The influence of human activities on streamflow reductions during the megadrought in central Chile
Ãlamos NicolÃ¡s Alvarez-Garreton MuÃ±oz GonzÃ¡lez-Reyes Ãlvaro
Abstract. SinceÂ 2010, central Chile has experienced a protracted megadrought with annual precipitation deficits ranging from 25â% to 70â%. An intensification of drought propagation has been attributed to the effect of cumulative precipitation deficits linked to catchment memory. Yet, the influence of water extractions on drought intensification is still unclear. Our study assesses climate and water use effects on streamflow reductions during a high-human-influence period (1988â2020) in four major agricultural basins. We performed this attribution by contrasting observed streamflow (driven by climate and water use) with near-natural streamflow simulations (driven mainly by climate) representing what would have occurred without water extractions. Near-natural streamflow estimations were obtained from rainfallârunoff models trained over a reference period with low human intervention (1960â1988). Annual and seasonal streamflow reductions were examined before and after the megadrought onset, and hydrological drought events were characterized for the complete evaluation period in terms of their frequency, duration, and intensity. Our results show that before the megadrought onset (1988â2009) the mean annual deficits in observed streamflow ranged between 2â% and 20â% across the study basins and that 81â% to 100â% of those deficits were explained by water extractions. During the megadrought (2010â2020), the mean annual deficits in observed streamflow were 47â% to 76â% among the basins. During this time, the relative contribution of precipitation deficits on streamflow reduction increased while the contribution of water extractions decreased, accounting for 27â% to 51â% of the streamflow reduction. Regarding drought events during the complete evaluation period, we show that human activities have amplified drought propagation, with almost double the intensity of hydrological droughts in some basins compared to those expected by precipitation deficits only. We conclude that while the primary cause of streamflow reductions during the megadrought has been the lack of precipitation, water uses have not diminished during this time, causing an exacerbation of the hydrological drought conditions and aggravating their impacts on water accessibility in rural communities and natural ecosystems.
https://www.hydrology-and-earth-system-sciences.net/favicon_copernicus_16x16_.ico
Articles | Volume 28, issue 11

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2483-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under

the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2483-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under

the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article

11 Jun 2024

Research article | | 11 Jun 2024

The influence of human activities on streamflow reductions during the megadrought in central Chile

NicolÃ¡s Ãlamos, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Ariel MuÃ±oz, and Ãlvaro GonzÃ¡lez-Reyes

NicolÃ¡s Ãlamos

Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2, FONDAP/1523A0002), Santiago, Chile

Instituto de Ciencias de la Tierra (ICT), Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile

Centro de AcciÃ³n ClimÃ¡tica, Pontificia Universidad CatÃ³lica de ValparaÃ­so, ValparaÃ­so, Chile

Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2, FONDAP/1523A0002), Santiago, Chile

Ariel MuÃ±oz

Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2, FONDAP/1523A0002), Santiago, Chile

Centro de AcciÃ³n ClimÃ¡tica, Pontificia Universidad CatÃ³lica de ValparaÃ­so, ValparaÃ­so, Chile

Laboratorio de DendrocronologÃ­a y Estudios Ambientales, Instituto de GeografÃ­a, Pontificia Universidad CatÃ³lica de ValparaÃ­so, ValparaÃ­so, Chile

Centro Regional de InvestigaciÃ³n e InnovaciÃ³n para la Sostenibilidad de la Agricultura y los Territorios Rurales, Ceres Pontificia Universidad CatÃ³lica de ValparaÃ­so (PUCV), ValparaÃ­so, Chile

Ãlvaro GonzÃ¡lez-Reyes

Instituto de Ciencias de la Tierra (ICT), Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile

Centro de Humedales rÃ­o Cruces (CEHUM), Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile

Laboratorio de DendrocronologÃ­a y Cambio Global, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile

Centro de InvestigaciÃ³n: DinÃ¡mica de Ecosistemas Marinos de Altas Latitudes â IDEAL, Valdivia, Chile

Related authors

Show only first author papers Show all papers

No articles found.

HESS Opinions: The unsustainable use of groundwater conceals a âDay Zeroâ

Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Juan Pablo Boisier, RenÃ© Garreaud, Javier GonzÃ¡lez, Roberto Rondanelli, Eugenia GayÃ³, and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1605–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1605-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1605-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

This opinion paper reflects on the risks of overusing groundwater savings to supply permanent water use requirements. Using novel data recently developed for Chile, we reveal how groundwater is being overused, causing ecological and socioeconomic impacts and concealing a Day Zero scenario. Our argument underscores the need for reformed water allocation rules and sustainable management, shifting from a perception of groundwater as an unlimited source to a finite and vital one.

On the timescale of drought indices for monitoring streamflow drought considering catchment hydrological regimes

Oscar M. Baez-Villanueva, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, Diego G. Miralles, Hylke E. Beck, Jonatan F. Siegmund, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Koen Verbist, RenÃ© Garreaud, Juan Pablo Boisier, and Mauricio Galleguillos

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1415–1439, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1415-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1415-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

Various drought indices exist, but there is no consensus on which index to use to assess streamflow droughts. This study addresses meteorological, soil moisture, and snow indices along with their temporal scales to assess streamflow drought across hydrologically diverse catchments. Using data from 100 Chilean catchments, findings suggest that there is not a single drought index that can be used for all catchments and that snow-influenced areas require drought indices with larger temporal scales.

Review article: Drought as a continuum: memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems

Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia MatanÃ³, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna MÃ¥rd, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, RenÃ© Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-421,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-421, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

Drought is a creeping phenomenon, but it is often still analysed and managed like an event without taking into consideration what happened before and after. In this paper we review the literature and discuss five cases, where drought, its impacts and responses develop differently over time. We look at the hydrological, ecological and social system and their connections. And we provide suggestions for further research and for monitoring, modelling and management.

Spatial and temporal variability of free tropospheric freezing level in Patagonia

NicolÃ¡s GarcÃ­a-Lee, Claudio Bravo, Ãlvaro GonzÃ¡les-Reyes, and Piero Mardones

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-145,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-145, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

This study analyzes the 0 °C isotherm within the free troposphere in Patagonia from 1950 to 2021, using observational and model data. The model aligns well with observations, highlighting significant altitude variations between the western and eastern sides of Andes, a correlation between isotherm fluctuations and AAO index, and an upward trend in the study area (specially in northwest Patagonia).

Panta Rhei benchmark dataset: socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts

Heidi Kreibich, Kai SchrÃ¶ter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne F. Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, AnaÃ¯s Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier FranÃ§ois, FrÃ©dÃ©ric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. GuzmÃ¡n, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, Maria Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna MÃ¥rd, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Nguyen Hong Quan, Pere Quintana-SeguÃ­, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna SÃ¶rensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana SzaliÅska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Philip J. Ward

Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2009–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, 2023

Short summary

Short summary

As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models.

Progressive water deficits during multiyear droughts in basins with long hydrological memory in Chile

Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Juan Pablo Boisier, RenÃ© Garreaud, Jan Seibert, and Marc Vis

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 429–446, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-429-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-429-2021, 2021

Short summary

Short summary

The megadrought experienced in Chile (2010–2020) has led to larger than expected water deficits. By analysing 106 basins with snow-/rainfall regimes, we relate such intensification with the hydrological memory of the basins, explained by snow and groundwater. Snow-dominated basins have larger memory and thus accumulate the effect of persistent precipitation deficits more strongly than pluvial basins. This notably affects central Chile, a water-limited region where most of the population lives.

Glacier equilibrium line altitude variations during the âLittle Ice Ageâ in the Mediterranean Andes (30â¦–37â¦ S)

Ãlvaro GonzÃ¡lez-Reyes, Claudio Bravo, Mathias Vuille, Martin Jacques-Coper, Maisa Rojas, Esteban Sagredo, and James McPhee

Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-37,https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-37, 2019

Publication in CP not foreseen

Short summary

Short summary

The "Little Ice Age" (LIA), has long been recognized as the last period when mountain glaciers recorded extensive growth intervals. In the Mediterranean Andes (MA; 30Âº–37Âº S), the LIA has been poorly documented. Here, we performed an experiment using three GCMs to force a novel glaciological model. We simulated temporal variations of the ELA to evaluate the glacier response. We propose that Pacific SST variability was the main modulator of temporal changes of the ELA in the MA region during LIA.

The CAMELS-CL dataset: catchment attributes and meteorology for large sample studies â Chile dataset

Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Pablo A. Mendoza, Juan Pablo Boisier, Nans Addor, Mauricio Galleguillos, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, Antonio Lara, CristÃ³bal Puelma, Gonzalo Cortes, Rene Garreaud, James McPhee, and Alvaro Ayala

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5817–5846, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5817-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5817-2018, 2018

Short summary

Short summary

CAMELS-CL provides a catchment dataset in Chile, including 516 catchment boundaries, hydro-meteorological time series, and 70 catchment attributes quantifying catchments' climatic, hydrological, topographic, geological, land cover and anthropic intervention features. By using CAMELS-CL, we characterise hydro-climatic regional variations, assess precipitation and potential evapotranspiration uncertainties, and analyse human intervention impacts on catchment response.

Dendrohydrology and water resources management in south-central Chile: lessons from the RÃ­o Imperial streamflow reconstruction

Alfonso FernÃ¡ndez, Ariel MuÃ±oz, Ãlvaro GonzÃ¡lez-Reyes, Isabella Aguilera-Betti, Isadora Toledo, Paulina Puchi, David Sauchyn, SebastiÃ¡n Crespo, Cristian Frene, Ignacio Mundo, Mauro GonzÃ¡lez, and Raffaele Vignola

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2921–2935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2921-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2921-2018, 2018

Short summary

Short summary

Short-term river discharge records hamper assessment of the severity of modern droughts in south-central Chile, making effective water management difficult. To support decision-making, we present a ~300-year tree-ring reconstruction of summer discharge for this region. Results show that since 1980, droughts have become more frequent and are related to a shift in large-scale climate. We argue that water managers should use this long-term view to better allocate water rights.

The 2010â2015 megadrought in central Chile: impacts on regional hydroclimate and vegetation

RenÃ© D. Garreaud, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Jonathan Barichivich, Juan Pablo Boisier, Duncan Christie, Mauricio Galleguillos, Carlos LeQuesne, James McPhee, and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6307–6327, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6307-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6307-2017, 2017

Short summary

Short summary

This work synthesizes an interdisciplinary research on the megadrought (MD) that has afflicted central Chile since 2010. Although 1- or 2-year droughts are not infrequent in this Mediterranean-like region, the ongoing dry period stands out because of its longevity and large extent, leading to unseen hydrological effects and vegetation impacts. Understanding the nature and biophysical impacts of the MD contributes to confronting a dry, warm future regional climate scenario in subtropical regions.

Improving operational flood ensemble prediction by the assimilation of satellite soil moisture: comparison between lumped and semi-distributed schemes

C. Alvarez-Garreton, D. Ryu, A. W. Western, C.-H. Su, W. T. Crow, D. E. Robertson, and C. Leahy

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1659–1676, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1659-2015,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1659-2015, 2015

Short summary

Short summary

We assimilate satellite soil moisture into a rainfall-runoff model for improving flood prediction within a data-scarce region. We argue that the spatially distributed satellite data can alleviate the model prediction limitations. We show that satellite soil moisture DA reduces the uncertainty of the streamflow ensembles. We propose new techniques for the DA scheme, including seasonal error characterisation, bias correction of the satellite retrievals, and model error representation.

Related subject area

Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches

To what extent do flood-inducing storm events change future flood hazards?

Mariam Khanam, Giulia Sofia, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3161–3190, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3161-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3161-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

Flooding worsens due to climate change, with river dynamics being a key in local flood control. Predicting post-storm geomorphic changes is challenging. Using self-organizing maps and machine learning, this study forecasts post-storm alterations in stage–discharge relationships across 3101 US stream gages. The provided framework can aid in updating hazard assessments by identifying rivers prone to change, integrating channel adjustments into flood hazard assessment.

When ancient numerical demons meet physics-informed machine learning: adjoint-based gradients for implicit differentiable modeling

Yalan Song, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Martyn P. Clark, Dapeng Feng, Kathryn Lawson, Kamlesh Sawadekar, and Chaopeng Shen

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3051–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

Differentiable models (DMs) integrate neural networks and physical equations for accuracy, interpretability, and knowledge discovery. We developed an adjoint-based DM for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) for hydrological modeling, reducing distorted fluxes and physical parameters from errors in models that use explicit and operation-splitting schemes. With a better numerical scheme and improved structure, the adjoint-based DM matches or surpasses long short-term memory (LSTM) performance.

Assessing the impact of climate change on high return levels of peak flows in Bavaria applying the CRCM5 large ensemble

Florian Willkofer, Raul R. Wood, and Ralf Ludwig

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2969–2989, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

Severe flood events pose a threat to riverine areas, yet robust estimates of the dynamics of these events in the future due to climate change are rarely available. Hence, this study uses data from a regional climate model, SMILE, to drive a high-resolution hydrological model for 98 catchments of hydrological Bavaria and exploits the large database to derive robust values for the 100-year flood events. Results indicate an increase in frequency and intensity for most catchments in the future.

Impacts of climate and land surface change on catchment evapotranspiration and runoff from 1951 to 2020 in Saxony, Germany

Maik Renner and Corina Hauffe

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2849–2869, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2849-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2849-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

Climate and land surface changes influence the partitioning of water balance components decisively. Their impact is quantified for 71 catchments in Saxony. Germany. Distinct signatures in the joint water and energy budgets are found: (i) past forest dieback caused a decrease in and subsequent recovery of evapotranspiration in the affected regions, and (ii) the recent shift towards higher aridity imposed a large decline in runoff that has not been seen in the observation records before.

Quantifying and reducing flood forecast uncertainty by the CHUP-BMA method

Zhen Cui, Shenglian Guo, Hua Chen, Dedi Liu, Yanlai Zhou, and Chong-Yu Xu

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2809–2829, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

Ensemble forecasting facilitates reliable flood forecasting and warning. This study couples the copula-based hydrologic uncertainty processor (CHUP) with Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and proposes the novel CHUP-BMA method of reducing inflow forecasting uncertainty of the Three Gorges Reservoir. The CHUP-BMA avoids the normal distribution assumption in the HUP-BMA and considers the constraint of initial conditions, which can improve the deterministic and probabilistic forecast performance.

Developing a tile drainage module for the Cold Regions Hydrological Model: lessons from a farm in southern Ontario, Canada

Mazda Kompanizare, Diogo Costa, Merrin L. Macrae, John W. Pomeroy, and Richard M. Petrone

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2785–2807, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2785-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2785-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

A new agricultural tile drainage module was developed in the Cold Region Hydrological Model platform. Tile flow and water levels are simulated by considering the effect of capillary fringe thickness, drainable water and seasonal regional groundwater dynamics. The model was applied to a small well-instrumented farm in southern Ontario, Canada, where there are concerns about the impacts of agricultural drainage into Lake Erie.

To bucket or not to bucket? Analyzing the performance and interpretability of hybrid hydrological models with dynamic parameterization

Eduardo AcuÃ±a Espinoza, Ralf Loritz, Manuel Ãlvarez Chaves, Nicole BÃ¤uerle, and Uwe Ehret

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2705–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2705-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2705-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

Hydrological hybrid models promise to merge the performance of deep learning methods with the interpretability of process-based models. One hybrid approach is the dynamic parameterization of conceptual models using long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. We explored this method to evaluate the effect of the flexibility given by LSTMs on the process-based part.

Widespread flooding dynamics under climate change: characterising floods using grid-based hydrological modelling and regional climate projections

Adam Griffin, Alison L. Kay, Paul Sayers, Victoria Bell, Elizabeth Stewart, and Sam Carr

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2635–2650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

Widespread flooding is a major problem in the UK and is greatly affected by climate change and land-use change. To look at how widespread flooding changes in the future, climate model data (UKCP18) were used with a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) across the UK, and 14 400 events were identified between two time slices: 1980–2010 and 2050–2080. There was a strong increase in the number of winter events in the future time slice and in the peak return periods.

HESS Opinions: The sword of Damocles of the impossible flood

Alberto Montanari, Bruno Merz, and GÃ¼nter BlÃ¶schl

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2603–2615, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

Floods often take communities by surprise, as they are often considered virtually impossible yet are an ever-present threat similar to the sword suspended over the head of Damocles in the classical Greek anecdote. We discuss four reasons why extremely large floods carry a risk that is often larger than expected. We provide suggestions for managing the risk of megafloods by calling for a creative exploration of hazard scenarios and communicating the unknown corners of the reality of floods.

Metamorphic testing of machine learning and conceptual hydrologic models

Peter Reichert, Kai Ma, Marvin HÃ¶ge, Fabrizio Fenicia, Marco Baity-Jesi, Dapeng Feng, and Chaopeng Shen

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2505–2529, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2505-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2505-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

We compared the predicted change in catchment outlet discharge to precipitation and temperature change for conceptual and machine learning hydrological models. We found that machine learning models, despite providing excellent fit and prediction capabilities, can be unreliable regarding the prediction of the effect of temperature change for low-elevation catchments. This indicates the need for caution when applying them for the prediction of the effect of climate change.

Elevational control of isotopic composition and application in understanding hydrologic processes in the mid Merced River catchment, Sierra Nevada, California, USA

Fengjing Liu, Martha H. Conklin, and Glenn D. Shaw

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2239–2258, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2239-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2239-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

Mountain snowpack has been declining and more precipitation falls as rain than snow. Using stable isotopes, we found flows and flow duration in Yosemite Creek are most sensitive to climate warming due to strong evaporation of waterfalls, potentially lengthening the dry-up period of waterfalls in summer and negatively affecting tourism. Groundwater recharge in Yosemite Valley is primarily from the upper snow–rain transition (2000–2500 m) and very vulnerable to a reduction in the snow–rain ratio.

Enhancing long short-term memory (LSTM)-based streamflow prediction with a spatially distributed approach

Qiutong Yu, Bryan A. Tolson, Hongren Shen, Ming Han, Juliane Mai, and Jimmy Lin

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2107–2122, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2107-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2107-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

It is challenging to incorporate input variables' spatial distribution information when implementing long short-term memory (LSTM) models for streamflow prediction. This work presents a novel hybrid modelling approach to predict streamflow while accounting for spatial variability. We evaluated the performance against lumped LSTM predictions in 224 basins across the Great Lakes region in North America. This approach shows promise for predicting streamflow in large, ungauged basin.

Broadleaf afforestation impacts on terrestrial hydrology insignificant compared to climate change in Great Britain

Marcus Buechel, Louise Slater, and Simon Dadson

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2081–2105, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2081-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2081-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

Afforestation has been proposed internationally, but the hydrological implications of such large increases in the spatial extent of woodland are not fully understood. In this study, we use a land surface model to simulate hydrology across Great Britain with realistic afforestation scenarios and potential climate changes. Countrywide afforestation minimally influences hydrology, when compared to climate change, and reduces low streamflow whilst not lowering the highest flows.

Impacts of spatiotemporal resolutions of precipitation on flood event simulation based on multimodel structures â a case study over the Xiang River basin in China

Qian Zhu, Xiaodong Qin, Dongyang Zhou, Tiantian Yang, and Xinyi Song

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1665–1686, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1665-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1665-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

Input data, model and calibration strategy can affect the accuracy of flood event simulation and prediction. Satellite-based precipitation with different spatiotemporal resolutions is an important input source. Data-driven models are sometimes proven to be more accurate than hydrological models. Event-based calibration and conventional strategy are two options adopted for flood simulation. This study targets the three concerns for accurate flood event simulation and prediction.

A network approach for multiscale catchment classification using traits

Fabio Ciulla and Charuleka Varadharajan

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1617–1651, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1617-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1617-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

We present a new method based on network science for unsupervised classification of large datasets and apply it to classify 9067 US catchments and 274 biophysical traits at multiple scales. We find that our trait-based approach produces catchment classes with distinct streamflow behavior and that spatial patterns emerge amongst pristine and human-impacted catchments. This method can be widely used beyond hydrology to identify patterns, reduce trait redundancy, and select representative sites.

Multi-model approach in a variable spatial framework for streamflow simulation

Cyril ThÃ©bault, Charles Perrin, Vazken AndrÃ©assian, Guillaume Thirel, SÃ©bastien Legrand, and Olivier Delaigue

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1539–1566, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1539-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1539-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

Streamflow forecasting is useful for many applications, ranging from population safety (e.g. floods) to water resource management (e.g. agriculture or hydropower). To this end, hydrological models must be optimized. However, a model is inherently wrong. This study aims to analyse the contribution of a multi-model approach within a variable spatial framework to improve streamflow simulations. The underlying idea is to take advantage of the strength of each modelling framework tested.

Advancing understanding of lakeâwatershed hydrology: a fully coupled numerical model illustrated by Qinghai Lake

Lele Shu, Xiaodong Li, Yan Chang, Xianhong Meng, Hao Chen, Yuan Qi, Hongwei Wang, Zhaoguo Li, and Shihua Lyu

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1477–1491, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1477-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1477-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

We developed a new model to better understand how water moves in a lake basin. Our model improves upon previous methods by accurately capturing the complexity of water movement, both on the surface and subsurface. Our model, tested using data from China's Qinghai Lake, accurately replicates complex water movements and identifies contributing factors of the lake's water balance. The findings provide a robust tool for predicting hydrological processes, aiding water resource planning.

HESS Opinions: A few camels or a whole caravan?

Franziska Maria Clerc-Schwarzenbach, Giovanni Selleri, Mattia Neri, Elena Toth, Ilja van Meerveld, and Jan Seibert

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-864,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-864, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

We compare the catchment forcing data provided in large-sample datasets, namely the Caravan dataset and three of the original CAMELS datasets (US, BR, GB). We show that the differences affect hydrological model performance and that the data quality in the Caravan dataset is lower than the one in the CAMELS datasets, both for precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. We want to raise awareness of the lower data quality in Caravan and we suggest possible improvements for the Caravan dataset.

Technical note: Testing the connection between hillslope-scale runoff fluctuations and streamflow hydrographs at the outlet of large river basins

Ricardo Mantilla, Morgan Fonley, and NicolÃ¡s VelÃ¡squez

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1373–1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1373-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1373-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

Hydrologists strive to “Be right for the right reasons” when modeling the hydrologic cycle; however, the datasets available to validate hydrological models are sparse, and in many cases, they comprise streamflow observations at the outlets of large catchments. In this work, we show that matching streamflow observations at the outlet of a large basin is not a reliable indicator of a correct description of the small-scale runoff processes.

Empirical stream thermal sensitivity cluster on the landscape according to geology and climate

Lillian M. McGill, E. Ashley Steel, and Aimee H. Fullerton

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1351–1371, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1351-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1351-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

This study examines the relationship between air and river temperatures in Washington's Snoqualmie and Wenatchee basins. We used classification and regression approaches to show that the sensitivity of river temperature to air temperature is variable across basins and controlled largely by geology and snowmelt. Findings can be used to inform strategies for river basin restoration and conservation, such as identifying climate-insensitive areas of the basin that should be preserved and protected.

Deep learning for monthly rainfallârunoff modelling: a large-sample comparison with conceptual models across Australia

Stephanie R. Clark, Julien Lerat, Jean-Michel Perraud, and Peter Fitch

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1191–1213, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1191-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1191-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

To determine if deep learning models are in general a viable alternative to traditional hydrologic modelling techniques in Australian catchments, a comparison of river–runoff predictions is made between traditional conceptual models and deep learning models in almost 500 catchments spread over the continent. It is found that the deep learning models match or outperform the traditional models in over two-thirds of the river catchments, indicating feasibility in a wide variety of conditions.

Comment on “Are soils overrated in hydrology?” by Gao et al. (2023)

Ying Zhao, Mehdi Rahmati, Harry Vereecken, and Dani Or

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-629,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-629, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

Gao et al. (2023) question the importance of soil in hydrology, sparking debate. We acknowledge some valid points but critique their broad, unsubstantiated views on soil's role. Our response highlights three key areas: (1) the false divide between ecosystem-centric and soil-centric approaches, (2) the vital yet varied impact of soil properties, and (3) the call for a scale-aware framework. We aim to unify these perspectives, enhancing hydrology's comprehensive understanding.

On optimization of calibrations of a distributed hydrological model with spatially distributed information on snow

Dipti Tiwari, MÃ©lanie Trudel, and Robert Leconte

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1127–1146, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1127-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1127-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

Calibrating hydrological models with multi-objective functions enhances model robustness. By using spatially distributed snow information in the calibration, the model performance can be enhanced without compromising the outputs. In this study the HYDROTEL model was calibrated in seven different experiments, incorporating the SPAEF (spatial efficiency) metric alongside Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE), with the aim of identifying the optimal calibration strategy.

Multi-decadal fluctuations in root zone storage capacity through vegetation adaptation to hydro-climatic variability has minor effects on the hydrological response in the Neckar basin, Germany

Siyuan Wang, Markus Hrachowitz, and Gerrit Schoups

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-62,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-62, 2024

Revised manuscript accepted for HESS

Short summary

Short summary

Root zone storage capacity (Sumax) significantly changes over multiple decades reflecting vegetation adaptation to climatic variability. However, this temporal evolution of Sumax cannot explain long-term fluctuations in the partitioning of water fluxes as expressed by deviations ΔIE from the parametric Budyko curve over time with different climatic conditions and it does not have any significant effects on shorter-term hydrological response characteristics of the upper Neckar catchment.

Toward interpretable LSTM-based modeling of hydrological systems

Luis Andres De la Fuente, Mohammad Reza Ehsani, Hoshin Vijai Gupta, and Laura Elizabeth Condon

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 945–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-945-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-945-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

Long short-term memory (LSTM) is a widely used machine-learning model in hydrology, but it is difficult to extract knowledge from it. We propose HydroLSTM, which represents processes like a hydrological reservoir. Models based on HydroLSTM perform similarly to LSTM while requiring fewer cell states. The learned parameters are informative about the dominant hydrology of a catchment. Our results show how parsimony and hydrological knowledge extraction can be achieved by using the new structure.

Flow intermittence prediction using a hybrid hydrological modelling approach: influence of observed intermittence data on the training of a random forest model

Louise Mimeau, Annika KÃ¼nne, Flora Branger, Sven Kralisch, Alexandre Devers, and Jean-Philippe Vidal

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 851–871, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-851-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-851-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

Modelling flow intermittence is essential for predicting the future evolution of drying in river networks and better understanding the ecological and socio-economic impacts. However, modelling flow intermittence is challenging, and observed data on temporary rivers are scarce. This study presents a new modelling approach for predicting flow intermittence in river networks and shows that combining different sources of observed data reduces the model uncertainty.

What controls the tail behaviour of flood series: rainfall or runoff generation?

Elena Macdonald, Bruno Merz, BjÃ¶rn Guse, Viet Dung Nguyen, Xiaoxiang Guan, and Sergiy Vorogushyn

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 833–850, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-833-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-833-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

In some rivers, the occurrence of extreme flood events is more likely than in other rivers – they have heavy-tailed distributions. We find that threshold processes in the runoff generation lead to such a relatively high occurrence probability of extremes. Further, we find that beyond a certain return period, i.e. for rare events, rainfall is often the dominant control compared to runoff generation. Our results can help to improve the estimation of the occurrence probability of extreme floods.

Seasonal prediction of end-of-dry-season watershed behavior in a highly interconnected alluvial watershed in northern California

Claire Kouba and Thomas Harter

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 691–718, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-691-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-691-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

In some watersheds, the severity of the dry season has a large impact on aquatic ecosystems. In this study, we design a way to predict, 5–6 months in advance, how severe the dry season will be in a rural watershed in northern California. This early warning can support seasonal adaptive management. To predict these two values, we assess data about snow, rain, groundwater, and river flows. We find that maximum snowpack and total wet season rainfall best predict dry season severity.

Glaciers determine the sensitivity of hydrological processes to perturbed climate in a large mountainous basin on the Tibetan Plateau

Yi Nan and Fuqiang Tian

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 669–689, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-669-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-669-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

This paper utilized a tracer-aided model validated by multiple datasets in a large mountainous basin on the Tibetan Plateau to analyze hydrological sensitivity to climate change. The spatial pattern of the local hydrological sensitivities and the influence factors were analyzed in particular. The main finding of this paper is that the local hydrological sensitivity in mountainous basins is determined by the relationship between the glacier area ratio and the mean annual precipitation.

Leveraging gauge networks and strategic discharge measurements to aid the development of continuous streamflow records

Michael J. Vlah, Matthew R. V. Ross, Spencer Rhea, and Emily S. Bernhardt

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 545–573, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-545-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-545-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

Virtual stream gauging enables continuous streamflow estimation where a gauge might be difficult or impractical to install. We reconstructed flow at 27 gauges of the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), informing ~199 site-months of missing data in the official record and improving that accuracy of official estimates at 11 sites. This study shows that machine learning, but also routine regression methods, can be used to supplement existing gauge networks and reduce monitoring costs.

On the need for physical constraints in deep learning rainfallârunoff projections under climate change: a sensitivity analysis to warming and shifts in potential evapotranspiration

Sungwook Wi and Scott Steinschneider

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 479–503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-479-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-479-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

We investigate whether deep learning (DL) models can produce physically plausible streamflow projections under climate change. We address this question by focusing on modeled responses to increases in temperature and potential evapotranspiration and by employing three DL and three process-based hydrological models. The results suggest that physical constraints regarding model architecture and input are necessary to promote the physical realism of DL hydrological projections under climate change.

Evaluation of hydrological models on small mountainous catchments: impact of the meteorological forcings

Guillaume Evin, Matthieu Le Lay, Catherine Fouchier, David Penot, Francois Colleoni, Alexandre Mas, Pierre-AndrÃ© Garambois, and Olivier Laurantin

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 261–281, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-261-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-261-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

Hydrological modelling of mountainous catchments is challenging for many reasons, the main one being the temporal and spatial representation of precipitation forcings. This study presents an evaluation of the hydrological modelling of 55 small mountainous catchments of the northern French Alps, focusing on the influence of the type of precipitation reanalyses used as inputs. These evaluations emphasize the added value of radar measurements, in particular for the reproduction of flood events.

HESS Opinions: Never train an LSTM on a single basin

Frederik Kratzert, Martin Gauch, Daniel Klotz, and Grey Nearing

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-275,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-275, 2024

Revised manuscript accepted for HESS

Short summary

Short summary

Recently, a special type of neural network architecture became increasingly popular in hydrology literature. However, in most applications, this model was applied as a one-to-one replacement for hydrology models without adapting or rethinking the experimental setup. In this opinion paper, we show how this is almost always a bad decision and how using these kinds of models require the use of large-sample hydrology datasets.

Projecting sediment export from two highly glacierized alpine catchments under climate change: exploring non-parametric regression as an analysis tool

Lena Katharina Schmidt, Till Francke, Peter Martin Grosse, and Axel Bronstert

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 139–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-139-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-139-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

How suspended sediment export from glacierized high-alpine areas responds to future climate change is hardly assessable as many interacting processes are involved, and appropriate physical models are lacking. We present the first study, to our knowledge, exploring machine learning to project sediment export until 2100 in two high-alpine catchments. We find that uncertainties due to methodological limitations are small until 2070. Negative trends imply that peak sediment may have already passed.

Simulation-Based Inference for Parameter Estimation of Complex Watershed Simulators

Robert Hull, Elena Leonarduzzi, Luis De La Fuente, Hoang Viet Tran, Andrew Bennett, Peter Melchior, Reed M. Maxwell, and Laura E. Condon

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-264,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-264, 2024

Revised manuscript accepted for HESS

Short summary

Short summary

Large-scale hydrologic a needed tool to explore complex watershed processes and how they may evolve under a changing climate. However, calibrating them can be difficult because they are costly to run and have many unknown parameters. We implement a state-of-the-art approach to model calibration with a set of experiments in the Upper Colorado River Basin.

Evolution of river regime in the Mekong River basin over eight decades and role of dams in recent hydrologic extremes

Huy Dang and Yadu Pokhrel

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3158,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3158, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

By examining basin-wide simulations of the river regime over 83 years with and without dams, we present evidence that climate variation was a key driver of hydrologic variabilities in the Mekong River Basin (MRB) over the long-term; however, dams have largely altered the seasonality of Mekong’s flow regime and annual flooding patterns at major downstream areas in recent years. These findings could help rethink the planning of future dams and water resource management in the MRB.

A framework for parameter estimation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty analysis for holistic hydrologic modeling using SWAT+

Salam A. Abbas, Ryan T. Bailey, Jeremy T. White, Jeffrey G. Arnold, Michael J. White, Natalja Äerkasova, and Jungang Gao

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 21–48, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-21-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-21-2024, 2024

Short summary

Short summary

Research highlights.

1. Implemented groundwater module (gwflow) into SWAT+ for four watersheds with different unique hydrologic features across the United States.

2. Presented methods for sensitivity analysis, uncertainty analysis and parameter estimation for coupled models.

3. Sensitivity analysis for streamflow and groundwater head conducted using Morris method.

4. Uncertainty analysis and parameter estimation performed using an iterative ensemble smoother within the PEST framework.

On understanding mountainous carbonate basins of the Mediterranean using parsimonious modeling solutions

Shima Azimi, Christian Massari, Giuseppe Formetta, Silvia Barbetta, Alberto Tazioli, Davide Fronzi, Sara Modanesi, Angelica Tarpanelli, and Riccardo Rigon

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4485–4503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4485-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4485-2023, 2023

Short summary

Short summary

We analyzed the water budget of nested karst catchments using simple methods and modeling. By utilizing the available data on precipitation and discharge, we were able to determine the response lag-time by adopting new techniques. Additionally, we modeled snow cover dynamics and evapotranspiration with the use of Earth observations, providing a concise overview of the water budget for the basin and its subbasins. We have made the data, models, and workflows accessible for further study.

Comparing quantile regression forest and mixture density long short-term memory models for probabilistic post-processing of satellite precipitation-driven streamflow simulations

Yuhang Zhang, Aizhong Ye, Bita Analui, Phu Nguyen, Soroosh Sorooshian, Kuolin Hsu, and Yuxuan Wang

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4529–4550, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4529-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4529-2023, 2023

Short summary

Short summary

Our study shows that while the quantile regression forest (QRF) and countable mixtures of asymmetric Laplacians long short-term memory (CMAL-LSTM) models demonstrate similar proficiency in multipoint probabilistic predictions, QRF excels in smaller watersheds and CMAL-LSTM in larger ones. CMAL-LSTM performs better in single-point deterministic predictions, whereas QRF model is more efficient overall.

Projected future changes in cryosphere and hydrology of a mountainous catchment in the Upper Heihe River, China

Zehua Chang, Hongkai Gao, Leilei Yong, Kang Wang, Rensheng Chen, Chuntan Han, Otgonbayar Demberel, Batsuren Dorjsuren, Shugui Hou, and Zheng Duan

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3043,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3043, 2023

Short summary

Short summary

An integrated cryospheric-hydrologic model, FLEX-Cryo, was developed, considered glaciers, snow cover, frozen soil, and their dynamic impacts on hydrology. We utilized the model to simulate the future changes in cryosphere and hydrology in Hulu catchment. Our projections showed that the two glaciers will melt out around 2050; snow cover will reduce; and permafrost will degrade. For hydrology, runoff will decrease after glacier melt out; and permafrost degradation will increase baseflow.

Recent ground thermo-hydrological changes in a southern Tibetan endorheic catchment and implications for lake level changes

LÃ©o C. P. Martin, Sebastian Westermann, Michele Magni, Fanny Brun, Joel Fiddes, Yanbin Lei, Philip Kraaijenbrink, Tamara Mathys, Moritz Langer, Simon Allen, and Walter W. Immerzeel

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4409–4436, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4409-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4409-2023, 2023

Short summary

Short summary

Across the Tibetan Plateau, many large lakes have been changing level during the last decades as a response to climate change. In high-mountain environments, water fluxes from the land to the lakes are linked to the ground temperature of the land and to the energy fluxes between the ground and the atmosphere, which are modified by climate change. With a numerical model, we test how these water and energy fluxes have changed over the last decades and how they influence the lake level variations.

Towards robust seasonal streamflow forecasts in mountainous catchments: impact of calibration metric selection in hydrological modeling

Diego Araya, Pablo A. Mendoza, Eduardo MuÃ±oz-Castro, and James McPhee

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4385–4408, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4385-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4385-2023, 2023

Short summary

Short summary

Dynamical systems are used by many agencies worldwide to produce seasonal streamflow forecasts, which are critical for decision-making. Such systems rely on hydrology models, which contain parameters that are typically estimated using a target performance metric (i.e., objective function). This study explores the effects of this decision across mountainous basins in Chile, illustrating tradeoffs between seasonal forecast quality and the models' capability to simulate streamflow characteristics.

Modelling flood frequency and magnitude in a glacially conditioned, heterogeneous landscape: testing the importance of land cover and land use

Pamela E. Tetford and Joseph R. Desloges

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3977–3998, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3977-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3977-2023, 2023

Short summary

Short summary

An efficient regional flood frequency model relates drainage area to discharge, with a major assumption of similar basin conditions. In a landscape with variable glacial deposits and land use, we characterize varying hydrological function using 28 explanatory variables. We demonstrate that (1) a heterogeneous landscape requires objective model selection criteria to optimize the fit of flow data, and (2) incorporating land use as a predictor variable improves the drainage area to discharge model.

Direct integration of reservoirs' operations in a hydrological model for streamflow estimation: coupling a CLSTM model with MOHID-Land

Ana Ramos Oliveira, Tiago Brito Ramos, LÃ­gia Pinto, and Ramiro Neves

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3875–3893, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3875-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3875-2023, 2023

Short summary

Short summary

This paper intends to demonstrate the adequacy of a hybrid solution to overcome the difficulties related to the incorporation of human behavior when modeling hydrological processes. Two models were implemented, one to estimate the outflow of a reservoir and the other to simulate the hydrological processes of the watershed. With both models feeding each other, results show that the proposed approach significantly improved the streamflow estimation downstream of the reservoir.

Skill of seasonal flow forecasts at catchment-scale: an assessment across South Korea

Yongshin Lee, Francesca Pianosi, Andres PeÃ±uela, and Miguel Angel Rico-Ramirez

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2169,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2169, 2023

Short summary

Short summary

Following recent advancements in weather prediction technology, we explored how seasonal weather forecasts (one or more months ahead) could benefit practical water management in South Korea. Our findings highlight that using seasonal weather forecasts for predicting flow patterns 1 to 3 months ahead is effective, especially during dry years. This suggest that seasonal weather forecasts can be helpful in improving the management of water resources.

Modelling the regional sensitivity of snowmelt, soil moisture, and streamflow generation to climate over the Canadian Prairies using a basin classification approach

Zhihua He, Kevin Shook, Christopher Spence, John W. Pomeroy, and Colin Whitfield

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3525–3546, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3525-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3525-2023, 2023

Short summary

Short summary

This study evaluated the impacts of climate change on snowmelt, soil moisture, and streamflow over the Canadian Prairies. The entire prairie region was divided into seven basin types. We found strong variations of hydrological sensitivity to precipitation and temperature changes in different land covers and basins, which suggests that different water management and adaptation methods are needed to address enhanced water stress due to expected climate change in different regions of the prairies.

To what extent does river routing matter in hydrological modeling?

NicolÃ¡s CortÃ©s-Salazar, NicolÃ¡s VÃ¡squez, Naoki Mizukami, Pablo A. Mendoza, and Ximena Vargas

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3505–3524, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3505-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3505-2023, 2023

Short summary

Short summary

This paper shows how important river models can be for water resource applications that involve hydrological models and, in particular, parameter calibration. To this end, we conduct numerical experiments in a pilot basin using a combination of hydrologic model simulations obtained from a large sample of parameter sets and different routing methods. We find that routing can affect streamflow simulations, even at monthly time steps; the choice of parameters; and relevant streamflow metrics.

Calibrating macroscale hydrological models in poorly gauged and heavily regulated basins

Dung Trung Vu, Thanh Duc Dang, Francesca Pianosi, and Stefano Galelli

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3485–3504, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3485-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3485-2023, 2023

Short summary

Short summary

The calibration of hydrological models over extensive spatial domains is often challenged by the lack of data on river discharge and the operations of hydraulic infrastructures. Here, we use satellite data to address the lack of data that could unintentionally bias the calibration process. Our study is underpinned by a computational framework that quantifies this bias and provides a safe approach to the calibration of models in poorly gauged and heavily regulated basins.

An advanced tool integrating failure and sensitivity analysis into novel modeling of the stormwater flood volume

Francesco Fatone, Bartosz SzelÄ g, PrzemysÅaw Kowal, Arthur McGarity, Adam Kiczko, Grzegorz WaÅek, Ewa Wojciechowska, MichaÅ Stachura, and Nicolas Caradot

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3329–3349, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3329-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3329-2023, 2023

Short summary

Short summary

A novel methodology for the development of a stormwater network performance simulator including advanced risk assessment was proposed. The applied tool enables the analysis of the influence of spatial variability in catchment and stormwater network characteristics on the relation between (SWMM) model parameters and specific flood volume, as an alternative approach to mechanistic models. The proposed method can be used at the stage of catchment model development and spatial planning management.

airGRteaching: an open-source tool for teaching hydrological modeling withÂ R

Olivier Delaigue, Pierre Brigode, Guillaume Thirel, and Laurent Coron

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3293–3327, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3293-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3293-2023, 2023

Short summary

Short summary

Teaching hydrological modeling is an important, but difficult, matter. It requires appropriate tools and teaching material. In this article, we present the airGRteaching package, which is an open-source software tool relying on widely used hydrological models. This tool proposes an interface and numerous hydrological modeling exercises representing a wide range of hydrological applications. We show how this tool can be applied to simple but real-life cases.

Cited articles