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Jul 24

On the Role of Reasoning Patterns in the Generalization Discrepancy of Long Chain-of-Thought Supervised Fine-Tuning

Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) on long Chain-of-Thought (CoT) trajectories has become a pivotal phase in building large reasoning models. However, how CoT trajectories from different sources influence the generalization performance of models remains an open question. In this paper, we conduct a comparative study using two sources of verified CoT trajectories generated by two competing models, DeepSeek-R1-0528 and gpt-oss-120b, with their problem sets controlled to be identical. Despite their comparable performance, we uncover a striking paradox: lower training loss does not translate to better generalization. SFT on DeepSeek-R1-0528 data achieves remarkably lower training loss, yet exhibits significantly worse generalization performance on reasoning benchmarks compared to those trained on gpt-oss-120b. To understand this paradox, we perform a multi-faceted analysis probing token-level SFT loss and step-level reasoning behaviors. Our analysis reveals a difference in reasoning patterns. gpt-oss-120b exhibits highly convergent and deductive trajectories, whereas DeepSeek-R1-0528 favors a divergent and branch-heavy exploration pattern. Consequently, models trained with DeepSeek-R1 data inherit inefficient exploration behaviors, often getting trapped in redundant exploratory branches that hinder them from reaching correct solutions. Building upon this insight, we propose a simple yet effective remedy of filtering out frequently branching trajectories to improve the generalization of SFT. Experiments show that training on selected DeepSeek-R1-0528 subsets surprisingly improves reasoning performance by up to 5.1% on AIME25, 5.5% on BeyondAIME, and on average 3.6% on five benchmarks.

  • 9 authors
·
Apr 3

Toward Honest Language Models for Deductive Reasoning

Deductive reasoning is the process of deriving conclusions strictly from the given premises, without relying on external knowledge. We define honesty in this setting as a model's ability to respond only when the conclusion is logically entailed by the premises, and to abstain otherwise. However, current language models often fail to reason honestly, producing unwarranted answers when the input is insufficient. To study this challenge, we formulate honest deductive reasoning as multi-step tasks where models must either derive the correct conclusion or abstain. We curate two datasets from graph structures, one for linear algebra and one for logical inference, and introduce unanswerable cases by randomly perturbing an edge in half of the instances. We find that prompting and existing training methods, including GRPO with or without supervised fine-tuning initialization, struggle on these tasks. In particular, GRPO optimize only for final task outcomes, leaving models vulnerable to collapse when negative rewards dominate early training. To address this, we propose ACNCHOR, a reinforcement learning method that injects ground truth trajectories into rollouts, preventing early training collapse. Our results demonstrate that this method stabilizes learning and significantly improves the overall reasoning performance, underscoring the importance of training dynamics for enabling honest deductive reasoning in language models.

  • 10 authors
·
Nov 12, 2025

Student-in-the-Loop Chain-of-Thought Distillation via Generation-Time Selection

Large reasoning models achieve strong performance on complex tasks through long chain-of-thought (CoT) trajectories, but directly transferring such reasoning processes to smaller models remains challenging. A key difficulty is that not all teacher-generated reasoning trajectories are suitable for student learning. Existing approaches typically rely on post-hoc filtering, selecting trajectories after full generation based on heuristic criteria. However, such methods cannot control the generation process itself and may still produce reasoning paths that lie outside the student's learning capacity. To address this limitation, we propose Gen-SSD (Generation-time Self-Selection Distillation), a student-in-the-loop framework that performs generation-time selection. Instead of passively consuming complete trajectories, the student evaluates candidate continuations during the teacher's sampling process, guiding the expansion of only learnable reasoning paths and enabling early pruning of unhelpful branches. Experiments on mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that Gen-SSD consistently outperforms standard knowledge distillation and recent baselines, with improvements of around 5.9 points over Standard KD and up to 4.7 points over other baselines. Further analysis shows that Gen-SSD produces more stable and learnable reasoning trajectories, highlighting the importance of incorporating supervision during generation for effective distillation.

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 2

Which Reasoning Trajectories Teach Students to Reason Better? A Simple Metric of Informative Alignment

Long chain-of-thought (CoT) trajectories provide rich supervision signals for distilling reasoning from teacher to student LLMs. However, both prior work and our experiments show that trajectories from stronger teachers do not necessarily yield better students, highlighting the importance of data-student suitability in distillation. Existing methods assess suitability primarily through student likelihood, favoring trajectories that closely align with the model's current behavior but overlooking more informative ones. Addressing this, we propose Rank-Surprisal Ratio (RSR), a simple metric that captures both alignment and informativeness to assess the suitability of a reasoning trajectory. RSR is motivated by the observation that effective trajectories typically combine low absolute probability with relatively high-ranked tokens under the student model, balancing learning signal strength and behavioral alignment. Concretely, RSR is defined as the ratio of a trajectory's average token-wise rank to its average negative log-likelihood, and is straightforward to compute and interpret. Across five student models and reasoning trajectories from 11 diverse teachers, RSR strongly correlates with post-training performance (average Spearman 0.86), outperforming existing metrics. We further demonstrate its practical utility in both trajectory selection and teacher selection.

Enhancing Logical Reasoning in Language Models via Symbolically-Guided Monte Carlo Process Supervision

Large language models (LLMs) have shown strong performance in many reasoning benchmarks. However, recent studies have pointed to memorization, rather than generalization, as one of the leading causes for such performance. LLMs, in fact, are susceptible to content variations, demonstrating a lack of robust planning or symbolic abstractions supporting their reasoning process. To improve reliability, many attempts have been made to combine LLMs with symbolic methods. Nevertheless, existing approaches fail to effectively leverage symbolic representations due to the challenges involved in developing reliable and scalable verification mechanisms. In this paper, we propose to overcome such limitations by synthesizing high-quality symbolic reasoning trajectories with stepwise pseudo-labels at scale via Monte Carlo estimation. A Process Reward Model (PRM) can be efficiently trained based on the synthesized data and then used to select more symbolic trajectories. The trajectories are then employed with Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) and Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) to improve logical reasoning and generalization. Our results on benchmarks (i.e., FOLIO and LogicAsker) show the effectiveness of the proposed method with gains on frontier and open-weight models. Moreover, additional experiments on claim verification data reveal that fine-tuning on the generated symbolic reasoning trajectories enhances out-of-domain generalizability, suggesting the potential impact of the proposed method in enhancing planning and logical reasoning.

  • 5 authors
·
May 26, 2025

KG-TRACES: Enhancing Large Language Models with Knowledge Graph-constrained Trajectory Reasoning and Attribution Supervision

Large language models (LLMs) have made remarkable strides in various natural language processing tasks, but their performance on complex reasoning problems remains hindered by a lack of explainability and trustworthiness. This issue, often manifesting as hallucinations or unattributable reasoning processes, limits their applicability in complex reasoning scenarios. To address this, we propose Knowledge Graph-constrained Trajectory Reasoning Attribution and Chain Explanation Supervision (KG-TRACES), a novel framework that enhances the reasoning ability of LLMs through explicit supervision over reasoning paths and processes. KG-TRACES jointly supervises the model to: (1) predict symbolic relation paths, (2) predict full triple-level reasoning paths, and (3) generate attribution-aware reasoning processes grounded in the reasoning paths. At inference phase, the model adapts to both KG-available and KG-unavailable scenarios, retrieving reasoning paths from a KG when possible or predicting plausible reasoning paths with only intrinsic knowledge when not. This design enables the model to reason in an explainable and source-attributable pattern. Through extensive experiments on complex reasoning tasks, we demonstrate that KG-TRACES significantly outperforms existing SOTA: it improves Hits@1 by 1.6% and F1 by 4.7% on WebQSP, and achieves improvements of 4.8% in Hits@1 and 2.1% in F1 on CWQ. Moreover, we show its transferability to specialized domains such as medicine. By visualizing the intermediate steps of reasoning processes, we further show that the explicit supervision introduced by KG-TRACES leads to more stable and goal-directed reasoning processes, aligning closely with correct answers. Code is available at https://github.com/Edaizi/KG-TRACES.

  • 8 authors
·
May 31, 2025

Monitoring the Internal Monologue: Probe Trajectories Reveal Reasoning Dynamics

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) introduce new opportunities for safety monitoring through their Chain of Thought (CoT) reasoning. However, CoT is not always faithful to the model's final output, undermining its reliability as a monitoring tool. To address this, we investigate the hidden representations of LRMs to determine whether future behavior can be predicted from prompt and CoT representations. By evaluating a probe at each generated token, we construct a probe trajectory, the continuous evolution of a concept's probability across the reasoning process. We find that future model behavior is more distinguishable when examined over the full trajectory than from a single static prediction. To characterize these temporal dynamics, we extract signal-processing features that capture volatility, trend, and steady-state behavior, significantly improving the separation of future model states. We also present two methodological insights. First, template-based training data achieves near-parity with dynamically generated model responses, eliminating the need for a costly initial inference and labeling. Second, the choice of pooling operation is critical: average-pooling and last-token methods collapse to near-random performance, while max-pooling achieves up to 95% AUROC and yields stable probe trajectories. Using four datasets and four reasoning models across the domains of safety and mathematics, we demonstrate that trajectory features encode task-specific dynamics that improve outcome separability. These findings establish probe trajectories as a complementary framework for monitoring LRM behavior. Warning: This article contains potentially harmful content.

  • 5 authors
·
May 17 1

MentraSuite: Post-Training Large Language Models for Mental Health Reasoning and Assessment

Mental health disorders affect hundreds of millions globally, and the Web now serves as a primary medium for accessing support, information, and assessment. Large language models (LLMs) offer scalable and accessible assistance, yet their deployment in mental-health settings remains risky when their reasoning is incomplete, inconsistent, or ungrounded. Existing psychological LLMs emphasize emotional understanding or knowledge recall but overlook the step-wise, clinically aligned reasoning required for appraisal, diagnosis, intervention planning, abstraction, and verification. To address these issues, we introduce MentraSuite, a unified framework for advancing reliable mental-health reasoning. We propose MentraBench, a comprehensive benchmark spanning five core reasoning aspects, six tasks, and 13 datasets, evaluating both task performance and reasoning quality across five dimensions: conciseness, coherence, hallucination avoidance, task understanding, and internal consistency. We further present Mindora, a post-trained model optimized through a hybrid SFT-RL framework with an inconsistency-detection reward to enforce faithful and coherent reasoning. To support training, we construct high-quality trajectories using a novel reasoning trajectory generation strategy, that strategically filters difficult samples and applies a structured, consistency-oriented rewriting process to produce concise, readable, and well-balanced trajectories. Across 20 evaluated LLMs, Mindora achieves the highest average performance on MentraBench and shows remarkable performances in reasoning reliability, demonstrating its effectiveness for complex mental-health scenarios.

NextGenWhu CLAIN-WHU
·
Dec 10, 2025 2

'Explaining RL Decisions with Trajectories': A Reproducibility Study

This work investigates the reproducibility of the paper 'Explaining RL decisions with trajectories'. The original paper introduces a novel approach in explainable reinforcement learning based on the attribution decisions of an agent to specific clusters of trajectories encountered during training. We verify the main claims from the paper, which state that (i) training on less trajectories induces a lower initial state value, (ii) trajectories in a cluster present similar high-level patterns, (iii) distant trajectories influence the decision of an agent, and (iv) humans correctly identify the attributed trajectories to the decision of the agent. We recover the environments used by the authors based on the partial original code they provided for one of the environments (Grid-World), and implemented the remaining from scratch (Seaquest, HalfCheetah, Breakout and Q*Bert). While we confirm that (i), (ii), and (iii) partially hold, we extend on the largely qualitative experiments from the authors by introducing a quantitative metric to further support (iii), and new experiments and visual results for (i). Moreover, we investigate the use of different clustering algorithms and encoder architectures to further support (ii). We could not support (iv), given the limited extent of the original experiments. We conclude that, while some of the claims can be supported, further investigations and experiments could be of interest. We recognise the novelty of the work from the authors and hope that our work paves the way for clearer and more transparent approaches.

  • 4 authors
·
Nov 11, 2024

Retro-Search: Exploring Untaken Paths for Deeper and Efficient Reasoning

Large reasoning models exhibit remarkable reasoning capabilities via long, elaborate reasoning trajectories. Supervised fine-tuning on such reasoning traces, also known as distillation, can be a cost-effective way to boost reasoning capabilities of student models. However, empirical observations reveal that these reasoning trajectories are often suboptimal, switching excessively between different lines of thought, resulting in under-thinking, over-thinking, and even degenerate responses. We introduce Retro-Search, an MCTS-inspired search algorithm, for distilling higher quality reasoning paths from large reasoning models. Retro-Search retrospectively revises reasoning paths to discover better, yet shorter traces, which can then lead to student models with enhanced reasoning capabilities with shorter, thus faster inference. Our approach can enable two use cases: self-improvement, where models are fine-tuned on their own Retro-Search-ed thought traces, and weak-to-strong improvement, where a weaker model revises stronger model's thought traces via Retro-Search. For self-improving, R1-distill-7B, fine-tuned on its own Retro-Search-ed traces, reduces the average reasoning length by 31.2% while improving performance by 7.7% across seven math benchmarks. For weak-to-strong improvement, we retrospectively revise R1-671B's traces from the OpenThoughts dataset using R1-distill-32B as the Retro-Search-er, a model 20x smaller. Qwen2.5-32B, fine-tuned on this refined data, achieves performance comparable to R1-distill-32B, yielding an 11.3% reduction in reasoning length and a 2.4% performance improvement compared to fine-tuning on the original OpenThoughts data. Our work counters recently emergent viewpoints that question the relevance of search algorithms in the era of large reasoning models, by demonstrating that there are still opportunities for algorithmic advancements, even for frontier models.

  • 11 authors
·
Apr 6, 2025

Deductive Verification of Chain-of-Thought Reasoning

Large Language Models (LLMs) significantly benefit from Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting in performing various reasoning tasks. While CoT allows models to produce more comprehensive reasoning processes, its emphasis on intermediate reasoning steps can inadvertently introduce hallucinations and accumulated errors, thereby limiting models' ability to solve complex reasoning tasks. Inspired by how humans engage in careful and meticulous deductive logical reasoning processes to solve tasks, we seek to enable language models to perform explicit and rigorous deductive reasoning, and also ensure the trustworthiness of their reasoning process through self-verification. However, directly verifying the validity of an entire deductive reasoning process is challenging, even with advanced models like ChatGPT. In light of this, we propose to decompose a reasoning verification process into a series of step-by-step subprocesses, each only receiving their necessary context and premises. To facilitate this procedure, we propose Natural Program, a natural language-based deductive reasoning format. Our approach enables models to generate precise reasoning steps where subsequent steps are more rigorously grounded on prior steps. It also empowers language models to carry out reasoning self-verification in a step-by-step manner. By integrating this verification process into each deductive reasoning stage, we significantly enhance the rigor and trustfulness of generated reasoning steps. Along this process, we also improve the answer correctness on complex reasoning tasks. Code will be released at https://github.com/lz1oceani/verify_cot.

  • 7 authors
·
Jun 6, 2023

Motion-o: Trajectory-Grounded Video Reasoning

Recent research has made substantial progress on video reasoning, with many models leveraging spatio-temporal evidence chains to strengthen their inference capabilities. At the same time, a growing set of datasets and benchmarks now provides structured annotations designed to support and evaluate such reasoning. However, little attention has been paid to reasoning about how objects move between observations: no prior work has articulated the motion patterns by connecting successive observations, leaving trajectory understanding implicit and difficult to verify. We formalize this missing capability as Spatial-Temporal-Trajectory (STT) reasoning and introduce Motion-o, a motion-centric video understanding extension to visual language models that makes trajectories explicit and verifiable. To enable motion reasoning, we also introduce a trajectory-grounding dataset artifact that expands sparse keyframe supervision via augmentation to yield denser bounding box tracks and a stronger trajectory-level training signal. Finally, we introduce Motion Chain of Thought (MCoT), a structured reasoning pathway that makes object trajectories through discrete <motion/> tag summarizing per-object direction, speed, and scale (of velocity) change to explicitly connect grounded observations into trajectories. To train Motion-o, we design a reward function that compels the model to reason directly over visual evidence, all while requiring no architectural modifications. Empirical results demonstrate that Motion-o improves spatial-temporal grounding and trajectory prediction while remaining fully compatible with existing frameworks, establishing motion reasoning as a critical extension for evidence-based video understanding. Code is available at https://github.com/ostadabbas/Motion-o.

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 19

Can LLMs Reason in the Wild with Programs?

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown superior capability to solve reasoning problems with programs. While being a promising direction, most of such frameworks are trained and evaluated in settings with a prior knowledge of task requirements. However, as LLMs become more capable, it is necessary to assess their reasoning abilities in more realistic scenarios where many real-world problems are open-ended with ambiguous scope, and often require multiple formalisms to solve. To investigate this, we introduce the task of reasoning in the wild, where an LLM is tasked to solve a reasoning problem of unknown type by identifying the subproblems and their corresponding formalisms, and writing a program to solve each subproblem, guided by a tactic. We create a large tactic-guided trajectory dataset containing detailed solutions to a diverse set of reasoning problems, ranging from well-defined single-form reasoning (e.g., math, logic), to ambiguous and hybrid ones (e.g., commonsense, combined math and logic). This allows us to test various aspects of LLMs reasoning at the fine-grained level such as the selection and execution of tactics, and the tendency to take undesired shortcuts. In experiments, we highlight that existing LLMs fail significantly on problems with ambiguous and mixed scope, revealing critical limitations and overfitting issues (e.g. accuracy on GSM8K drops by at least 50\%). We further show the potential of finetuning a local LLM on the tactic-guided trajectories in achieving better performance. Project repo is available at github.com/gblackout/Reason-in-the-Wild

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 19, 2024

Concise and Organized Perception Facilitates Large Language Models for Deductive Reasoning

Exploiting large language models (LLMs) to tackle deductive reasoning has garnered growing attention. It still remains highly challenging to achieve satisfactory results in complex deductive problems, characterized by plenty of premises (i.e., facts or rules) entailing intricate relationships among entities and requiring multi-hop reasoning. One intuitive solution is to decompose the original task into smaller sub-tasks, and then chain the multiple casual reasoning steps together in a forward (e.g., Selection-Inference) or backward (e.g., LAMBADA) direction. However, these techniques inevitably necessitate a large number of overall stages, leading to computationally expensive operations and a higher possibility of making misleading steps. In addition to stage-by-stage decomposition, we draw inspiration from another aspect of human problem-solving. Humans tend to distill the most relevant information and organize their thoughts systematically (e.g., creating mind maps), which assists them in answering questions or drawing conclusions precisely and quickly. In light of this, we propose a novel reasoning approach named Concise and Organized Perception (COP). COP carefully analyzes the given statements to efficiently identify the most pertinent information while eliminating redundancy. It then prompts the LLMs in a more organized form that adapts to the model's inference process. By perceiving concise and organized proofs, the deductive reasoning abilities of LLMs can be better elicited, and the risk of acquiring errors caused by excessive reasoning stages is mitigated. Furthermore, our approach can be combined with the aforementioned ones to further boost their performance. Extensive experimental results on three popular deductive benchmarks (i.e., ProofWriter, PrOntoQA and PrOntoQA-OOD) show that COP significantly outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 5, 2023

SE-Agent: Self-Evolution Trajectory Optimization in Multi-Step Reasoning with LLM-Based Agents

Large Language Model (LLM)-based agents have recently shown impressive capabilities in complex reasoning and tool use via multi-step interactions with their environments. While these agents have the potential to tackle complicated tasks, their problem-solving process, i.e., agents' interaction trajectory leading to task completion, remains underexploited. These trajectories contain rich feedback that can navigate agents toward the right directions for solving problems correctly. Although prevailing approaches, such as Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), can effectively balance exploration and exploitation, they ignore the interdependence among various trajectories and lack the diversity of search spaces, which leads to redundant reasoning and suboptimal outcomes. To address these challenges, we propose SE-Agent, a Self-Evolution framework that enables Agents to optimize their reasoning processes iteratively. Our approach revisits and enhances former pilot trajectories through three key operations: revision, recombination, and refinement. This evolutionary mechanism enables two critical advantages: (1) it expands the search space beyond local optima by intelligently exploring diverse solution paths guided by previous trajectories, and (2) it leverages cross-trajectory inspiration to efficiently enhance performance while mitigating the impact of suboptimal reasoning paths. Through these mechanisms, SE-Agent achieves continuous self-evolution that incrementally improves reasoning quality. We evaluate SE-Agent on SWE-bench Verified to resolve real-world GitHub issues. Experimental results across five strong LLMs show that integrating SE-Agent delivers up to 55% relative improvement, achieving state-of-the-art performance among all open-source agents on SWE-bench Verified. Our code and demonstration materials are publicly available at https://github.com/JARVIS-Xs/SE-Agent.

QuantaAlpha QuantaAlpha
·
Aug 4, 2025

Reasoning Models Don't Just Think Longer, They Move Differently

Reasoning-trained language models often spend more tokens on harder problems, but longer chains of thought do not show whether a model is merely computing for more steps or following a different internal trajectory. We study this distinction through hidden-state trajectories during chain-of-thought generation across competitive programming, mathematics, and Boolean satisfiability. Raw trajectory geometry is strongly shaped by generation length: longer generations mechanically alter path statistics, so difficulty-dependent comparisons are misleading without adjustment. After residualizing trajectory statistics on length, difficulty remains systematically coupled to corrected trajectory geometry across all domains studied. The clearest reasoning-specific separation appears in the code domain, where harder problems show more direct corrected trajectories and less heterogeneous local curvature in reasoning-trained models than in matched instruction-tuned baselines. Corrected difficulty-geometry coupling is weaker, but still present, in mathematics and Boolean satisfiability. Prompt-stage linear probes do not mirror the code-domain separation, and behavioral annotations show that stronger corrected coupling co-occurs with strategy shifts and uncertainty monitoring. Together, these findings establish length correction as a prerequisite for generation-time trajectory analysis and show that reasoning training can be associated with distinct corrected trajectory geometry, with the strength of the effect depending on the domain.

  • 3 authors
·
May 13

Unsupervised Skill Discovery for Agentic Data Analysis

Inference-time skill augmentation provides a lightweight way to improve data-analytic agents by injecting reusable procedural knowledge without updating model parameters. However, discovering effective skills for data analysis remains challenging, as reliable supervision is expensive and success criteria vary across analytical formats. This raises the key question of how to discover reusable data-analysis skills from unlabeled exploration alone. We propose DataCOPE, an unsupervised verifier-guided skill discovery framework for data-analytic agents. DataCOPE derives verifier signals from the exploration trajectories and uses them to characterize relative quality or aggreement among trajectories. It iteratively coordinates a Data-Analytic Agent for trajectory generation, an Unsupervised Verifier for signal extraction, and a Skill Manager for contrastive skill distillation. For report-style analysis, we instantiate the verifier as an Adaptive Checklist Verifier that derives task-specific criteria, scores reports by verifiable coverage, and iteratively refines the checklist. For reasoning-style analysis, we instantiate it as an Answer Agreement Verifier that groups trajectories by answer agreement and uses self-consistency as an auxiliary signal. We evaluate DataCOPE on report-style analysis from Deep Data Research and reasoning-style analysis from DABStep. Across both settings, DataCOPE consistently improves held-out performance over baselines. Averaged across four model settings, DataCOPE improves the mean score by 9.71% and 32.30% on report-style and reasoning-style tasks respectively.

zjunlp ZJUNLP
·
Jun 3 2

TrajPrism: A Multi-Task Benchmark for Language-Grounded Urban Trajectory Understanding

Urban mobility is naturally expressed both as trajectories in space and as natural-language descriptions of travel intent, constraints, and preferences. However, prior work rarely evaluates these two modalities together on the same real-world trajectories: trajectory modeling often stays geometry-centric, while language-centric mobility benchmarks frequently target route planning and tool use rather than fine-grained, verifiable alignment between text and the underlying route. We introduce TrajPrism, a multi-task benchmark for language-trajectory alignment that unifies (i) instruction-conditioned trajectory generation, (ii) language-driven semantic trajectory retrieval, and (iii) trajectory captioning, together with an evaluation protocol that measures trajectory fidelity, retrieval quality, and language groundedness. We construct TrajPrism by pairing real urban trajectories with judge-filtered language annotations generated under a four-dimensional travel-intent taxonomy. The benchmark contains 300K selected trajectories across Porto, San Francisco, and Beijing, yielding 2.1M task instances from three instruction variants, three retrieval queries, and one caption per trajectory. We further develop proof-of-concept models for each task: TrajAnchor for instruction-conditioned trajectory generation, TrajFuse for semantic trajectory retrieval, and TrajRap for trajectory captioning. These models instantiate the proposed tasks and show that geometry-only trajectory baselines leave a large gap on our protocol, especially where language is part of the input-output interface. We release TrajPrism with code and a reproducible annotation pipeline that is designed to be portable across cities, given compatible trajectory inputs and map resources.

  • 9 authors
·
May 10

Tracing the Traces: Latent Temporal Signals for Efficient and Accurate Reasoning

Reasoning models improve their problem-solving ability through inference-time scaling, allocating more compute via longer token budgets. Identifying which reasoning traces are likely to succeed remains a key opportunity: reliably predicting productive paths can substantially reduce wasted computation and improve overall efficiency. We introduce Latent-Trajectory signals that characterize the temporal evolution of a model's internal representations during the generation of intermediate reasoning tokens. By measuring the overall change in latent representations between the start and end of reasoning, the change accumulated across intermediate steps, and the extent to which these changes advance toward the final state, we show that these signals predict solution accuracy more reliably than both cross-layer metrics and output-based confidence measures. When used to guide answer selection across multiple sampled generations, Latent-Trajectory signals make test-time scaling more effective and efficient than majority voting, reducing token usage by up to 70% while preserving and even improving accuracy by 2.6% on average. Moreover, these predictive signals often emerge early in the reasoning trace, enabling early selection and allocation of compute to the most promising candidates. Our findings contribute not only practical strategies for inference-time efficiency, but also a deeper interpretability perspective on how reasoning processes are represented and differentiated in latent space.

MicrosoftResearch Microsoft Research
·
Oct 12, 2025 2

TRAJEVAL: Decomposing Code Agent Trajectories for Fine-Grained Diagnosis

Code agents can autonomously resolve GitHub issues, yet when they fail, current evaluation provides no visibility into where or why. Metrics such as Pass@1 collapse an entire execution into a single binary outcome, making it difficult to identify where and why the agent went wrong. To address this limitation, we introduce TRAJEVAL, a diagnostic framework that decomposes agent trajectories into three interpretable stages: search (file localization), read (function comprehension), and edit (modification targeting). For each stage, we compute precision and recall by comparing against reference patches. Analyzing 16,758 trajectories across three agent architectures and seven models, we find universal inefficiencies (all agents examine approximately 22x more functions than necessary) yet distinct failure modes: GPT-5 locates relevant code but targets edits incorrectly, while Qwen-32B fails at file discovery entirely. We validate that these diagnostics are predictive, achieving model-level Pass@1 prediction within 0.87-2.1% MAE, and actionable: real-time feedback based on trajectory signals improves two state-of-the-art models by 2.2-4.6 percentage points while reducing costs by 20-31%. These results demonstrate that our framework not only provides a more fine-grained analysis of agent behavior, but also translates diagnostic signals into tangible performance gains. More broadly, TRAJEVAL transforms agent evaluation beyond outcome-based benchmarking toward mechanism-driven diagnosis of agent success and failure.

  • 9 authors
·
Mar 24

A Survey of Reasoning and Agentic Systems in Time Series with Large Language Models

Time series reasoning treats time as a first-class axis and incorporates intermediate evidence directly into the answer. This survey defines the problem and organizes the literature by reasoning topology with three families: direct reasoning in one step, linear chain reasoning with explicit intermediates, and branch-structured reasoning that explores, revises, and aggregates. The topology is crossed with the main objectives of the field, including traditional time series analysis, explanation and understanding, causal inference and decision making, and time series generation, while a compact tag set spans these axes and captures decomposition and verification, ensembling, tool use, knowledge access, multimodality, agent loops, and LLM alignment regimes. Methods and systems are reviewed across domains, showing what each topology enables and where it breaks down in faithfulness or robustness, along with curated datasets, benchmarks, and resources that support study and deployment (https://github.com/blacksnail789521/Time-Series-Reasoning-Survey). Evaluation practices that keep evidence visible and temporally aligned are highlighted, and guidance is distilled on matching topology to uncertainty, grounding with observable artifacts, planning for shift and streaming, and treating cost and latency as design budgets. We emphasize that reasoning structures must balance capacity for grounding and self-correction against computational cost and reproducibility, while future progress will likely depend on benchmarks that tie reasoning quality to utility and on closed-loop testbeds that trade off cost and risk under shift-aware, streaming, and long-horizon settings. Taken together, these directions mark a shift from narrow accuracy toward reliability at scale, enabling systems that not only analyze but also understand, explain, and act on dynamic worlds with traceable evidence and credible outcomes.

  • 11 authors
·
Sep 15, 2025

Semi-Supervised Offline Reinforcement Learning with Action-Free Trajectories

Natural agents can effectively learn from multiple data sources that differ in size, quality, and types of measurements. We study this heterogeneity in the context of offline reinforcement learning (RL) by introducing a new, practically motivated semi-supervised setting. Here, an agent has access to two sets of trajectories: labelled trajectories containing state, action and reward triplets at every timestep, along with unlabelled trajectories that contain only state and reward information. For this setting, we develop and study a simple meta-algorithmic pipeline that learns an inverse dynamics model on the labelled data to obtain proxy-labels for the unlabelled data, followed by the use of any offline RL algorithm on the true and proxy-labelled trajectories. Empirically, we find this simple pipeline to be highly successful -- on several D4RL benchmarks~fu2020d4rl, certain offline RL algorithms can match the performance of variants trained on a fully labelled dataset even when we label only 10\% of trajectories which are highly suboptimal. To strengthen our understanding, we perform a large-scale controlled empirical study investigating the interplay of data-centric properties of the labelled and unlabelled datasets, with algorithmic design choices (e.g., choice of inverse dynamics, offline RL algorithm) to identify general trends and best practices for training RL agents on semi-supervised offline datasets.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 12, 2022

Forecasting Future Behavior as a Learning Task

Trust in an AI system is often anchored by explanations of how it works, which one then uses to forecast its behavior on new inputs. For large reasoning models (LRMs), this conventional route is particularly difficult to follow: explanation methods for single token generations do not naturally generalize to long trajectories, and the trajectories themselves are often not faithful when read as natural language. We propose an alternative that bypasses the explanation step: treat behavior forecasting as a learnable task and train Behavior Forecasters that operates on a single reasoning trajectory to make the same forecasts one would typically seek from an explanation. The forecaster's training data is obtained by querying the LRM with no human annotation, and its inference is done in a single forward pass. We instantiate this approach on two tasks: how likely the LRM is to repeat its answer on re-runs, and how removing parts of the input changes its answer. We evaluate this approach on both tasks across three diverse reasoning datasets and find that trained Behavior Forecasters are more accurate than GPT-5.4 and Claude Opus-4.6 reading the same trajectories as naive readers, at a small fraction of their inference cost. We find that fine-tuning the backbone end-to-end and initializing it from the target LRM are each necessary for strong performance. These results show that the reasoning trajectory carries information about the LRM's future behavior that goes beyond what naive reading conveys.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 8 2

Progressive Pretext Task Learning for Human Trajectory Prediction

Human trajectory prediction is a practical task of predicting the future positions of pedestrians on the road, which typically covers all temporal ranges from short-term to long-term within a trajectory. However, existing works attempt to address the entire trajectory prediction with a singular, uniform training paradigm, neglecting the distinction between short-term and long-term dynamics in human trajectories. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a novel Progressive Pretext Task learning (PPT) framework, which progressively enhances the model's capacity of capturing short-term dynamics and long-term dependencies for the final entire trajectory prediction. Specifically, we elaborately design three stages of training tasks in the PPT framework. In the first stage, the model learns to comprehend the short-term dynamics through a stepwise next-position prediction task. In the second stage, the model is further enhanced to understand long-term dependencies through a destination prediction task. In the final stage, the model aims to address the entire future trajectory task by taking full advantage of the knowledge from previous stages. To alleviate the knowledge forgetting, we further apply a cross-task knowledge distillation. Additionally, we design a Transformer-based trajectory predictor, which is able to achieve highly efficient two-step reasoning by integrating a destination-driven prediction strategy and a group of learnable prompt embeddings. Extensive experiments on popular benchmarks have demonstrated that our proposed approach achieves state-of-the-art performance with high efficiency. Code is available at https://github.com/iSEE-Laboratory/PPT.

  • 4 authors
·
Jul 16, 2024

Understanding by Reconstruction: Reversing the Software Development Process for LLM Pretraining

While Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success in code generation, they often struggle with the deep, long-horizon reasoning required for complex software engineering. We attribute this limitation to the nature of standard pre-training data: static software repositories represent only the terminal state of an intricate intellectual process, abstracting away the intermediate planning, debugging, and iterative refinement. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel paradigm: understanding via reconstruction. We hypothesize that reverse-engineering the latent agentic trajectories -- the planning, reasoning, and debugging steps -- behind static repositories provides a far richer supervision signal than raw code alone. To operationalize this, we introduce a framework that synthesizes these trajectories using a multi-agent simulation. This process is grounded in the structural realities of the source repositories (e.g., dependency graphs and file hierarchies) to ensure fidelity. Furthermore, to guarantee the logical rigor of the synthetic data, we employ a search-based optimization technique that iteratively refines the Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning to maximize the likelihood of the ground-truth code. Empirical results demonstrate that continuous pre-training on these reconstructed trajectories significantly enhances Llama-3-8B's performance across diverse benchmarks, including long-context understanding, coding proficiency, and agentic capabilities.

Procedural Knowledge at Scale Improves Reasoning

Test-time scaling has emerged as an effective way to improve language models on challenging reasoning tasks. However, most existing methods treat each problem in isolation and do not systematically reuse knowledge from prior reasoning trajectories. In particular, they underutilize procedural knowledge: how to reframe a problem, choose an approach, and verify or backtrack when needed. We introduce Reasoning Memory, a retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) framework for reasoning models that explicitly retrieves and reuses procedural knowledge at scale. Starting from existing corpora of step-by-step reasoning trajectories, we decompose each trajectory into self-contained subquestion-subroutine pairs, yielding a datastore of 32 million compact procedural knowledge entries. At inference time, a lightweight in-thought prompt lets the model verbalize the core subquestion, retrieve relevant subroutines within its reasoning trace, and reason under diverse retrieved subroutines as implicit procedural priors. Across six math, science, and coding benchmarks, Reasoning Memory consistently outperforms RAG with document, trajectory, and template knowledge, as well as a compute-matched test-time scaling baseline. With a higher inference budget, it improves over no retrieval by up to 19.2% and over the strongest compute-matched baseline by 7.9% across task types. Ablation studies show that these gains come from two key factors: the broad procedural coverage of the source trajectories and our decomposition and retrieval design, which together enable effective extraction and reuse of procedural knowledge.

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 31

Reproducible, Explainable, and Effective Evaluations of Agentic AI for Software Engineering

With the advancement of Agentic AI, researchers are increasingly leveraging autonomous agents to address challenges in software engineering (SE). However, the large language models (LLMs) that underpin these agents often function as black boxes, making it difficult to justify the superiority of Agentic AI approaches over baselines. Furthermore, missing information in the evaluation design description frequently renders the reproduction of results infeasible. To synthesize current evaluation practices for Agentic AI in SE, this study analyzes 18 papers on the topic, published or accepted by ICSE 2026, ICSE 2025, FSE 2025, ASE 2025, and ISSTA 2025. The analysis identifies prevailing approaches and their limitations in evaluating Agentic AI for SE, both in current research and potential future studies. To address these shortcomings, this position paper proposes a set of guidelines and recommendations designed to empower reproducible, explainable, and effective evaluations of Agentic AI in software engineering. In particular, we recommend that Agentic AI researchers make their Thought-Action-Result (TAR) trajectories and LLM interaction data, or summarized versions of these artifacts, publicly accessible. Doing so will enable subsequent studies to more effectively analyze the strengths and weaknesses of different Agentic AI approaches. To demonstrate the feasibility of such comparisons, we present a proof-of-concept case study that illustrates how TAR trajectories can support systematic analysis across approaches.

  • 2 authors
·
Mar 31

Anatomy of a Lie: A Multi-Stage Diagnostic Framework for Tracing Hallucinations in Vision-Language Models

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) frequently "hallucinate" - generate plausible yet factually incorrect statements - posing a critical barrier to their trustworthy deployment. In this work, we propose a new paradigm for diagnosing hallucinations, recasting them from static output errors into dynamic pathologies of a model's computational cognition. Our framework is grounded in a normative principle of computational rationality, allowing us to model a VLM's generation as a dynamic cognitive trajectory. We design a suite of information-theoretic probes that project this trajectory onto an interpretable, low-dimensional Cognitive State Space. Our central discovery is a governing principle we term the geometric-information duality: a cognitive trajectory's geometric abnormality within this space is fundamentally equivalent to its high information-theoretic surprisal. Hallucination detection is counts as a geometric anomaly detection problem. Evaluated across diverse settings - from rigorous binary QA (POPE) and comprehensive reasoning (MME) to unconstrained open-ended captioning (MS-COCO) - our framework achieves state-of-the-art performance. Crucially, it operates with high efficiency under weak supervision and remains highly robust even when calibration data is heavily contaminated. This approach enables a causal attribution of failures, mapping observable errors to distinct pathological states: perceptual instability (measured by Perceptual Entropy), logical-causal failure (measured by Inferential Conflict), and decisional ambiguity (measured by Decision Entropy). Ultimately, this opens a path toward building AI systems whose reasoning is transparent, auditable, and diagnosable by design.

LAMMI-Pathology: A Tool-Centric Bottom-Up LVLM-Agent Framework for Molecularly Informed Medical Intelligence in Pathology

The emergence of tool-calling-based agent systems introduces a more evidence-driven paradigm for pathology image analysis in contrast to the coarse-grained text-image diagnostic approaches. With the recent large-scale experimental adoption of spatial transcriptomics technologies, molecularly validated pathological diagnosis is becoming increasingly open and accessible. In this work, we propose LAMMI-Pathology (LVLM-Agent System for Molecularly Informed Medical Intelligence in Pathology), a scalable agent framework for domain-specific agent tool-calling. LAMMI-Pathology adopts a tool-centric, bottom-up architecture in which customized domain-adaptive tools serve as the foundation. These tools are clustered by domain style to form component agents, which are then coordinated through a top-level planner hierarchically, avoiding excessively long context lengths that could induce task drift. Based on that, we introduce a novel trajectory construction mechanism based on Atomic Execution Nodes (AENs), which serve as reliable and composable units for building semi-simulated reasoning trajectories that capture credible agent-tool interactions. Building on this foundation, we develop a trajectory-aware fine-tuning strategy that aligns the planner's decision-making process with these multi-step reasoning trajectories, thereby enhancing inference robustness in pathology understanding and its adaptive use of the customized toolset.

  • 3 authors
·
Feb 21

Beneficial Reasoning Behaviors in Agentic Search and Effective Post-training to Obtain Them

Agentic search leverages LLMs to solve complex user information needs by executing a multi-step process of planning, searching, and synthesizing information to provide answers. This paradigm introduces unique challenges for LLMs' agentic reasoning capabilities when interacting with search systems. In this paper, we propose an LLM-based pipeline to study effective reasoning behavior patterns in agentic search by analyzing agentic search trajectories. Using this pipeline, we identify four beneficial reasoning behaviors: Information Verification, Authority Evaluation, Adaptive Search, and Error Recovery. Based on these findings, we propose a technique called Behavior Priming to train agentic search models. It synthesizes trajectories that exhibit these four behaviors and integrates them into the agentic search model through SFT, followed by standard reinforcement learning. Experiments on Qwen3-1.7B and Llama3.2-3B-Instruct across three web benchmarks and seven multi-hop QA benchmarks demonstrate that behavior priming 1) yields significant performance gains compared to training with direct RL, and 2) outperforms other SFT-then-RL baselines, such as those SFT on randomly selected trajectories or on trajectories with merely correct outcomes. Crucially, we demonstrate that the reasoning behaviors, rather than the correctness of the final answer, is the critical factor for achieving strong performance in RL: SFT on trajectories with reasoning behaviors but incorrect answers leads to comparable performance with SFT on those with reasoning behaviors and correct answers. Our analysis further reveals that the introduced reasoning behaviors endow models with more effective exploration (higher pass@k and entropy) and test-time scaling (longer trajectories) capabilities, providing a strong foundation for RL. Our code are avalible at https://github.com/cxcscmu/Behavior_Priming_For_Agentic_Search.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 7, 2025

Tracing Agentic Failure from the Flow of Success

Failure attribution for LLM-based agentic systems, i.e., identifying which steps in a failure trajectory caused the task to fail, is critical for debugging and improving these systems. Existing approaches either rely on prompting-based pipelines, which are computationally expensive, or require post-training on failure trajectories with step-level error annotations, which are costly to collect and difficult to scale. We argue that a practical failure attribution model should be lightweight and trainable without step-level supervision on failure data. To this end, we address unsupervised failure attribution, i.e., training exclusively on successful trajectories and identifying error steps at inference time given a failure trajectory. We propose OAT, which casts this problem as one-class learning with neural controlled differential equations, modeling the dynamical pattern of successful trajectories in latent space. At inference time, each step in a failure trajectory is assigned an anomaly score based on its deviation from the dynamics learned on successful trajectories, which is then used to form a set of error steps. With training on only 100 successful trajectories, experiments show that OAT is 200--5000 times faster than prompting-based baselines, and, at the same time, consistently outperforms them in both in-domain and out-of-distribution datasets with +20% and +7% F1 scores, respectively, demonstrating that OAT is a promising and efficient direction for diagnosing agentic system failures.

  • 4 authors
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Jul 13 2

Reasoning Model is Stubborn: Diagnosing Instruction Overriding in Reasoning Models

Large language models have demonstrated remarkable proficiency in long and complex reasoning tasks. However, they frequently exhibit a problematic reliance on familiar reasoning patterns, a phenomenon we term reasoning rigidity. Despite explicit instructions from users, these models often override clearly stated conditions and default to habitual reasoning trajectories, leading to incorrect conclusions. This behavior presents significant challenges, particularly in domains such as mathematics and logic puzzle, where precise adherence to specified constraints is critical. To systematically investigate reasoning rigidity, a behavior largely unexplored in prior work, we introduce a expert-curated diagnostic set, . Our dataset includes specially modified variants of existing mathematical benchmarks, namely AIME and MATH500, as well as well-known puzzles deliberately redesigned to require deviation from familiar reasoning strategies. Using this dataset, we identify recurring contamination patterns that occur when models default to ingrained reasoning. Specifically, we categorize this contamination into three distinctive modes: (i) Interpretation Overload, (ii) Input Distrust, and (iii) Partial Instruction Attention, each causing models to ignore or distort provided instructions. We publicly release our diagnostic set to facilitate future research on mitigating reasoning rigidity in language models.

  • 5 authors
·
May 22, 2025 2

EduFlow: Advancing MLLMs' Problem-Solving Proficiency through Multi-Stage, Multi-Perspective Critique

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) still perform poorly on scientific tasks, particularly those requiring multi-step and interpretable reasoning. Their limitations include insufficient scientific reasoning patterns, lack of global coherence in multi-step inference, and the absence of reflective self-correction, making them unreliable in structured scientific contexts. We introduce EduFlow, the first end-to-end framework that covers the full pipeline of educational scientific reasoning, including data selection, MCTS-based trajectory construction, model training, and output optimization. At its core is EduPRM, a process-aware reward model that critiques reasoning steps with tags and justifications. EduPRM is trained via curriculum learning on three complementary supervision sources: MCTS-guided trajectories, error-injected critiques, and teacher-student dialogues, enabling dynamic adaptation to multi-stage problem solving and iterative refinement during inference. We further propose EduMCTS, a domain-adapted search framework that introduces bootstrapping actions specifically designed for educational reasoning, such as a self-reflection mechanism that promotes reflective error correction. It further leverages EduPRM's fine-grained feedback to guide the search toward higher-quality reasoning trajectories. By applying self-consistency and rejection sampling, we constructed EduMCTS-160K, a large-scale dataset of educational reasoning trajectories. Extensive experiments demonstrate that EduFlow enhances reasoning consistency and coherence. Code, data, and models will be released.

  • 6 authors
·
Jul 12, 2025

Signals: Trajectory Sampling and Triage for Agentic Interactions

Agentic applications based on large language models increasingly rely on multi-step interaction loops involving planning, action execution, and environment feedback. While such systems are now deployed at scale, improving them post-deployment remains challenging. Agent trajectories are voluminous and non-deterministic, and reviewing each one, whether through human review or auxiliary LLMs, is slow and cost-prohibitive. We propose a lightweight, signal-based framework for triaging agentic interaction trajectories. Our approach computes cheap, broadly applicable signals from live interactions and attaches them as structured attributes for trajectory triage, identifying interactions likely to be informative without affecting online agent behavior. We organize signals into a coarse-grained taxonomy spanning interaction (misalignment, stagnation, disengagement, satisfaction), execution (failure, loop), and environment (exhaustion), designed for computation without model calls. In a controlled annotation study on τ-bench, a widely used benchmark for tool-augmented agent evaluation, we show that signal-based sampling achieves an 82\% informativeness rate compared to 74\% for heuristic filtering and 54\% for random sampling, with a 1.52x efficiency gain per informative trajectory. The advantage is robust across reward strata and task domains, confirming that signals provide genuine per-trajectory informativeness gains rather than merely oversampling obvious failures. These results show that lightweight signals can serve as practical sampling infrastructure for agentic systems, and suggest a path toward preference data construction and post-deployment optimization.

digitalocean DigitalOcean
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Mar 31 2

Executable Counterfactuals: Improving LLMs' Causal Reasoning Through Code

Counterfactual reasoning, a hallmark of intelligence, consists of three steps: inferring latent variables from observations (abduction), constructing alternatives (interventions), and predicting their outcomes (prediction). This skill is essential for advancing LLMs' causal understanding and expanding their applications in high-stakes domains such as scientific research. However, existing efforts in assessing LLM's counterfactual reasoning capabilities tend to skip the abduction step, effectively reducing to interventional reasoning and leading to overestimation of LLM performance. To address this, we introduce executable counterfactuals, a novel framework that operationalizes causal reasoning through code and math problems. Our framework explicitly requires all three steps of counterfactual reasoning and enables scalable synthetic data creation with varying difficulty, creating a frontier for evaluating and improving LLM's reasoning. Our results reveal substantial drop in accuracy (25-40%) from interventional to counterfactual reasoning for SOTA models like o4-mini and Claude-4-Sonnet. To address this gap, we construct a training set comprising counterfactual code problems having if-else condition and test on out-of-domain code structures (e.g. having while-loop); we also test whether a model trained on code would generalize to counterfactual math word problems. While supervised finetuning on stronger models' reasoning traces improves in-domain performance of Qwen models, it leads to a decrease in accuracy on OOD tasks such as counterfactual math problems. In contrast, reinforcement learning induces the core cognitive behaviors and generalizes to new domains, yielding gains over the base model on both code (improvement of 1.5x-2x) and math problems. Analysis of the reasoning traces reinforces these findings and highlights the promise of RL for improving LLMs' counterfactual reasoning.

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 1, 2025

LLM-Assisted Content Analysis: Using Large Language Models to Support Deductive Coding

Deductive coding is a widely used qualitative research method for determining the prevalence of themes across documents. While useful, deductive coding is often burdensome and time consuming since it requires researchers to read, interpret, and reliably categorize a large body of unstructured text documents. Large language models (LLMs), like ChatGPT, are a class of quickly evolving AI tools that can perform a range of natural language processing and reasoning tasks. In this study, we explore the use of LLMs to reduce the time it takes for deductive coding while retaining the flexibility of a traditional content analysis. We outline the proposed approach, called LLM-assisted content analysis (LACA), along with an in-depth case study using GPT-3.5 for LACA on a publicly available deductive coding data set. Additionally, we conduct an empirical benchmark using LACA on 4 publicly available data sets to assess the broader question of how well GPT-3.5 performs across a range of deductive coding tasks. Overall, we find that GPT-3.5 can often perform deductive coding at levels of agreement comparable to human coders. Additionally, we demonstrate that LACA can help refine prompts for deductive coding, identify codes for which an LLM is randomly guessing, and help assess when to use LLMs vs. human coders for deductive coding. We conclude with several implications for future practice of deductive coding and related research methods.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 23, 2023

Causal Inference by String Diagram Surgery

Extracting causal relationships from observed correlations is a growing area in probabilistic reasoning, originating with the seminal work of Pearl and others from the early 1990s. This paper develops a new, categorically oriented view based on a clear distinction between syntax (string diagrams) and semantics (stochastic matrices), connected via interpretations as structure-preserving functors. A key notion in the identification of causal effects is that of an intervention, whereby a variable is forcefully set to a particular value independent of any prior propensities. We represent the effect of such an intervention as an endofunctor which performs `string diagram surgery' within the syntactic category of string diagrams. This diagram surgery in turn yields a new, interventional distribution via the interpretation functor. While in general there is no way to compute interventional distributions purely from observed data, we show that this is possible in certain special cases using a calculational tool called comb disintegration. We demonstrate the use of this technique on a well-known toy example, where we predict the causal effect of smoking on cancer in the presence of a confounding common cause. After developing this specific example, we show this technique provides simple sufficient conditions for computing interventions which apply to a wide variety of situations considered in the causal inference literature.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 20, 2018

Learning from Mistakes: Negative Reasoning Samples Enhance Out-of-Domain Generalization

Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on chain-of-thought (CoT) trajectories demonstrations is a common approach for enabling reasoning in large language models. Standard practices typically only retain trajectories with correct final answers (positives) while ignoring the rest (negatives). We argue that this paradigm discards substantial supervision and exacerbates overfitting, limiting out-of-domain (OOD) generalization. Specifically, we surprisingly find that incorporating negative trajectories into SFT yields substantial OOD generalization gains over positive-only training, as these trajectories often retain valid intermediate reasoning despite incorrect final answers. To understand this effect in depth, we systematically analyze data, training dynamics, and inference behavior, identifying 22 recurring patterns in negative chains that serve a dual role: they moderate loss descent to mitigate overfitting during training and boost policy entropy by 35.67% during inference to facilitate exploration. Motivated by these observations, we further propose Gain-based LOss Weighting (GLOW), an adaptive, sample-aware scheme that exploits such distinctive training dynamics by rescaling per-sample loss based on inter-epoch progress. Empirically, GLOW efficiently leverages unfiltered trajectories, yielding a 5.51% OOD gain over positive-only SFT on Qwen2.5-7B and boosting MMLU from 72.82% to 76.47% as an RL initialization.

  • 9 authors
·
Jan 8

Boule or Baguette? A Study on Task Topology, Length Generalization, and the Benefit of Reasoning Traces

Recent years have witnessed meteoric progress in reasoning models: neural networks that generate intermediate reasoning traces (RTs) before producing a final output. Despite the rapid advancement, our understanding of how RTs support reasoning, and the limits of this paradigm, remain incomplete. To promote greater clarity, we introduce PITA: a novel large-scale dataset of over 23 million statements in propositional logic and their corresponding proofs. As a benchmark for robust reasoning, we focus on length generalization: if a model is trained to determine truth or falsity on statements with proofs up to fixed length, how well does it generalize to statements requiring longer proofs? We propose notions of (1) task depth and (2) task breadth, which measure respectively (1) the number of steps required to solve an example from a task and (2) the number of unique examples across a task. We vary these quantities across subsets of PITA, and find that RT models generalize well on broad and shallow subsets, while deteriorating on narrow and deep subsets relative to non-RT baselines. To determine whether our results are idiosyncratic to PITA or indicative of general phenomena, we compare our results to a simple synthetic task based on syllogisms. Our resulting theory suggests fundamental scalings that limit how well RT models perform on deep tasks, and highlights their generalization strengths on broad tasks. Our findings overall identify fundamental benefits and limitations inherent in using reasoning traces.

  • 3 authors
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Feb 15

DOTS: Learning to Reason Dynamically in LLMs via Optimal Reasoning Trajectories Search

Enhancing the capability of large language models (LLMs) in reasoning has gained significant attention in recent years. Previous studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of various prompting strategies in aiding LLMs in reasoning (called "reasoning actions"), such as step-by-step thinking, reflecting before answering, solving with programs, and their combinations. However, these approaches often applied static, predefined reasoning actions uniformly to all questions, without considering the specific characteristics of each question or the capability of the task-solving LLM. In this paper, we propose DOTS, an approach enabling LLMs to reason dynamically via optimal reasoning trajectory search, tailored to the specific characteristics of each question and the inherent capability of the task-solving LLM. Our approach involves three key steps: i) defining atomic reasoning action modules that can be composed into various reasoning action trajectories; ii) searching for the optimal action trajectory for each training question through iterative exploration and evaluation for the specific task-solving LLM; and iii) using the collected optimal trajectories to train an LLM to plan for the reasoning trajectories of unseen questions. In particular, we propose two learning paradigms, i.e., fine-tuning an external LLM as a planner to guide the task-solving LLM, or directly fine-tuning the task-solving LLM with an internalized capability for reasoning actions planning. Our experiments across eight reasoning tasks show that our method consistently outperforms static reasoning techniques and the vanilla instruction tuning approach. Further analysis reveals that our method enables LLMs to adjust their computation based on problem complexity, allocating deeper thinking and reasoning to harder problems.

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 4, 2024 2

Towards Robust and Adaptive Motion Forecasting: A Causal Representation Perspective

Learning behavioral patterns from observational data has been a de-facto approach to motion forecasting. Yet, the current paradigm suffers from two shortcomings: brittle under distribution shifts and inefficient for knowledge transfer. In this work, we propose to address these challenges from a causal representation perspective. We first introduce a causal formalism of motion forecasting, which casts the problem as a dynamic process with three groups of latent variables, namely invariant variables, style confounders, and spurious features. We then introduce a learning framework that treats each group separately: (i) unlike the common practice mixing datasets collected from different locations, we exploit their subtle distinctions by means of an invariance loss encouraging the model to suppress spurious correlations; (ii) we devise a modular architecture that factorizes the representations of invariant mechanisms and style confounders to approximate a sparse causal graph; (iii) we introduce a style contrastive loss that not only enforces the structure of style representations but also serves as a self-supervisory signal for test-time refinement on the fly. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets show that our proposed method improves the robustness and reusability of learned motion representations, significantly outperforming prior state-of-the-art motion forecasting models for out-of-distribution generalization and low-shot transfer.

  • 5 authors
·
Nov 29, 2021

Where Did This Sentence Come From? Tracing Provenance in LLM Reasoning Distillation

Reasoning distillation has attracted increasing attention. It typically leverages a large teacher model to generate reasoning paths, which are then used to fine-tune a student model so that it mimics the teacher's behavior in training contexts. However, previous approaches have lacked a detailed analysis of the origins of the distilled model's capabilities. It remains unclear whether the student can maintain consistent behaviors with the teacher in novel test-time contexts, or whether it regresses to its original output patterns, raising concerns about the generalization of distillation models. To analyse this question, we introduce a cross-model Reasoning Distillation Provenance Tracing framework. For each action (e.g., a sentence) produced by the distilled model, we obtain the predictive probabilities assigned by the teacher, the original student, and the distilled model under the same context. By comparing these probabilities, we classify each action into different categories. By systematically disentangling the provenance of each action, we experimentally demonstrate that, in test-time contexts, the distilled model can indeed generate teacher-originated actions, which correlate with and plausibly explain observed performance on distilled model. Building on this analysis, we further propose a teacher-guided data selection method. Unlike prior approach that rely on heuristics, our method directly compares teacher-student divergences on the training data, providing a principled selection criterion. We validate the effectiveness of our approach across multiple representative teacher models and diverse student models. The results highlight the utility of our provenance-tracing framework and underscore its promise for reasoning distillation. We hope to share Reasoning Distillation Provenance Tracing and our insights into reasoning distillation with the community.

  • 7 authors
·
Dec 23, 2025

Scaling Reasoning can Improve Factuality in Large Language Models

Recent studies on large language model (LLM) reasoning capabilities have demonstrated promising improvements in model performance by leveraging a lengthy thinking process and additional computational resources during inference, primarily in tasks involving mathematical reasoning (Muennighoff et al., 2025). However, it remains uncertain if longer reasoning chains inherently enhance factual accuracy, particularly beyond mathematical contexts. In this work, we thoroughly examine LLM reasoning within complex open-domain question-answering (QA) scenarios. We initially distill reasoning traces from advanced, large-scale reasoning models (QwQ-32B and DeepSeek-R1-671B), then fine-tune a variety of models ranging from smaller, instruction-tuned variants to larger architectures based on Qwen2.5. To enrich reasoning traces, we introduce factual information from knowledge graphs in the form of paths into our reasoning traces. Our experimental setup includes four baseline approaches and six different instruction-tuned models evaluated across a benchmark of six datasets, encompassing over 22.6K questions. Overall, we carry out 168 experimental runs and analyze approximately 1.7 million reasoning traces. Our findings indicate that, within a single run, smaller reasoning models achieve noticeable improvements in factual accuracy compared to their original instruction-tuned counterparts. Moreover, our analysis demonstrates that adding test-time compute and token budgets factual accuracy consistently improves by 2-8%, further confirming the effectiveness of test-time scaling for enhancing performance and consequently improving reasoning accuracy in open-domain QA tasks. We release all the experimental artifacts for further research.

  • 3 authors
·
May 16, 2025 2

Mobility Anomaly Generation using LLM-Driven Behavior with Kinematic Constraints

Although the study of human trajectory anomalies is critical for advancing spatial data mining, empirical research remains severely hindered by a pervasive lack of ground-truth datasets. Despite the availability of several real-world and simulated human trajectory collections, these datasets exclusively capture normal mobility patterns and lack annotated anomalies. This specific scarcity is fundamentally driven by the inherent statistical rarity of anomalous events, precluding the feasibility of conventional observational methods. Compounding this challenge, the systematic acquisition of large-scale mobility data is strictly bottlenecked by prohibitive costs and stringent privacy regulations. To overcome these fundamental limitations and establish a reliable human trajectory anomalies dataset with annotated ground truth, we introduce a novel, end-to-end generative framework designed to synthesize realistic trajectory anomalies at scale. Our architecture bridges the gap between purely synthetic mobility data and complex real-world physical constraints by operating directly on baseline simulated trajectories. We employ Large Language Model (LLM) agents to systematically inject semantically meaningful behavioral anomalies such as irregular out-of-distribution check-ins and skipped routine visits. To ensure rigorous spatial validity, the system leverages map-constrained routing reconstruction to recalculate the physical transitions between these LLM agent-modified staypoints. Moreover, to narrow the simulation-to-reality gap, we augment the resulting trajectories with a context-aware spatial noise model, parameterized by environmental and location-specific variables, to accurately emulate heterogeneous GPS sensor degradation.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 8

Mini-o3: Scaling Up Reasoning Patterns and Interaction Turns for Visual Search

Recent advances in large multimodal models have leveraged image-based tools with reinforcement learning to tackle visual problems. However, existing open-source approaches often exhibit monotonous reasoning patterns and allow only a limited number of interaction turns, making them inadequate for difficult tasks that require trial-and-error exploration. In this work, we address this limitation by scaling up tool-based interactions and introduce Mini-o3, a system that executes deep, multi-turn reasoning -- spanning tens of steps -- and achieves state-of-the-art performance on challenging visual search tasks. Our recipe for reproducing OpenAI o3-style behaviors comprises three key components. First, we construct the Visual Probe Dataset, a collection of thousands of challenging visual search problems designed for exploratory reasoning. Second, we develop an iterative data collection pipeline to obtain cold-start trajectories that exhibit diverse reasoning patterns, including depth-first search, trial-and-error, and goal maintenance. Third, we propose an over-turn masking strategy that prevents penalization of over-turn responses (those that hit the maximum number of turns) during reinforcement learning, thereby balancing training-time efficiency with test-time scalability. Despite training with an upper bound of only six interaction turns, our model generates trajectories that naturally scale to tens of turns at inference time, with accuracy improving as the number of turns increases. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Mini-o3 produces rich reasoning patterns and deep thinking paths, effectively solving challenging visual search problems.

  • 6 authors
·
Sep 9, 2025 2

ReasonFlux-PRM: Trajectory-Aware PRMs for Long Chain-of-Thought Reasoning in LLMs

Process Reward Models (PRMs) have recently emerged as a powerful framework for supervising intermediate reasoning steps in large language models (LLMs). Previous PRMs are primarily trained on model final output responses and struggle to evaluate intermediate thinking trajectories robustly, especially in the emerging setting of trajectory-response outputs generated by frontier reasoning models like Deepseek-R1. In this work, we introduce ReasonFlux-PRM, a novel trajectory-aware PRM explicitly designed to evaluate the trajectory-response type of reasoning traces. ReasonFlux-PRM incorporates both step-level and trajectory-level supervision, enabling fine-grained reward assignment aligned with structured chain-of-thought data. We adapt ReasonFlux-PRM to support reward supervision under both offline and online settings, including (i) selecting high-quality model distillation data for downstream supervised fine-tuning of smaller models, (ii) providing dense process-level rewards for policy optimization during reinforcement learning, and (iii) enabling reward-guided Best-of-N test-time scaling. Empirical results on challenging downstream benchmarks such as AIME, MATH500, and GPQA-Diamond demonstrate that ReasonFlux-PRM-7B selects higher quality data than strong PRMs (e.g., Qwen2.5-Math-PRM-72B) and human-curated baselines. Furthermore, our derived ReasonFlux-PRM-7B yields consistent performance improvements, achieving average gains of 12.1% in supervised fine-tuning, 4.5% in reinforcement learning, and 6.3% in test-time scaling. We also release our efficient ReasonFlux-PRM-1.5B for resource-constrained applications and edge deployment. Projects: https://github.com/Gen-Verse/ReasonFlux

  • 7 authors
·
Jun 23, 2025 2

TSRouter: Dynamic Modality-Model Selection for Time Series Reasoning

Time series reasoning is essential for real-world problem-solving. While both Large Language Models (LLMs) and Vision-Language Models (VLMs) can reason about time-series data, their capabilities are complementary: LLMs process time series as text sequences and thus preserve exact numerical understanding, but struggle with global patterns, whereas VLMs efficiently capture these patterns by visualizing time series but may lose fine-grained details. Moreover, models vary significantly in task-specific expertise and inference costs. Dynamically selecting the most suitable modality and model for each query is therefore crucial, yet challenging because it requires modeling the complex interactions among tasks, queries, modalities, and models, which carry rich contextual signals. To this end, we introduce TSRouter, a graph-based dynamic routing framework. TSRouter constructs a heterogeneous graph of task, query, modality, and model nodes to contextualize the interactions among query characteristics, modality attributes, and model capabilities. TSRouter formulates routing as a candidate scoring problem, where each modality-model pair is evaluated based on user-defined performance-cost preferences to select the optimal candidate. Comprehensive evaluations on 4 distinct time series reasoning tasks reveal that TSRouter substantially outperforms diverse baselines with 16\% to 46\% relative improvements. Furthermore, TSRouter demonstrates robust zero-shot plug-and-play generalization to unseen models and novel tasks and preserves high performance while reducing computational overhead through cost-aware optimization. Our code is available at https://github.com/tianyi-lab/TSRouter.

  • 6 authors
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Jul 8

Towards Lossless Dataset Distillation via Difficulty-Aligned Trajectory Matching

The ultimate goal of Dataset Distillation is to synthesize a small synthetic dataset such that a model trained on this synthetic set will perform equally well as a model trained on the full, real dataset. Until now, no method of Dataset Distillation has reached this completely lossless goal, in part due to the fact that previous methods only remain effective when the total number of synthetic samples is extremely small. Since only so much information can be contained in such a small number of samples, it seems that to achieve truly loss dataset distillation, we must develop a distillation method that remains effective as the size of the synthetic dataset grows. In this work, we present such an algorithm and elucidate why existing methods fail to generate larger, high-quality synthetic sets. Current state-of-the-art methods rely on trajectory-matching, or optimizing the synthetic data to induce similar long-term training dynamics as the real data. We empirically find that the training stage of the trajectories we choose to match (i.e., early or late) greatly affects the effectiveness of the distilled dataset. Specifically, early trajectories (where the teacher network learns easy patterns) work well for a low-cardinality synthetic set since there are fewer examples wherein to distribute the necessary information. Conversely, late trajectories (where the teacher network learns hard patterns) provide better signals for larger synthetic sets since there are now enough samples to represent the necessary complex patterns. Based on our findings, we propose to align the difficulty of the generated patterns with the size of the synthetic dataset. In doing so, we successfully scale trajectory matching-based methods to larger synthetic datasets, achieving lossless dataset distillation for the very first time. Code and distilled datasets are available at https://gzyaftermath.github.io/DATM.

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 9, 2023

Eliciting Chain-of-Thought Reasoning for Time Series Analysis using Reinforcement Learning

Complex numerical time series analysis often demands multi-step reasoning capabilities beyond current models' reach. Tasks like medical diagnosis and weather forecasting require sequential reasoning processes - including counterfactual analysis, logical deduction, knowledge application, and multi-modal contextual integration - that existing time series models cannot explicitly perform. While recent research has shown large language models (LLMs) can achieve sophisticated Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning through reinforcement learning (RL), these advances have primarily focused on mathematical and coding domains, with LLMs still demonstrating poor performance on time series tasks. We introduce Chain Of thought for Understanding Numerical Time Series (COUNTS), the first framework that trains LLMs to perform CoT reasoning across diverse time series tasks using RL with verifiable rewards. Our approach employs a Residual Vector-Quantized VAE to create high-fidelity discrete tokens that seamlessly integrate into a pre-trained LLM's vocabulary. COUNTS undergoes a two-stage training process: first, supervised fine-tuning on time series analysis tasks to master our novel representations, followed by Group Relative Policy Optimization training on verifiable problems using prompting strategies that encourage explicit reasoning steps before producing final answers. Our experiments demonstrate that this RL-driven approach with intermediate CoT reasoning significantly enhances LLM performance across various time series analysis tasks, opening new possibilities for complex temporal data reasoning.

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 13