USA TODAY
Susan Page, USA TODAY Susan Page
Poll shows Sen. Roberts, Gov. Brownback trailing their Democratic challengers.
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USAToday
Poll: For the GOP — What's the matter with Kansas?

Greg Orman, an independent candidate who has never won political office, now leads veteran Republican Sen. Pat Roberts of Kansas by 46%-41% in the most surprising Senate race of the year, a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll finds.

In one of the most reliably Republican states in the nation, Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback also trails his Democratic challenger, Paul Davis, 46%-42%.

While there are nearly five weeks to go until Election Day — plenty of time for political twists — the Sunflower State provides a ray of hope for Democrats battling to hold control of the Senate during a year of races that tilt in favor of the GOP. Orman generally has dodged questions about which party he would caucus with in the Senate if he wins, but he's unlikely to provide the sort of solid Republican support that Roberts has during his three terms.

The telephone poll of 500 likely voters, taken Saturday through Tuesday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

In many ways, the survey reflects the classic conservative leanings in the land of Alf Landon and Bob Dole. By 20 percentage points, voters describe themselves as Republicans rather than Democrats. By 21 points, they disapprove of the job President Obama is doing. More than a third say when it comes to politics their most trusted news source is Fox News — more than ABC, CBS and NBC combined.

But for distinct reasons, the Republican candidates in the state's two key contests are behind, and the survey underscores how difficult it will be to turn that around.

Consider what voters say when asked in an open-ended question what word or phrase comes to mind when they hear the names of the Senate candidates.

For Roberts, who is 78, the most frequent specific response is "been in office too long/needs to retire/term limits," followed by "old/elderly." For Orman, who is 45, the two most frequent responses are "change/new/fresh" and "don't know him."

By double digits, 49%-37%, those surveyed disapprove of the job Roberts is doing in the Senate.

"I want to throw the bums out," says Dewayne Dallen, 71, a retiree who lives in Toronto, Kan., population 278. Dallen, who was called in the poll, voted for Roberts before but said in a follow-up interview that he won't again. "Democrat or Republican, they go by what the party says and they don't have enough guts to say, 'Hey, that's not what my constituents want.'" He also plans to vote for Davis.

Tracy Burford, 50, a homemaker from Olathe, says she plans to continue to vote for the Republicans, in part to register her opposition to President Obama and unhappiness with the Affordable Care Act. Still, she acknowledges some disappointment with Brownback's record. "There's always room for improvement," she says.

The poll doesn't show signs that Kansas is trending Democratic. By 48%-36%, those surveyed would vote for the Republican candidate for Congress if the election were held today. The controversial GOP secretary of State, Kris Kobach, leads Democratic challenger Jean Kurtis Schodorf by 45%-40%. Republican Attorney General Derek Schmidt leads Democrat A.J. Kotich by 45%-25%.

But in findings likely to alarm the GOP, in the Senate race, voters who are undecided or supporting the Libertarian candidate split evenly between Roberts and Orman as their second choice. In the gubernatorial contest, that group breaks sharply in favor of Davis as their second choice, 57%-10%.

"The figures are stunning in the deep red state," says Burdett Loomis, a political scientist at the University of Kansas. "Regarding turning things around, it's very possible, but time is getting short. Roberts has never, never been in a competitive race, and is showing his age. Brownback's record is devastating. So it will be tough despite (the influx of) outside money."

Among those voters who know of both Senate candidates, Orman leads Roberts by 52%-40% -- suggesting the independent might be able to stretch his lead as Election Day nears and more voters hear about him.

Roberts survived a Tea Party-fueled primary challenge by radiologist Milton Wolf, but he is still trying to mend fences with the state's most conservative voters. Critics say Roberts has lost touch with his Kansas roots, and he has faced controversy over his failure to maintain a regular residence in the state.

The biggest names in Republican politics have been cycling through the state on Roberts' behalf, from Sarah Palin to Bob Dole. The former Kansas senator, now 91, gets a favorable rating of 73% in the poll. In contrast, Kathleen Sebelius, the state's former Democratic governor and Obama's former secretary of Health and Human Services, is viewed favorably by 41%, unfavorably by 47%.

"How on earth do you get elected in Kansas if you're not a Republican?" asks David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University, in Boston. "It kind of reminds me of strategy in the game Risk. When you have too few armies to take over the world and are destined to lose, you can bow out and let an opponent take your armies to prevent your leading adversary from winning."

That's essentially what happened when Democrat Chad Taylor withdrew from the ballot, leaving what has become a head-to-head race between Roberts and Orman.

Brownback, 58, who briefly sought the Republican presidential nomination in 2008, has put in place deep tax cuts that have contributed to budget shortfalls and raised questions about the state's ability to maintain spending on education and other programs. Davis, 42, is the Democratic leader in the state House.

On another subject, those surveyed say by 44%-40% that they would support putting U.S. combat troops in Iraq to battle the terror group that calls itself the Islamic State. Obama has ruled out the use of American ground forces.

The Kansas survey is the latest in a series of statewide polls sponsored by USA TODAY and Suffolk University in states with key Senate contests. Previous surveys have been taken in Arkansas, Iowa, Michigan and North Carolina.