicitly model the token dependency during NAR generation. By leveraging the early exit technique, ELMER enables the token generations at different layers, according to their prediction confidence (a more confident token will exit at a lower layer). Besides, we propose a novel pre-training objective, Layer Permutation Language Modeling, to pre-train ELMER by permuting the exit layer for each token in sequences. Experiments on three text generation tasks show that ELMER significantly outperforms NAR models and further narrows the performance gap with AR PLMs (\eg ELMER (29.92) vs BART (30.61) ROUGE-L in XSUM) while achieving over 10 times inference speedup.

The recent explosion of question answering (QA) datasets and models has increased the interest in the generalization of models across multiple domains and formats by either training on multiple datasets or by combining multiple models. Despite the promising results of multi-dataset models, some domains or QA formats may require specific architectures, and thus the adaptability of these models might be limited. In addition, current approaches for combining models disregard cues such as question-answer compatibility. In this work, we propose to combine expert agents with a novel, flexible, and training-efficient architecture that considers questions, answer predictions, and answer-prediction confidence scores to select the best answer among a list of answer candidates. Through quantitative and qualitative experiments we show that our model i) creates a collaboration between agents that outperforms previous multi-agent and multi-dataset approaches in both in-domain and out-of-domain scenarios, ii) is highly data-efficient to train, and iii) can be adapted to any QA format. We release our code and a dataset of answer predictions from expert agents for 16 QA datasets to foster future developments of multi-agent systems on https://github.com/UKPLab/MetaQA.

Many real-world scenarios in which DNN-based recognition systems are deployed have inherently fine-grained attributes (e.g., bird-species recognition, medical image classification). In addition to achieving reliable accuracy, a critical subtask for these models is to detect Out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. Given the nature of the deployment environment, one may expect such OOD inputs to also be fine-grained w.r.t. the known classes (e.g., a novel bird species), which are thus extremely difficult to identify. Unfortunately, OOD detection in fine-grained scenarios remains largely underexplored. In this work, we aim to fill this gap by first carefully constructing four large-scale fine-grained test environments, in which existing methods are shown to have difficulties. Particularly, we find that even explicitly incorporating a diverse set of auxiliary outlier data during training does not provide sufficient coverage over the broad region where fine-grained OOD samples locate. We then propose Mixture Outlier Exposure (MixOE), which mixes ID data and training outliers to expand the coverage of different OOD granularities, and trains the model such that the prediction confidence linearly decays as the input transitions from ID to OOD. Extensive experiments and analyses demonstrate the effectiveness of MixOE for building up OOD detector in fine-grained environments. The code is available at https://github.com/zjysteven/MixOE.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable reasoning capabilities through test-time scaling approaches, particularly when fine-tuned with chain-of-thought (CoT) data distilled from more powerful large reasoning models (LRMs). However, these reasoning chains often contain verbose elements that mirror human problem-solving, categorized as progressive reasoning (the essential solution development path) and functional elements (verification processes, alternative solution approaches, and error corrections). While progressive reasoning is crucial, the functional elements significantly increase computational demands during test-time inference. We introduce PIR (Perplexity-based Importance Refinement), a principled framework that quantitatively evaluates the importance of each reasoning step based on its impact on answer prediction confidence. PIR systematically identifies and selectively prunes only low-importance functional steps while preserving progressive reasoning components, creating optimized training data that maintains the integrity of the core solution path while reducing verbosity. Models fine-tuned on PIR-optimized data exhibit superior test-time scaling properties, generating more concise reasoning chains while achieving improved accuracy (+0.9\% to +6.6\%) with significantly reduced token usage (-3\% to -41\%) across challenging reasoning benchmarks (AIME, AMC, and GPQA Diamond). Our approach demonstrates strong generalizability across different model sizes, data sources, and token budgets, offering a practical solution for deploying reasoning-capable LLMs in scenarios where efficient test-time scaling, response time, and computational efficiency are valuable constraints.

Multi-subject personalized image generation aims to synthesize customized images containing multiple specified subjects without requiring test-time optimization. However, achieving fine-grained independent control over multiple subjects remains challenging due to difficulties in preserving subject fidelity and preventing cross-subject attribute leakage. We present FocusDPO, a framework that adaptively identifies focus regions based on dynamic semantic correspondence and supervision image complexity. During training, our method progressively adjusts these focal areas across noise timesteps, implementing a weighted strategy that rewards information-rich patches while penalizing regions with low prediction confidence. The framework dynamically adjusts focus allocation during the DPO process according to the semantic complexity of reference images and establishes robust correspondence mappings between generated and reference subjects. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method substantially enhances the performance of existing pre-trained personalized generation models, achieving state-of-the-art results on both single-subject and multi-subject personalized image synthesis benchmarks. Our method effectively mitigates attribute leakage while preserving superior subject fidelity across diverse generation scenarios, advancing the frontier of controllable multi-subject image synthesis.

Chinese Spelling Correction (CSC) commonly lacks large-scale high-quality corpora, due to the labor-intensive labeling of spelling errors in real-life human writing or typing scenarios. Two data augmentation methods are widely adopted: (1) Random Replacement with the guidance of confusion sets and (2) OCR/ASR-based Generation that simulates character misusing. However, both methods inevitably introduce noisy data (e.g., false spelling errors), potentially leading to over-correction. By carefully analyzing the two types of corpora, we find that though the latter achieves more robust generalization performance, the former yields better-calibrated CSC models. We then provide a theoretical analysis of this empirical observation, based on which a corpus refining strategy is proposed. Specifically, OCR/ASR-based data samples are fed into a well-calibrated CSC model trained on random replacement-based corpora and then filtered based on prediction confidence. By learning a simple BERT-based model on the refined OCR/ASR-based corpus, we set up impressive state-of-the-art performance on three widely-used benchmarks, while significantly alleviating over-correction (e.g., lowering false positive predictions).

This paper investigates how Transformer language models (LMs) fine-tuned for acceptability classification capture linguistic features. Our approach uses the best practices of topological data analysis (TDA) in NLP: we construct directed attention graphs from attention matrices, derive topological features from them, and feed them to linear classifiers. We introduce two novel features, chordality, and the matching number, and show that TDA-based classifiers outperform fine-tuning baselines. We experiment with two datasets, CoLA and RuCoLA in English and Russian, typologically different languages. On top of that, we propose several black-box introspection techniques aimed at detecting changes in the attention mode of the LMs during fine-tuning, defining the LM's prediction confidences, and associating individual heads with fine-grained grammar phenomena. Our results contribute to understanding the behavior of monolingual LMs in the acceptability classification task, provide insights into the functional roles of attention heads, and highlight the advantages of TDA-based approaches for analyzing LMs. We release the code and the experimental results for further uptake.

A key function of auditory cognition is the association of characteristic sounds with their corresponding semantics over time. Humans attempting to discriminate between fine-grained audio categories, often replay the same discriminative sounds to increase their prediction confidence. We propose an end-to-end attention-based architecture that through selective repetition attends over the most discriminative sounds across the audio sequence. Our model initially uses the full audio sequence and iteratively refines the temporal segments replayed based on slot attention. At each playback, the selected segments are replayed using a smaller hop length which represents higher resolution features within these segments. We show that our method can consistently achieve state-of-the-art performance across three audio-classification benchmarks: AudioSet, VGG-Sound, and EPIC-KITCHENS-100.

Despite the success of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) in many academic benchmarks for computer vision tasks, their application in the real-world is still facing fundamental challenges. One of these open problems is the inherent lack of robustness, unveiled by the striking effectiveness of adversarial attacks. Current attack methods are able to manipulate the network's prediction by adding specific but small amounts of noise to the input. In turn, adversarial training (AT) aims to achieve robustness against such attacks and ideally a better model generalization ability by including adversarial samples in the trainingset. However, an in-depth analysis of the resulting robust models beyond adversarial robustness is still pending. In this paper, we empirically analyze a variety of adversarially trained models that achieve high robust accuracies when facing state-of-the-art attacks and we show that AT has an interesting side-effect: it leads to models that are significantly less overconfident with their decisions, even on clean data than non-robust models. Further, our analysis of robust models shows that not only AT but also the model's building blocks (like activation functions and pooling) have a strong influence on the models' prediction confidences. Data & Project website: https://github.com/GeJulia/robustness_confidences_evaluation

This paper aims to develop a novel cost-effective framework for face identification, which progressively maintains a batch of classifiers with the increasing face images of different individuals. By naturally combining two recently rising techniques: active learning (AL) and self-paced learning (SPL), our framework is capable of automatically annotating new instances and incorporating them into training under weak expert re-certification. We first initialize the classifier using a few annotated samples for each individual, and extract image features using the convolutional neural nets. Then, a number of candidates are selected from the unannotated samples for classifier updating, in which we apply the current classifiers ranking the samples by the prediction confidence. In particular, our approach utilizes the high-confidence and low-confidence samples in the self-paced and the active user-query way, respectively. The neural nets are later fine-tuned based on the updated classifiers. Such heuristic implementation is formulated as solving a concise active SPL optimization problem, which also advances the SPL development by supplementing a rational dynamic curriculum constraint. The new model finely accords with the "instructor-student-collaborative" learning mode in human education. The advantages of this proposed framework are two-folds: i) The required number of annotated samples is significantly decreased while the comparable performance is guaranteed. A dramatic reduction of user effort is also achieved over other state-of-the-art active learning techniques. ii) The mixture of SPL and AL effectively improves not only the classifier accuracy compared to existing AL/SPL methods but also the robustness against noisy data. We evaluate our framework on two challenging datasets, and demonstrate very promising results. (http://hcp.sysu.edu.cn/projects/aspl/)

In the video-language domain, recent works in leveraging zero-shot Large Language Model-based reasoning for video understanding have become competitive challengers to previous end-to-end models. However, long video understanding presents unique challenges due to the complexity of reasoning over extended timespans, even for zero-shot LLM-based approaches. The challenge of information redundancy in long videos prompts the question of what specific information is essential for large language models (LLMs) and how to leverage them for complex spatial-temporal reasoning in long-form video analysis. We propose a framework VideoINSTA, i.e. INformative Spatial-TemporAl Reasoning for zero-shot long-form video understanding. VideoINSTA contributes (1) a zero-shot framework for long video understanding using LLMs; (2) an event-based temporal reasoning and content-based spatial reasoning approach for LLMs to reason over spatial-temporal information in videos; (3) a self-reflective information reasoning scheme balancing temporal factors based on information sufficiency and prediction confidence. Our model significantly improves the state-of-the-art on three long video question-answering benchmarks: EgoSchema, NextQA, and IntentQA, and the open question answering dataset ActivityNetQA. The code is released here: https://github.com/mayhugotong/VideoINSTA.

This paper studies the curious phenomenon for machine learning models with Transformer architectures that their activation maps are sparse. By activation map we refer to the intermediate output of the multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) after a ReLU activation function, and by sparse we mean that on average very few entries (e.g., 3.0% for T5-Base and 6.3% for ViT-B16) are nonzero for each input to MLP. Moreover, larger Transformers with more layers and wider MLP hidden dimensions are sparser as measured by the percentage of nonzero entries. Through extensive experiments we demonstrate that the emergence of sparsity is a prevalent phenomenon that occurs for both natural language processing and vision tasks, on both training and evaluation data, for Transformers of various configurations, at layers of all depth levels, as well as for other architectures including MLP-mixers and 2-layer MLPs. We show that sparsity also emerges using training datasets with random labels, or with random inputs, or with infinite amount of data, demonstrating that sparsity is not a result of a specific family of datasets. We discuss how sparsity immediately implies a way to significantly reduce the FLOP count and improve efficiency for Transformers. Moreover, we demonstrate perhaps surprisingly that enforcing an even sparser activation via Top-k thresholding with a small value of k brings a collection of desired but missing properties for Transformers, namely less sensitivity to noisy training data, more robustness to input corruptions, and better calibration for their prediction confidence.

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in user-facing applications, building trust and maintaining safety by accurately quantifying a model's confidence in its prediction becomes even more important. However, finding effective ways to calibrate LLMs - especially when the only interface to the models is their generated text - remains a challenge. We propose APRICOT (auxiliary prediction of confidence targets): A method to set confidence targets and train an additional model that predicts an LLM's confidence based on its textual input and output alone. This approach has several advantages: It is conceptually simple, does not require access to the target model beyond its output, does not interfere with the language generation, and has a multitude of potential usages, for instance by verbalizing the predicted confidence or adjusting the given answer based on the confidence. We show how our approach performs competitively in terms of calibration error for white-box and black-box LLMs on closed-book question-answering to detect incorrect LLM answers.

Semi-supervised semantic segmentation (SSS) is an important task that utilizes both labeled and unlabeled data to reduce expenses on labeling training examples. However, the effectiveness of SSS algorithms is limited by the difficulty of fully exploiting the potential of unlabeled data. To address this, we propose a dual-level Siamese structure network (DSSN) for pixel-wise contrastive learning. By aligning positive pairs with a pixel-wise contrastive loss using strong augmented views in both low-level image space and high-level feature space, the proposed DSSN is designed to maximize the utilization of available unlabeled data. Additionally, we introduce a novel class-aware pseudo-label selection strategy for weak-to-strong supervision, which addresses the limitations of most existing methods that do not perform selection or apply a predefined threshold for all classes. Specifically, our strategy selects the top high-confidence prediction of the weak view for each class to generate pseudo labels that supervise the strong augmented views. This strategy is capable of taking into account the class imbalance and improving the performance of long-tailed classes. Our proposed method achieves state-of-the-art results on two datasets, PASCAL VOC 2012 and Cityscapes, outperforming other SSS algorithms by a significant margin.

Explainability and interpretability of AI models is an essential factor affecting the safety of AI. While various explainable AI (XAI) approaches aim at mitigating the lack of transparency in deep networks, the evidence of the effectiveness of these approaches in improving usability, trust, and understanding of AI systems are still missing. We evaluate multimodal explanations in the setting of a Visual Question Answering (VQA) task, by asking users to predict the response accuracy of a VQA agent with and without explanations. We use between-subjects and within-subjects experiments to probe explanation effectiveness in terms of improving user prediction accuracy, confidence, and reliance, among other factors. The results indicate that the explanations help improve human prediction accuracy, especially in trials when the VQA system's answer is inaccurate. Furthermore, we introduce active attention, a novel method for evaluating causal attentional effects through intervention by editing attention maps. User explanation ratings are strongly correlated with human prediction accuracy and suggest the efficacy of these explanations in human-machine AI collaboration tasks.

The hallucination of non-existent facts by LLMs is an important problem given its widespread adoption across various applications. Previous research addresses this problem by analyzing the internal parameterized knowledge boundaries to estimate confidence. However, these studies focus on the single-problem setting and have not explored the more challenging multi-problem setting, which requires accurately answering multiple questions simultaneously. We introduce a novel method for the multi-problem setting, Multiple Answers and Confidence Stepwise Tuning (MAC-Tuning), that separates the learning of answer prediction and confidence estimation during fine-tuning on instruction data. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms baselines by up to 25\% in average precision.

3D detection technology is widely used in the field of autonomous driving, with its application scenarios gradually expanding from enclosed highways to open conventional roads. For rare anomaly categories that appear on the road, 3D detection models trained on closed sets often misdetect or fail to detect anomaly objects. To address this risk, it is necessary to enhance the generalization ability of 3D detection models for targets of arbitrary shapes and to possess the capability to filter out anomalies. The generalization of 3D detection is limited by two factors: the coupled training of 2D and 3D, and the insufficient diversity in the scale distribution of training samples. This paper proposes a Stereo-based 3D Anomaly object Detection (S3AD) algorithm, which decouples the training strategy of 3D and 2D to release the generalization ability for arbitrary 3D foreground detection, and proposes an anomaly scoring algorithm based on foreground confidence prediction, achieving target-level anomaly scoring. In order to further verify and enhance the generalization of anomaly detection, we use a 3D rendering method to synthesize two augmented reality binocular stereo 3D detection datasets which named KITTI-AR. KITTI-AR extends upon KITTI by adding 97 new categories, totaling 6k pairs of stereo images. The KITTI-AR-ExD subset includes 39 common categories as extra training data to address the sparse sample distribution issue. Additionally, 58 rare categories form the KITTI-AR-OoD subset, which are not used in training to simulate zero-shot scenarios in real-world settings, solely for evaluating 3D anomaly detection. Finally, the performance of the algorithm and the dataset is verified in the experiments. (Code and dataset can be obtained at https://github.com/shiyi-mu/S3AD-Code).

Overfitting negatively impacts the generalization ability of deep neural networks (DNNs) in both natural and adversarial training. Existing methods struggle to consistently address different types of overfitting, typically designing strategies that focus separately on either natural or adversarial patterns. In this work, we adopt a unified perspective by solely focusing on natural patterns to explore different types of overfitting. Specifically, we examine the memorization effect in DNNs and reveal a shared behaviour termed over-memorization, which impairs their generalization capacity. This behaviour manifests as DNNs suddenly becoming high-confidence in predicting certain training patterns and retaining a persistent memory for them. Furthermore, when DNNs over-memorize an adversarial pattern, they tend to simultaneously exhibit high-confidence prediction for the corresponding natural pattern. These findings motivate us to holistically mitigate different types of overfitting by hindering the DNNs from over-memorization natural patterns. To this end, we propose a general framework, Distraction Over-Memorization (DOM), which explicitly prevents over-memorization by either removing or augmenting the high-confidence natural patterns. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method in mitigating overfitting across various training paradigms.

We tackle the data scarcity challenge in few-shot point cloud recognition of 3D objects by using a joint prediction from a conventional 3D model and a well-trained 2D model. Surprisingly, such an ensemble, though seems trivial, has hardly been shown effective in recent 2D-3D models. We find out the crux is the less effective training for the ''joint hard samples'', which have high confidence prediction on different wrong labels, implying that the 2D and 3D models do not collaborate well. To this end, our proposed invariant training strategy, called InvJoint, does not only emphasize the training more on the hard samples, but also seeks the invariance between the conflicting 2D and 3D ambiguous predictions. InvJoint can learn more collaborative 2D and 3D representations for better ensemble. Extensive experiments on 3D shape classification with widely adopted ModelNet10/40, ScanObjectNN and Toys4K, and shape retrieval with ShapeNet-Core validate the superiority of our InvJoint.

Domain generalization (DG) aims to tackle the distribution shift between training domains and unknown target domains. Generating new domains is one of the most effective approaches, yet its performance gain depends on the distribution discrepancy between the generated and target domains. Distributionally robust optimization is promising to tackle distribution discrepancy by exploring domains in an uncertainty set. However, the uncertainty set may be overwhelmingly large, leading to low-confidence prediction in DG. It is because a large uncertainty set could introduce domains containing semantically different factors from training domains. To address this issue, we propose to perform a moderately distributional exploration (MODE) for domain generalization. Specifically, MODE performs distribution exploration in an uncertainty subset that shares the same semantic factors with the training domains. We show that MODE can endow models with provable generalization performance on unknown target domains. The experimental results show that MODE achieves competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art baselines.

Model calibration aims to align confidence with prediction correctness. The Cross-Entropy (CE) loss is widely used for calibrator training, which enforces the model to increase confidence on the ground truth class. However, we find the CE loss has intrinsic limitations. For example, for a narrow misclassification, a calibrator trained by the CE loss often produces high confidence on the wrongly predicted class (e.g., a test sample is wrongly classified and its softmax score on the ground truth class is around 0.4), which is undesirable. In this paper, we propose a new post-hoc calibration objective derived from the aim of calibration. Intuitively, the proposed objective function asks that the calibrator decrease model confidence on wrongly predicted samples and increase confidence on correctly predicted samples. Because a sample itself has insufficient ability to indicate correctness, we use its transformed versions (e.g., rotated, greyscaled and color-jittered) during calibrator training. Trained on an in-distribution validation set and tested with isolated, individual test samples, our method achieves competitive calibration performance on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution test sets compared with the state of the art. Further, our analysis points out the difference between our method and commonly used objectives such as CE loss and mean square error loss, where the latters sometimes deviates from the calibration aim.

Forecasting is an important task in many domains, such as technology and economics. However existing forecasting benchmarks largely lack comprehensive confidence assessment, focus on limited question types, and often consist of artificial questions that do not align with real-world human forecasting needs. To address these gaps, we introduce FOReCAst (Future Outcome Reasoning and Confidence Assessment), a benchmark that evaluates models' ability to make predictions and their confidence in them. FOReCAst spans diverse forecasting scenarios involving Boolean questions, timeframe prediction, and quantity estimation, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of both prediction accuracy and confidence calibration for real-world applications.

Training dialog policies for speech-based virtual assistants requires a plethora of conversational data. The data collection phase is often expensive and time consuming due to human involvement. To address this issue, a common solution is to build user simulators for data generation. For the successful deployment of the trained policies into real world domains, it is vital that the user simulator mimics realistic conditions. In particular, speech-based assistants are heavily affected by automatic speech recognition and language understanding errors, hence the user simulator should be able to simulate similar errors. In this paper, we review the existing error simulation methods that induce errors at audio, phoneme, text, or semantic level; and conduct detailed comparisons between the audio-level and text-level methods. In the process, we improve the existing text-level method by introducing confidence score prediction and out-of-vocabulary word mapping. We also explore the impact of audio-level and text-level methods on learning a simple clarification dialog policy to recover from errors to provide insight on future improvement for both approaches.

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit advanced reasoning skills, enabling robots to comprehend natural language instructions and strategically plan high-level actions through proper grounding. However, LLM hallucination may result in robots confidently executing plans that are misaligned with user goals or even unsafe in critical scenarios. Additionally, inherent ambiguity in natural language instructions can introduce uncertainty into the LLM's reasoning and planning processes.We propose introspective planning, a systematic approach that align LLM's uncertainty with the inherent ambiguity of the task. Our approach constructs a knowledge base containing introspective reasoning examples as post-hoc rationalizations of human-selected safe and compliant plans, which are retrieved during deployment. Evaluations on three tasks, including a newly introduced safe mobile manipulation benchmark, demonstrate that introspection substantially improves both compliance and safety over state-of-the-art LLM-based planning methods. Furthermore, we empirically show that introspective planning, in combination with conformal prediction, achieves tighter confidence bounds, maintaining statistical success guarantees while minimizing unnecessary user clarification requests. The webpage and code are accessible at https://introplan.github.io.

Once deployed, medical image analysis methods are often faced with unexpected image corruptions and noise perturbations. These unknown covariate shifts present significant challenges to deep learning based methods trained on "clean" images. This often results in unreliable predictions and poorly calibrated confidence, hence hindering clinical applicability. While recent methods have been developed to address specific issues such as confidence calibration or adversarial robustness, no single framework effectively tackles all these challenges simultaneously. To bridge this gap, we propose LaDiNE, a novel ensemble learning method combining the robustness of Vision Transformers with diffusion-based generative models for improved reliability in medical image classification. Specifically, transformer encoder blocks are used as hierarchical feature extractors that learn invariant features from images for each ensemble member, resulting in features that are robust to input perturbations. In addition, diffusion models are used as flexible density estimators to estimate member densities conditioned on the invariant features, leading to improved modeling of complex data distributions while retaining properly calibrated confidence. Extensive experiments on tuberculosis chest X-rays and melanoma skin cancer datasets demonstrate that LaDiNE achieves superior performance compared to a wide range of state-of-the-art methods by simultaneously improving prediction accuracy and confidence calibration under unseen noise, adversarial perturbations, and resolution degradation.

Deep Neural Networks lead the state of the art of computer vision tasks. Despite this, Neural Networks are brittle in that small changes in the input can drastically affect their prediction outcome and confidence. Consequently and naturally, research in this area mainly focus on adversarial attacks and defenses. In this paper, we take an alternative stance and introduce the concept of Assistive Signals, which are optimized to improve a model's confidence score regardless if it's under attack or not. We analyse some interesting properties of these assistive perturbations and extend the idea to optimize assistive signals in the 3D space for real-life scenarios simulating different lighting conditions and viewing angles. Experimental evaluations show that the assistive signals generated by our optimization method increase the accuracy and confidence of deep models more than those generated by conventional methods that work in the 2D space. In addition, our Assistive Signals illustrate the intrinsic bias of ML models towards certain patterns in real-life objects. We discuss how we can exploit these insights to re-think, or avoid, some patterns that might contribute to, or degrade, the detectability of objects in the real-world.

Model evolution and constant availability of data are two common phenomena in large-scale real-world machine learning applications, e.g. ads and recommendation systems. To adapt, the real-world system typically retrain with all available data and online learn with recently available data to update the models periodically with the goal of better serving performance. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, named Confidence Ranking, which designs the optimization objective as a ranking function with two different models. Our confidence ranking loss allows direct optimization of the logits output for different convex surrogate functions of metrics, e.g. AUC and Accuracy depending on the target task and dataset. Armed with our proposed methods, our experiments show that the introduction of confidence ranking loss can outperform all baselines on the CTR prediction tasks of public and industrial datasets. This framework has been deployed in the advertisement system of JD.com to serve the main traffic in the fine-rank stage.

Safety-critical perception systems require both reliable uncertainty quantification and principled abstention mechanisms to maintain safety under diverse operational conditions. We present a novel dual-threshold conformalization framework that provides statistically-guaranteed uncertainty estimates while enabling selective prediction in high-risk scenarios. Our approach uniquely combines a conformal threshold ensuring valid prediction sets with an abstention threshold optimized through ROC analysis, providing distribution-free coverage guarantees (\ge 1 - \alpha) while identifying unreliable predictions. Through comprehensive evaluation on CIFAR-100, ImageNet1K, and ModelNet40 datasets, we demonstrate superior robustness across camera and LiDAR modalities under varying environmental perturbations. The framework achieves exceptional detection performance (AUC: 0.993\to0.995) under severe conditions while maintaining high coverage (>90.0\%) and enabling adaptive abstention (13.5\%\to63.4\%\pm0.5) as environmental severity increases. For LiDAR-based perception, our approach demonstrates particularly strong performance, maintaining robust coverage (>84.5\%) while appropriately abstaining from unreliable predictions. Notably, the framework shows remarkable stability under heavy perturbations, with detection performance (AUC: 0.995\pm0.001) significantly outperforming existing methods across all modalities. Our unified approach bridges the gap between theoretical guarantees and practical deployment needs, offering a robust solution for safety-critical autonomous systems operating in challenging real-world conditions.

We extend our previous work on Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) for multi-label text classification and present a novel approach for addressing the computational inefficiency of the Label Powerset (LP) ICP, arrising when dealing with a high number of unique labels. We present experimental results using the original and the proposed efficient LP-ICP on two English and one Czech language data-sets. Specifically, we apply the LP-ICP on three deep Artificial Neural Network (ANN) classifiers of two types: one based on contextualised (bert) and two on non-contextualised (word2vec) word-embeddings. In the LP-ICP setting we assign nonconformity scores to label-sets from which the corresponding p-values and prediction-sets are determined. Our approach deals with the increased computational burden of LP by eliminating from consideration a significant number of label-sets that will surely have p-values below the specified significance level. This reduces dramatically the computational complexity of the approach while fully respecting the standard CP guarantees. Our experimental results show that the contextualised-based classifier surpasses the non-contextualised-based ones and obtains state-of-the-art performance for all data-sets examined. The good performance of the underlying classifiers is carried on to their ICP counterparts without any significant accuracy loss, but with the added benefits of ICP, i.e. the confidence information encapsulated in the prediction sets. We experimentally demonstrate that the resulting prediction sets can be tight enough to be practically useful even though the set of all possible label-sets contains more than 1e+16 combinations. Additionally, the empirical error rates of the obtained prediction-sets confirm that our outputs are well-calibrated.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are able to achieve high classification accuracy on many important real world datasets, but provide no rigorous notion of predictive uncertainty. Quantifying the confidence of GNN models is difficult due to the dependence between datapoints induced by the graph structure. We leverage recent advances in conformal prediction to construct prediction sets for node classification in inductive learning scenarios. We do this by taking an existing approach for conformal classification that relies on exchangeable data and modifying it by appropriately weighting the conformal scores to reflect the network structure. We show through experiments on standard benchmark datasets using popular GNN models that our approach provides tighter and better calibrated prediction sets than a naive application of conformal prediction.

Test-time scaling (TTS) has demonstrated remarkable success in enhancing large language models, yet its application to next-token prediction (NTP) autoregressive (AR) image generation remains largely uncharted. Existing TTS approaches for visual AR (VAR), which rely on frequent partial decoding and external reward models, are ill-suited for NTP-based image generation due to the inherent incompleteness of intermediate decoding results. To bridge this gap, we introduce ScalingAR, the first TTS framework specifically designed for NTP-based AR image generation that eliminates the need for early decoding or auxiliary rewards. ScalingAR leverages token entropy as a novel signal in visual token generation and operates at two complementary scaling levels: (i) Profile Level, which streams a calibrated confidence state by fusing intrinsic and conditional signals; and (ii) Policy Level, which utilizes this state to adaptively terminate low-confidence trajectories and dynamically schedule guidance for phase-appropriate conditioning strength. Experiments on both general and compositional benchmarks show that ScalingAR (1) improves base models by 12.5% on GenEval and 15.2% on TIIF-Bench, (2) efficiently reduces visual token consumption by 62.0% while outperforming baselines, and (3) successfully enhances robustness, mitigating performance drops by 26.0% in challenging scenarios.

Recent advances in machine learning have significantly improved prediction accuracy in various applications. However, ensuring the calibration of probabilistic predictions remains a significant challenge. Despite efforts to enhance model calibration, the rigorous statistical evaluation of model calibration remains less explored. In this work, we develop confidence intervals the ell_2 Expected Calibration Error (ECE). We consider top-1-to-k calibration, which includes both the popular notion of confidence calibration as well as full calibration. For a debiased estimator of the ECE, we show asymptotic normality, but with different convergence rates and asymptotic variances for calibrated and miscalibrated models. We develop methods to construct asymptotically valid confidence intervals for the ECE, accounting for this behavior as well as non-negativity. Our theoretical findings are supported through extensive experiments, showing that our methods produce valid confidence intervals with shorter lengths compared to those obtained by resampling-based methods.

Major cloud providers have employed advanced AI-based solutions like large language models to aid humans in identifying the root causes of cloud incidents. Despite the growing prevalence of AI-driven assistants in the root cause analysis process, their effectiveness in assisting on-call engineers is constrained by low accuracy due to the intrinsic difficulty of the task, a propensity for LLM-based approaches to hallucinate, and difficulties in distinguishing these well-disguised hallucinations. To address this challenge, we propose to perform confidence estimation for the predictions to help on-call engineers make decisions on whether to adopt the model prediction. Considering the black-box nature of many LLM-based root cause predictors, fine-tuning or temperature-scaling-based approaches are inapplicable. We therefore design an innovative confidence estimation framework based on prompting retrieval-augmented large language models (LLMs) that demand a minimal amount of information from the root cause predictor. This approach consists of two scoring phases: the LLM-based confidence estimator first evaluates its confidence in making judgments in the face of the current incident that reflects its ``grounded-ness" level in reference data, then rates the root cause prediction based on historical references. An optimization step combines these two scores for a final confidence assignment. We show that our method is able to produce calibrated confidence estimates for predicted root causes, validate the usefulness of retrieved historical data and the prompting strategy as well as the generalizability across different root cause prediction models. Our study takes an important move towards reliably and effectively embedding LLMs into cloud incident management systems.

A trustworthy real-world prediction system should produce well-calibrated confidence scores; that is, its confidence in an answer should be indicative of the likelihood that the answer is correct, enabling deferral to an expert in cases of low-confidence predictions. Recent studies have shown that unsupervised pre-training produces large language models (LMs) whose conditional probabilities are remarkably well-calibrated. However, the most widely-used LMs are fine-tuned with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF-LMs), and some studies have suggested that RLHF-LMs produce conditional probabilities that are very poorly calibrated. In light of this perceived weakness, we conduct a broad evaluation of methods for extracting confidence scores from RLHF-LMs. For RLHF-LMs such as ChatGPT, GPT-4, and Claude, we find that verbalized confidences emitted as output tokens are typically better-calibrated than the model's conditional probabilities on the TriviaQA, SciQ, and TruthfulQA benchmarks, often reducing the expected calibration error by a relative 50%.

Accurate and contrast-free Major Adverse Cardiac Events (MACE) prediction from Cine MRI sequences remains a critical challenge. Existing methods typically necessitate supervised learning based on human-refined masks in the ventricular myocardium, which become impractical without contrast agents. We introduce a self-supervised framework, namely Codebook-based Temporal-Spatial Learning (CTSL), that learns dynamic, spatiotemporal representations from raw Cine data without requiring segmentation masks. CTSL decouples temporal and spatial features through a multi-view distillation strategy, where the teacher model processes multiple Cine views, and the student model learns from reduced-dimensional Cine-SA sequences. By leveraging codebook-based feature representations and dynamic lesion self-detection through motion cues, CTSL captures intricate temporal dependencies and motion patterns. High-confidence MACE risk predictions are achieved through our model, providing a rapid, non-invasive solution for cardiac risk assessment that outperforms traditional contrast-dependent methods, thereby enabling timely and accessible heart disease diagnosis in clinical settings.

Accurate air quality forecasts are vital for public health alerts, exposure assessment, and emissions control. In practice, observational data are often missing in varying proportions and patterns due to collection and transmission issues. These incomplete spatiotemporal records impede reliable inference and risk assessment and can lead to overconfident extrapolation. To address these challenges, we propose an end to end framework, the channel gated learning unit based spatiotemporal bayesian neural field (CGLUBNF). It uses Fourier features with a graph attention encoder to capture multiscale spatial dependencies and seasonal temporal dynamics. A channel gated learning unit, equipped with learnable activations and gated residual connections, adaptively filters and amplifies informative features. Bayesian inference jointly optimizes predictive distributions and parameter uncertainty, producing point estimates and calibrated prediction intervals. We conduct a systematic evaluation on two real world datasets, covering four typical missing data patterns and comparing against five state of the art baselines. CGLUBNF achieves superior prediction accuracy and sharper confidence intervals. In addition, we further validate robustness across multiple prediction horizons and analysis the contribution of extraneous variables. This research lays a foundation for reliable deep learning based spatio-temporal forecasting with incomplete observations in emerging sensing paradigms, such as real world vehicle borne mobile monitoring.

Expressing confidence is challenging for embodied agents navigating dynamic multimodal environments, where uncertainty arises from both perception and decision-making processes. We present the first work investigating embodied confidence elicitation in open-ended multimodal environments. We introduce Elicitation Policies, which structure confidence assessment across inductive, deductive, and abductive reasoning, along with Execution Policies, which enhance confidence calibration through scenario reinterpretation, action sampling, and hypothetical reasoning. Evaluating agents in calibration and failure prediction tasks within the Minecraft environment, we show that structured reasoning approaches, such as Chain-of-Thoughts, improve confidence calibration. However, our findings also reveal persistent challenges in distinguishing uncertainty, particularly under abductive settings, underscoring the need for more sophisticated embodied confidence elicitation methods.

Human mobility prediction is a fundamental task essential for various applications in urban planning, location-based services and intelligent transportation systems. Existing methods often ignore activity information crucial for reasoning human preferences and routines, or adopt a simplified representation of the dependencies between time, activities and locations. To address these issues, we present Hierarchical Graph Attention Recurrent Network (HGARN) for human mobility prediction. Specifically, we construct a hierarchical graph based on past mobility records and employ a Hierarchical Graph Attention Module to capture complex time-activity-location dependencies. This way, HGARN can learn representations with rich human travel semantics to model user preferences at the global level. We also propose a model-agnostic history-enhanced confidence (MAHEC) label to incorporate each user's individual-level preferences. Finally, we introduce a Temporal Module, which employs recurrent structures to jointly predict users' next activities and their associated locations, with the former used as an auxiliary task to enhance the latter prediction. For model evaluation, we test the performance of HGARN against existing state-of-the-art methods in both the recurring (i.e., returning to a previously visited location) and explorative (i.e., visiting a new location) settings. Overall, HGARN outperforms other baselines significantly in all settings based on two real-world human mobility data benchmarks. These findings confirm the important role that human activities play in determining mobility decisions, illustrating the need to develop activity-aware intelligent transportation systems. Source codes of this study are available at https://github.com/YihongT/HGARN.

Accurate sensor calibration is crucial for autonomous systems, yet its uncertainty quantification remains underexplored. We present the first approach to integrate uncertainty awareness into online extrinsic calibration, combining Monte Carlo Dropout with Conformal Prediction to generate prediction intervals with a guaranteed level of coverage. Our method proposes a framework to enhance existing calibration models with uncertainty quantification, compatible with various network architectures. Validated on KITTI (RGB Camera-LiDAR) and DSEC (Event Camera-LiDAR) datasets, we demonstrate effectiveness across different visual sensor types, measuring performance with adapted metrics to evaluate the efficiency and reliability of the intervals. By providing calibration parameters with quantifiable confidence measures, we offer insights into the reliability of calibration estimates, which can greatly improve the robustness of sensor fusion in dynamic environments and usefully serve the Computer Vision community.

Background and Objective: Radiation pneumonitis (RP) is a side effect of thoracic radiation therapy. Recently, Machine learning (ML) models enhanced with radiomic and dosiomic features provide better predictions by incorporating spatial information beyond DVHs. However, to improve the clinical decision process, we propose to use uncertainty quantification (UQ) to improve the confidence in model prediction. This study evaluates the impact of post hoc UQ methods on the discriminative performance and calibration of ML models for RP prediction. Methods: This study evaluated four ML models: logistic regression (LR), support vector machines (SVM), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and random forest (RF), using radiomic, dosiomic, and dosimetric features to predict RP. We applied UQ methods, including Patt scaling, isotonic regression, Venn-ABERS predictor, and Conformal Prediction, to quantify uncertainty. Model performance was assessed through Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC), Area Under the Precision-Recall Curve (AUPRC), and Adaptive Calibration Error (ACE) using Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (LOO-CV). Results: UQ methods enhanced predictive performance, particularly for high-certainty predictions, while also improving calibration. Radiomic and dosiomic features increased model accuracy but introduced calibration challenges, especially for non-linear models like XGB and RF. Performance gains from UQ methods were most noticeable at higher certainty thresholds. Conclusion: Integrating UQ into ML models with radiomic and dosiomic features improves both predictive accuracy and calibration, supporting more reliable clinical decision-making. The findings emphasize the value of UQ methods in enhancing applicability of predictive models for RP in healthcare settings.

Accurately predicting customer Lifetime Value (LTV) is crucial for companies to optimize their revenue strategies. Traditional deep learning models for LTV prediction are effective but typically provide only point estimates and fail to capture model uncertainty in modeling user behaviors. To address this limitation, we propose a novel approach that enhances the architecture of purely neural network models by incorporating the Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD) framework. We benchmarked the proposed method using data from one of the most downloaded mobile games in the world, and demonstrated a substantial improvement in predictive Top 5\% Mean Absolute Percentage Error compared to existing state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, our approach provides confidence metric as an extra dimension for performance evaluation across various neural network models, facilitating more informed business decisions.

Diffusion Transformers (DiTs) have demonstrated remarkable performance in visual generation tasks. However, their low inference speed limits their deployment in low-resource applications. Recent training-free approaches exploit the redundancy of features across timesteps by caching and reusing past representations to accelerate inference. Building on this idea, TaylorSeer instead uses cached features to predict future ones via Taylor expansion. However, its module-level prediction across all transformer blocks (e.g., attention or feedforward modules) requires storing fine-grained intermediate features, leading to notable memory and computation overhead. Moreover, it adopts a fixed caching schedule without considering the varying accuracy of predictions across timesteps, which can lead to degraded outputs when prediction fails. To address these limitations, we propose a novel approach to better leverage Taylor-based acceleration. First, we shift the Taylor prediction target from the module level to the last block level, significantly reducing the number of cached features. Furthermore, observing strong sequential dependencies among Transformer blocks, we propose to use the error between the Taylor-estimated and actual outputs of the first block as an indicator of prediction reliability. If the error is small, we trust the Taylor prediction for the last block; otherwise, we fall back to full computation, thereby enabling a dynamic caching mechanism. Empirical results show that our method achieves a better balance between speed and quality, achieving a 3.17x acceleration on FLUX, 2.36x on DiT, and 4.14x on Wan Video with negligible quality drop. The Project Page is https://cg-taylor-acce.github.io/CG-Taylor/{here.}

Vision-based semantic occupancy and flow prediction plays a crucial role in providing spatiotemporal cues for real-world tasks, such as autonomous driving. Existing methods prioritize higher accuracy to cater to the demands of these tasks. In this work, we strive to improve performance by introducing a series of targeted improvements for 3D semantic occupancy prediction and flow estimation. First, we introduce an occlusion-aware adaptive lifting mechanism with a depth denoising technique to improve the robustness of 2D-to-3D feature transformation and reduce the reliance on depth priors. Second, we strengthen the semantic consistency between 3D features and their original 2D modalities by utilizing shared semantic prototypes to jointly constrain both 2D and 3D features. This is complemented by confidence- and category-based sampling strategies to tackle long-tail challenges in 3D space. To alleviate the feature encoding burden in the joint prediction of semantics and flow, we propose a BEV cost volume-based prediction method that links flow and semantic features through a cost volume and employs a classification-regression supervision scheme to address the varying flow scales in dynamic scenes. Our purely convolutional architecture framework, named ALOcc, achieves an optimal tradeoff between speed and accuracy achieving state-of-the-art results on multiple benchmarks. On Occ3D and training without the camera visible mask, our ALOcc achieves an absolute gain of 2.5\% in terms of RayIoU while operating at a comparable speed compared to the state-of-the-art, using the same input size (256times704) and ResNet-50 backbone. Our method also achieves 2nd place in the CVPR24 Occupancy and Flow Prediction Competition.

Large language models (LLMs) that produce human-like responses have begun to revolutionize research practices in the social sciences. We develop a novel methodological framework that fine-tunes LLMs with repeated cross-sectional surveys to incorporate the meaning of survey questions, individual beliefs, and temporal contexts for opinion prediction. We introduce two new emerging applications of the AI-augmented survey: retrodiction (i.e., predict year-level missing responses) and unasked opinion prediction (i.e., predict entirely missing responses). Among 3,110 binarized opinions from 68,846 Americans in the General Social Survey from 1972 to 2021, our models based on Alpaca-7b excel in retrodiction (AUC = 0.86 for personal opinion prediction, rho = 0.98 for public opinion prediction). These remarkable prediction capabilities allow us to fill in missing trends with high confidence and pinpoint when public attitudes changed, such as the rising support for same-sex marriage. On the other hand, our fine-tuned Alpaca-7b models show modest success in unasked opinion prediction (AUC = 0.73, rho = 0.67). We discuss practical constraints and ethical concerns regarding individual autonomy and privacy when using LLMs for opinion prediction. Our study demonstrates that LLMs and surveys can mutually enhance each other's capabilities: LLMs can broaden survey potential, while surveys can improve the alignment of LLMs.

We introduce IntFold, a controllable foundation model for both general and specialized biomolecular structure prediction. IntFold demonstrates predictive accuracy comparable to the state-of-the-art AlphaFold3, while utilizing a superior customized attention kernel. Beyond standard structure prediction, IntFold can be adapted to predict allosteric states, constrained structures, and binding affinity through the use of individual adapters. Furthermore, we introduce a novel confidence head to estimate docking quality, offering a more nuanced assessment for challenging targets such as antibody-antigen complexes. Finally, we share insights gained during the training process of this computationally intensive model.

Large language models (LLMs) specializing in natural language generation (NLG) have recently started exhibiting promising capabilities across a variety of domains. However, gauging the trustworthiness of responses generated by LLMs remains an open challenge, with limited research on uncertainty quantification (UQ) for NLG. Furthermore, existing literature typically assumes white-box access to language models, which is becoming unrealistic either due to the closed-source nature of the latest LLMs or computational constraints. In this work, we investigate UQ in NLG for black-box LLMs. We first differentiate uncertainty vs confidence: the former refers to the "dispersion" of the potential predictions for a fixed input, and the latter refers to the confidence on a particular prediction/generation. We then propose and compare several confidence/uncertainty metrics, applying them to selective NLG where unreliable results could either be ignored or yielded for further assessment. Experiments were carried out with several popular LLMs on question-answering datasets (for evaluation purposes). Results reveal that a simple metric for the semantic dispersion can be a reliable predictor of the quality of LLM responses, providing valuable insights for practitioners on uncertainty management when adopting LLMs. The code to replicate our experiments is available at https://github.com/zlin7/UQ-NLG.

Cell instance segmentation (CIS) is crucial for identifying individual cell morphologies in histopathological images, providing valuable insights for biological and medical research. While unsupervised CIS (UCIS) models aim to reduce the heavy reliance on labor-intensive image annotations, they fail to accurately capture cell boundaries, causing missed detections and poor performance. Recognizing the absence of error-free instances as a key limitation, we present COIN (COnfidence score-guided INstance distillation), a novel annotation-free framework with three key steps: (1) Increasing the sensitivity for the presence of error-free instances via unsupervised semantic segmentation with optimal transport, leveraging its ability to discriminate spatially minor instances, (2) Instance-level confidence scoring to measure the consistency between model prediction and refined mask and identify highly confident instances, offering an alternative to ground truth annotations, and (3) Progressive expansion of confidence with recursive self-distillation. Extensive experiments across six datasets show COIN outperforming existing UCIS methods, even surpassing semi- and weakly-supervised approaches across all metrics on the MoNuSeg and TNBC datasets. The code is available at https://github.com/shjo-april/COIN.

FOLD-RM is an explainable machine learning classification algorithm that uses training data to create a set of classification rules. In this paper we introduce CON-FOLD which extends FOLD-RM in several ways. CON-FOLD assigns probability-based confidence scores to rules learned for a classification task. This allows users to know how confident they should be in a prediction made by the model. We present a confidence-based pruning algorithm that uses the unique structure of FOLD-RM rules to efficiently prune rules and prevent overfitting. Furthermore, CON-FOLD enables the user to provide pre-existing knowledge in the form of logic program rules that are either (fixed) background knowledge or (modifiable) initial rule candidates. The paper describes our method in detail and reports on practical experiments. We demonstrate the performance of the algorithm on benchmark datasets from the UCI Machine Learning Repository. For that, we introduce a new metric, Inverse Brier Score, to evaluate the accuracy of the produced confidence scores. Finally we apply this extension to a real world example that requires explainability: marking of student responses to a short answer question from the Australian Physics Olympiad.

Domain adaptive panoptic segmentation promises to resolve the long tail of corner cases in natural scene understanding. Previous state of the art addresses this problem with cross-task consistency, careful system-level optimization and heuristic improvement of teacher predictions. In contrast, we propose to build upon remarkable capability of mask transformers to estimate their own prediction uncertainty. Our method avoids noise amplification by leveraging fine-grained confidence of panoptic teacher predictions. In particular, we modulate the loss with mask-wide confidence and discourage back-propagation in pixels with uncertain teacher or confident student. Experimental evaluation on standard benchmarks reveals a substantial contribution of the proposed selection techniques. We report 47.4 PQ on Synthia to Cityscapes, which corresponds to an improvement of 6.2 percentage points over the state of the art. The source code is available at https://github.com/helen1c/MC-PanDA.

Prediction sets capture uncertainty by predicting sets of labels rather than individual labels, enabling downstream decisions to conservatively account for all plausible outcomes. Conformal inference algorithms construct prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with high probability. These guarantees fail to hold in the face of distribution shift, which is precisely when reliable uncertainty quantification can be most useful. We propose a novel algorithm for constructing prediction sets with PAC guarantees in the label shift setting. This method estimates the predicted probabilities of the classes in a target domain, as well as the confusion matrix, then propagates uncertainty in these estimates through a Gaussian elimination algorithm to compute confidence intervals for importance weights. Finally, it uses these intervals to construct prediction sets. We evaluate our approach on five datasets: the CIFAR-10, ChestX-Ray and Entity-13 image datasets, the tabular CDC Heart dataset, and the AGNews text dataset. Our algorithm satisfies the PAC guarantee while producing smaller, more informative, prediction sets compared to several baselines.

Prediction sets have recently been shown to be a promising strategy for quantifying the uncertainty of deep neural networks in a way that provides theoretical guarantees. However, existing techniques have largely targeted settings where the space of labels is simple, so prediction sets can be arbitrary subsets of labels. For structured prediction problems where the space of labels is exponential in size, even prediction sets containing a small fraction of all labels can be exponentially large. In the context of code generation, we propose a solution that considers a restricted set of prediction sets that can compactly be represented as partial programs, which are programs with portions replaced with holes. Given a trained code generation model, our algorithm leverages a programming language's abstract syntax tree to generate a set of programs such that the correct program is in the set with high-confidence. Valuable applications of our algorithm include a Codex-style code generator with holes in uncertain parts of the generated code, which provides a partial program with theoretical guarantees. We evaluate our approach on PICARD (a T5 model for SQL semantic parsing) and Codex (a GPT model for over a dozen programming languages, including Python), demonstrating that our approach generates compact PAC prediction sets. This is the first research contribution that generates PAC prediction sets for generative code models.

Early action prediction deals with inferring the ongoing action from partially-observed videos, typically at the outset of the video. We propose a bottleneck-based attention model that captures the evolution of the action, through progressive sampling over fine-to-coarse scales. Our proposed Temporal Progressive (TemPr) model is composed of multiple attention towers, one for each scale. The predicted action label is based on the collective agreement considering confidences of these towers. Extensive experiments over four video datasets showcase state-of-the-art performance on the task of Early Action Prediction across a range of encoder architectures. We demonstrate the effectiveness and consistency of TemPr through detailed ablations.

Drug discovery is a complex and resource-intensive process, making early prediction of approval outcomes critical for optimizing research investments. While classical machine learning and deep learning methods have shown promise in drug approval prediction, their limited interpretability constraints their impact. Here, we present DrugReasoner, a reasoning-based large language model (LLM) built on the LLaMA architecture and fine-tuned with group relative policy optimization (GRPO) to predict the likelihood of small-molecule approval. DrugReasoner integrates molecular descriptors with comparative reasoning against structurally similar approved and unapproved compounds, generating predictions alongside step-by-step rationales and confidence scores. DrugReasoner achieved robust performance with an AUC of 0.732 and an F1 score of 0.729 on the validation set and 0.725 and 0.718 on the test set, respectively. These results outperformed conventional baselines, including logistic regression, support vector machine, and k-nearest neighbors and had competitive performance relative to XGBoost. On an external independent dataset, DrugReasoner outperformed both baseline and the recently developed ChemAP model, achieving an AUC of 0.728 and an F1-score of 0.774, while maintaining high precision and balanced sensitivity, demonstrating robustness in real-world scenarios. These findings demonstrate that DrugReasoner not only delivers competitive predictive accuracy but also enhances transparency through its reasoning outputs, thereby addressing a key bottleneck in AI-assisted drug discovery. This study highlights the potential of reasoning-augmented LLMs as interpretable and effective tools for pharmaceutical decision-making.

Language models have made significant progress in generating coherent text and predicting next tokens based on input prompts. This study compares the next-token prediction performance of two well-known models: OpenAI's GPT-2 and Meta's Llama-2-7b-chat-hf on Theory of Mind (ToM) tasks. To evaluate their capabilities, we built a dataset from 10 short stories sourced from the Explore ToM Dataset. We enhanced these stories by programmatically inserting additional sentences (infills) using GPT-4, creating variations that introduce different levels of contextual complexity. This setup enables analysis of how increasing context affects model performance. We tested both models under four temperature settings (0.01, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0) and evaluated their ability to predict the next token across three reasoning levels. Zero-order reasoning involves tracking the state, either current (ground truth) or past (memory). First-order reasoning concerns understanding another's mental state (e.g., "Does Anne know the apple is salted?"). Second-order reasoning adds recursion (e.g., "Does Anne think that Charles knows the apple is salted?"). Our results show that adding more infill sentences slightly reduces prediction accuracy, as added context increases complexity and ambiguity. Llama-2 consistently outperforms GPT-2 in prediction accuracy, especially at lower temperatures, demonstrating greater confidence in selecting the most probable token. As reasoning complexity rises, model responses diverge more. Notably, GPT-2 and Llama-2 display greater variability in predictions during first- and second-order reasoning tasks. These findings illustrate how model architecture, temperature, and contextual complexity influence next-token prediction, contributing to a better understanding of the strengths and limitations of current language models.

Despite their vast capabilities, Large Language Models (LLMs) often struggle with generating reliable outputs, frequently producing high-confidence inaccuracies known as hallucinations. Addressing this challenge, our research introduces InternalInspector, a novel framework designed to enhance confidence estimation in LLMs by leveraging contrastive learning on internal states including attention states, feed-forward states, and activation states of all layers. Unlike existing methods that primarily focus on the final activation state, InternalInspector conducts a comprehensive analysis across all internal states of every layer to accurately identify both correct and incorrect prediction processes. By benchmarking InternalInspector against existing confidence estimation methods across various natural language understanding and generation tasks, including factual question answering, commonsense reasoning, and reading comprehension, InternalInspector achieves significantly higher accuracy in aligning the estimated confidence scores with the correctness of the LLM's predictions and lower calibration error. Furthermore, InternalInspector excels at HaluEval, a hallucination detection benchmark, outperforming other internal-based confidence estimation methods in this task.

In this work, we present a novel conformal prediction method for time-series, which we call Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Prediction Intervals (KOWCPI). Specifically, KOWCPI adapts the classic Reweighted Nadaraya-Watson (RNW) estimator for quantile regression on dependent data and learns optimal data-adaptive weights. Theoretically, we tackle the challenge of establishing a conditional coverage guarantee for non-exchangeable data under strong mixing conditions on the non-conformity scores. We demonstrate the superior performance of KOWCPI on real and synthetic time-series data against state-of-the-art methods, where KOWCPI achieves narrower confidence intervals without losing coverage.

High-definition (HD) maps have played an integral role in the development of modern autonomous vehicle (AV) stacks, albeit with high associated labeling and maintenance costs. As a result, many recent works have proposed methods for estimating HD maps online from sensor data, enabling AVs to operate outside of previously-mapped regions. However, current online map estimation approaches are developed in isolation of their downstream tasks, complicating their integration in AV stacks. In particular, they do not produce uncertainty or confidence estimates. In this work, we extend multiple state-of-the-art online map estimation methods to additionally estimate uncertainty and show how this enables more tightly integrating online mapping with trajectory forecasting. In doing so, we find that incorporating uncertainty yields up to 50% faster training convergence and up to 15% better prediction performance on the real-world nuScenes driving dataset.

Empowering large language models to accurately express confidence in their answers is essential for trustworthy decision-making. Previous confidence elicitation methods, which primarily rely on white-box access to internal model information or model fine-tuning, have become less suitable for LLMs, especially closed-source commercial APIs. This leads to a growing need to explore the untapped area of black-box approaches for LLM uncertainty estimation. To better break down the problem, we define a systematic framework with three components: prompting strategies for eliciting verbalized confidence, sampling methods for generating multiple responses, and aggregation techniques for computing consistency. We then benchmark these methods on two key tasks-confidence calibration and failure prediction-across five types of datasets (e.g., commonsense and arithmetic reasoning) and five widely-used LLMs including GPT-4 and LLaMA 2 Chat. Our analysis uncovers several key insights: 1) LLMs, when verbalizing their confidence, tend to be overconfident, potentially imitating human patterns of expressing confidence. 2) As model capability scales up, both calibration and failure prediction performance improve. 3) Employing our proposed strategies, such as human-inspired prompts, consistency among multiple responses, and better aggregation strategies can help mitigate this overconfidence from various perspectives. 4) Comparisons with white-box methods indicate that while white-box methods perform better, the gap is narrow, e.g., 0.522 to 0.605 in AUROC. Despite these advancements, none of these techniques consistently outperform others, and all investigated methods struggle in challenging tasks, such as those requiring professional knowledge, indicating significant scope for improvement. We believe this study can serve as a strong baseline and provide insights for eliciting confidence in black-box LLMs.

Accurate uncertainty measurement is a key step to building robust and reliable machine learning systems. Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification algorithm popular for its ease of implementation, statistical coverage guarantees, and versatility for underlying forecasters. However, existing conformal prediction algorithms for time series are limited to single-step prediction without considering the temporal dependency. In this paper, we propose a Copula Conformal Prediction algorithm for multivariate, multi-step Time Series forecasting, CopulaCPTS. We prove that CopulaCPTS has finite sample validity guarantee. On several synthetic and real-world multivariate time series datasets, we show that CopulaCPTS produces more calibrated and sharp confidence intervals for multi-step prediction tasks than existing techniques.

Large reasoning models achieve strong performance on complex tasks by generating extended chains of thought, but they often "overthink": continuing to reason long after they have enough information to answer correctly. This wastes inference-time compute and can hurt accuracy. Existing attempts to stop early either manipulate decoding with extra sampling and heuristics, rely on auxiliary verifier models, or operate only as post-hoc analysis pipelines without formal guarantees. We introduce LYNX, an online early-exit mechanism that turns a model's own hidden-state awareness into confidence-controlled stopping decisions. LYNX attaches exit decisions to naturally occurring reasoning cues (e.g., "hmm", "wait") during generation, trains a lightweight probe on hidden states at those cue tokens using supervision from forced exits, and wraps the resulting scores in split conformal prediction to obtain distribution-free control over premature exits. Crucially, we train and calibrate this probe once on a generic mathematical corpus and reuse it unchanged across benchmarks, decoding temperatures, and even non-mathematical tasks. Across three model families spanning 1.5B to 32B parameters, a single mathematically trained probe per base model yields strong accuracy--efficiency tradeoffs. On GSM8K, LYNX matches or improves baseline accuracy while reducing tokens by 40--65\%; on MATH-500 it improves accuracy by up to 12 points with roughly 35--60\% fewer tokens; on AIME 2024 it recovers baseline accuracy with more than 50\% token savings; and on CommonsenseQA, a non-math benchmark, it transfers zero-shot with modest accuracy gains and up to 70\% fewer tokens. Compared to state-of-the-art early-exit methods, LYNX offers competitive or superior Pareto frontiers while remaining fully online, requiring no proxy models at inference, and providing explicit, user-tunable confidence guarantees.

Accurate prediction of pedestrians' future motions is critical for intelligent driving systems. Developing models for this task requires rich datasets containing diverse sets of samples. However, the existing naturalistic trajectory prediction datasets are generally imbalanced in favor of simpler samples and lack challenging scenarios. Such a long-tail effect causes prediction models to underperform on the tail portion of the data distribution containing safety-critical scenarios. Previous methods tackle the long-tail problem using methods such as contrastive learning and class-conditioned hypernetworks. These approaches, however, are not modular and cannot be applied to many machine learning architectures. In this work, we propose a modular model-agnostic framework for trajectory prediction that leverages a specialized mixture of experts. In our approach, each expert is trained with a specialized skill with respect to a particular part of the data. To produce predictions, we utilise a router network that selects the best expert by generating relative confidence scores. We conduct experimentation on common pedestrian trajectory prediction datasets and show that besides achieving state-of-the-art performance, our method significantly performs better on long-tail scenarios. We further conduct ablation studies to highlight the contribution of different proposed components.

Membership inference attacks (MIAs) aim to determine whether a specific sample was used to train a predictive model. Knowing this may indeed lead to a privacy breach. Most MIAs, however, make use of the model's prediction scores - the probability of each output given some input - following the intuition that the trained model tends to behave differently on its training data. We argue that this is a fallacy for many modern deep network architectures. Consequently, MIAs will miserably fail since overconfidence leads to high false-positive rates not only on known domains but also on out-of-distribution data and implicitly acts as a defense against MIAs. Specifically, using generative adversarial networks, we are able to produce a potentially infinite number of samples falsely classified as part of the training data. In other words, the threat of MIAs is overestimated, and less information is leaked than previously assumed. Moreover, there is actually a trade-off between the overconfidence of models and their susceptibility to MIAs: the more classifiers know when they do not know, making low confidence predictions, the more they reveal the training data.

To reject the Efficient Market Hypothesis a set of 5 technical indicators and 23 fundamental indicators was identified to establish the possibility of generating excess returns on the stock market. Leveraging these data points and various classification machine learning models, trading data of the 505 equities on the US S&P500 over the past 20 years was analysed to develop a classifier effective for our cause. From any given day, we were able to predict the direction of change in price by 1% up to 10 days in the future. The predictions had an overall accuracy of 83.62% with a precision of 85% for buy signals and a recall of 100% for sell signals. Moreover, we grouped equities by their sector and repeated the experiment to see if grouping similar assets together positively effected the results but concluded that it showed no significant improvements in the performance rejecting the idea of sector-based analysis. Also, using feature ranking we could identify an even smaller set of 6 indicators while maintaining similar accuracies as that from the original 28 features and also uncovered the importance of buy, hold and sell analyst ratings as they came out to be the top contributors in the model. Finally, to evaluate the effectiveness of the classifier in real-life situations, it was backtested on FAANG equities using a modest trading strategy where it generated high returns of above 60% over the term of the testing dataset. In conclusion, our proposed methodology with the combination of purposefully picked features shows an improvement over the previous studies, and our model predicts the direction of 1% price changes on the 10th day with high confidence and with enough buffer to even build a robotic trading system.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have demonstrated strong capabilities in aligning visual and textual modalities, enabling a wide range of applications in multimodal understanding and generation. While they excel in zero-shot and transfer learning scenarios, VLMs remain susceptible to misclassification, often yielding confident yet incorrect predictions. This limitation poses a significant risk in safety-critical domains, where erroneous predictions can lead to severe consequences. In this work, we introduce TrustVLM, a training-free framework designed to address the critical challenge of estimating when VLM's predictions can be trusted. Motivated by the observed modality gap in VLMs and the insight that certain concepts are more distinctly represented in the image embedding space, we propose a novel confidence-scoring function that leverages this space to improve misclassification detection. We rigorously evaluate our approach across 17 diverse datasets, employing 4 architectures and 2 VLMs, and demonstrate state-of-the-art performance, with improvements of up to 51.87% in AURC, 9.14% in AUROC, and 32.42% in FPR95 compared to existing baselines. By improving the reliability of the model without requiring retraining, TrustVLM paves the way for safer deployment of VLMs in real-world applications. The code will be available at https://github.com/EPFL-IMOS/TrustVLM.

Recent progress in large language models (LLMs) highlights the power of scaling test-time compute to achieve strong performance on complex tasks, such as mathematical reasoning and code generation. This raises a critical question: how should model training be modified to optimize performance under a subsequent test-time compute strategy and budget? To explore this, we focus on pass@N, a simple test-time strategy that searches for a correct answer in N independent samples. We show, surprisingly, that training with cross-entropy (CE) loss can be {it misaligned} with pass@N in that pass@N accuracy {it decreases} with longer training. We explain the origins of this misalignment in terms of model overconfidence induced by CE, and experimentally verify our prediction of overconfidence as an impediment to scaling test-time compute via pass@N. Furthermore we suggest a principled, modified training loss that is better aligned to pass@N by limiting model confidence and rescuing pass@N test performance. Our algorithm demonstrates improved mathematical reasoning on MATH and MiniF2F benchmarks under several scenarios: (1) providing answers to math questions; and (2) proving theorems by searching over proof trees of varying shapes. Overall our work underscores the importance of co-designing two traditionally separate phases of LLM development: training-time protocols and test-time search and reasoning strategies.

Survival prediction using whole slide images (WSIs) can be formulated as a multiple instance learning (MIL) problem. However, existing MIL methods often fail to explicitly capture pathological heterogeneity within WSIs, both globally -- through long-tailed morphological distributions, and locally through -- tile-level prediction uncertainty. Optimal transport (OT) provides a principled way of modeling such heterogeneity by incorporating marginal distribution constraints. Building on this insight, we propose OTSurv, a novel MIL framework from an optimal transport perspective. Specifically, OTSurv formulates survival predictions as a heterogeneity-aware OT problem with two constraints: (1) global long-tail constraint that models prior morphological distributions to avert both mode collapse and excessive uniformity by regulating transport mass allocation, and (2) local uncertainty-aware constraint that prioritizes high-confidence patches while suppressing noise by progressively raising the total transport mass. We then recast the initial OT problem, augmented by these constraints, into an unbalanced OT formulation that can be solved with an efficient, hardware-friendly matrix scaling algorithm. Empirically, OTSurv sets new state-of-the-art results across six popular benchmarks, achieving an absolute 3.6% improvement in average C-index. In addition, OTSurv achieves statistical significance in log-rank tests and offers high interpretability, making it a powerful tool for survival prediction in digital pathology. Our codes are available at https://github.com/Y-Research-SBU/OTSurv.

Recent advances in protein structure prediction have achieved near-atomic accuracy for well-folded proteins. However, current benchmarks inadequately assess model performance in biologically challenging contexts, especially those involving intrinsically disordered regions (IDRs), limiting their utility in applications such as drug discovery, disease variant interpretation, and protein interface design. We introduce DisProtBench, a comprehensive benchmark for evaluating protein structure prediction models (PSPMs) under structural disorder and complex biological conditions. DisProtBench spans three key axes: (1) Data complexity, covering disordered regions, G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) ligand pairs, and multimeric complexes; (2) Task diversity, benchmarking twelve leading PSPMs across structure-based tasks with unified classification, regression, and interface metrics; and (3) Interpretability, via the DisProtBench Portal, which provides precomputed 3D structures and visual error analyses. Our results reveal significant variability in model robustness under disorder, with low-confidence regions linked to functional prediction failures. Notably, global accuracy metrics often fail to predict task performance in disordered settings, emphasizing the need for function-aware evaluation. DisProtBench establishes a reproducible, extensible, and biologically grounded framework for assessing next-generation PSPMs in realistic biomedical scenarios.

Accurate 3D semantic occupancy perception is essential for autonomous driving in complex environments with diverse and irregular objects. While vision-centric methods suffer from geometric inaccuracies, LiDAR-based approaches often lack rich semantic information. To address these limitations, MS-Occ, a novel multi-stage LiDAR-camera fusion framework which includes middle-stage fusion and late-stage fusion, is proposed, integrating LiDAR's geometric fidelity with camera-based semantic richness via hierarchical cross-modal fusion. The framework introduces innovations at two critical stages: (1) In the middle-stage feature fusion, the Gaussian-Geo module leverages Gaussian kernel rendering on sparse LiDAR depth maps to enhance 2D image features with dense geometric priors, and the Semantic-Aware module enriches LiDAR voxels with semantic context via deformable cross-attention; (2) In the late-stage voxel fusion, the Adaptive Fusion (AF) module dynamically balances voxel features across modalities, while the High Classification Confidence Voxel Fusion (HCCVF) module resolves semantic inconsistencies using self-attention-based refinement. Experiments on the nuScenes-OpenOccupancy benchmark show that MS-Occ achieves an Intersection over Union (IoU) of 32.1% and a mean IoU (mIoU) of 25.3%, surpassing the state-of-the-art by +0.7% IoU and +2.4% mIoU. Ablation studies further validate the contribution of each module, with substantial improvements in small-object perception, demonstrating the practical value of MS-Occ for safety-critical autonomous driving scenarios.

Energy efficiency of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) has become an important area of research, with various strategies being developed to minimize the power consumption of these models. Previous efforts, including techniques like model pruning, quantization, and hardware optimization, have made significant strides in this direction. However, there remains a need for more effective on device AI solutions that balance energy efficiency with model performance. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to reduce the energy requirements of inference of CNNs. Our methodology employs two small Complementary CNNs that collaborate with each other by covering each other's "weaknesses" in predictions. If the confidence for a prediction of the first CNN is considered low, the second CNN is invoked with the aim of producing a higher confidence prediction. This dual-CNN setup significantly reduces energy consumption compared to using a single large deep CNN. Additionally, we propose a memory component that retains previous classifications for identical inputs, bypassing the need to re-invoke the CNNs for the same input, further saving energy. Our experiments on a Jetson Nano computer demonstrate an energy reduction of up to 85.8% achieved on modified datasets where each sample was duplicated once. These findings indicate that leveraging a complementary CNN pair along with a memory component effectively reduces inference energy while maintaining high accuracy.

Should prediction models always deliver a prediction? In the pursuit of maximum predictive performance, critical considerations of reliability and fairness are often overshadowed, particularly when it comes to the role of uncertainty. Selective regression, also known as the "reject option," allows models to abstain from predictions in cases of considerable uncertainty. Initially proposed seven decades ago, approaches to selective regression have mostly focused on distribution-based proxies for measuring uncertainty, particularly conditional variance. However, this focus neglects the significant influence of model-specific biases on a model's performance. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to selective regression by leveraging conformal prediction, which provides grounded confidence measures for individual predictions based on model-specific biases. In addition, we propose a standardized evaluation framework to allow proper comparison of selective regression approaches. Via an extensive experimental approach, we demonstrate how our proposed approach, conformalized selective regression, demonstrates an advantage over multiple state-of-the-art baselines.

Self-training is a well-known approach for semi-supervised learning. It consists of iteratively assigning pseudo-labels to unlabeled data for which the model is confident and treating them as labeled examples. For neural networks, softmax prediction probabilities are often used as a confidence measure, although they are known to be overconfident, even for wrong predictions. This phenomenon is particularly intensified in the presence of sample selection bias, i.e., when data labeling is subject to some constraint. To address this issue, we propose a novel confidence measure, called T-similarity, built upon the prediction diversity of an ensemble of linear classifiers. We provide the theoretical analysis of our approach by studying stationary points and describing the relationship between the diversity of the individual members and their performance. We empirically demonstrate the benefit of our confidence measure for three different pseudo-labeling policies on classification datasets of various data modalities. The code is available at https://github.com/ambroiseodt/tsim.

We propose an approach to estimate the number of samples required for a model to reach a target performance. We find that the power law, the de facto principle to estimate model performance, leads to large error when using a small dataset (e.g., 5 samples per class) for extrapolation. This is because the log-performance error against the log-dataset size follows a nonlinear progression in the few-shot regime followed by a linear progression in the high-shot regime. We introduce a novel piecewise power law (PPL) that handles the two data regimes differently. To estimate the parameters of the PPL, we introduce a random forest regressor trained via meta learning that generalizes across classification/detection tasks, ResNet/ViT based architectures, and random/pre-trained initializations. The PPL improves the performance estimation on average by 37% across 16 classification and 33% across 10 detection datasets, compared to the power law. We further extend the PPL to provide a confidence bound and use it to limit the prediction horizon that reduces over-estimation of data by 76% on classification and 91% on detection datasets.

Molecular structure recognition is the task of translating a molecular image into its graph structure. Significant variation in drawing styles and conventions exhibited in chemical literature poses a significant challenge for automating this task. In this paper, we propose MolScribe, a novel image-to-graph generation model that explicitly predicts atoms and bonds, along with their geometric layouts, to construct the molecular structure. Our model flexibly incorporates symbolic chemistry constraints to recognize chirality and expand abbreviated structures. We further develop data augmentation strategies to enhance the model robustness against domain shifts. In experiments on both synthetic and realistic molecular images, MolScribe significantly outperforms previous models, achieving 76-93% accuracy on public benchmarks. Chemists can also easily verify MolScribe's prediction, informed by its confidence estimation and atom-level alignment with the input image. MolScribe is publicly available through Python and web interfaces: https://github.com/thomas0809/MolScribe.

We consider the problem of Embodied Question Answering (EQA), which refers to settings where an embodied agent such as a robot needs to actively explore an environment to gather information until it is confident about the answer to a question. In this work, we leverage the strong semantic reasoning capabilities of large vision-language models (VLMs) to efficiently explore and answer such questions. However, there are two main challenges when using VLMs in EQA: they do not have an internal memory for mapping the scene to be able to plan how to explore over time, and their confidence can be miscalibrated and can cause the robot to prematurely stop exploration or over-explore. We propose a method that first builds a semantic map of the scene based on depth information and via visual prompting of a VLM - leveraging its vast knowledge of relevant regions of the scene for exploration. Next, we use conformal prediction to calibrate the VLM's question answering confidence, allowing the robot to know when to stop exploration - leading to a more calibrated and efficient exploration strategy. To test our framework in simulation, we also contribute a new EQA dataset with diverse, realistic human-robot scenarios and scenes built upon the Habitat-Matterport 3D Research Dataset (HM3D). Both simulated and real robot experiments show our proposed approach improves the performance and efficiency over baselines that do no leverage VLM for exploration or do not calibrate its confidence. Webpage with experiment videos and code: https://explore-eqa.github.io/

Identifying how much a model {p}_{theta}(Y|X) knows about the stochastic real-world process p(Y|X) it was trained on is important to ensure it avoids producing incorrect or "hallucinated" answers or taking unsafe actions. But this is difficult for generative models because probabilistic predictions do not distinguish between per-response noise (aleatoric uncertainty) and lack of knowledge about the process (epistemic uncertainty), and existing epistemic uncertainty quantification techniques tend to be overconfident when the model underfits. We propose a general strategy for teaching a model to both approximate p(Y|X) and also estimate the remaining gaps between {p}_{theta}(Y|X) and p(Y|X): train it to predict pairs of independent responses drawn from the true conditional distribution, allow it to "cheat" by observing one response while predicting the other, then measure how much it cheats. Remarkably, we prove that being good at cheating (i.e. cheating whenever it improves your prediction) is equivalent to being second-order calibrated, a principled extension of ordinary calibration that allows us to construct provably-correct frequentist confidence intervals for p(Y|X) and detect incorrect responses with high probability. We demonstrate empirically that our approach accurately estimates how much models don't know across ambiguous image classification, (synthetic) language modeling, and partially-observable navigation tasks, outperforming existing techniques.

Retrosynthesis planning is a fundamental challenge in chemistry which aims at designing reaction pathways from commercially available starting materials to a target molecule. Each step in multi-step retrosynthesis planning requires accurate prediction of possible precursor molecules given the target molecule and confidence estimates to guide heuristic search algorithms. We model single-step retrosynthesis planning as a distribution learning problem in a discrete state space. First, we introduce the Markov Bridge Model, a generative framework aimed to approximate the dependency between two intractable discrete distributions accessible via a finite sample of coupled data points. Our framework is based on the concept of a Markov bridge, a Markov process pinned at its endpoints. Unlike diffusion-based methods, our Markov Bridge Model does not need a tractable noise distribution as a sampling proxy and directly operates on the input product molecules as samples from the intractable prior distribution. We then address the retrosynthesis planning problem with our novel framework and introduce RetroBridge, a template-free retrosynthesis modeling approach that achieves state-of-the-art results on standard evaluation benchmarks.

Large medical imaging datasets can be cheaply and quickly annotated with low-confidence, weak labels (e.g., radiological scores). Access to high-confidence labels, such as histology-based diagnoses, is rare and costly. Pretraining strategies, like contrastive learning (CL) methods, can leverage unlabeled or weakly-annotated datasets. These methods typically require large batch sizes, which poses a difficulty in the case of large 3D images at full resolution, due to limited GPU memory. Nevertheless, volumetric positional information about the spatial context of each 2D slice can be very important for some medical applications. In this work, we propose an efficient weakly-supervised positional (WSP) contrastive learning strategy where we integrate both the spatial context of each 2D slice and a weak label via a generic kernel-based loss function. We illustrate our method on cirrhosis prediction using a large volume of weakly-labeled images, namely radiological low-confidence annotations, and small strongly-labeled (i.e., high-confidence) datasets. The proposed model improves the classification AUC by 5% with respect to a baseline model on our internal dataset, and by 26% on the public LIHC dataset from the Cancer Genome Atlas. The code is available at: https://github.com/Guerbet-AI/wsp-contrastive.

Speculative decoding has demonstrated its effectiveness in accelerating the inference of large language models while maintaining a consistent sampling distribution. However, the conventional approach of training a separate draft model to achieve a satisfactory token acceptance rate can be costly. Drawing inspiration from early exiting, we propose a novel self-speculative decoding framework Kangaroo, which uses a fixed shallow sub-network as a self-draft model, with the remaining layers serving as the larger target model. We train a lightweight and efficient adapter module on top of the sub-network to bridge the gap between the sub-network and the full model's representation ability. It is noteworthy that the inference latency of the self-draft model may no longer be negligible compared to the large model, necessitating strategies to increase the token acceptance rate while minimizing the drafting steps of the small model. To address this challenge, we introduce an additional early exiting mechanism for generating draft tokens. Specifically, we halt the small model's subsequent prediction during the drafting phase once the confidence level for the current token falls below a certain threshold. Extensive experiments on the Spec-Bench demonstrate the effectiveness of Kangaroo. Under single-sequence verification, Kangaroo achieves speedups up to 1.68times on Spec-Bench, outperforming Medusa-1 with 88.7\% fewer additional parameters (67M compared to 591M). The code for Kangaroo is available at https://github.com/Equationliu/Kangaroo.

Neural network calibration is an essential task in deep learning to ensure consistency between the confidence of model prediction and the true correctness likelihood. In this paper, we propose a new post-processing calibration method called Neural Clamping, which employs a simple joint input-output transformation on a pre-trained classifier via a learnable universal input perturbation and an output temperature scaling parameter. Moreover, we provide theoretical explanations on why Neural Clamping is provably better than temperature scaling. Evaluated on CIFAR-100 and ImageNet image recognition datasets and a variety of deep neural network models, our empirical results show that Neural Clamping significantly outperforms state-of-the-art post-processing calibration methods.

Recent advances in natural language processing highlight two key factors for improving reasoning in large language models (LLMs): (i) allocating more test-time compute tends to help on harder problems but often introduces redundancy in the reasoning trace, and (ii) compute is most effective when reasoning is systematic and incremental, forming structured chains of thought (CoTs) akin to human problem-solving. To study these factors in isolation, we introduce a controlled setting based on shortest-path tasks in layered graphs. We train decoder-only transformers on question-trace-answer triples using a custom tokenizer, comparing models trained on optimal bottom-up dynamic programming traces with those trained on longer, valid traces involving backtracking. Surprisingly, with the same training-token budget, models trained on inefficient traces generalize better to unseen graphs. This benefit is not due to length alone-injecting arbitrary redundancy into reasoning traces fails to help and can even hurt performance. Instead, we find that generalization correlates with the model's confidence in next-token prediction, suggesting that long, coherent, and locally incremental traces make the training signal easier to optimize.

To develop a trustworthy AI system, which aim to identify the input regions that most influence the models decisions. The primary task of existing attribution methods lies in efficiently and accurately identifying the relationships among input-prediction interactions. Particularly when the input data is discrete, such as images, analyzing the relationship between inputs and outputs poses a significant challenge due to the combinatorial explosion. In this paper, we propose a novel and efficient black-box attribution mechanism, LiMA (Less input is More faithful for Attribution), which reformulates the attribution of important regions as an optimization problem for submodular subset selection. First, to accurately assess interactions, we design a submodular function that quantifies subset importance and effectively captures their impact on decision outcomes. Then, efficiently ranking input sub-regions by their importance for attribution, we improve optimization efficiency through a novel bidirectional greedy search algorithm. LiMA identifies both the most and least important samples while ensuring an optimal attribution boundary that minimizes errors. Extensive experiments on eight foundation models demonstrate that our method provides faithful interpretations with fewer regions and exhibits strong generalization, shows an average improvement of 36.3% in Insertion and 39.6% in Deletion. Our method also outperforms the naive greedy search in attribution efficiency, being 1.6 times faster. Furthermore, when explaining the reasons behind model prediction errors, the average highest confidence achieved by our method is, on average, 86.1% higher than that of state-of-the-art attribution algorithms. The code is available at https://github.com/RuoyuChen10/LIMA.

We aim to improve the performance of regressing hand keypoints and segmenting pixel-level hand masks under new imaging conditions (e.g., outdoors) when we only have labeled images taken under very different conditions (e.g., indoors). In the real world, it is important that the model trained for both tasks works under various imaging conditions. However, their variation covered by existing labeled hand datasets is limited. Thus, it is necessary to adapt the model trained on the labeled images (source) to unlabeled images (target) with unseen imaging conditions. While self-training domain adaptation methods (i.e., learning from the unlabeled target images in a self-supervised manner) have been developed for both tasks, their training may degrade performance when the predictions on the target images are noisy. To avoid this, it is crucial to assign a low importance (confidence) weight to the noisy predictions during self-training. In this paper, we propose to utilize the divergence of two predictions to estimate the confidence of the target image for both tasks. These predictions are given from two separate networks, and their divergence helps identify the noisy predictions. To integrate our proposed confidence estimation into self-training, we propose a teacher-student framework where the two networks (teachers) provide supervision to a network (student) for self-training, and the teachers are learned from the student by knowledge distillation. Our experiments show its superiority over state-of-the-art methods in adaptation settings with different lighting, grasping objects, backgrounds, and camera viewpoints. Our method improves by 4% the multi-task score on HO3D compared to the latest adversarial adaptation method. We also validate our method on Ego4D, egocentric videos with rapid changes in imaging conditions outdoors.

Robot manipulation relying on learned object-centric descriptors became popular in recent years. Visual descriptors can easily describe manipulation task objectives, they can be learned efficiently using self-supervision, and they can encode actuated and even non-rigid objects. However, learning robust, view-invariant keypoints in a self-supervised approach requires a meticulous data collection approach involving precise calibration and expert supervision. In this paper we introduce Cycle-Correspondence Loss (CCL) for view-invariant dense descriptor learning, which adopts the concept of cycle-consistency, enabling a simple data collection pipeline and training on unpaired RGB camera views. The key idea is to autonomously detect valid pixel correspondences by attempting to use a prediction over a new image to predict the original pixel in the original image, while scaling error terms based on the estimated confidence. Our evaluation shows that we outperform other self-supervised RGB-only methods, and approach performance of supervised methods, both with respect to keypoint tracking as well as for a robot grasping downstream task.

Despite the remarkable ability of large language models (LMs) to comprehend and generate language, they have a tendency to hallucinate and create factually inaccurate output. Augmenting LMs by retrieving information from external knowledge resources is one promising solution. Most existing retrieval augmented LMs employ a retrieve-and-generate setup that only retrieves information once based on the input. This is limiting, however, in more general scenarios involving generation of long texts, where continually gathering information throughout generation is essential. In this work, we provide a generalized view of active retrieval augmented generation, methods that actively decide when and what to retrieve across the course of the generation. We propose Forward-Looking Active REtrieval augmented generation (FLARE), a generic method which iteratively uses a prediction of the upcoming sentence to anticipate future content, which is then utilized as a query to retrieve relevant documents to regenerate the sentence if it contains low-confidence tokens. We test FLARE along with baselines comprehensively over 4 long-form knowledge-intensive generation tasks/datasets. FLARE achieves superior or competitive performance on all tasks, demonstrating the effectiveness of our method. Code and datasets are available at https://github.com/jzbjyb/FLARE.

We propose a new approach for propagating stable probability distributions through neural networks. Our method is based on local linearization, which we show to be an optimal approximation in terms of total variation distance for the ReLU non-linearity. This allows propagating Gaussian and Cauchy input uncertainties through neural networks to quantify their output uncertainties. To demonstrate the utility of propagating distributions, we apply the proposed method to predicting calibrated confidence intervals and selective prediction on out-of-distribution data. The results demonstrate a broad applicability of propagating distributions and show the advantages of our method over other approaches such as moment matching.

Realistic graphs contain both (1) rich self-features of nodes and (2) informative structures of neighborhoods, jointly handled by a Graph Neural Network (GNN) in the typical setup. We propose to decouple the two modalities by Mixture of weak and strong experts (Mowst), where the weak expert is a light-weight Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP), and the strong expert is an off-the-shelf GNN. To adapt the experts' collaboration to different target nodes, we propose a "confidence" mechanism based on the dispersion of the weak expert's prediction logits. The strong expert is conditionally activated in the low-confidence region when either the node's classification relies on neighborhood information, or the weak expert has low model quality. We reveal interesting training dynamics by analyzing the influence of the confidence function on loss: our training algorithm encourages the specialization of each expert by effectively generating soft splitting of the graph. In addition, our "confidence" design imposes a desirable bias toward the strong expert to benefit from GNN's better generalization capability. Mowst is easy to optimize and achieves strong expressive power, with a computation cost comparable to a single GNN. Empirically, Mowst on 4 backbone GNN architectures show significant accuracy improvement on 6 standard node classification benchmarks, including both homophilous and heterophilous graphs (https://github.com/facebookresearch/mowst-gnn).

Progress in large language models is constrained by an evaluation bottleneck: build a benchmark, evaluate models and settings, then iterate. We therefore ask a simple question: can we forecast outcomes before running any experiments? We study text-only performance forecasting: estimating a model's score from a redacted task description and intended configuration, with no access to dataset instances. To support systematic study, we curate PRECOG, a corpus of redacted description-performance pairs spanning diverse tasks, domains, and metrics. Experiments show the task is challenging but feasible: models equipped with a retrieval module that excludes source papers achieve moderate prediction performance with well-calibrated uncertainty, reaching mean absolute error as low as 8.7 on the Accuracy subset at high-confidence thresholds. Our analysis indicates that stronger reasoning models engage in diverse, iterative querying, whereas current open-source models lag and often skip retrieval or gather evidence with limited diversity. We further test a zero-leakage setting, forecasting on newly released datasets or experiments before their papers are indexed, where GPT-5 with built-in web search still attains nontrivial prediction accuracy. Overall, our corpus and analyses offer an initial step toward open-ended anticipatory evaluation, supporting difficulty estimation and smarter experiment prioritization.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) methods, which generally rely on the model's predictions (e.g., entropy minimization) to adapt the source pretrained model to the unlabeled target domain, suffer from noisy signals originating from 1) incorrect or 2) open-set predictions. Long-term stable adaptation is hampered by such noisy signals, so training models without such error accumulation is crucial for practical TTA. To address these issues, including open-set TTA, we propose a simple yet effective sample selection method inspired by the following crucial empirical finding. While entropy minimization compels the model to increase the probability of its predicted label (i.e., confidence values), we found that noisy samples rather show decreased confidence values. To be more specific, entropy minimization attempts to raise the confidence values of an individual sample's prediction, but individual confidence values may rise or fall due to the influence of signals from numerous other predictions (i.e., wisdom of crowds). Due to this fact, noisy signals misaligned with such 'wisdom of crowds', generally found in the correct signals, fail to raise the individual confidence values of wrong samples, despite attempts to increase them. Based on such findings, we filter out the samples whose confidence values are lower in the adapted model than in the original model, as they are likely to be noisy. Our method is widely applicable to existing TTA methods and improves their long-term adaptation performance in both image classification (e.g., 49.4% reduced error rates with TENT) and semantic segmentation (e.g., 11.7% gain in mIoU with TENT).

For safety-related applications, it is crucial to produce trustworthy deep neural networks whose prediction is associated with confidence that can represent the likelihood of correctness for subsequent decision-making. Existing dense binary classification models are prone to being over-confident. To improve model calibration, we propose Adaptive Stochastic Label Perturbation (ASLP) which learns a unique label perturbation level for each training image. ASLP employs our proposed Self-Calibrating Binary Cross Entropy (SC-BCE) loss, which unifies label perturbation processes including stochastic approaches (like DisturbLabel), and label smoothing, to correct calibration while maintaining classification rates. ASLP follows Maximum Entropy Inference of classic statistical mechanics to maximise prediction entropy with respect to missing information. It performs this while: (1) preserving classification accuracy on known data as a conservative solution, or (2) specifically improves model calibration degree by minimising the gap between the prediction accuracy and expected confidence of the target training label. Extensive results demonstrate that ASLP can significantly improve calibration degrees of dense binary classification models on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution data. The code is available on https://github.com/Carlisle-Liu/ASLP.

Diffusion language models (DLMs) have recently emerged as an alternative to autoregressive approaches, offering parallel sequence generation and flexible token orders. However, their inference remains slower than that of autoregressive models, primarily due to the cost of bidirectional attention and the large number of refinement steps required for high quality outputs. In this work, we highlight and leverage an overlooked property of DLMs early answer convergence: in many cases, the correct answer can be internally identified by half steps before the final decoding step, both under semi-autoregressive and random remasking schedules. For example, on GSM8K and MMLU, up to 97% and 99% of instances, respectively, can be decoded correctly using only half of the refinement steps. Building on this observation, we introduce Prophet, a training-free fast decoding paradigm that enables early commit decoding. Specifically, Prophet dynamically decides whether to continue refinement or to go "all-in" (i.e., decode all remaining tokens in one step), using the confidence gap between the top-2 prediction candidates as the criterion. It integrates seamlessly into existing DLM implementations, incurs negligible overhead, and requires no additional training. Empirical evaluations of LLaDA-8B and Dream-7B across multiple tasks show that Prophet reduces the number of decoding steps by up to 3.4x while preserving high generation quality. These results recast DLM decoding as a problem of when to stop sampling, and demonstrate that early decode convergence provides a simple yet powerful mechanism for accelerating DLM inference, complementary to existing speedup techniques. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/pixeli99/Prophet.

We propose a learning-based method to recover normals, specularity, and roughness from a single diffuse image of a material, using microgeometry appearance as our primary cue. Previous methods that work on single images tend to produce over-smooth outputs with artifacts, operate at limited resolution, or train one model per class with little room for generalization. Previous methods that work on single images tend to produce over-smooth outputs with artifacts, operate at limited resolution, or train one model per class with little room for generalization. In contrast, in this work, we propose a novel capture approach that leverages a generative network with attention and a U-Net discriminator, which shows outstanding performance integrating global information at reduced computational complexity. We showcase the performance of our method with a real dataset of digitized textile materials and show that a commodity flatbed scanner can produce the type of diffuse illumination required as input to our method. Additionally, because the problem might be illposed -more than a single diffuse image might be needed to disambiguate the specular reflection- or because the training dataset is not representative enough of the real distribution, we propose a novel framework to quantify the model's confidence about its prediction at test time. Our method is the first one to deal with the problem of modeling uncertainty in material digitization, increasing the trustworthiness of the process and enabling more intelligent strategies for dataset creation, as we demonstrate with an active learning experiment.

What fundamental properties of reward functions enable efficient sparse-reward reinforcement learning? We address this question through the lens of low-rank structure in reward matrices, showing that such structure induces a sharp transition from exponential to polynomial sample complexity, the first result of this kind for sparse-reward RL. We introduce Policy-Aware Matrix Completion (PAMC), which connects matrix completion theory with reinforcement learning via a new analysis of policy-dependent sampling. Our framework provides: (i) impossibility results for general sparse reward observation, (ii) reward-free representation learning from dynamics, (iii) distribution-free confidence sets via conformal prediction, and (iv) robust completion guarantees that degrade gracefully when low-rank structure is only approximate. Empirically, we conduct a pre-registered evaluation across 100 systematically sampled domains, finding exploitable structure in over half. PAMC improves sample efficiency by factors between 1.6 and 2.1 compared to strong exploration, structured, and representation-learning baselines, while adding only about 20 percent computational overhead.These results establish structural reward learning as a promising new paradigm, with immediate implications for robotics, healthcare, and other safety-critical, sample-expensive applications.

Safe deployment of graph neural networks (GNNs) under distribution shift requires models to provide accurate confidence indicators (CI). However, while it is well-known in computer vision that CI quality diminishes under distribution shift, this behavior remains understudied for GNNs. Hence, we begin with a case study on CI calibration under controlled structural and feature distribution shifts and demonstrate that increased expressivity or model size do not always lead to improved CI performance. Consequently, we instead advocate for the use of epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods to modulate CIs. To this end, we propose G-DeltaUQ, a new single model UQ method that extends the recently proposed stochastic centering framework to support structured data and partial stochasticity. Evaluated across covariate, concept, and graph size shifts, G-DeltaUQ not only outperforms several popular UQ methods in obtaining calibrated CIs, but also outperforms alternatives when CIs are used for generalization gap prediction or OOD detection. Overall, our work not only introduces a new, flexible GNN UQ method, but also provides novel insights into GNN CIs on safety-critical tasks.

Estimating the transferability of publicly available pretrained models to a target task has assumed an important place for transfer learning tasks in recent years. Existing efforts propose metrics that allow a user to choose one model from a pool of pre-trained models without having to fine-tune each model individually and identify one explicitly. With the growth in the number of available pre-trained models and the popularity of model ensembles, it also becomes essential to study the transferability of multiple-source models for a given target task. The few existing efforts study transferability in such multi-source ensemble settings using just the outputs of the classification layer and neglect possible domain or task mismatch. Moreover, they overlook the most important factor while selecting the source models, viz., the cohesiveness factor between them, which can impact the performance and confidence in the prediction of the ensemble. To address these gaps, we propose a novel Optimal tranSport-based suBmOdular tRaNsferability metric (OSBORN) to estimate the transferability of an ensemble of models to a downstream task. OSBORN collectively accounts for image domain difference, task difference, and cohesiveness of models in the ensemble to provide reliable estimates of transferability. We gauge the performance of OSBORN on both image classification and semantic segmentation tasks. Our setup includes 28 source datasets, 11 target datasets, 5 model architectures, and 2 pre-training methods. We benchmark our method against current state-of-the-art metrics MS-LEEP and E-LEEP, and outperform them consistently using the proposed approach.

Generating accurate and calibrated confidence estimates is critical for deploying LLMs in high-stakes or user-facing applications, and remains an open challenge. Prior research has often framed confidence as a problem of eliciting a model's "self-knowledge", i.e., the ability of an LLM to judge whether its own answers are correct; this approach implicitly assumes that there is some privileged information about the answer's correctness that is accessible to the model itself. However, our experiments reveal that an LLM attempting to predict the correctness of its own outputs generally performs no better than an unrelated LLM. Moreover, we hypothesize that a key factor in building a "Correctness Model" (CM) is exposure to a target model's historical predictions. We propose multiple methods to inject this historical correctness information, creating a Generalized Correctness Model (GCM). We first show that GCMs can be trained on the correctness data from many LLMs and learn patterns for correctness prediction applicable across datasets and models. We then use CMs as a lens for studying the source of correctness prediction ability and its generalization, systematically controlling their training data and finding that answer phrasing is a strong predictor for correctness. We further explore alternative methods of injecting history without training an LLM, finding that including history as in-context examples can help improve correctness prediction, and post-hoc calibration can provide complementary reductions in calibration error. We evaluate GCMs based on Qwen3-8B across 5 model families and the MMLU and TriviaQA datasets, as well as on a downstream selective prediction task, finding that reliable LLM confidence estimation is a generalizable and model-agnostic skill learned by systematically encoding correctness history rather than a model-specific skill reliant on self-introspection.

Benefiting from prompt tuning, recent years have witnessed the promising performance of pre-trained vision-language models, e.g., CLIP, on versatile downstream tasks. In this paper, we focus on a particular setting of learning adaptive prompts on the fly for each test sample from an unseen new domain, which is known as test-time prompt tuning (TPT). Existing TPT methods typically rely on data augmentation and confidence selection. However, conventional data augmentation techniques, e.g., random resized crops, suffers from the lack of data diversity, while entropy-based confidence selection alone is not sufficient to guarantee prediction fidelity. To address these issues, we propose a novel TPT method, named DiffTPT, which leverages pre-trained diffusion models to generate diverse and informative new data. Specifically, we incorporate augmented data by both conventional method and pre-trained stable diffusion to exploit their respective merits, improving the models ability to adapt to unknown new test data. Moreover, to ensure the prediction fidelity of generated data, we introduce a cosine similarity-based filtration technique to select the generated data with higher similarity to the single test sample. Our experiments on test datasets with distribution shifts and unseen categories demonstrate that DiffTPT improves the zero-shot accuracy by an average of 5.13\% compared to the state-of-the-art TPT method. Our code and models will be publicly released.

While making a tremendous impact in various fields, deep neural networks usually require large amounts of labeled data for training which are expensive to collect in many applications, especially in the medical domain. Unlabeled data, on the other hand, is much more abundant. Semi-supervised learning techniques, such as co-training, could provide a powerful tool to leverage unlabeled data. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, uncertainty-aware multi-view co-training (UMCT), to address semi-supervised learning on 3D data, such as volumetric data from medical imaging. In our work, co-training is achieved by exploiting multi-viewpoint consistency of 3D data. We generate different views by rotating or permuting the 3D data and utilize asymmetrical 3D kernels to encourage diversified features in different sub-networks. In addition, we propose an uncertainty-weighted label fusion mechanism to estimate the reliability of each view's prediction with Bayesian deep learning. As one view requires the supervision from other views in co-training, our self-adaptive approach computes a confidence score for the prediction of each unlabeled sample in order to assign a reliable pseudo label. Thus, our approach can take advantage of unlabeled data during training. We show the effectiveness of our proposed semi-supervised method on several public datasets from medical image segmentation tasks (NIH pancreas & LiTS liver tumor dataset). Meanwhile, a fully-supervised method based on our approach achieved state-of-the-art performances on both the LiTS liver tumor segmentation and the Medical Segmentation Decathlon (MSD) challenge, demonstrating the robustness and value of our framework, even when fully supervised training is feasible.

End-to-end text spotting aims to integrate scene text detection and recognition into a unified framework. Dealing with the relationship between the two sub-tasks plays a pivotal role in designing effective spotters. Although Transformer-based methods eliminate the heuristic post-processing, they still suffer from the synergy issue between the sub-tasks and low training efficiency. In this paper, we present DeepSolo, a simple DETR-like baseline that lets a single Decoder with Explicit Points Solo for text detection and recognition simultaneously. Technically, for each text instance, we represent the character sequence as ordered points and model them with learnable explicit point queries. After passing a single decoder, the point queries have encoded requisite text semantics and locations, thus can be further decoded to the center line, boundary, script, and confidence of text via very simple prediction heads in parallel. Besides, we also introduce a text-matching criterion to deliver more accurate supervisory signals, thus enabling more efficient training. Quantitative experiments on public benchmarks demonstrate that DeepSolo outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods and achieves better training efficiency. In addition, DeepSolo is also compatible with line annotations, which require much less annotation cost than polygons. The code is available at https://github.com/ViTAE-Transformer/DeepSolo.

Large language models are limited by challenges in factuality and hallucinations to be directly employed off-the-shelf for judging the veracity of news articles, where factual accuracy is paramount. In this work, we propose DELL that identifies three key stages in misinformation detection where LLMs could be incorporated as part of the pipeline: 1) LLMs could generate news reactions to represent diverse perspectives and simulate user-news interaction networks; 2) LLMs could generate explanations for proxy tasks (e.g., sentiment, stance) to enrich the contexts of news articles and produce experts specializing in various aspects of news understanding; 3) LLMs could merge task-specific experts and provide an overall prediction by incorporating the predictions and confidence scores of varying experts. Extensive experiments on seven datasets with three LLMs demonstrate that DELL outperforms state-of-the-art baselines by up to 16.8\% in macro f1-score. Further analysis reveals that the generated reactions and explanations are greatly helpful in misinformation detection, while our proposed LLM-guided expert merging helps produce better-calibrated predictions.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have recently been achieving state-of-the-art performance on a variety of pattern-recognition tasks, most notably visual classification problems. Given that DNNs are now able to classify objects in images with near-human-level performance, questions naturally arise as to what differences remain between computer and human vision. A recent study revealed that changing an image (e.g. of a lion) in a way imperceptible to humans can cause a DNN to label the image as something else entirely (e.g. mislabeling a lion a library). Here we show a related result: it is easy to produce images that are completely unrecognizable to humans, but that state-of-the-art DNNs believe to be recognizable objects with 99.99% confidence (e.g. labeling with certainty that white noise static is a lion). Specifically, we take convolutional neural networks trained to perform well on either the ImageNet or MNIST datasets and then find images with evolutionary algorithms or gradient ascent that DNNs label with high confidence as belonging to each dataset class. It is possible to produce images totally unrecognizable to human eyes that DNNs believe with near certainty are familiar objects, which we call "fooling images" (more generally, fooling examples). Our results shed light on interesting differences between human vision and current DNNs, and raise questions about the generality of DNN computer vision.

Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike those from a decade ago, are poorly calibrated. Through extensive experiments, we observe that depth, width, weight decay, and Batch Normalization are important factors influencing calibration. We evaluate the performance of various post-processing calibration methods on state-of-the-art architectures with image and document classification datasets. Our analysis and experiments not only offer insights into neural network learning, but also provide a simple and straightforward recipe for practical settings: on most datasets, temperature scaling -- a single-parameter variant of Platt Scaling -- is surprisingly effective at calibrating predictions.

There is a growing literature on reasoning by large language models (LLMs), but the discussion on the uncertainty in their responses is still lacking. Our aim is to assess the extent of confidence that LLMs have in their answers and how it correlates with accuracy. Confidence is measured (i) qualitatively in terms of persistence in keeping their answer when prompted to reconsider, and (ii) quantitatively in terms of self-reported confidence score. We investigate the performance of three LLMs -- GPT4o, GPT4-turbo and Mistral -- on two benchmark sets of questions on causal judgement and formal fallacies and a set of probability and statistical puzzles and paradoxes. Although the LLMs show significantly better performance than random guessing, there is a wide variability in their tendency to change their initial answers. There is a positive correlation between qualitative confidence and accuracy, but the overall accuracy for the second answer is often worse than for the first answer. There is a strong tendency to overstate the self-reported confidence score. Confidence is only partially explained by the underlying token-level probability. The material effects of prompting on qualitative confidence and the strong tendency for overconfidence indicate that current LLMs do not have any internally coherent sense of confidence.

Language models (LMs) should provide reliable confidence estimates to help users detect mistakes in their outputs and defer to human experts when necessary. Asking a language model to assess its confidence ("Score your confidence from 0-1.") is a natural way of evaluating its uncertainty. However, models struggle to provide absolute assessments of confidence (i.e. judging confidence in answering a question independent of other questions) and the coarse-grained scores they produce are not useful for evaluating the correctness of their answers. We propose relative confidence estimation, where we match up questions against each other and ask the model to make relative judgments of confidence ("Which question are you more confident in answering correctly?"). Treating each question as a "player" in a series of matchups against other questions and the model's preferences as match outcomes, we can use rank aggregation methods like Elo rating and Bradley-Terry to translate the model's confidence preferences into confidence scores. We evaluate relative confidence estimation against absolute confidence estimation and self-consistency confidence methods on five state-of-the-art LMs -- GPT-4, GPT-4o, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, and Llama 3.1 405B -- across 14 challenging STEM, social science, and commonsense reasoning question answering tasks. Our results demonstrate that relative confidence estimation consistently provides more reliable confidence scores than absolute confidence estimation, with average gains of 3.5% in selective classification AUC over direct absolute confidence estimation methods and 1.7% over self-consistency approaches across all models and datasets.

While large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance across diverse tasks, they fundamentally lack self-awareness and frequently exhibit overconfidence, assigning high confidence scores to incorrect predictions. Accurate confidence estimation is therefore critical for enhancing the trustworthiness and reliability of LLM-generated outputs. However, existing approaches suffer from coarse-grained scoring mechanisms that fail to provide fine-grained, continuous confidence estimates throughout the generation process. To address these limitations, we introduce FineCE, a novel confidence estimation method that delivers accurate, fine-grained confidence scores during text generation. Specifically, we first develop a comprehensive pipeline for constructing training data that effectively captures the underlying probabilistic distribution of LLM responses, and then train a model to predict confidence scores for arbitrary text sequences in a supervised manner. Furthermore, we propose a Backward Confidence Integration (BCI) strategy that leverages information from the subsequent text to enhance confidence estimation for the current sequence during inference. We also introduce three strategies for identifying optimal positions to perform confidence estimation within the generation process. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that FineCE consistently outperforms existing classical confidence estimation methods. Our code and all baselines used in the paper are available on GitHub.

Estimating uncertainty or confidence in the responses of a model can be significant in evaluating trust not only in the responses, but also in the model as a whole. In this paper, we explore the problem of estimating confidence for responses of large language models (LLMs) with simply black-box or query access to them. We propose a simple and extensible framework where, we engineer novel features and train a (interpretable) model (viz. logistic regression) on these features to estimate the confidence. We empirically demonstrate that our simple framework is effective in estimating confidence of flan-ul2, llama-13b and mistral-7b with it consistently outperforming existing black-box confidence estimation approaches on benchmark datasets such as TriviaQA, SQuAD, CoQA and Natural Questions by even over 10% (on AUROC) in some cases. Additionally, our interpretable approach provides insight into features that are predictive of confidence, leading to the interesting and useful discovery that our confidence models built for one LLM generalize zero-shot across others on a given dataset.

Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) complements the knowledge of Large Language Models (LLMs) by leveraging external information to enhance response accuracy for queries. This approach is widely applied in several fields by taking its advantage of injecting the most up-to-date information, and researchers are focusing on understanding and improving this aspect to unlock the full potential of RAG in such high-stakes applications. However, despite the potential of RAG to address these needs, the mechanisms behind the confidence levels of its outputs remain underexplored, although the confidence of information is very critical in some domains, such as finance, healthcare, and medicine. Our study focuses the impact of RAG on confidence within the medical domain under various configurations and models. We evaluate confidence by treating the model's predicted probability as its output and calculating Expected Calibration Error (ECE) and Adaptive Calibration Error (ACE) scores based on the probabilities and accuracy. In addition, we analyze whether the order of retrieved documents within prompts calibrates the confidence. Our findings reveal large variation in confidence and accuracy depending on the model, settings, and the format of input prompts. These results underscore the necessity of optimizing configurations based on the specific model and conditions.

We show that a GPT-3 model can learn to express uncertainty about its own answers in natural language -- without use of model logits. When given a question, the model generates both an answer and a level of confidence (e.g. "90% confidence" or "high confidence"). These levels map to probabilities that are well calibrated. The model also remains moderately calibrated under distribution shift, and is sensitive to uncertainty in its own answers, rather than imitating human examples. To our knowledge, this is the first time a model has been shown to express calibrated uncertainty about its own answers in natural language. For testing calibration, we introduce the CalibratedMath suite of tasks. We compare the calibration of uncertainty expressed in words ("verbalized probability") to uncertainty extracted from model logits. Both kinds of uncertainty are capable of generalizing calibration under distribution shift. We also provide evidence that GPT-3's ability to generalize calibration depends on pre-trained latent representations that correlate with epistemic uncertainty over its answers.