Daily Papers

This paper introduces an approach to predicting the next event in a soccer match, a challenge bearing remarkable similarities to the problem faced by Large Language Models (LLMs). Unlike other methods that severely limit event dynamics in soccer, often abstracting from many variables or relying on a mix of sequential models, our research proposes a novel technique inspired by the methodologies used in LLMs. These models predict a complete chain of variables that compose an event, significantly simplifying the construction of Large Event Models (LEMs) for soccer. Utilizing deep learning on the publicly available WyScout dataset, the proposed approach notably surpasses the performance of previous LEM proposals in critical areas, such as the prediction accuracy of the next event type. This paper highlights the utility of LEMs in various applications, including betting and match analytics. Moreover, we show that LEMs provide a simulation backbone on which many analytics pipelines can be built, an approach opposite to the current specialized single-purpose models. LEMs represent a pivotal advancement in soccer analytics, establishing a foundational framework for multifaceted analytics pipelines through a singular machine-learning model.

SoccerTrack v2 is a new public dataset for advancing multi-object tracking (MOT), game state reconstruction (GSR), and ball action spotting (BAS) in soccer analytics. Unlike prior datasets that use broadcast views or limited scenarios, SoccerTrack v2 provides 10 full-length, panoramic 4K recordings of university-level matches, captured with BePro cameras for complete player visibility. Each video is annotated with GSR labels (2D pitch coordinates, jersey-based player IDs, roles, teams) and BAS labels for 12 action classes (e.g., Pass, Drive, Shot). This technical report outlines the datasets structure, collection pipeline, and annotation process. SoccerTrack v2 is designed to advance research in computer vision and soccer analytics, enabling new benchmarks and practical applications in tactical analysis and automated tools.

The integration of artificial intelligence in sports analytics has transformed soccer video understanding, enabling real-time, automated insights into complex game dynamics. Traditional approaches rely on isolated data streams, limiting their effectiveness in capturing the full context of a match. To address this, we introduce SoccerChat, a multimodal conversational AI framework that integrates visual and textual data for enhanced soccer video comprehension. Leveraging the extensive SoccerNet dataset, enriched with jersey color annotations and automatic speech recognition (ASR) transcripts, SoccerChat is fine-tuned on a structured video instruction dataset to facilitate accurate game understanding, event classification, and referee decision making. We benchmark SoccerChat on action classification and referee decision-making tasks, demonstrating its performance in general soccer event comprehension while maintaining competitive accuracy in referee decision making. Our findings highlight the importance of multimodal integration in advancing soccer analytics, paving the way for more interactive and explainable AI-driven sports analysis. https://github.com/simula/SoccerChat

We present a novel framework for predicting next actions in soccer possessions by leveraging path signatures to encode their complex spatio-temporal structure. Unlike existing approaches, we do not rely on fixed historical windows and handcrafted features, but rather encode the entire recent possession, thereby avoiding the inclusion of potentially irrelevant or misleading historical information. Path signatures naturally capture the order and interaction of events, providing a mathematically grounded feature encoding for variable-length time series of irregular sampling frequencies without the necessity for manual feature engineering. Our proposed approach outperforms a transformer-based benchmark across various loss metrics and considerably reduces computational cost. Building on these results, we introduce a new possession evaluation metric based on well-established frameworks in soccer analytics, incorporating both predicted action type probabilities and action location. Our metric shows greater reliability than existing metrics in domain-specific comparisons. Finally, we validate our approach through a detailed analysis of the 2017/18 Premier League season and discuss further applications and future extensions.

Expected Goals (xG) has emerged as a popular tool for evaluating finishing skill in soccer analytics. It involves comparing a player's cumulative xG with their actual goal output, where consistent overperformance indicates strong finishing ability. However, the assessment of finishing skill in soccer using xG remains contentious due to players' difficulty in consistently outperforming their cumulative xG. In this paper, we aim to address the limitations and nuances surrounding the evaluation of finishing skill using xG statistics. Specifically, we explore three hypotheses: (1) the deviation between actual and expected goals is an inadequate metric due to the high variance of shot outcomes and limited sample sizes, (2) the inclusion of all shots in cumulative xG calculation may be inappropriate, and (3) xG models contain biases arising from interdependencies in the data that affect skill measurement. We found that sustained overperformance of cumulative xG requires both high shot volumes and exceptional finishing, including all shot types can obscure the finishing ability of proficient strikers, and that there is a persistent bias that makes the actual and expected goals closer for excellent finishers than it really is. Overall, our analysis indicates that we need more nuanced quantitative approaches for investigating a player's finishing ability, which we achieved using a technique from AI fairness to learn an xG model that is calibrated for multiple subgroups of players. As a concrete use case, we show that (1) the standard biased xG model underestimates Messi's GAX by 17% and (2) Messi's GAX is 27% higher than the typical elite high-shot-volume attacker, indicating that Messi is even a more exceptional finisher than people commonly believed.

The application of Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) technology in soccer offers numerous opportunities for sports analytics. Specifically, extracting audio commentaries with ASR provides valuable insights into the events of the game, and opens the door to several downstream applications such as automatic highlight generation. This paper presents SoccerNet-Echoes, an augmentation of the SoccerNet dataset with automatically generated transcriptions of audio commentaries from soccer game broadcasts, enhancing video content with rich layers of textual information derived from the game audio using ASR. These textual commentaries, generated using the Whisper model and translated with Google Translate, extend the usefulness of the SoccerNet dataset in diverse applications such as enhanced action spotting, automatic caption generation, and game summarization. By incorporating textual data alongside visual and auditory content, SoccerNet-Echoes aims to serve as a comprehensive resource for the development of algorithms specialized in capturing the dynamics of soccer games. We detail the methods involved in the curation of this dataset and the integration of ASR. We also highlight the implications of a multimodal approach in sports analytics, and how the enriched dataset can support diverse applications, thus broadening the scope of research and development in the field of sports analytics.

The rapid evolution of digital sports media necessitates sophisticated information retrieval systems that can efficiently parse extensive multimodal datasets. This paper introduces SoccerRAG, an innovative framework designed to harness the power of Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) and Large Language Models (LLMs) to extract soccer-related information through natural language queries. By leveraging a multimodal dataset, SoccerRAG supports dynamic querying and automatic data validation, enhancing user interaction and accessibility to sports archives. Our evaluations indicate that SoccerRAG effectively handles complex queries, offering significant improvements over traditional retrieval systems in terms of accuracy and user engagement. The results underscore the potential of using RAG and LLMs in sports analytics, paving the way for future advancements in the accessibility and real-time processing of sports data.

Quantifying sponsor visibility in sports broadcasts is a critical marketing task traditionally hindered by manual, subjective, and unscalable analysis methods. While automated systems offer an alternative, their reliance on axis-aligned Horizontal Bounding Box (HBB) leads to inaccurate exposuremetrics when logos appear rotated or skewed due to dynamic camera angles and perspective distortions. This paper introduces ExposureEngine, an end-to-end system designed for accurate, rotation-aware sponsor visibility analytics in sports broadcasts, demonstrated in a soccer case study. Our approach predicts Oriented Bounding Box (OBB) to provide a geometrically precise fit to each logo regardless of the orientation on-screen. To train and evaluate our detector, we developed a new dataset comprising 1,103 frames from Swedish elite soccer, featuring 670 unique sponsor logos annotated with OBBs. Our model achieves a mean Average Precision ([email protected]) of 0.859, with a precision of 0.96 and recall of 0.87, demonstrating robust performance in localizing logos under diverse broadcast conditions. The system integrates these detections into an analytical pipeline that calculates precise visibility metrics, such as exposure duration and on-screen coverage. Furthermore, we incorporate a language-driven agentic layer, enabling users to generate reports, summaries, and media content through natural language queries. The complete system, including the dataset and the analytics dashboard, provides a comprehensive solution for auditable and interpretable sponsor measurement in sports media. An overview of the ExposureEngine is available online: https://youtu.be/tRw6OBISuW4 .

We investigated the temporal distribution of goals in soccer using event-level data from 3,433 matches across 21 leagues and competitions. Contrary to the prevailing notion of randomness, we found that the probability of a goal being scored is higher as matches progress, and we observed fewer-than-expected goals in the early minutes of each half. Further analysis of the time between subsequent goals shows an exponential decay, indicating that most goals naturally cluster closer together in time. By splitting this distribution by the team that scores the next goal, we observe bursty goal-scoring dynamics, wherein the same team is more likely to score again shortly after its previous goal. These findings highlight the importance of match context (whether driven by fatigue, tactical adaptations, or psychological momentum) in shaping when teams are able to score. Moreover, the results open avenues for extending data-driven methods for identifying high-impact moments in a match and refining strategic decision-making in soccer's evolving analytical landscape.