GLOBAL FORCED MIGRATION THE POLITICAL CRISIS OF OUR TIME
[Senate Prints 116-48] [From the U.S. Government Publishing Office] 116th Congress } { S. Prt. COMMITTEE PRINT 2d Session } { 116-48 _______________________________________________________________________ GLOBAL FORCED MIGRATION THE POLITICAL CRISIS OF OUR TIME __________ A MINORITY STAFF REPORT PREPARED FOR THE USE OF THE COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS UNITED STATES SENATE One Hundred Sixteenth Congress SECOND SESSION June 18, 2020 [GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] Printed for the use of the Committee on Foreign Relations Available via World Wide Web: http://www.govinfo.gov ______ U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE 41-888 PDF WASHINGTON : 2020 COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS JAMES E. RISCH, Idaho, Chairman MARCO RUBIO, Florida ROBERT MENENDEZ, New Jersey RON JOHNSON, Wisconsin BENJAMIN L. CARDIN, Maryland CORY GARDNER, Colorado JEANNE SHAHEEN, New Hampshire MITT ROMNEY, Utah CHRISTOPHER A. COONS, Delaware LINDSEY GRAHAM, South Carolina TOM UDALL, New Mexico JOHN BARRASSO, Wyoming CHRISTOPHER MURPHY, Connecticut ROB PORTMAN, Ohio TIM KAINE, Virginia RAND PAUL, Kentucky EDWARD J. MARKEY, Massachusetts TODD YOUNG, Indiana JEFF MERKLEY, Oregon TED CRUZ, Texas CORY A. BOOKER, New Jersey DAVID PERDUE, Georgia Christopher M. Socha, Staff Director Jessica Lewis, Democratic Staff Director John Dutton, Chief Clerk (ii) C O N T E N T S ---------- Page Letter of Transmittal............................................ v Executive Summary................................................ 1 Chapter One--The Scale of Today's Forced Migration Crisis........ 13 Chapter Two--Trends in Forced Migration.......................... 17 Why More People Are Fleeing: The Changing Nature of Conflict and Violence............................................... 17 Climate Change's Impact on Forced Migration.................. 24 Internally Displaced Persons Under-Recognized................ 27 New Challenges for Forced Migrants........................... 29 Chapter Three--Human Rights Denied............................... 33 Pervasive Restrictions on Freedom of Movement................ 33 Obstacles to Accessing Identity Documentation................ 34 Barriers for Accessing Healthcare and Education.............. 36 Widespread Lack of Livelihood Opportunities and Barriers to Work....................................................... 39 Gender-Based Violence: An Under-Recognized Risk.............. 42 High Risks of Human Trafficking.............................. 45 Chapter Four--Inadequate and Inconsistent International Responses 49 Diplomatic Deficit Resulting in Persistent Conflicts and Impunity................................................... 50 Insufficient and Inflexible Humanitarian Funding............. 51 Aid Effectiveness and Humanitarian Sector Reform............. 53 Need for Expanded International Legal Protections............ 55 Shrinking Access to Traditional Solutions.................... 63 Inconsistent Country-level Responses to Forced Migration..... 66 Chapter Five--The Trump Administration's Domestic Agenda: Blocking All Pathways to Refuge................................ 73 The Trump Administration's Decimation of Existing Programs... 74 The Impact of Trump Administration Policies at the U.S. Border..................................................... 85 The Positive Contributions of Refugees and Immigrants in the United States.............................................. 97 Damage to U.S. Military Interests............................ 100 Chapter Six--The Trump Administration's Global Retreat from Forced Migration............................................... 103 Repeated Attempts to Cut U.S. Humanitarian Assistance Funding 103 Withdrawal from International Fora........................... 106 The International Implications of the Administration's Retreat.................................................... 109 (iii) Chapter Seven--Current Innovative Efforts........................ 117 New Compacts to Improve International Coordination & Response 117 Innovative Models of Financial Assistance.................... 119 The Compact Model............................................ 122 Solutions to Better Serve Forced Migrants.................... 124 Incorporating Technology..................................... 128 Increasing Private Sector Participation...................... 132 Findings & Recommendations....................................... 137 Findings..................................................... 137 Recommendations.............................................. 140 Acronyms & Initialisms........................................... 147 LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL ---------- United States Senate, Committee on Foreign Relations, Washington, DC, June 18, 2020. Dear Colleagues: The United States must revive its global and moral leadership to address the urgent plight of millions of people forced to flee their homes due to conflict, violence, persecution, and severe climate-related events. This global forced migration crisis is one of the most profound and least understood challenges of our time. More than ever before, conflict and violence are driving people from their homes and forcing them to live decades in displacement. Warring parties are consistently ignoring humanitarian laws designed to protect civilians during conflict, leading to civilian casualties, the destruction of critical infrastructure, and mass displacement. Other drivers of forced migration, including generalized violence and severe climate-related events, such as droughts, flooding, extreme weather, and rising sea levels, show no signs of abating. Meanwhile, the global response has not kept pace with the enormity of need. The international community and national authorities have failed to address these causes of displacement. International organizations and host countries are struggling to protect and facilitate solutions for a growing population of forced migrants. More than ever before, U.S. leadership is needed to foster and catalyze a global coalition to address this crisis. Since its founding, the United States has offered freedom and opportunity to people around the world fleeing danger. Our history of welcoming desperate people with open arms--from European Jews following World War II to Indochinese boat people to Kosovar victims of ethnic cleansing--has reinforced our reputation as a place of refuge. Many of those who originally came to the United States seeking protection have gone on to become shining beacons for our nation--artists, innovators, public servants, and even representatives of the U.S. government. The Trump administration, however, has departed sharply from this historical precedent, abdicating U.S. leadership and undermining a global response. Available legal pathways for asylum, refugee resettlement, and protection in the United States have been severed. Refugees from Muslim- majority countries, including those fleeing atrocities in Syria, have been barred. Small children have been forcibly separated from their families and held in detention centers. Migrants fleeing violence and threats to their lives have been returned by the United States to dangerous border encampments in Mexico, waiting for decisions on their applications for months or even years. (v) Given this challenging landscape, I directed my senior Senate Foreign Relations Committee (SFRC) staff member for Migration & Human Rights, Charlotte Oldham-Moore, and SFRC Democratic Staff to prepare a comprehensive report on the global forced migration crisis. In conducting research for this report, SFRC Democratic Staff interviewed dozens of migration and humanitarian experts, analyzed key documents and reports, and carried out research trips to Colombia, Tunisia, Egypt, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Ethiopia, meeting with U.S. and national, provincial, and municipal government officials, United Nations and international nongovernmental organization representatives, as well as forced migrants and their host communities. I also want to thank Marisa Lowe, Judith Williams, and the SFRC Democratic Staff for their work on this report. The result of this research is a comprehensive report that lays bare the facts of today's global forced migration crisis, the drivers of displacement, the trends impacting the situations of forced migrants, the international community's response, and the Trump administration's retreat. It describes a global forced migration crisis that is, at its crux, a political crisis requiring political solutions to confront the drivers of forced migration, as well as address the large numbers living in displacement. This report makes the case for urgent and sweeping action on the global forced migration crisis and argues the need for the United States to make a dramatic course correction in leading this global response. The report also makes timely recommendations for Congress, the Executive Branch, the United Nations, and other stakeholders to improve policies on forced migration. Today, there must be a bipartisan sense of urgency for renewed U.S. efforts to reform our domestic policies and international engagement relating to migration. Ignoring the plight of millions of forced migrants worldwide will only ensure that our future--the world's and the United States'-- will be far less secure and far bleaker. As the world grapples with global crisis, we must come together in global solidarity and remember those among us who have experienced the utmost dangers and require protection. Sincerely, Robert Menendez, Ranking Member. [GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] A young Afghan girl waits to receive assistance at her returnee and refugee village on the outskirts of Farah City in western Afghanistan. Lt. j.g. Matthew Stroup, 130209-N-LR347-329, U.S. Navy, Feb. 9, 2013. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ---------- A girl born in a refugee camp lives her whole life in a temporary shelter, waiting to return home to a community she has never known, a community repeatedly ravaged by war. A farmer leaves his village when insurgents arrive, then searches and fails to find shelter, water, and food. He is told to return home and is then displaced again by conflict, cycling back and forth in continuous, destitute movement. A nurse, terrorized by gang violence outside her home and domestic violence inside her home, fears for her and her daughter's lives and leaves. They are turned away at the border, forced to wait, living in perilous tent encampments on the border, and finally deported back to danger. A fisherman is forced from their coastal community due to rising sea levels--they are no longer able to find sufficient potable water for their family to drink. They move to an urban slum to live amongst thousands of others who have suffered the same plight. A local official is forced to leave her island after tropical storm after tropical storm forces her to come to terms with the fact that her home is no longer inhabitable. She struggles to not only find somewhere for herself and her family, but for her whole island's population--now forced to flee. No one is willing to provide them safe haven. The rich countries have closed their borders and erected walls that thousands of individuals attempt to circumvent daily. The poorer countries are inundated, less stable, and unable to provide services or safety. Thousands die each year attempting to find some place that will accept them. Millions are subjected to violence and abuse. Millions of children go uneducated. These are the stories of forced migrants today. The exponentially increasing number of men, women, and children forced from their homes due to conflict, persecution, and severe climate-related weather events is one of the most profound and least understood challenges facing the world. Despite the global upheaval this crisis presents, too few political leaders, policymakers, and members of the public are aware of the facts. By the end of 2018, 70.8 million people were forcibly displaced across the world, including 25.9 million refugees, 41.3 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), and 3.5 million asylum seekers.\1\ These figures may not include, however, forced migrants who are not recognized under the 1951 Refugee Convention and its accompanying international legal framework, such as those fleeing generalized violence or severe climate-related events. The forced migrant crisis will continue to swell as existing conflicts continue, new conflicts arise, and the impacts of climate change spur new conflicts, render communities uninhabitable, and cause severe weather events. In the absence of swift, effective action, the number of forced migrants could climb to more than 300 million over the next decade--a population nearly equal to that of the entire United States.\2\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \1\ United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2018, at 2, 65-66, 68-69 (June 2019). This number also includes 25.9 million refugees and 3.5 million asylum- seekers. Id. Frances Nicholson & Judith Kumin, A Guide to International Refugee Protection and Building State Asylum Systems, Inter- Parliamentary Union and UNHCR, at 11, 16 (2017). \2\ Erol K. Yayboke & Aaron N. Milner, Confronting the Global Forced Migration Crisis: A Report of the CSIS Task Force on the Global Forced Migration Crisis, Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), at 33 (May 2018). Yayboke & Miller (2018) projections based on extrapolations from trends found in UNHCR, Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2016 (June 19, 2017); U.S. Census Bureau, ``World and Population Clock,'' https://www.census.gov/popclock/ (last visited June 9, 2020). --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Faced with the magnitude of today's global forced migration crisis, many countries, including the United States, have chosen to turn their backs on these desperate and resilient people. The loss of support from key world leaders has dealt a startling blow to an international community already struggling to address the drivers of forced migration, and to protect and find permanent solutions for forced migrants. Without a significant course correction towards robust U.S. leadership and an engaged international community, the global forced migration challenges we face today will compound in coming decades. If we fail to act, the crisis will not only pose serious risks to the many million forced migrant lives at stake, but will inevitably challenge global stability, economic growth, and U.S. national security. Today's forced migration crisis is driven by several factors, including increasingly frequent and intense conflict, as well as climate change. From 2013 to 2018, the number of active conflicts worldwide increased by 53 percent from 34 to 52 conflicts.\3\ As of 2013, the average length of conflict was 37 years.\4\ State and non-state actors alike are more blatantly violating international humanitarian law and deliberately targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure, such as medical facilities and schools.\5\ In 2018, a record- breaking 12,000-plus children were killed or maimed by conflict.\6\ Nearly 31 million children were displaced at the end of 2017.\7\ Furthermore, the effects of climate change, including more frequent and severe natural disasters, are increasingly forcing people to flee their homes.\8\ In 2016, 24 million people were newly displaced due to sudden-onset natural disasters--outnumbering new displacement associated with conflict and violence by 3 to 1.\9\ Unfortunately, there is no clear end or reversal in sight for any of these trends. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \3\ Scott Gates et al., Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946-2014, Peace Research Institute Oslo, at 2 (2016). Harvard Strand et al., Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946-2018, Peace Research Institute Oslo, at 2 (2019). \4\ Christina Bennett et al., Time to Let Go: Remaking Humanitarian Action for the Modern Era, Overseas Development Institute, at 29 (Apr. 2016). \5\ David Miliband, President and CEO, International Rescue Committee, ``Welcome to the Age of Impunity,'' Remarks at the World Economic Forum, Davos, Switzerland, Jan. 24, 2020. \6\ United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA), Global Humanitarian Overview 2020, at 11 (Dec. 2019). \7\ United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), Data: Child Displacement, https://data.unicef.org/topic/child-migration-and- displacement/displacement/ (last visited Apr. 13, 2020). \8\ United States Geological Survey, ``How Can Climate Change Affect Natural Disasters?,'' https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/how-can-climate- change-affect-natural-disasters-1?qt-news--science--products=0#qt- news--science--products (last visited Apr. 13, 2020). \9\ Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, ``Disasters and Climate Change,'' https://www.internal-displacement.org/disasters-and- climate-change (last visited Apr. 13, 2020); UNHCR, ``Climate change and disaster displacement,'' https://www.unhcr.org/en-us/climate- change-and-disasters.html (last visited Mar. 18, 2020). --------------------------------------------------------------------------- International bodies, such as the United Nations (UN) Security Council, are struggling to effectively address drivers of forced migration, including prolonged conflicts, proxy wars, violations of international humanitarian law, and climate change.\10\ Furthermore, the situations of those already displaced have continued to worsen. Despite specific conventions affording refugees international protection, refugees are frequently denied access to rights and services.\11\ Without international accountability, the situation of vulnerable refugees continues to deteriorate.\12\ Yet the circumstances are far worse for those without formal international protections, including those forcibly displaced within their countries (IDPs), as well as those forced to flee due to severe climate change-related events and generalized violence.\13\ Although some countries and regions have taken steps to provide IDPs with protection, many still, including the United States, have yet to recognize and address these vulnerable populations.\14\ Moreover, the traditional solutions for refugees--voluntary return, resettlement in a third country, or integration into their host country--are proving difficult to achieve, with voluntary returns and resettlement at historic lows.\15\ Without drastic international coordination and action, the magnitude of need will continue to swell. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \10\ Council on Foreign Relations, ``No Refuge: Why the World's Swelling Refugee Population Has Shrinking Options,'' Feb. 12, 2019; World Refugee Council, Centre for International Governance Innovative, A Call to Action: Transforming the Global Refugee System, at 2-3 (2019). \11\ See, e.g., Asylum Access & the Refugee Work Rights Coalition, Global Refugee Work Rights Report 2014 (Sep. 2014); Amnesty International, Fears and Fences: Europe's Approach to Keeping Refugees at Bay (Nov. 2015). \12\ World Refugee Council, Centre for International Governance Innovative, A Call to Action: Transforming the Global Refugee System, at 10, 27 (2019). \13\ Kathleen Newland, Rethinking Global Protection: New Channels, New Tools, Transatlantic Council on Migration & Migration Policy Institute (Apr. 2015). \14\ World Refugee Council, Centre for International Governance Innovative, A Call to Action: Transforming the Global Refugee System, at 10 (2019). \15\ Danish Refugee Council et al., Joint NGO Recommendations on Durable Solutions for the Global Compact on Refugees' Programme of Action, at 3 (Dec. 12, 2017). --------------------------------------------------------------------------- At this critical moment, the United States has deliberately turned its back on those seeking refuge. The Trump administration has crippled the United States' refugee resettlement, asylum, and temporary protection systems, and even closed our borders to those with legitimate asylum claims and protection needs. After resettling over 207,000 refugees in 1980, we resettled just 30,000 refugees in Fiscal Year 2019.\16\ For Fiscal Year 2020, the Trump administration's refugee ceiling is 18,000--the lowest in U.S. history at a time when the number of forced migrants has reached its highest in recorded history.\17\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \16\ Migration Policy Institute, ``U.S. Annual Refugee Resettlement Ceilings and Number of Refugees Admitted, 1980-Present,'' https:// www.migrationpolicy.org/programs/data-hub/charts/us-annual-refugee- resettlement-ceilings-and-number-refugees-admitted-united (last visited Aug. 27, 2019); U.S. Department of State Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration Refugee Processing Center, ``Historical Arrivals Broken Down by Region (1975-Present),'' https:// www.wrapsnet.org/documents/ Refugee%20Admissions%20by%20Region%20since%201975%20as%20of%204-9- 20.pdf (last visited Apr. 13, 2020). \17\ Presidential Determination on Refugee Admissions for Fiscal Year 2020, Presidential Determination No. 2020-04, Nov. 1, 2019; UNHCR, Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2018, at 2 (June 2019). --------------------------------------------------------------------------- These regressive actions have damaged the United States' moral leadership, demonstrated a retreat from global leadership in responding to crises, and compromised our ability to forge cooperative relationships with our international partners. The administration's ``Zero Tolerance Policy'' separated terrified migrant children, including infants, from their parents, and drew criticism from Congress, the United Nations, religious leaders, and medical professionals, among many others.\18\ The decimation of U.S. refugee resettlement has left refugee- hosting countries like Jordan, Bangladesh, Uganda, and Turkey in a bind with fewer opportunities for resolution.\19\ While the United States previously led the charge on championing refugee resettlement and human rights, the Trump administration has actively hindered international efforts to respond to the forced migration crisis. By damaging our global reputation and relationships with other countries, the United States' actions towards forced migrants impair our ability to effectively rally international cooperation, including in situations where our own security and stability is threatened. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \18\ Kevin D. Williamson, ``Immigration Policy: Bordering on Madness,'' National Review, June 25, 2019; Catherine E. Shoichet, ``Doctors Saw Immigrant Kids Separated from Their Parents. Now They're Trying to Stop It,'' CNN, June 14, 2018; Amy Wang, ``Officials Blast Trump Policy After Visiting Detained Immigrants,'' Chicago Tribune, June 10, 2018; Emma Green, ``Religious Leaders Condemn Family Separations--but Not Necessarily Trump'', The Atlantic, June 19, 2018; Brad Tuttle, `` `Heartless, Cruel, Immoral.' Every Major CEO Who Condemned Trump's `Zero Tolerance' Border Policy,''Money, June 20, 2018; Nick Cumming-Bruce, ``U.N. Rights Chief Tells U.S. to Stop Taking Migrant Children From Parents,'' The New York Times, June 18, 2018; Tara Isabella Burton, ``Pope Francis Condemns Trump's Family Separation Policy,'' Vox, June 20, 2018. \19\ Amanda Taub & Max Fisher, ``Trump's Refugee Cuts Threaten Deep Consequences at Home and Abroad,'' The New York Times, Sept. 11, 2019; Michelle Nichols, ``Exclusive: Bangladesh PM says expects no help from Trump on refugees fleeing Myanmar,'' Reuters, Sept. 18, 2017; Queen Rania Al Abdullah of Jordan, ``Why Global Leadership on Refugees Matters,'' CNN, Sept. 20, 2017. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- New tools have been developed to address the modern forced migration crisis, but more innovation, implementation, and commitments are needed. Such efforts are game-changing, but nascent. The World Bank has partnered with the United Nations and others to extend concessional financing and grants to low- and middle-income countries struggling with the fiscal impact of hosting large refugee populations.\20\ There is also growing use of technology and private sector engagement working to better serve forced migrant populations.\21\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \20\ World Bank Group International Development Association, ``IDA18 Regional Sub-Window for Refugees and Host Communities,'' http:/ /ida.worldbank.org/replenishments/ida-18replenishments/ida18-regional- sub-window-for-refugees-host-communities (last visited Aug. 27, 2019); Global Concessional Financing Facility (GCFF), 2017-2018 Annual Report, at 5-6 (Dec. 2018). Concessional financing can be in the form of grants, or loans. Concessional loans have more generous terms than market loans. They generally include below-market interest rates, grace periods in which the recipient is not required to make debt payments for several years or a combination of low interest rates/grace periods. See U.S. Agency for International Development, ``What Sources of Grants or Concessional Financing Exist to Help with Mini-Grids in Developing Countries?,'' Feb. 13, 2018. \21\ Ammar A. Malik et al., Private-Sector Humanitarians?: New Approaches in the Global Refugee Response, Urban Institute (Sept. 2018). --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Despite these positive examples, the overall global response is not keeping pace with the enormity of need. While funding for humanitarian responses has increased, exponentially increasing needs have created a wider gap. In 2007, the United Nations reported a 2 percent or approximately 2 billion dollar shortfall on its appeals for humanitarian response funding.\22\ As of 2018, the number has risen to an appalling shortfall of 39 percent, or approximately 10 billion dollars in unmet needs.\23\ At the same time, vulnerable groups remain in limbo while solutions to their plight cannot keep pace. In 2018, for example, there was a more than 99 percent gap between the number of refugees worldwide and global resettlement spaces.\24\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \22\ UNOCHA, Financial Tracking Service, ``Appeals and response plans 2007,'' https://fts.unocha.org/appeals/overview/2007 (last visited June 5, 2020). Note that OCHA/FTS figures rely on accurate and timely reporting by governments and organizations and therefore may be incomplete. Id. \23\ UNOCHA, Financial Tracking Service, ``Appeals and response plans 2018,'' https://fts.unocha.org/appeals/overview/2018 (last visited June 9, 2020). \24\ International Rescue Committee, 10 things to know about the Global Refugee Crisis and America's lack of leadership: An IRC analysis of the latest annual reports from the UN Refugee Agency (July 2019). --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Lastly, the COVID-19 pandemic has reaffirmed the vulnerability of forced migrant populations around the world-- often living in overcrowded settings, lacking adequate access to healthcare, unable to access reliable information, working in the informal sector, and reliant on humanitarian aid.\25\ Well-intentioned government policies to mitigate the spread of the virus may exacerbate inequalities and disproportionately impact the already disadvantaged, including forced migrants.\26\ At the same time, some governments, including the United States, have used the COVID-19 pandemic as pretext for accelerating regressive actions--blaming foreigners for the spread of COVID-19, deporting migrants, and denying access to asylum procedures.\27\ As the world grapples with how to contain the virus and recover from the pandemic, we must remember that this is a global phenomenon, and we are only as strong as our most vulnerable link. The fates of millions of desperate and suffering forced migrants cannot be ignored--at the very least, because their susceptibility to the virus represents a potential obstacle in the global fight against the pandemic. The path to solving global crises is forged through international cooperation and commitments--not cowardice. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \25\ Refugees International, COVID-19 and the Displaced: Addressing the Threat of the Novel Coronavirus in Humanitarian Emergencies (Mar. 30, 2020); International Rescue Committee, COVID-19 in Humanitarian Crises: A Double Emergency (Apr. 2020); Andrej Mahecic, ``Displaced people urgently need aid and access to social safety nets as coronavirus causes severe hardship,'' UNHCR, May 1, 2020; UNOCHA, Global Humanitarian Response Plan: COVID-19, at 13-16 (Mar. 2020). \26\ Mauro Testaverde, ``Social protection for migrants during the COVID-19 crisis: The right and smart choice,'' World Bank Blogs, Apr. 28, 2020. UNOCHA, Global Humanitarian Response Plan: COVID-19, at 15 (Mar. 2020). \27\ Refugees International, COVID-19 and the Displaced: Addressing the Threat of the Novel Coronavirus in Humanitarian Emergencies (Mar. 30, 2020); Nicole Narea, ``The US has abandoned asylum seekers in Mexico during the pandemic,'' Vox, May 13, 2020. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- The United States can and must lead a new global effort to address the global forced migration crisis. Current trends, including the challenge of climate change, will force more people to flee their homes, be on the move, and live in displacement. As the number of those forcibly displaced continues to balloon, the need for innovative and comprehensive international responses is imperative. Under the Trump administration, the United States has responded to the forced migration crisis with fear and regressive policies. In order to mitigate global instability and regain our standing as a nation committed to principled leadership in the world, the United States must reverse course and lead the charge in securing international cooperation and new solutions for today's forced migrants. How the United States chooses to respond to these events will define the world we will live in, and the role the United States plays in it. Defining Forced Migration For the purposes of this report, we use the term ``forced migration'' to refer to the movement of people in which the drivers involve force, compulsion, or coercion. This includes those forcibly displaced by persecution and conflict across country borders (refugees and asylum seekers) and within country borders (IDPs), and additionally seeks to encompass people who migrate due to other situations of violence, severe climate-related events, trafficking, as well as a range of potentially overlapping causes. The term ``forced migration'' is not meant to take a stand in ongoing debates regarding protections under international law and the concept of agency in relation to a distinction between ``forced'' and ``voluntary.''\28\ ``Forced migration'' is not used in defiance or to criticize the various terms that have been adopted to describe these populations, but aspires to capture the pressing and diverse needs and realities of those forced to flee their homes today. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \28\ International Organization for Migration (IOM), Glossary on Migration, at 77 (2019). ``While not an international legal concept, this term has been used to describe the movements of refugees, displaced persons (including those displaced by disasters or development projects), and, in some instances, victims of trafficking. At the international level the use of this term is debated because of the widespread recognition that a continuum of agency exists rather than a voluntary/forced dichotomy and that it might undermine the existing legal international protection regime.'' Id. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Methodology In conducting research for this report, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Democratic Staff interviewed dozens of migration and humanitarian experts, analyzed key documents and reports, and carried out research trips to Colombia, Tunisia, Egypt, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Ethiopia. In each country, staff met with U.S. and national, provincial, and municipal government officials, UN and international nongovernmental organization (NGO) representatives, as well as forced migrants and their host communities. In Colombia, staff focused on the plight of Venezuelan refugees, and in Tunisia, staff focused on forced migrants in and traveling through Libya.\29\ Egypt is host to Syrian, Palestinian, and African refugees.\30\ Bangladesh hosts over 900,000 stateless Rohingya refugees from Burma.\31\ Ethiopia is not only one of the largest refugee- hosting countries in Africa, but also has over 3 million IDPs.\32\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \29\ In the absence of a U.S. embassy in Tripoli, the U.S. Libya External Liaison Office is based in Tunis. \30\ UNHCR, Egypt Fact Sheet, at 1 (May 2019). \31\ UNHCR, Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2018, at 22 (June 2019). \32\ UNOCHA, Ethiopia Situation Report No. 23, at 1 (June 2019); UNHCR, ``Ethiopia,'' https://www.unhcr.org/en-us/ethiopia.html (last visited June 9, 2020). --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Summary of Report This report provides an analysis of the present global forced migration crisis, the challenges it presents to local communities, national governments, the international system, and to the vulnerable men, women, and children themselves who are forced to migrate. Taken together, these facts represent a clarion call urging for strong leadership, international solidarity, and innovation to reduce the suffering of forced migrants and effectively address the sheer magnitude of the crisis. Chapter One lays out the magnitude of today's global forced migration crisis. Chapter Two explores the global trends catalyzing the forced migration of people and the characteristics of their displacement. Chapter Three examines the systematic denial of forced migrants' fundamental human rights across all phases of their forced migration. Chapter Four outlines international efforts to address forced migration, including diplomacy, humanitarian aid, and international legal frameworks. The chapter also highlights regional and country efforts to more adequately address forced migration, as well as dramatic inconsistencies in country-level responses. Chapter Five details the Trump administration's domestic policies and practices towards forced migrants, with particular attention to refugees and asylum seekers. Chapter Six describes the administration's erosion of U.S. diplomatic engagement and international leadership in addressing forced migration and humanitarian crises. Chapter Seven examines the urgent need for new, innovative solutions as traditional responses have proven inadequate to address the scale and complexity of forced migration today. Finally, the Findings and Recommendations outline necessary actions needed to respond to the current forced migration crisis in order to prevent and mitigate disastrous global effects. Below, we have summarized the principal findings and principal recommendations of this report. More detailed Findings & Recommendations can be found beginning on page 137. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Through expert interviews, observations from the field, and research of current policies and best practices to date, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Democratic Staff found the following: The scale of today's forced migration crisis is unprecedented and, if left unaddressed, will grow in size and complexity. A confluence of factors, including persistent climate-related shocks and increasingly frequent, highly violent, and protracted conflicts impacting civilians have resulted in a record number of people forced to flee their homes around the globe. By the end of 2018, there were over 70 million refugees, asylum seekers, and IDPs worldwide. Many forced migrants are unable to return home for decades, often live in urban environments in developing countries, and face severe restrictions to and violations of their human rights. The COVID-19 pandemic has only magnified the extreme vulnerabilities of forced migrant populations, highlighted by dangerously overcrowded settings and inadequate access to basic healthcare. The international community has struggled to address drivers of forced migration and support the growing number of forced migrants worldwide. Armed actors have increasingly failed to adhere to international law, attacking civilians and civilian infrastructure, and interfering with humanitarian aid with impunity. The UN Security Council, largely due to vetoes by its permanent members, has struggled to uphold its core mandate of maintaining peace and security, and has failed to hold violators of international law accountable. Despite specific international legal conventions affording refugees protection, some countries have denied refugees basic rights and services. The situation is often much worse for those without pathways for national and international protection, including IDPs and those displaced by severe climate-related events. The United States' retreat from humanitarian obligations and international cooperation under the Trump administration has dealt a grave blow to the international system. The United States has historically served as a global leader in humanitarian response, humanitarian diplomacy, and refugee resettlement. The Trump administration, by contrast, has used every mechanism at its disposal to block legal pathways for refuge, undermining longstanding U.S. policies. As global need continues to grow, major donors such as the United States have reduced humanitarian financing, and the scale of need is far outpacing available assistance. Furthermore, the United States' regressive leadership has emboldened other countries to abandon their responsibilities to protect refugees and other forced migrants, and has impaired an already-weakened system of international cooperation for responding to global crises like forced migration. A dramatic change in course is needed to address the drivers of forced migration and adequately meet the needs of today's forced migrants. Recent efforts in humanitarian financing, aid, diplomacy, and the private sector highlight opportunities to reinvigorate forced migration responses, although greater support is needed to drive these innovations. These initiatives include new international and national compacts on refugees, the World Bank's concessional financing, and a myriad of private partnerships aimed at providing services and opportunities to forced migrants. Given the scale of today's forced migration crisis, these efforts also underscore a need for collaborative action and widespread rethinking across all sectors--government, finance, and private companies--in order to comprehensively address the crisis. ---------- PRINCIPAL RECOMMENDATIONS Forced migration will fuel future destabilization if not addressed and managed appropriately. While President Trump has repeatedly requested severe cuts to the humanitarian assistance budget, Congress has consistently appropriated funds well above the presidential request. The needs, however, remain enormous, and more must be done to increase resources, encourage innovation, empower policy leadership, and address root causes diplomatically. To these ends, this report recommends the following actions be undertaken by Congress, the Executive Branch, and the United Nations: The United States Government must reinvigorate efforts to uphold international humanitarian law and resolve conflict, a primary driver of forced migration. Congress should authorize the expanded use of sanctions and other tools against perpetrators of international humanitarian law violations and those who deny aid access for life-saving assistance. The Executive Branch, including the Departments of State and Defense, should ensure U.S. military assistance, such as arms sales, military training, and other defense services, is contingent on the implementation of civilian harm mitigation policies and adherence to international humanitarian law. The United States must pursue protection for all forced migrants worldwide. Both Congress and the Executive Branch must ensure that protections afforded to refugees, IDPs, and other forced migrants by international and national laws are upheld within, at, and outside our borders. Congress should mandate regular reports from the State Department and USAID on the rights and situations of forced migrant populations, including refugees and IDPs. The United States must reform and improve upon domestic efforts to address forced migration by restoring the U.S. refugee resettlement program and creating complementary pathways for protection. Harmful Trump administration policies towards forced migrants, including the Remain in Mexico policy and ``safe third country'' agreements, must be terminated. Both Congress and the Executive Branch must take steps to ensure that the U.S. refugee ceiling is increased in line with global need. Both branches should also work to expand our understanding of U.S. refugee law based on current realities and create complementary pathways to protect other forced migrant populations. By reclaiming our reputation as a place of refuge, the United States can lead on securing global solutions. The United States must promote global cooperation efforts to address the forced migration crisis. The Executive Branch should join the Global Compact for Refugees, the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration, and the Paris Climate Agreement. Reinvigorating the momentum behind the 2016 New York Declaration, the United States should lead efforts convening host governments, donors, the private sector, civil society, and forced migrant representatives to form a new compact supporting the inclusion of forced migrant populations in host countries. The United Nations should take further action to enforce international humanitarian law and improve protections for forced migrants. The UN's role in responding to and alleviating the forced migration crisis has never been more important. The UN must use its tools, including Boards of Inquiry, Commissions of Inquiry, and the International Court of Justice, to enforce international law and end rampant impunity, including by publishing findings and identifying perpetrators of violations of international law. The UN Secretary- General should call on host countries to incorporate forced migrant populations into their national action plans. Moreover, the UN Secretary-General should promote awareness and renewed responses for IDP populations by elevating the role of Special Rapporteur on the Human Rights of IDPs to Special Representative on IDPs and encouraging the implementation and ratification of the UN's Guiding Principles on International Displacement. [GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] Committee staff analysis based on UNHCR Population Statistics Data (last visited May 27, 2020). Excludes United Nations Relief Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) refugee populations due to lack of consistent year-over-year reporting of figures. These figures include populations categorized as refugees, internally displaced persons, and asylum seekers and do not necessarily capture all forced migrants who do not meet specific definitions of these categories. CHAPTER ONE The Scale of Today's Forced Migration Crisis ---------- While forced migration is not a new phenomenon, the magnitude and complexity of today's global forced migration crisis is unprecedented.\33\ Media images and daily news from all over the world shed light on the plight of desperate civilians on the move. The haunting photo of a drowned three- year old Syrian boy on the beach in Turkey.\34\ Reports of mass rape, executions, torture, and burning villages in Burma, driving hundreds of thousands of Rohingya from their homes.\35\ These are just snapshots in time. To properly understand the scale of today's forced migration crisis, the overarching facts and figures need to be laid bare: --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \33\ There is some debate over whether the number of forced migrants today is truly ``unprecedented'' given there has not been accurate global data collected on forced migration for much of the world's history. In addition to its scale, however, the current crisis is unprecedented due to the protracted nature of displacement, the atrocities driving displacement, and the incredibly vulnerable situations of forced migrants. See Benjamin Thomas White, ``Talk of an `unprecedented' number of refugees is wrong--and dangerous,'' The New Humanitarian, Oct. 3, 2019; Elizabeth Ferris, ``Unpacking the numbers on global refugees,'' Brookings Institution, June 20, 2017; UN News Services, ``UN, humanitarian community struggling to meet unprecedented needs of refugees,'' Oct. 5, 2015; See also Chapters 2 and 3 for further details. \34\ See Diane Cole, ``Study: What Was The Impact Of The Iconic Photo Of The Syrian Boy?,'' NPR, Jan. 13, 2017. \35\ See, e.g., ``Myanmar Rohingya: What you need to know about the crisis,'' BBC, Jan. 23, 2020; Human Rights Watch, ``Rohingya Crisis,'' https://www.hrw.org/tag/rohingya-crisis (last visited May 27, 2020). On average, 37,000 people were forced from their homes every single day in 2018;\36\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \36\ UNHCR, Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2018, at 2 (June 2019). In 2019, 1 out of every 109 people in the world was either a refugee, asylum seeker, or internally displaced person (IDP);\37\ and --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \37\ UNHCR, ``Figures at a Glance,'' https://www.unhcr.org/en-us/ figures-at-a-glance.html (last visited June 8, 2020); United Nations, ``World Population Prospects 2019,'' https://population.un.org/wpp/ DataQuery/. Using the world population of 7.7 billion in 2019 against the UNHCR-reported figure of 70.8 million forcibly displaced from June 2019. The world's refugee, asylum-seeking, and IDP populations totaled at least 70.8 million in 2019.\38\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \38\ UNHCR, ``Figures at a Glance,'' https://www.unhcr.org/en-us/ figures-at-a-glance.html (last visited June 8, 2020). This figure includes populations categorized as refugees, internally displaced persons, and asylum seekers, but does not necessarily capture all forced migrants who may not be recognized under the 1951 UN Refugee Convention and its accompanying international legal framework. The following statistics only begin to illustrate the scale --------------------------------------------------------------------------- and complexity of today's forced migration crisis: 57 percent of refugees registered with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) fled from three countries: Syria, Afghanistan, and South Sudan;\39\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \39\ UNHCR, ``Figures at a Glance,'' https://www.unhcr.org/en-us/ figures-at-a-glance.html (last visited June 8, 2020); See Chapter 4 for further details on UNHCR. Nearly 25 million people were newly displaced due to disasters in 2019;\40\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \40\ Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Global Report on Internal Displacement 2020 (Apr. 2020). About 80 percent of refugees reside in countries neighboring the countries from which they fled;\41\and --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \41\ UNHCR, ``Figures at a Glance,'' https://www.unhcr.org/en-us/ figures-at-a-glance.html (last visited June 8, 2020). The world's refugee, asylum-seeking, and IDP populations include approximately 30 million children.\42\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \42\ Press Release, United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), Around 30 million children displaced by conflict need protection now and sustainable solutions over the long term, June 19, 2018. Just a handful of crises have caused massive forced migration, and their effects are felt far beyond their borders. Violence in Burma, Syria, South Sudan, and Venezuela has generated massive spillover effects to neighboring countries.\43\ As these contexts have also demonstrated, significant surges in forced migration can exacerbate fragile situations in impacted countries and destabilize entire regions.\44\ Many such countries are not prepared for large influxes of forced migrants and are unable to meet basic humanitarian needs.\45\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \43\ See ``MSF estimates more than 6,700 Rohingya killed in Myanmar,'' BBC, Dec. 14, 2017; UNHCR, ``Operational Portal: South Sudan,'' https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/southsudan (last visited May 27, 2020); UNHCR, ``Syria emergency,'' https://www.unhcr.org/en-us/ syria-emergency.html (last visited May 27, 2020); Regional Inter-Agency Coordination Platform, ``Response for Venezuelans,'' https://r4v.info/ en/situations/platform (last visited May 27, 2020). \44\ Uri Dadush & Mona Niebuhr, ``The Economic Impact of Forced Migration,'' Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Apr. 22, 2016. \45\ Susan Fratzke & Camille Le Coz, Strengthening Refugee Protection in Low-and Middle-Income Countries, Migration Policy Institute (Feb. 2019). --------------------------------------------------------------------------- An exhaustive review of ongoing conflicts and humanitarian emergencies is not necessary to begin appreciating the horrors that civilians experience in times of crisis. Still, it is worthwhile to outline some contemporary examples of conflict-- resulting in forced migration populations Committee staff met with in-person--that continue to challenge the humanitarian community and the existing political and legal frameworks intended to support vulnerable forced migrants. Burma: In August 2017, a brutal military campaign in Rakhine, Burma triggered the flight of an estimated 745,000 Rohingya to Bangladesh, including more than 400,000 children.\46\ In Burma, entire villages were burned to the ground, thousands were killed, families were separated, and women and girls were raped. The massive influx of refugees quickly overwhelmed Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh and led to the growth of the world's largest refugee camp.\47\ Prior to the crisis in 2017, thousands of Rohingya refugees already resided in this region of Bangladesh after fleeing earlier episodes of violence and, to this day, the root causes for their flight from Rakhine, Burma have not been resolved.\48\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \46\ UNOCHA, ``Rohingya Refugee Crisis,'' https://www.unocha.org/ rohingya-refugee-crisis (last visited June 8, 2020). \47\ Id.; ``Former UN Chief Says Bangladesh Cannot Continue Hosting Rohingya,'' Al Jazeera, July 10, 2019. \48\ Medecins Sans Frontieres, ``Timeline: A Visual History of the Rohingya Refugee Crisis,'' Aug. 23, 2019. Syria: Since the conflict in Syria began in 2011, more than half of Syria's population of 21 million has been displaced, including 6.6 million who are internally displaced and 5.6 million refugees who fled to and are still residing in neighboring countries.\49\ At least 13 million who remain inside Syria need basic humanitarian assistance.\50\ In 2018, an average 4,477 civilians were displaced each day, a figure which increased dramatically in early 2020 during the military offensive in northwest Syria, when nearly one million people were displaced within three months.\51\ From December 2019 to February 2020, more than 11,000 Syrians were displaced from their homes each day.\52\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \49\ UNHCR, ``Syria emergency,'' https://www.unhcr.org/en-us/syria- emergency.html (last visited June 8, 2020); World Bank, ``Population, total--Syrian Arab Republic,'' https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ SP.POP.TOTL?locations=SY (last visited June 8, 2020). \50\ UNHCR, ``Syria Emergency,'' https://www.unhcr.org/en-us/syria- emergency.html (last visited June 8, 2020). \51\ UNOCHA, ``Humanitarian Needs Overview 2019,'' https://hno- syria.org/#key-figures (last visited May 27, 2020); UNOCHA, Syrian Arab Republic: Recent Developments in Northwest Syria (Mar. 5, 2020). \52\ `` `A horrifying new level': UN says 900,000 displaced in Northwest Syria since December,'' France24, Feb. 17, 2020. South Sudan: The conflict in South Sudan--which began in December 2013--has had ripple effects across the region, with more than two million people fleeing to neighboring countries.\53\ To make matters worse, South Sudan's neighboring countries were already struggling to manage pre-existing humanitarian emergencies and support displaced populations.\54\ As of May 2020, Uganda hosted more than 880,000 refugees from South Sudan.\55\ Within South Sudan, two-thirds of the population needs humanitarian aid.\56\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \53\ UNHCR, ``Operational Portal: South Sudan,'' https:// data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/southsudan (last visited May 27, 2020). \54\ See UNOCHA, Annual Report, at 1 (2013); Sulaiman Momodu, ``Refugees turn to Ethiopia for safety and asylum,'' Africa Renewal, Apr. 2015; UNHCR, ``Dadaab Refugee Complex,'' https://www.unhcr.org/ke/ dadaab-refugee-complex (last visited June 8, 2020); USA for UNHCR, ``Central African Republic Refugee Crisis,'' https:// www.unrefugees.org/emergencies/car/ (last visited May 29, 2020). \55\ UNHCR, ``Uganda Comprehensive Refugee Response Portal,'' https://data2.unhcr.org/en/country/uga (last visited May 27, 2020). \56\ UNOCHA, South Sudan Humanitarian Needs Overview 2020, at 26 (Nov. 2019). Venezuela: Although not considered a traditional conflict, Venezuela's crisis is, by many measures, one of the world's worst forced migration crises.\57\ More than five million people have fled the country, and, if the rate of forced displacement continues, it will soon overtake Syria as the world's largest refugee crisis.\58\ Widespread electricity and water shortages, a crumbling heathcare system, as well as dwindling food supplies, have forced many to flee in search of basic services to Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, and elsewhere in the region.\59\ Meanwhile, widespread violence, propagated by gangs and government security forces, have exacerbated refugee flows.\60\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \57\ See Dany Bahar & Meagan Dooley, The Brookings Institution, ``Venezuela refugee crisis to become the largest and most underfunded in modern history,'' Dec. 9, 2019; Mercy Corps, ``The facts: Venezuela's humanitarian crisis,'' Aug. 13, 2019. \58\ Regional Inter-Agency Coordination Platform, ``Response for Venezuelans,'' https://r4v.info/en/situations/platform (last visited May 27, 2020); Dany Bahar & Meagan Dooley, The Brookings Institution, ``Venezuela refugee crisis to become the largest and most underfunded in modern history,'' Dec. 9, 2019. \59\ Mercy Corps, ``The facts: Venezuela's humanitarian crisis,'' Aug. 13, 2019; Dany Bahar & Meagan Dooley, ``Venezuela refugee crisis to become the largest and most underfunded in modern history,'' Dec. 9, 2019. \60\ Dany Bahar & Meagan Dooley, ``Venezuela refugee crisis to become the largest and most underfunded in modern history,'' Dec. 9, 2019; Oriana Van Praag, ``Understanding the Venezuelan Refugee Crisis,'' Wilson Center, Sept. 13, 2019; Frank Jack Daniel, ``Ultra- violent gangs thrive in chaotic Venezuela despite crackdown,'' Reuters, Aug. 31, 2016. These examples only begin to paint a picture of the forced migrant crisis impacting our world today. The following chapters provide further details with the hope that greater understanding can spur new efforts to address the political, economic, social, and humanitarian elements of this crisis, and reduce the scale of immense human suffering it entails. [GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] A child carries a water jug, part of a bundle of supplies given to refugee families after they register, at the Dagahaley refugee camp in Dadaab, Kenya. David Lienemann, Child with relief supplies in Kenya, The White House, Aug. 8, 2011. CHAPTER TWO Trends in Forced Migration ---------- Today, more men, women, and children are forced to flee their homes than ever before. Conflicts across the globe have increased in frequency and intensity. Furthermore, the rise of non-state armed actors like terrorists and violent gangs, urban conflict, restrictions on humanitarian access, violations of international humanitarian law, and climate change have exacerbated migration trends and complicated the international community's ability to respond. New trends, such as protracted displacement and urbanization, have challenged many of the available tools to support forced migrants. As these developments continue, protecting the human rights and meeting the basic needs of forced migrant populations will be increasingly challenging. Why More People Are Fleeing: The Changing Nature of Conflict & Violence Libya. South Sudan. Cameroon. Syria. Democratic Republic of Congo. Burma. Mali. The list of countries plagued by conflict goes on and on. The number of conflicts occurring worldwide is more than 60 percent greater than it was a decade ago.\61\ The characteristics of conflict have changed as well--conflicts last longer, are more likely to be within states rather than between states, are increasingly urban, and are more frequently involving non-state actors. These changes have taken place amidst major socio-economic and political changes around the globe, including a rise in populist nationalist governments, a weakened United Nations (UN) Security Council, and the absence of a single superpower willing to call for principled action. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \61\ Emma Samman et al., SDG Progress: Fragility, crisis and leaving no one behind, Overseas Development Institute, at 13 (Sept. 2018). --------------------------------------------------------------------------- In 2019, conflict remained the primary driver of global humanitarian need.\62\ By the end of 2018, at least 70.8 million people were forcibly displaced, primarily due to conflict and generalized violence, as well as persecution and human rights violations.\63\ Around 30 million children were displaced by conflict alone.\64\ These figures are the highest on record and represent dramatic increases over the past decade.\65\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \62\ UNOCHA, Global Humanitarian Overview 2019, at 5-6 (2019). \63\ UNHCR, Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2018, at 2-3 (June 2019); Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2019 Summary, at 6 (May 2019). \64\ Press Release, United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), Around 30 million children displaced by conflict need protection now and sustainable solutions over the long term, June 20, 2018. \65\ UNHCR, Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2018, at 5 (June 2019); UNHCR, 2008 Global Trends: Refugees, Asylum-seekers, Returnees, Internally Displaced and Stateless Persons, at 2 (June 16, 2009). UNHCR identified 42 million forcibly displaced persons at the end of 2008 compared to over 70 million in 2018. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Increasingly Frequent & Prolonged Conflicts In 2013, there were 34 active conflicts globally.\66\ Just five years later, in 2018, there were 52.\67\ The world is not only seeing more outbreaks of conflict, but also conflicts that last longer than ever before. From 1990 to 2013, the average length of conflict nearly doubled--from 19 to 37 years.\68\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \66\ Scott Gates et al., Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946-2014, Peace Research Institute Oslo, at 2 (2016). \67\ Harvard Strand et al., Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946-2018, Peace Research Institute Oslo, at 2 (2019). \68\ Christina Bennett et al., Time to let go: Remaking humanitarian action for the modern era, Overseas Development Institute, at 29 (Apr. 2016). --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Today, conflict is the main driver of humanitarian need-- accounting for 80 percent of global humanitarian assistance-- whereas ten years ago, the same percentage of humanitarian assistance went to victims of natural disasters, such as earthquakes and floods.\69\ In 2019, the UN estimated that just six conflict-driven humanitarian emergencies would be responsible for more than half of all people in need of humanitarian assistance and protection: Yemen, Syria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Sudan.\70\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \69\ Statement of Nancy Lindborg, President of the United States Institute of Peace, Hearing on Flashing Red: The State of Global Humanitarian Affairs, Hearing before the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Mar. 22, 2017, at 5. \70\ UNOCHA, Global Humanitarian Overview 2019, at 4-5, 26 (2019). --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Non-Traditional Warring Parties & Proxy Warfare The characteristics of contemporary armed conflicts are vastly different from traditional wars. First, the parties to conflict have changed--they are more likely to be non-state actors, such as ethnic and religious groups, terrorist organizations, and criminal enterprises.\71\ These parties increasingly target civilian populations to further their political ambitions, create chaos to destabilize governments, and generally assert power.\72\ From gangs in Central America to the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, civilians increasingly flee from persecution and violence resulting from these groups' brutal tactics to conquer territory and assert control over the populace.\73\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \71\ Harvard Strand et al., Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946-2018, Peace Research Institute Oslo, at 2 (2019). \72\ United Nations Security Council, Report of the Secretary General: Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict, at 6 (2019). \73\ David James Cantor & Malte Plewa, Forced displacement and violent crime: a humanitarian crisis in Central America?, Overseas Development Institute (June 2017); International Crisis Group,`Averting an ISIS Resurgence in Iraq and Syria, at 14 (Oct. 2019).' --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Accordingly, conflicts are increasingly within countries (intrastate) as opposed to between countries (interstate).\74\ However, the rise of great power competition has led to increased proxy warfare and internationalized civil conflict, where external actors are involved in intrastate conflicts.\75\ Over the past decade, internationalized civil conflict has grown to make up almost 40 percent of conflicts today.\76\ In Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Libya, the influx of material support from external powers has increased the lethality and duration of these conflicts.\77\ Furthermore, external nations' military support has weakened the effectiveness of humanitarian diplomacy and relief. In the case of Yemen, the United States is uniquely positioned to be a force for de-escalation in the conflict, but humanitarian diplomacy efforts have been undermined by U.S. military support for one side of the conflict.\78\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \74\ Harvard Strand et al., Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946-2018, Peace Research Institute Oslo, at 2 (2019). \75\ ``Proxy war,'' Cambridge Dictionary (2011). A proxy war is defined as ``a war fought between groups or smaller countries that each represent the interests of other larger powers, and may have help and support from these.'' Id. \76\ Kendra Dupuy & Siri Aas Rustud, Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946-2017, Peace Research Institute Oslo, at 2 (May 2018). Based off of 2017 data of 49 armed conflicts, of which 19 were intrastate conflicts where external states contributed to troops on at least one side. Id. \77\ Candace Rondeaux & David Sterman, Twenty-First Century Proxy Warfare: Confronting Strategic Innovation in a Multipolar World, New America Foundation (Feb. 20, 2019). \78\ Michael LaForgia & Walt Bogdanich, ``Why Bombs Made in America Have Been Killing Civilians in Yemen,'' The New York Times, May 16, 2020. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Widespread Violence & Criminality Driving Forced Migration While armed conflict is a well-established driver of displacement, it is increasingly urgent to address broader patterns of violence and criminality prompting forced migration. In Central America, for instance, the recent surge of displacement due to violence and insecurity has reached levels not seen since the 1980s, when the region was suffering from widespread armed conflict.\79\ The violence--largely perpetrated by organized gangs--is targeted against civilians and is more deadly than many conflicts taking place across the globe, leaving millions in need of basic humanitarian assistance.\80\ However, generally this type of violence is not officially recognized under international humanitarian law (the International Committee of the Red Cross categorizes it as ``other situations of violence''), and challenges traditional criteria for refugee status and international protection.\81\ Nevertheless, the rapidly growing number of individuals from the region who are considered asylum seekers and refugees underscores the urgent need to address this trend.\82\ As of June 2020, there were 400,200 recognized refugees and asylum seekers from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras--a figure increasing at an annual rate of 13 percent.\83\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \79\ Nora Sturm, ``UNHCR calls for urgent action as Central America asylum claims soar,'' UNHCR News, Apr. 5, 2016. \80\ Press Release, Norwegian Refugee Council et al., A Regional Humanitarian Response Plan for an Intensifying Humanitarian Crisis in the North of Central America, June 28, 2019. \81\ Marguerite Cawley, ``Is Central America's Gang Violence A Humanitarians Crisis?,'' Insight Crime, July 18, 2014; International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), Characteristics of Armed Conflicts & Other Situations of Violence (Oct. 2017). \82\ UNHCR, ``Displacement in Central America,'' https:// www.unhcr.org/en-us/displacement-in-central-america.html (last visited June 5, 2020). \83\ Id. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Urbanization of Conflict The rise of urban warfare in places like Syria, Yemen, and Libya presents a complex set of challenges for the humanitarian community. First and foremost, civilian casualties are more likely to increase during urban conflicts.\84\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \84\ Jan Egeland & Stephen O'Brien, ``International humanitarian law is unravelling before our eyes,'' The Guardian, Mar. 25, 2016. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Second, urban populations depend on large-scale infrastructure and networks for basic services, such as electricity and water, but do not have the means to directly control or restore them.\85\ As a result, damage to infrastructure has large-scale impacts.\86\ For example, the destruction of a single power line could impact an entire neighborhood with hundreds of thousands of residents, as well as hospitals and water pumping and treatment centers.\87\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \85\ ICRC, Urban Services during Protracted Armed Conflict: a call for a better approach to assisting affected people, at 14 (2015). \86\ Id. at 14-15. \87\ Id. at 14. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Between 2015 and 2018 in Yemen, for example, the Saudi-led coalition conducted 18,000 airstrikes--roughly one every 100 minutes--one-third of which hit non-military targets.\88\ As a result, 50 percent of hospitals and clinics were closed, more than 70 percent did not have regular supplies of essential medicines, and more than 68 percent of the population was left without access to basic health care.\89\ The conflict has resulted in a collapsed health system unequipped to deal with the worst cholera outbreak in modern history, as well as the COVID-19 pandemic.\90\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \88\ Press Release, International Rescue Committee, Civilian Deaths in Yemen up by 164% as United States Recertifies Support for the War, Sept. 25, 2018. \89\ UNOCHA, Global Humanitarian Overview 2019, at 47 (2019); Press Release, International Rescue Committee, The Conflict in Yemen: Time for a New Approach, Apr. 5, 2018. \90\ World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean, ``WHO experts sustain decrease in new cholera cases and deaths in Yemen,'' June 12, 2019; Stephanie Nebehay, ``Yemen's health system `has in effect collapsed' as COVID spreads: U.N.,'' Reuters, May 22, 2020. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Lastly, active conflicts in densely-populated urban areas lead to volatile population movements--a rapid influx of displaced civilians can significantly increase pressure on basic services relied upon by host populations, an especially dire situation when access to services was already poor.\91\ Today, most of the world's refugees and IDPs reside in cities or other urban areas.\92\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \91\ ICRC, Urban Services During Protracted Armed Conflict: a call for a better approach to assisting affected people, at 15-16 (2015). \92\ Hans Park, ``The Power of Cities,'' UNHCR, Nov. 25, 2016. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Restrictions on Aid Organizations & Attacks on Aid Workers In more than 40 countries, warring parties are denying humanitarian organizations access to desperate populations, with several of the worst crises, including Syria, Somalia, and Yemen, considered virtually inaccessible to humanitarian actors.\93\ Access restraints--where organizations are unable to reach affected populations or those populations are unable to obtain assistance--hinder humanitarian operations and exacerbate conditions on the ground.\94\ Furthermore, these restrictions directly violate international humanitarian law, which states that all parties to armed conflicts ``must allow and facilitate rapid and unimpeded passage of humanitarian relief for civilians in need.''\95\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \93\ Assessment Capacities Project (ACAPS), Humanitarian Access Overview (Aug. 2018). \94\ United Nations Security Council, Report of the Secretary General: Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict, at 9 (2019). \95\ International Committee of the Red Cross, ``Rule 55. Access for Humanitarian relief to Civilians in Need,'' https://ihl- databases.icrc.org/customary-ihl/eng/docs/v1--rul--rule55 (last visited June 5, 2020). --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Humanitarian organizations increasingly face bureaucratic restrictions and direct interference from warring parties.\96\ State and non-state actors employ a variety of tactics to restrain or deny humanitarian access by non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and international agencies, including but not limited to: denying access to certain populations, restricting movement, interfering with activities, threatening relief personnel, and establishing burdensome bureaucratic measures.\97\ Some of the more alarming and illustrative cases of access challenges take form when siege is used as a tactic of war, which we have seen recently in the contexts of Nigeria and Yemen.\98\ In northeastern Nigeria, government authorities have restricted aid organizations from operating outside of government-controlled areas.\99\ As a result, aid agencies cannot reach an estimated 1.2 million people.\100\ In Yemen at the end of February 2020, 123 NGO projects were waiting on government approval, having waited on average for six months-- effectively denying aid to 8.2 million people who would have been served by the pending projects.\101\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \96\ United Nations Security Council, Report of the Secretary General: Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict, at 9 (2019); UNOCHA, OCHA on Message: Humanitarian Access (2012). \97\ United Nations Security Council, Report of the Secretary General: Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict, at 9 (2019); UNOCHA, OCHA on Message: Humanitarian Access (2012). \98\ Human Rights Watch, Nigeria: Army Restrictions Stifling Aid Efforts (Mar. 4, 2020); UNOCHA, Yemen Humanitarian Update, at 3 (Feb. 2020). \99\ Id. \100\ UN Civil-Security Cooperation in Humanitarian Interventions in the North-East Workshop, Opening Remarks by Edward Kallon, Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Nigeria (Nov. 6, 2019). \101\ UNOCHA, Yemen Humanitarian Update, at 3 (Feb. 2020). --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Furthermore, aid workers and humanitarian facilities are frequently attacked. On what the UN considers its ``darkest day,'' a brazen attack against the UN in Baghdad in August 2003 killed 22, including the UN Representative Sergio Vieira de Mello.\102\ In years since, however, attacks against aid workers have become more widespread. The Aid Worker Security Database, which independently tracks these incidents, documented 228 major incidents in 2018, a 31 percent increase from 2017 and the second highest number on record.\103\ Specifically, attacks on health facilities, supplies, and workers continue today at alarming rates--in 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) recorded 1,009 such attacks, compared to 795 attacks in 2018.\104\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \102\ ``In solemn tributes, UN to mark first anniversary of deadly terror attack in Baghdad,'' UN News, Aug. 18, 2004. \103\ The Aid Worker Security Database, ``Major attacks on aid workers: summary statistics (2008-2018),'' May 27, 2020, https:// aidworkersecurity.org/incidents/report/summary. \104\ WHO, ``Surveillance System for Attacks on health Care (SSA),'' https://publicspace.who.int/sites/ssa/SitePages/ PublicDashboard.aspx (last visited June 4, 2020). --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Impunity & the Degradation of International Humanitarian Law State and non-state actors alike are increasingly ignoring the traditional rules of war enshrined in the 1949 Geneva Conventions, which seek to reduce the devastating impact of wars on civilians. Armed actors often fail to take precautions to protect civilians, and some even delibera\105\1 In 2018, the UN Security Council reported that civilians accounted for the vast majority of casualties in armed conflicts across the globe.\106\ 2018 also saw 12,000 children killed or maimed by conflict--the highest figure on record.\107\ At one point during the conflict in Yemen, civilians accounted for 93 percent of documented casualties.\108\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \105\ United Nations Security Council, Report of the Secretary General: Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict, at 6 (2019); UNOCHA, ``5 ways to better protect civilians in conflict zones,'' Aug. 15, 2018. \106\ United Nations Security Council, Report of the Secretary General: Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict, at 1 (2019). \107\ ``New UN report shows record number of children killed and maimed in conflict,'' UN News, July 20, 2019. \108\ Nigel Fisher, ``93% of deaths and injuries in Yemen are civilian--this must change,'' The Guardian, Oct. 27, 2015. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Today, the world is witnessing widespread violations of international humanitarian law, and yet the available mechanisms to ensure compliance by warring parties are limited.\109\ Formal accountability for violations of international law are rarely pursued. Accountability mechanisms were designed to address international armed conflicts between states, as opposed to today's civil wars, intrastate conflicts, and internationalized intrastate conflicts.\110\ In addition, rising tensions between global powers has reduced the ability to protect humanitarian access and resolve conflict through diplomacy.\111\ The UN Security Council, the primary international body responsible for maintaining peace and security, has faced deadlock as some of its permanent members are involved in conflict, particularly internationalized intrastate conflict, and are directly or indirectly implicated in violations of international law.\112\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \109\ ICRC, Strengthening Compliance With International Humanitarian Law, 32nd International Conference of the Red Cross and Red Crescent, at 8 (Oct. 2015). \110\ Id. at 9. \111\ Bruce Jones et al., Competitive Multilateralism; Adapting Institutions to Meet the New Geopolitical Environment, Brookings Institution, at 1 (Sept. 2019). \112\ See, e.g., United Nations Human Rights Council, Report of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic, 43rd Session (Jan. 28, 2020); Julian Borger, ``Russia committed war crimes in Syria, finds Un report,'' The Guardian, Mar. 2, 2020; Gwendolyn Sasse, Revisiting the 2014 Annexation of Crimea, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Mar. 15, 2017). --------------------------------------------------------------------------- The resulting impunity impacts displacement in three primary ways. First, the targeting of civilians and critical civilian infrastructure causes people to flee, either in anticipation of or as a result of direct violence.\113\ Second, violations of international humanitarian law make it less likely that those who have fled will return, as they will doubt whether they can do so safely.\114\ Lastly, as violators of international law go unpunished, more violations occur, leading to more displacement and more suffering.\115\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \113\ ICRC, Displacement in Times of Armed Conflict, How International Humanitarian Law Protects in War, and Why it Matters, at 6-7 (Apr. 2019). \114\ Id. \115\ David Miliband, President and CEO, International Rescue Committee, ``Welcome to the age of impunity,'' Remarks at the World Economic Forum, Davos, Switzerland, Jan. 24, 2020. [GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] The remnants of a patient exam room at Alzerbeh Primary Health Clinic in the countryside of Aleppo. The clinic was targeted directly by an air-to-surface missile, despite having previously shared its coordinates through the UN deconfliction system to avoid targeting. Syrian American Medical Society, Aug. 30, 2019. In Focus: SYRIA: THE UNRAVELING OF INTERNATIONAL HUMANITARIAN LAW The brutality of Syria's conflict--which has resulted in the largest displacement crisis in a generation--persistently underscores the horrors and impunity that exist in modern conflicts. On top of the more than 500,000 civilians killed and more than 10 million displaced, there has been a complete breakdown of international humanitarian law.\116\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \116\ Human Rights Watch, World Report 2019: Syria (2019); Vincent Bernard, Conflict in Syria: Finding Hope Amid the Ruins, International Review of the Red Cross, at 866 and 872 (2017). --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Throughout the course of the conflict, the regime has indiscriminately targeted densely populated urban areas, including repeated attacks against health facilities and other civilian infrastructure.\117\ In blatant violations of the laws of armed conflict, the Syrian regime has also routinely besieged cities and starved civilians as a military tactic.\118\ These tactics were on full display during the early 2020 military offensive on Idlib province in northwest Syria, which displaced more than one million civilians in three months.\119\ To make matters worse, the humanitarian response has been challenged by a complex bureaucracy imposed by the Syrian government upon aid organizations, who are routinely denied access to desperate populations.\120\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \117\ Brent Eng & Jose Ciro Martinez, ``Why the Syrian regime has been targeting civilian infrastructure,'' The Washington Post, Apr. 16, 2018. \118\ UN Security Council, Those Besieging Syrian Cities Know Security Council Unable, Unwilling to Stop Them, Emergency Relief Coordinator Says in Briefing, 7817th Meeting (Nov. 21, 2016). \119\ UNOCHA, Syrian Arab Republic: Recent Developments in Northwest Syria (Mar. 5, 2020). \120\ UNOCHA, Humanitarian Access Analysis: Syrian Arab Republic (Sept. 17, 2019); Jesse Marks, ``Humanitarian aid in Syria is being politicized--and too many civilians in need aren't getting it,'' The Washington Post, Aug. 6, 2019. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Furthermore, in January 2020, the UN Security Council, due to disagreement among its permanent members, halved the number of border crossings into Syria, undermining cross border operations that 4 million Syrians rely on to survive.\121\ Over the course of the nearly 10-year conflict, numerous formal and independent investigative mechanisms have been established, including by the UN Secretary General, but none have resulted in formal accountability for these atrocities.\122\ For instance, the UN Board of Inquiry in northwest Syria released its findings in April 2020, but failed to conclusively identify perpetrators or follow-on mechanisms for accountability.\123\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \121\ Michelle Nichols, ``U.N. renews Syria cross-border aid operation but halves crossings, length of time,'' Reuters, Jan. 10, 2020. \122\ Press Release, United Nations Secretary General, Statement attributable to the Spokesperson for the Secretary-General--on UN Board of Inquiry in northwest Syria, Sept. 13, 2019; UN Security Council, Letter dated 21 December 2016 from the Secretary-General addressed to the President of the Security Council, Dec. 21, 2016. \123\ Evan Hill, ``U.N. Inquiry into Syria Bombings Is Silent on Russia's Role,'' The New York Times, Apr. 6, 2020. Climate Change's Impact On Forced Migration We cannot ignore the increasing role of climate change as a driver of forced migration. The impacts of climate change are innumerable, and include depleted natural resources, rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and conflict--all of which can force people to leave their homes.\124\ In 2016 alone, extreme weather-related disasters displaced around 24 million people.\125\ The UN estimates that by 2050 between 150 and 200 million people will be at risk of climate change-induced displacement, most of whom are expected to remain inside their countries.\126\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \124\ UNHCR, ``Climate change and disaster displacement,'' https:// www.unhcr.org/en-us/climate-change-and-disasters.html (last visited June 4, 2020). \125\ Environmental Justice Foundation, Climate Displacement in Bangladesh (2018) (excluding those displaced by slow-onset environmental degradation). \126\ Michela Miletto et al., Migration and its interdependencies with water scarcity, gender and youth employment, United Nations Education, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) & World Water Assessment Programme, at 8 (2017). --------------------------------------------------------------------------- While climate change is never the sole cause of conflict-- poor governance and weak state institutions often enable, if not directly cause, conflict--climate change has certainly contributed to factors spurring conflict. As a 2014 U.S. Department of Defense study asserted: The impacts of climate change may cause instability in other countries by impairing access to food and water, damaging infrastructure, spreading disease, uprooting and displacing large numbers of people, compelling mass migration, interrupting commercial activity, or restricting electricity availability. These developments could undermine already-fragile governments that are unable to respond effectively or challenge currently stable governments, as well as increasing competition and tension between countries vying for limited resources.\127\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \127\ U.S. Department of Defense, 2014 Climate Change Adaption Roadmap, at 4 (2014). A recent scientific study estimated that a 2-degree Celsius rise in temperature--which the Paris Climate Agreement aims not to exceed--would more than double the influence of climate on conflict, rising to 13 percent.\128\ A 4-degree Celsius rise in temperature would increase the influence of climate on conflict to 26 percent.\129\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \128\ Devon Ryan, ``How much does climate change affects the risk of armed conflict,'' Science Daily, June 12, 2019. \129\ Id. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- In addition to spurring conflict, climate change will inevitably result in more extreme weather events, including droughts, floods, storms, and landslides, causing displacement.\130\ In 2019, the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre estimated that 1,900 disasters triggered 24.9 million new displacement across 140 countries--three times the number of new displacements caused by conflict and violence.\131\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \130\ United States Geological Survey, ``How can climate change affect natural disasters?,'' https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/how-can-climate- change-affect-natural-disasters-1?qt-news--science--products=0#qt- news--science--products (last visited June 4, 2020). \131\ IDMC, Global Report on Internal Displacement 2020 (Apr. 2020). --------------------------------------------------------------------------- The effects of climate change disproportionately impact the most vulnerable people who are least able to adapt. Women and girls are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. For example, in regions experiencing drought, girls are more likely to be withdrawn from school to collect water.\132\ Once girls are out of school, it is more likely that they will become child brides, which profoundly impacts their mental, physical, and overall wellbeing, and reduces their ability to be financially independent.\133\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \132\ Maram Ahmed, World Economic Forum, Global Agenda, ``How climate change exacerbates the refugee crisis -- and what can be done about it,'' June 20, 2019. \133\ Laurie Goering, ``With climate change driving child marriage risks, Bangladesh fights back,'' Reuters, July 20, 2017. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- In Focus: CLIMATE DISPLACEMENT IN BANGLADESH In 2017, the world watched in horror as hundreds of thousands of Rohingya were forced from their homes in Burma by a military-led crackdown and sought safe haven in Bangladesh.\134\ Bangladesh itself, however, was already and is still suffering from a desperate displacement crisis. In a country with low elevation, high population density, and inadequate infrastructure, Bangladeshis are extremely susceptible to climate change displacement.\135\ By 2050, it is estimated that 1 in 7 people in Bangladesh will be displaced by climate change.\136\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \134\ Jennifer Chowdhury, ``Bangladesh, growing tired of hosting Rohingya refugees, puts new squeeze on the teeming camps,'' The Washington Post, Sept. 11, 2019. \135\ Kumari Rigaud et al., Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration, World Bank, at 127 (2018); Environmental Justice Foundation, Climate Displacement in Bangladesh (2018). \136\ Rigaud et al., Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration, at 127; Environmental Justice Foundation, Climate Displacement in Bangladesh. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Rising sea levels are expected to displace 18 million people in Bangladesh by 2050 due to loss of land, tidal flooding, and other negative effects.\137\ Salinization, or the contamination of water supplies with salt, has been and will be exacerbated by rising sea levels, leaving 33 million people vulnerable to related health problems by 2050.\138\ Inland, melting Himalayan glaciers are already causing rising river levels and erosion driving the displacement of 50,000 to 200,000 people annually.\139\ Climate change is also causing an increasing frequency and severity of tropical storms. In 2016, there were four cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, compared to one normally.\140\ Other causes of climate displacement in Bangladesh include increasingly erratic rainfall patterns causing drought in the drier north-western regions and landslides in the hilly north-eastern and south-eastern regions.\141\ \137\ Rigaud et al., Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration, at 156; Environmental Justice Foundation, Climate Displacement in Bangladesh. \138\ Environmental Justice Foundation, Climate Displacement in Bangladesh. \139\ Robert Glennon, ``The Unfolding Tragedy of Climate Change in Bangladesh,'' Scientific American, Apr. 21, 2017. \140\ Environmental Justice Foundation, Climate Displacement in Bangladesh (2018). \141\ Id. [GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] Maggie Moore, [Rohingya] Girl with bowl on head, USAID, Jan. 16, 2018. Internally Displaced Persons Under-Recognized At 41.3 million globally, IDPs vastly outnumber refugees, yet they receive a fraction of international humanitarian assistance and lack formal international protections.\142\ National governments have the responsibility to provide protection for IDPs and otherwise allow for humanitarian organizations to provide assistance; however, in many contexts, government authorities are unable or even unwilling to provide or allow for necessary assistance.\143\ In countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo and Ethiopia, persistent cycles of violence have created huge numbers of IDPs that the government has either chosen not to protect or struggled to serve.\144\ In some cases, like Syria, the government has actually perpetrated the violence and forced many to flee their homes.\145\ Humanitarian organizations often lack the resources, capacity, and government permission to adequately respond to an IDP crisis.\146\ IDP populations are often explicitly or implicitly left out of national action plans and resources, and international organizations lack the authority to enforce sovereign responsibility for IDP populations.\147\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \142\ UNHCR, Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2018, at 3, 7 (June 2019); UNICEF & IDMC, Protecting and Supporting Internally Displaced Children in Urban Settings, at 2 (July 2019). \143\ United Nations Office of the High Commissioner on Human Rights (UNOHCHR), Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement (Feb. 11, 1998). The UN Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement state that, ``National authorities have the primary duty and responsibility to provide protection and humanitarian assistance to internally displaced persons within their jurisdiction.'' Id. \144\ Mark Yarnell, ``The World Is Failing Internally Displaced People. Here's One Solution,'' Refugees Deeply, July 10, 2018; IDMC, Ethiopia tops global list of highest displacement in 2018 (Sept. 12, 2018). \145\ Mark Yarnell & Mikaela Rear, ``Dear UN secretary-general, don't forget the internally displaced,'' The New Humanitarian, July 15, 2019. \146\ Mark Yarnell, ``The World Is Failing Internally Displaced People. Here's One Solution,'' Refugees Deeply, July 10, 2018; Mark Yarnell, The Crisis Below the Headlines: Conflict Displacement in Ethiopia, Refugees International (Nov. 2018). \147\ Press Release, International Rescue Committee, Statement by David Miliband, President and CEO of the International Rescue Committee, at the conclusion of his four-day visit to Chad and Cameroon, July 10, 2019; Roberta Cohen, The Development of International Strategies to Protect Internally Displaced Persons, The Brookings Institution, May 7, 1998. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- The failure to fully address the needs of IDPs is an urgent and persistent problem that will only increase with time. In addition to conflict-induced internal displacement, climate change could increase the number of IDPs to well over 140 million people by 2050.\148\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \148\ Rigaud et al., Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration, at xix. [GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] New Challenges for Forced Migrants Decades in Displacement As conflicts last longer, most displaced civilians are unable to return home. Today, estimates for the average length of time refugees remain displaced from their home country range between 10 and 26 years.\149\ For IDPs, most experience serial or cyclical displacements--after attempting to return to their areas of origin, many are forced to flee again.\150\ Today, the rate of new displacements vastly exceeds the rate at which civilians are returning home or obtaining other permanent solutions. In 2018, less than 3 percent of refugees and less than 6 percent of IDPs returned home.\151\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \149\ Xavier Devictor & Quy-Toan Do, How Many Years Have Refugees Been in Exile?, World Bank (Sept. 2016); Elizabeth Ferris, ``When refugee displacement drags on, is self-reliance the answer?,'' The Brookings Institution (June 19, 2018); UNHCR, Contribution to the Fifteenth Coordination Meeting on International Migration, at 2 (Feb. 10, 2017). \150\ UNOCHA, Global Humanitarian Overview 2019, at 2 (2019). \151\ UNHCR, Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2018, at 2-3 (June 2019). Note that IDP solutions are incredibly hard to determine, especially the solution of local integration. Id. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Multiple generations are growing up in displacement. The longest refugee situation is that of Palestinian refugees, five million of which are eligible for services from the UN Relief and Works Agency in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, and parts of East Jerusalem.\152\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \152\ Id. at 23; United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), ``Palestine Refugees,'' https://www.unrwa.org/palestine-refugees (last visited June 17, 2020). --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Numerous conflicts elsewhere have caused generational refugee crises: Eritrean refugees have been displaced in Sudan for close to 30 years;\153\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \153\ UNHCR, Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2018, at 23 (June 2019). Many Burundian refugees have been in Tanzania for over 45 years;\154\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \154\ Id. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Millions of forcibly displaced Afghan nationals have been living in Pakistan for 40 years;\155\ and --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \155\ Id. at 22. In Ethiopia, one South Sudanese refugee camp has been operating for over 25 years.\156\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \156\ UNHCR Ethiopia, Pugnido Refugee Camp (May 2019). The number of protracted refugee situations--formally defined as when more than 25,000 refugees have been displaced more than five years--continues to grow.\157\ In 2018, nine additional crises became protracted, and none were resolved.\158\ Unsurprisingly, people experiencing protracted displacement struggle to obtain essential support for their development and growth, such as reliable access to education, the opportunity to learn employable skills, or sustained employment.\159\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \157\ UNHCR, Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2018, at 22 (June 2019); see map on page 28, ``Protracted Refugee Situations.'' \158\ Id. \159\ See Chapter 3 for further details. [GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] Committee staff analysis based on UNHCR, ``Global trends 2018 annexes and tables,'' June 19, 2019; World Bank, ``GDP (current US$)'' (last --------------------------------------------------------------------------- visited Feb. 27, 2020). Poor Countries Bear a Disproportionate Responsibility Although migrants making the long journey to Europe captured global attention in 2014 and 2015, the overwhelming majority of refugees--nearly 4 in 5--reside in countries directly adjacent to their country of origin.\160\ In addition, 84 percent of refugees and asylum seekers reside in developing countries, which places enormous additional pressure on these countries' already limited resources.\161\ The top ten refugee- hosting countries host 63 percent of the world's refugees, but account for just 7 percent of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP).\162\ Bangladesh received more refugees from Burma in three weeks in 2017 than mainland Europe received in all of 2016, and Bangladesh is responding with just 1.46 percent of the European Union's (EU) GDP.\163\ Elsewhere, in Lebanon, roughly 1 in every 5 inhabitants is a refugee, making it the largest per capita refugee-hosting country in the world.\164\ The influx of more than 1 million Syrian refugees comes at a remarkably difficult time for Lebanon's socioeconomic balance; among many issues, it is one of the most indebted nations in the world.\165\ And Colombia, which already had the world's largest IDP population and hoste