Daily Papers

As LLM-based assistants become persistent and personalized, they must extract and retain useful information from past conversations as memory. However, the types of information worth remembering vary considerably across tasks. We formalize the heterogeneous memory extraction task and introduce BEHEMOTH, a benchmark that repurposes 18 existing datasets spanning personalization, problem-solving, and agentic tasks, using a downstream utility-driven metric for systematic evaluation. Our empirical analysis confirms that no single static extraction prompt dominates across all task categories, and that existing self-evolving prompt optimization frameworks, originally designed for homogeneous distributions, degrade when training tasks are heterogeneous. To address this, we propose CluE, a cluster-based self-evolving strategy that groups training examples into clusters by extraction scenarios, analyzes each cluster independently, and synthesizes cross-cluster insights to update the extraction prompt. Experiments on BEHEMOTH show that CluE generalizes effectively across heterogeneous tasks (+9.04\% relative gain), consistently outperforming prior self-evolving frameworks.

Predictable behavior from scaling advanced AI systems is an extremely desirable property. Although a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, the literature on how particular downstream capabilities scale is significantly muddier. In this work, we take a step back and ask: why has predicting specific downstream capabilities with scale remained elusive? While many factors are certainly responsible, we identify a new factor that makes modeling scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question-answering benchmarks challenging. Using five model families and twelve well-established multiple-choice benchmarks, we show that downstream performance is computed from negative log likelihoods via a sequence of transformations that progressively degrade the statistical relationship between performance and scale. We then reveal the mechanism causing this degradation: downstream metrics require comparing the correct choice against a small number of specific incorrect choices, meaning accurately predicting downstream capabilities requires predicting not just how probability mass concentrates on the correct choice with scale, but also how probability mass fluctuates on specific incorrect choices with scale. We empirically study how probability mass on the correct choice co-varies with probability mass on incorrect choices with increasing compute, suggesting that scaling laws for incorrect choices might be achievable. Our work also explains why pretraining scaling laws are commonly regarded as more predictable than downstream capabilities and contributes towards establishing scaling-predictable evaluations of frontier AI models.

In this paper, we present the MetricX-24 submissions to the WMT24 Metrics Shared Task and provide details on the improvements we made over the previous version of MetricX. Our primary submission is a hybrid reference-based/-free metric, which can score a translation irrespective of whether it is given the source segment, the reference, or both. The metric is trained on previous WMT data in a two-stage fashion, first on the DA ratings only, then on a mixture of MQM and DA ratings. The training set in both stages is augmented with synthetic examples that we created to make the metric more robust to several common failure modes, such as fluent but unrelated translation, or undertranslation. We demonstrate the benefits of the individual modifications via an ablation study, and show a significant performance increase over MetricX-23 on the WMT23 MQM ratings, as well as our new synthetic challenge set.

The effectiveness of recommendation systems is pivotal to user engagement and satisfaction in online platforms. As these recommendation systems increasingly influence user choices, their evaluation transcends mere technical performance and becomes central to business success. This paper addresses the multifaceted nature of recommendations system evaluation by introducing a comprehensive suite of metrics, each tailored to capture a distinct aspect of system performance. We discuss * Similarity Metrics: to quantify the precision of content-based filtering mechanisms and assess the accuracy of collaborative filtering techniques. * Candidate Generation Metrics: to evaluate how effectively the system identifies a broad yet relevant range of items. * Predictive Metrics: to assess the accuracy of forecasted user preferences. * Ranking Metrics: to evaluate the effectiveness of the order in which recommendations are presented. * Business Metrics: to align the performance of the recommendation system with economic objectives. Our approach emphasizes the contextual application of these metrics and their interdependencies. In this paper, we identify the strengths and limitations of current evaluation practices and highlight the nuanced trade-offs that emerge when optimizing recommendation systems across different metrics. The paper concludes by proposing a framework for selecting and interpreting these metrics to not only improve system performance but also to advance business goals. This work is to aid researchers and practitioners in critically assessing recommendation systems and fosters the development of more nuanced, effective, and economically viable personalization strategies. Our code is available at GitHub - https://github.com/aryan-jadon/Evaluation-Metrics-for-Recommendation-Systems.

The rapid advancements in computing dramatically increase the scale and cost of training Large Language Models (LLMs). Accurately predicting downstream task performance prior to model training is crucial for efficient resource allocation, yet remains challenging due to two primary constraints: (1) the "emergence phenomenon", wherein downstream performance metrics become meaningful only after extensive training, which limits the ability to use smaller models for prediction; (2) Uneven task difficulty distributions and the absence of consistent scaling laws, resulting in substantial metric variability. Existing performance prediction methods suffer from limited accuracy and reliability, thereby impeding the assessment of potential LLM capabilities. To address these challenges, we propose a Clustering-On-Difficulty (COD) downstream performance prediction framework. COD first constructs a predictable support subset by clustering tasks based on difficulty features, strategically excluding non-emergent and non-scalable clusters. The scores on the selected subset serve as effective intermediate predictors of downstream performance on the full evaluation set. With theoretical support, we derive a mapping function that transforms performance metrics from the predictable subset to the full evaluation set, thereby ensuring accurate extrapolation of LLM downstream performance. The proposed method has been applied to predict performance scaling for a 70B LLM, providing actionable insights for training resource allocation and assisting in monitoring the training process. Notably, COD achieves remarkable predictive accuracy on the 70B LLM by leveraging an ensemble of small models, demonstrating an absolute mean deviation of 1.36% across eight important LLM evaluation benchmarks.

Recent developments in large-scale machine learning suggest that by scaling up data, model size and training time properly, one might observe that improvements in pre-training would transfer favorably to most downstream tasks. In this work, we systematically study this phenomena and establish that, as we increase the upstream accuracy, the performance of downstream tasks saturates. In particular, we investigate more than 4800 experiments on Vision Transformers, MLP-Mixers and ResNets with number of parameters ranging from ten million to ten billion, trained on the largest scale of available image data (JFT, ImageNet21K) and evaluated on more than 20 downstream image recognition tasks. We propose a model for downstream performance that reflects the saturation phenomena and captures the nonlinear relationship in performance of upstream and downstream tasks. Delving deeper to understand the reasons that give rise to these phenomena, we show that the saturation behavior we observe is closely related to the way that representations evolve through the layers of the models. We showcase an even more extreme scenario where performance on upstream and downstream are at odds with each other. That is, to have a better downstream performance, we need to hurt upstream accuracy.

Photovoltaic (PV) energy is rapidly growing and key to mitigating the energy crisis. However, distributed PV generation, which amounts to half of the PV installed capacity, is typically unavailable to transmission system operators (TSOs), making it increasingly difficult to balance the load and supply and avoid grid congestions. To assess distributed PV generation, TSOs need precise knowledge regarding the metadata of distributed PV installations. Many remote sensing-based approaches have been proposed to map these installations in recent years. However, to use these methods in industrial processes, assessing their accuracy over the mapping area, i.e., the area covered by the model during deployment, is necessary. We define the downstream task accuracy (DTA) as the accuracy over the mapping area, automatically computed using publicly available data sources and the model's outputs and expressed in an interpretable way for operators. We benchmark existing models for distributed PV mapping and show how they perform in terms of DTA. We show that the accuracy computed on the test set overestimates by about 30 percentage points the accuracy on the mapping area. Our approach paves the way for safer integration of deep-learning-based pipelines for remote PV mapping. Code is available at https://github.com/gabrielkasmi/deeppvmapper.

Credit risk modeling relies extensively on Weight of Evidence (WoE) and Information Value (IV) for feature engineering, and Population Stability Index (PSI) for drift monitoring, yet their theoretical foundations remain disconnected. We establish a unified information-theoretic framework revealing these industry-standard metrics as instances of classical information divergences. Specifically, we prove that IV exactly equals PSI (Jeffreys divergence) computed between good and bad credit outcomes over identical bins. Through the delta method applied to WoE transformations, we derive standard errors for IV and PSI, enabling formal hypothesis testing and probabilistic fairness constraints for the first time. We formalize credit modeling's inherent performance-fairness trade-off as maximizing IV for predictive power while minimizing IV for protected attributes. Using automated binning with depth-1 XGBoost stumps, we compare three encoding strategies: logistic regression with one-hot encoding, WoE transformation, and constrained XGBoost. All methods achieve comparable predictive performance (AUC 0.82-0.84), demonstrating that principled, information-theoretic binning outweighs encoding choice. Mixed-integer programming traces Pareto-efficient solutions along the performance-fairness frontier with uncertainty quantification. This framework bridges theory and practice, providing the first rigorous statistical foundation for widely-used credit risk metrics while offering principled tools for balancing accuracy and fairness in regulated environments.

A critical challenge in recommender systems is to establish reliable relationships between offline and online metrics that predict real-world performance. Motivated by recent advances in Pareto front approximation, we introduce a pragmatic strategy for identifying offline metrics that align with online impact. A key advantage of this approach is its ability to simultaneously serve multiple test groups, each with distinct offline performance metrics, in an online experiment controlled by a single model. The method is model-agnostic for systems with a neural network backbone, enabling broad applicability across architectures and domains. We validate the strategy through a large-scale online experiment in the field of session-based recommender systems on the OTTO e-commerce platform. The online experiment identifies significant alignments between offline metrics and real-word click-through rate, post-click conversion rate and units sold. Our strategy provides industry practitioners with a valuable tool for understanding offline-to-online metric relationships and making informed, data-driven decisions.

A robust evaluation metric has a profound impact on the development of text generation systems. A desirable metric compares system output against references based on their semantics rather than surface forms. In this paper we investigate strategies to encode system and reference texts to devise a metric that shows a high correlation with human judgment of text quality. We validate our new metric, namely MoverScore, on a number of text generation tasks including summarization, machine translation, image captioning, and data-to-text generation, where the outputs are produced by a variety of neural and non-neural systems. Our findings suggest that metrics combining contextualized representations with a distance measure perform the best. Such metrics also demonstrate strong generalization capability across tasks. For ease-of-use we make our metrics available as web service.

While Minimum Bayes Risk (MBR) decoding using metrics such as COMET or MetricX has outperformed traditional decoding methods such as greedy or beam search, it introduces a challenge we refer to as metric bias. As MBR decoding aims to produce translations that score highly according to a specific utility metric, this very process makes it impossible to use the same metric for both decoding and evaluation, as improvements might simply be due to reward hacking rather than reflecting real quality improvements. In this work we find that compared to human ratings, neural metrics not only overestimate the quality of MBR decoding when the same metric is used as the utility metric, but they also overestimate the quality of MBR/QE decoding with other neural utility metrics as well. We also show that the metric bias issue can be mitigated by using an ensemble of utility metrics during MBR decoding: human evaluations show that MBR decoding using an ensemble of utility metrics outperforms a single utility metric.

We introduce a new benchmark for reward models that quantifies their ability to produce strong language models through RLHF (Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback). The gold-standard approach is to run a full RLHF training pipeline and directly probe downstream LLM performance. However, this process is prohibitively expensive. To address this, we build a predictive model of downstream LLM performance by evaluating the reward model on proxy tasks. These proxy tasks consist of a large-scale human preference and a verifiable correctness preference dataset, in which we measure 12 metrics across 12 domains. To investigate which reward model metrics are most correlated to gold-standard RLHF outcomes, we launch an end-to-end RLHF experiment on a large-scale crowdsourced human preference platform to view real reward model downstream performance as ground truth. Ultimately, we compile our data and findings into Preference Proxy Evaluations (PPE), the first reward model benchmark explicitly linked to post-RLHF real-world human preference performance, which we open-source for public use and further development. Our code and evaluations can be found at https://github.com/lmarena/PPE .

Large Language Models (LLMs) have become an integral part of software development, especially with the advent of agentic capabilities. Yet, many frontier LLMs are affiliated with specific providers. This raises the question of whether generated code favors the provider's own ecosystem over comparable alternatives, potentially constraining developers' choices and increasing dependence on a single provider. We define this behavior as Vertical Integration Bias (VIB) and introduce VIBench, a benchmark for measuring VIB in direct and agentic code generation across 20 provider-selectable software-integration scenarios. Evaluating 10 frontier provider-affiliated models against 3 non-affiliated controls, we find positive VIB in direct generation, with six of ten affiliated models showing statistically significant effects up to +18.8 percentage points (pp). Agentic workflows further amplify VIB, reaching +39.2 pp. Moreover, early affiliated-ecosystem choices in agentic workflows can persist into conceptually decoupled downstream files, with persistence as high as 90.3%. These findings underscore the need to measure and account for VIB in code generation, especially as agentic capabilities become more prevalent.

As high-quality public text approaches exhaustion, a phenomenon known as the Data Wall, pre-training is shifting from more tokens to better tokens. However, existing methods either rely on heuristic static filters that ignore training dynamics, or use dynamic yet optimizer-agnostic criteria based on raw gradients. We propose OPUS (Optimizer-induced Projected Utility Selection), a dynamic data selection framework that defines utility in the optimizer-induced update space. OPUS scores candidates by projecting their effective updates, shaped by modern optimizers, onto a target direction derived from a stable, in-distribution proxy. To ensure scalability, we employ Ghost technique with CountSketch for computational efficiency, and Boltzmann sampling for data diversity, incurring only 4.7\% additional compute overhead. OPUS achieves remarkable results across diverse corpora, quality tiers, optimizers, and model scales. In pre-training of GPT-2 Large/XL on FineWeb and FineWeb-Edu with 30B tokens, OPUS outperforms industrial-level baselines and even full 200B-token training. Moreover, when combined with industrial-level static filters, OPUS further improves pre-training efficiency, even with lower-quality data. Furthermore, in continued pre-training of Qwen3-8B-Base on SciencePedia, OPUS achieves superior performance using only 0.5B tokens compared to full training with 3B tokens, demonstrating significant data efficiency gains in specialized domains.

Neural metrics for machine translation (MT) evaluation have become increasingly prominent due to their superior correlation with human judgments compared to traditional lexical metrics. Researchers have therefore utilized neural metrics through quality-informed decoding strategies, achieving better results than likelihood-based methods. With the rise of Large Language Models (LLMs), preference-based alignment techniques have gained attention for their potential to enhance translation quality by optimizing model weights directly on preferences induced by quality estimators. This study focuses on Contrastive Preference Optimization (CPO) and conducts extensive experiments to evaluate the impact of preference-based alignment on translation quality. Our findings indicate that while CPO consistently outperforms Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) on high-quality data with regard to the alignment metric, it may lead to instability across downstream evaluation metrics, particularly between neural and lexical ones. Additionally, we demonstrate that relying solely on the base model for generating candidate translations achieves performance comparable to using multiple external systems, while ensuring better consistency across downstream metrics.

When training large language models (LLMs), it is common practice to track downstream task performance throughout the training process and select the checkpoint with the highest validation score. However, downstream metrics often exhibit substantial fluctuations, making it difficult to identify the checkpoint that truly represents the best-performing model. In this study, we empirically analyze the stability of downstream task performance in an LLM trained on diverse web-scale corpora. We find that task scores frequently fluctuate throughout training, both at the aggregate and example levels. To address this instability, we investigate two post-hoc checkpoint integration methods: checkpoint averaging and ensemble, motivated by the hypothesis that aggregating neighboring checkpoints can reduce performance volatility. We demonstrate both empirically and theoretically that these methods improve downstream performance stability without requiring any changes to the training procedure.

Macroeconomic productivity metrics, such as Total Factor Productivity, register technological breakthroughs with multi-year reporting lags due to administrative survey intervals and national accounting conventions. This paper introduces Hyperspherical Semantic Trajectory Analysis (HSTA), an unsupervised quantitative methodology that tracks technology diffusion directly from unstructured scientific and commercial text streams. We analyze 30,000 filtered document records spanning academic preprints from arXiv and patent application records from the USPTO. By projecting high-dimensional Transformer sentence embeddings onto unit hyperspheres using Spherical K-Means clustering across eight primary sub-topics and UMAP manifold reductions, HSTA formalizes two quantitative metrics: (1) Semantic Centroid Vector Drift, which tracks vocabulary shifts between temporal sub-corpora to identify structural paradigm transformations; and (2) Commercialization Offset, which evaluates cross-corpus peak density alignments between scientific discovery and intellectual property filings. Linking quarterly topic volume velocity with physical hardware metrics from the Epoch AI database, Vector Autoregressive F-tests demonstrate that quarterly paper volume velocity alone does not Granger-cause frontier compute allocation surges at conventional statistical significance levels, highlighting the necessity of conditioning textual signals on physical capital constraints. Empirical results reveal that sub-topics covering Large Language Models (with a drift metric of 0.332) and Artificial Intelligence Systems (with a drift metric of 0.234) undergo the highest rate of semantic evolution, offering an objective, real-time mechanism to complement traditional economic statistics.

Research on self-evolving language agents has accelerated, drawing increasing attention to their ability to create, adapt, and maintain tools from task requirements. However, existing benchmarks predominantly rely on predefined specifications, which limits scalability and hinders truly autonomous evolution. While recent studies attempt to dynamically generate tools, they primarily emphasize downstream performance, resulting in a "black-box" evaluation that makes it difficult to attribute failures to specific causes. To address this, we propose Tool-Genesis, a diagnostic benchmark designed to quantify agent capabilities across multiple dimensions, including interface compliance, functional correctness, and downstream utility. Tool-Genesis evaluates whether agents can construct task-relevant tools solely from abstract requirements (without preset specifications) and use them to solve realistic problems. Crucially, we find that even state-of-the-art models struggle to produce precise tool interfaces or executable logic in a one-shot setting. These minor initial flaws are amplified through the pipeline, leading to a sharp degradation in downstream metrics. We hope Tool-Genesis will guide future research toward training and steering models to synthesize persistent, general-purpose tools that better address real-world challenges.

Machine Translation (MT) evaluation metrics assess translation quality automatically. Recently, researchers have employed MT metrics for various new use cases, such as data filtering and translation re-ranking. However, most MT metrics return assessments as scalar scores that are difficult to interpret, posing a challenge to making informed design choices. Moreover, MT metrics' capabilities have historically been evaluated using correlation with human judgment, which, despite its efficacy, falls short of providing intuitive insights into metric performance, especially in terms of new metric use cases. To address these issues, we introduce an interpretable evaluation framework for MT metrics. Within this framework, we evaluate metrics in two scenarios that serve as proxies for the data filtering and translation re-ranking use cases. Furthermore, by measuring the performance of MT metrics using Precision, Recall, and F-score, we offer clearer insights into their capabilities than correlation with human judgments. Finally, we raise concerns regarding the reliability of manually curated data following the Direct Assessments+Scalar Quality Metrics (DA+SQM) guidelines, reporting a notably low agreement with Multidimensional Quality Metrics (MQM) annotations.

Reward Models (RMs) are crucial for aligning language models with human preferences. Currently, the evaluation of RMs depends on measuring accuracy against a validation set of manually annotated preference data. Although this method is straightforward and widely adopted, the relationship between RM accuracy and downstream policy performance remains under-explored. In this work, we conduct experiments in a synthetic setting to investigate how differences in RM measured by accuracy translate into gaps in optimized policy performance. Our findings reveal that while there is a weak positive correlation between accuracy and downstream performance, policies optimized towards RMs with similar accuracy can exhibit quite different performance. Moreover, we discover that the way of measuring accuracy significantly impacts its ability to predict the final policy performance. Through the lens of the Regressional Goodhart effect, we recognize that accuracy, when used for measuring RM quality, can fail to fully capture the potential RM overoptimization. This underscores the inadequacy of relying solely on accuracy to reflect their impact on policy optimization.

Scaling laws have transformed our understanding of large language models by linking upstream metrics like cross-entropy loss to design factors such as model size, training data, and compute. However, these conventional laws fail to capture downstream task performance, where context plays a critical role. In this work, we propose a straightforward, interpretable framework that jointly models downstream performance as a function of the training compute and the provided context. We empirically validate our framework by fitting it on the observed downstream performance of extended-context variants of Llama-2-7B and Llama-2-13B across 65,500 unique instances spanning three tasks: arithmetic reasoning, common sense reasoning, and machine translation. Our results demonstrate that our framework accurately models in-distribution downstream performance, generalizes across three orders of magnitude in training compute, and reliably extrapolates performance as the amount of context increases. These findings offer valuable insights into the interplay between training compute and context utilization, providing guidance for designing more efficient long-context LLMs for diverse downstream tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/wang-research-lab/context-scaling.

Scaling laws provide important insights that can guide the design of large language models (LLMs). Existing work has primarily focused on studying scaling laws for pretraining (upstream) loss. However, in transfer learning settings, in which LLMs are pretrained on an unsupervised dataset and then finetuned on a downstream task, we often also care about the downstream performance. In this work, we study the scaling behavior in a transfer learning setting, where LLMs are finetuned for machine translation tasks. Specifically, we investigate how the choice of the pretraining data and its size affect downstream performance (translation quality) as judged by two metrics: downstream cross-entropy and BLEU score. Our experiments indicate that the size of the finetuning dataset and the distribution alignment between the pretraining and downstream data significantly influence the scaling behavior. With sufficient alignment, both downstream cross-entropy and BLEU score improve monotonically with more pretraining data. In such cases, we show that it is possible to predict the downstream BLEU score with good accuracy using a log-law. However, there are also cases where moderate misalignment causes the BLEU score to fluctuate or get worse with more pretraining, whereas downstream cross-entropy monotonically improves. By analyzing these observations, we provide new practical insights for choosing appropriate pretraining data.

We present TransactionGPT (TGPT), a foundation model for consumer transaction data within one of world's largest payment networks. TGPT is designed to understand and generate transaction trajectories while simultaneously supporting a variety of downstream prediction and classification tasks. We introduce a novel 3D-Transformer architecture specifically tailored for capturing the complex dynamics in payment transaction data. This architecture incorporates design innovations that enhance modality fusion and computational efficiency, while seamlessly enabling joint optimization with downstream objectives. Trained on billion-scale real-world transactions, TGPT significantly improves downstream classification performance against a competitive production model and exhibits advantages over baselines in generating future transactions. We conduct extensive empirical evaluations utilizing a diverse collection of company transaction datasets spanning multiple downstream tasks, thereby enabling a thorough assessment of TGPT's effectiveness and efficiency in comparison to established methodologies. Furthermore, we examine the incorporation of LLM-derived embeddings within TGPT and benchmark its performance against fine-tuned LLMs, demonstrating that TGPT achieves superior predictive accuracy as well as faster training and inference. We anticipate that the architectural innovations and practical guidelines from this work will advance foundation models for transaction-like data and catalyze future research in this emerging field.

Financial metrics like the Sharpe ratio are pivotal in evaluating investment performance by balancing risk and return. However, traditional metrics often struggle with robustness and generalization, particularly in dynamic and volatile market conditions. This paper introduces AlphaSharpe, a novel framework leveraging large language models (LLMs) to iteratively evolve and optimize financial metrics to discover enhanced risk-return metrics that outperform traditional approaches in robustness and correlation with future performance metrics by employing iterative crossover, mutation, and evaluation. Key contributions of this work include: (1) a novel use of LLMs to generate and refine financial metrics with implicit domain-specific knowledge, (2) a scoring mechanism to ensure that evolved metrics generalize effectively to unseen data, and (3) an empirical demonstration of 3x predictive power for future risk-returns, and 2x portfolio performance. Experimental results in a real-world dataset highlight the superiority of discovered metrics, making them highly relevant to portfolio managers and financial decision-makers. This framework not only addresses the limitations of existing metrics but also showcases the potential of LLMs in advancing financial analytics, paving the way for informed and robust investment strategies.

Progress in language model development is often driven by comparative decisions: which architecture to adopt, which pretraining corpus to use, or which training recipe to apply. Making these decisions well requires reliable performance forecasts, yet the two commonly used signals are fundamentally limited. Cross-entropy loss is poorly aligned with downstream capabilities, and direct downstream evaluation is expensive, sparse, and often uninformative at early training stages. Instead, we propose to construct proxy metrics by aggregating token-level statistics, such as entropy, top-k accuracy, and expert token rank, from a candidate model's next token distribution over expert-written solutions. Across three settings, our proxies consistently outperform loss- and compute-based baselines: 1) For cross-family model selection, they rank a heterogeneous population of reasoning models with mean Spearman Rho = 0.81 (vs. Rho = 0.36 for cross-entropy loss); 2) For pretraining data selection, they reliably rank 25 candidate corpora for a target model at roughly 10{,}000times less compute than direct evaluation, pushing the Pareto frontier beyond existing methods; and 3) for training-time forecasting, they extrapolate downstream accuracy across an 18times compute horizon with roughly half the error of existing alternatives. Together, these results suggest that expert trajectories are a broadly useful source of signal for assessing model capabilities, enabling reliable performance forecasting throughout the model development life cycle.

Open-source AI is scaling rapidly, and model hubs now host millions of artifacts. Each foundation model can spawn large numbers of fine-tunes, adapters, quantizations, merges, and forks. We take the position that compute efficiency alone is insufficient for sustainability in open-source AI: lower per-run costs can accelerate experimentation and deployment, increasing aggregate environmental footprint unless impacts are measurable and comparable across derivative lineages. However, the energy use, water consumption, and emissions of these derivative lineages are rarely measured or disclosed in a consistent, comparable manner, leaving ecosystem-level impact largely invisible. We argue that sustainable open-source AI requires coordination infrastructure that tracks impacts across model lineages, not only base models. We propose Data and Impact Accounting (DIA), a lightweight, non-restrictive transparency layer that (i) standardizes carbon and water reporting metadata, (ii) integrates low-friction measurement into common training and inference pipelines, and (iii) aggregates reports through public dashboards to summarize cumulative impacts across releases and derivatives. DIA makes derivative costs visible and supports ecosystem-level accountability while preserving openness. https://vectorinstitute.github.io/ai-impact-accounting/

We survey the large language model (LLM) serving area to understand the intricate dynamics between cost-efficiency and accuracy, which is magnified by the growing need for longer contextual understanding when deploying models at a massive scale. Our findings reveal that works in this space optimize along three distinct but conflicting goals: improving serving context length (C), improving serving accuracy (A), and improving serving performance (P). Drawing inspiration from the CAP theorem in databases, we propose a CAP principle for LLM serving, which suggests that any optimization can improve at most two of these three goals simultaneously. Our survey categorizes existing works within this framework. We find the definition and continuity of user-perceived measurement metrics are crucial in determining whether a goal has been met, akin to prior CAP databases in the wild. We recognize the CAP principle for LLM serving as a guiding principle, rather than a formal theorem, to inform designers of the inherent and dynamic trade-offs in serving models. As serving accuracy and performance have been extensively studied, this survey focuses on works that extend serving context length and address the resulting challenges.

Traditional retrieval pipelines optimize utility through stages of candidate retrieval and reranking, where ranking operates over a predefined candidate set. Large Language Models (LLMs) broaden this into a generative process: given a candidate pool, an LLM can generate a subset and order it within a single autoregressive pass. However, this flexibility introduces a new optimization challenge: the model must search a combinatorial output space while receiving utility feedback only after the full ranked list is generated. Because this feedback is defined over the completed sequence, it cannot distinguish whether a poor result arises from failing to generate a relevant subset or from failing to rank that subset correctly. This credit assignment gap makes end-to-end optimization unstable and sample-inefficient. Existing systems often address this by separating candidate generation from ranking. However, such decoupling remains misaligned with downstream utility because ranking is limited by the candidate set it receives. To bridge this gap, we propose a unified framework that performs both within a single autoregressive rollout and optimizes them end-to-end via factorized group-relative policy optimization (F-GRPO). Our framework factorizes the policy into candidate generation and ranking while sharing a single LLM backbone, and jointly trains them with an order-invariant coverage reward and a position-aware utility reward. To address the resulting phase-specific credit assignment problem, we use separate group-relative advantages for generation and ranking within a two-phase sequence-level objective. Across sequential recommendation and multi-hop question answering benchmarks, F-GRPO improves top-ranked performance over GRPO and decoupled baselines, outperforms supervised alternatives, and remains competitive with strong zero-shot rerankers, with no architectural changes at inference time.

Evaluation metrics are central to binary target segmentation because they determine how progress is measured, compared, and interpreted. In this paper, target denotes the task-defined positive region to be segmented rather than a generic foreground object. It may be salient, camouflaged, transparent, glass-like, mirror-like, shadow-like, lesion-like, or defined by other application-specific semantics. We treat existing metrics as compositions of modular design choices rather than isolated formulas. The proposed framework decomposes each metric into five stages covering prediction representation, target extraction, target matching, score computation, and metric reporting. We use this framework to analyze representative metrics and show how newer metrics address specific limits in earlier protocols. The stage choices keep each metric's assumptions visible. We then discuss the design space opened by the framework and its implications for task-aware evaluation protocols. Reference code is available at https://github.com/lartpang/PySODMetrics.

LLM inference is still evaluated mainly as a model or software problem: accuracy, latency, throughput, and hardware utilization. This is incomplete. At deployment scale, the relevant output is a quality-conditioned token produced under joint constraints from effective compute, delivered data-center power, cooling capacity, PUE, and utilization. We argue that the ML community should treat inference as energy-to-token production. We formalize this view with a dimensionally consistent Token Production Function in which token rate is bounded by both compute-per-token and energy-per-token ceilings. Listed API prices vary by over an order of magnitude across providers, but we use price dispersion only as directional motivation, not as causal evidence of marginal cost. The core physical question is instead: under fixed quality and service targets, when does the binding constraint move from theoretical peak compute toward delivered power, cooling, and operational efficiency? Under this framing, system optimizations -- latent KV-cache compression, sparse or heavily compressed attention, quantization, routing, and difficulty-adaptive reasoning -- are not merely local engineering tricks. They are energy-to-token levers because they reduce FLOPs/token, joules/token, memory traffic, or utilization losses under fixed (q^{*},s^{*}). We therefore call for inference papers and benchmarks to report Joules/token, active binding constraint, PUE-adjusted delivered power, and utilization-adjusted token output alongside accuracy and latency.

Software modernisation through the migration from monolithic architectures to microservices has become increasingly critical, yet identifying effective service boundaries remains a complex and unresolved challenge. Although numerous automated microservice decomposition frameworks have been proposed, their evaluation is often fragmented due to inconsistent benchmark systems, incompatible metrics, and limited reproducibility, thus hindering objective comparison. This work presents a unified comparative evaluation of state-of-the-art microservice decomposition approaches spanning static, dynamic, and hybrid techniques. Using a consistent metric computation pipeline, we assess the decomposition quality across widely used benchmark systems (JPetStore, AcmeAir, DayTrader, and Plants) using Structural Modularity (SM), Interface Number(IFN), Inter-partition Communication (ICP), Non-Extreme Distribution (NED), and related indicators. Our analysis combines results reported in prior studies with experimentally reproduced outputs from available replication packages. Findings indicate that the hierarchical clustering-based methods, particularly HDBScan, produce the most consistently balanced decompositions across benchmarks, achieving strong modularity while minimizing communication and interface overhead.

LLM agents are rapidly evolving from coding assistants into autonomous software engineering systems. However, existing evaluation methodologies remain largely centered on static, isolated, and short-horizon benchmarks that fail to capture the dynamic complexity of real-world production workflows. As a result, benchmark performance may poorly reflect practical capability under realistic runtime environments involving long execution chains, tool interactions, dependency management, and iterative feedback loops. We thus present RAMP, a production-grounded infrastructure for assessing long-horizon software engineering agents. Built upon the YatCC integrated platform, RAMP provides a unified runtime assessment architecture through standardized orchestration and execution interfaces. RAMP introduces realistic compiler-construction workloads with serial dependencies and complex toolchain interactions, together with a staged recovery mechanism for analyzing execution behavior under partial workflow failure. The framework further incorporates utility-oriented multi-dimensional metrics that jointly evaluate outcome quality and process efficiency. We conduct runtime assessments across 15 mainstream models and observe substantial capability degradation that remains largely invisible to conventional isolated benchmarks. Task completion rates progressively collapse across serial workflows, dropping from 100% in the initial stage to only 20% in the final stage, while none of the evaluated models successfully completes the entire pipeline. Runtime analysis reveals systematic failure propagation and significant resource inefficiencies, with computational costs differing by up to three orders of magnitude among comparable models. These findings suggest RAMP advances agentic model evaluation toward continuous, runtime-observable, and production-grounded assessment.

We present LLaTTE (LLM-Style Latent Transformers for Temporal Events), a scalable transformer architecture for production ads recommendation. Through systematic experiments, we demonstrate that sequence modeling in recommendation systems follows predictable power-law scaling similar to LLMs. Crucially, we find that semantic features bend the scaling curve: they are a prerequisite for scaling, enabling the model to effectively utilize the capacity of deeper and longer architectures. To realize the benefits of continued scaling under strict latency constraints, we introduce a two-stage architecture that offloads the heavy computation of large, long-context models to an asynchronous upstream user model. We demonstrate that upstream improvements transfer predictably to downstream ranking tasks. Deployed as the largest user model at Meta, this multi-stage framework drives a 4.3\% conversion uplift on Facebook Feed and Reels with minimal serving overhead, establishing a practical blueprint for harnessing scaling laws in industrial recommender systems.

Uncovering early-stage metrics that reflect final model performance is one core principle for large-scale pretraining. The existing scaling law demonstrates the power-law correlation between pretraining loss and training flops, which serves as an important indicator of the current training state for large language models. However, this principle only focuses on the model's compression properties on the training data, resulting in an inconsistency with the ability improvements on the downstream tasks. Some follow-up works attempted to extend the scaling-law to more complex metrics (such as hyperparameters), but still lacked a comprehensive analysis of the dynamic differences among various capabilities during pretraining. To address the aforementioned limitations, this paper undertakes a comprehensive comparison of model capabilities at various pretraining intermediate checkpoints. Through this analysis, we confirm that specific downstream metrics exhibit similar training dynamics across models of different sizes, up to 67 billion parameters. In addition to our core findings, we've reproduced Amber and OpenLLaMA, releasing their intermediate checkpoints. This initiative offers valuable resources to the research community and facilitates the verification and exploration of LLM pretraining by open-source researchers. Besides, we provide empirical summaries, including performance comparisons of different models and capabilities, and tuition of key metrics for different training phases. Based on these findings, we provide a more user-friendly strategy for evaluating the optimization state, offering guidance for establishing a stable pretraining process.

This report introduces Aquarius, a family of industry-level video generation models for marketing scenarios designed for thousands-xPU clusters and models with hundreds of billions of parameters. Leveraging efficient engineering architecture and algorithmic innovation, Aquarius demonstrates exceptional performance in high-fidelity, multi-aspect-ratio, and long-duration video synthesis. By disclosing the framework's design details, we aim to demystify industrial-scale video generation systems and catalyze advancements in the generative video community. The Aquarius framework consists of five components: Distributed Graph and Video Data Processing Pipeline: Manages tens of thousands of CPUs and thousands of xPUs via automated task distribution, enabling efficient video data processing. Additionally, we are about to open-source the entire data processing framework named "Aquarius-Datapipe". Model Architectures for Different Scales: Include a Single-DiT architecture for 2B models and a Multimodal-DiT architecture for 13.4B models, supporting multi-aspect ratios, multi-resolution, and multi-duration video generation. High-Performance infrastructure designed for video generation model training: Incorporating hybrid parallelism and fine-grained memory optimization strategies, this infrastructure achieves 36% MFU at large scale. Multi-xPU Parallel Inference Acceleration: Utilizes diffusion cache and attention optimization to achieve a 2.35x inference speedup. Multiple marketing-scenarios applications: Including image-to-video, text-to-video (avatar), video inpainting and video personalization, among others. More downstream applications and multi-dimensional evaluation metrics will be added in the upcoming version updates.

Massive unstructured multimodal streams suffer from high "data entropy," impeding both efficient human knowledge acquisition and high-quality AI post-training. Existing passive annotation paradigms, heavily reliant on heuristic rules or general VLMs, are costly, monotonous, and fail to unlock the deep procedural logic embedded in raw data. We elevate data processing to a learnable capability, proposing a paradigm shift towards Agentic Data Tailoring, which actively refining and structuring data to align with diverse user and downstream intents. To overcome the data scarcity bottleneck in training such high-order capabilities, we design a two-stage pipeline grounding generative semantic synthesis in deterministic Factual Anchors, yielding a large-scale dataset spanning five core physical and digital domains. Building upon this, DataClaw_0-9B model synergizes Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) with Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), achieving robust alignment with complex refinement and tailoring intents. To systematically quantify this capability, we construct DataClaw_0-val, the first benchmark dedicated to data refinement. Crucially, we adopt downstream post-training as the ultimate validation touchstone. Evaluations on video generation, real-world VQA, and GUI navigation confirm that DataClaw_0 delivers high-information-density tailored data, facilitating efficient model adaptation to new tasks under limited training data regimes. Project page: https://czjdsg.github.io/MakeAnyData

In this work, we conduct a detailed analysis on the performance of legal-oriented pre-trained language models (PLMs). We examine the interplay between their original objective, acquired knowledge, and legal language understanding capacities which we define as the upstream, probing, and downstream performance, respectively. We consider not only the models' size but also the pre-training corpora used as important dimensions in our study. To this end, we release a multinational English legal corpus (LeXFiles) and a legal knowledge probing benchmark (LegalLAMA) to facilitate training and detailed analysis of legal-oriented PLMs. We release two new legal PLMs trained on LeXFiles and evaluate them alongside others on LegalLAMA and LexGLUE. We find that probing performance strongly correlates with upstream performance in related legal topics. On the other hand, downstream performance is mainly driven by the model's size and prior legal knowledge which can be estimated by upstream and probing performance. Based on these findings, we can conclude that both dimensions are important for those seeking the development of domain-specific PLMs.

Text-to-SQL automatically translates natural language queries to SQL, allowing non-technical users to retrieve data from databases without specialized SQL knowledge. Despite the success of advanced LLM-based Text-to-SQL approaches on leaderboards, their unsustainable computational costs--often overlooked--stand as the "elephant in the room" in current leaderboard-driven research, limiting their economic practicability for real-world deployment and widespread adoption. To tackle this, we exploratively propose EllieSQL, a complexity-aware routing framework that assigns queries to suitable SQL generation pipelines based on estimated complexity. We investigate multiple routers to direct simple queries to efficient approaches while reserving computationally intensive methods for complex cases. Drawing from economics, we introduce the Token Elasticity of Performance (TEP) metric, capturing cost-efficiency by quantifying the responsiveness of performance gains relative to token investment in SQL generation. Experiments show that compared to always using the most advanced methods in our study, EllieSQL with the Qwen2.5-0.5B-DPO router reduces token use by over 40% without compromising performance on Bird development set, achieving more than a 2x boost in TEP over non-routing approaches. This not only advances the pursuit of cost-efficient Text-to-SQL but also invites the community to weigh resource efficiency alongside performance, contributing to progress in sustainable Text-to-SQL.

Recent advances have made long-form report-generating systems widely available. This has prompted evaluation frameworks that use LLM-as-judge protocols and claim verification, along with meta-evaluation frameworks that seek to validate these methods. Many of the meta-evaluations estimate an evaluation quality's by comparing its assessments against human pairwise preferences. Prior work, however, suggests that human pairwise preference may be overly simplistic and can fail to capture nuances of expert expectations. We conduct a case study in meta-evaluation for long-form QA benchmarks using ScholarQA-CS2, a benchmark designed for assessing retrieval-augmented deep-research QA in the scientific domain. We comprehensively validate the benchmark through human pairwise preference judgments, then critically examine the strengths, weaknesses, and confounders of this approach. We show that pairwise preference rankings are best suited for system-level evaluation, while explicit metric-wise annotations and expert annotators are critical for reliable metric-level assessment, with subjectivity remaining a key challenge. Based on our findings, we offer practical guidelines for designing future meta-evaluations that better align evaluation methods, annotator expertise, and reporting practices. By surfacing these methodological challenges, we aim to advance evaluation standards for deep-research systems.

Conventional agent systems often struggle in open-ended environments where task distributions continuously drift and external supervision is scarce. Their reliance on static toolsets or offline training lags behind these dynamics, leaving the system's capability boundaries rigid and unknown. To address this, we propose the In-Situ Self-Evolving paradigm. This approach treats sequential task interactions as a continuous stream of experience, enabling the system to distill short-term execution feedback into long-term, reusable capabilities without access to ground-truth labels. Within this framework, we identify tool evolution as the critical pathway for capability expansion, which provides verifiable, binary feedback signals. Within this framework, we develop Yunjue Agent, a system that iteratively synthesizes, optimizes, and reuses tools to navigate emerging challenges. To optimize evolutionary efficiency, we further introduce a Parallel Batch Evolution strategy. Empirical evaluations across five diverse benchmarks under a zero-start setting demonstrate significant performance gains over proprietary baselines. Additionally, complementary warm-start evaluations confirm that the accumulated general knowledge can be seamlessly transferred to novel domains. Finally, we propose a novel metric to monitor evolution convergence, serving as a function analogous to training loss in conventional optimization. We open-source our codebase, system traces, and evolved tools to facilitate future research in resilient, self-evolving intelligence.

Large language model agents are increasingly evaluated as autonomous tool users, yet most benchmarks focus on bounded tasks with immediate success criteria. Real-world deployments often require Long-Term Coherence, the capacity to preserve purposeful behavior across extended horizons while adapting decisions to accumulated evidence. Evaluating this capacity requires a persistent environment in which actions constrain future choices, feedback arrives at heterogeneous delays, and incoherent behavior produces measurable cumulative effects. Seller-side e-commerce provides a suitable setting for this evaluation through recurrent and interdependent decisions over Product Sourcing, Listing and Pricing Control, Cash-Flow Management, and Mixed-Latency Feedback Adaptation. We introduce MerchantBench, a 365-day order-level simulation grounded in 98,843 real e-commerce product records and equipped with 26 tools for agent interaction. MerchantBench couples promptly observable Upstream Supplier Events with delayed Downstream Order Outcomes, requiring agents to follow individual order lifecycles and revisit earlier decisions. We evaluate eight LLMs under two agent frameworks in 48 runs, each spanning 365 simulated days. Our results reveal a substantial gap between even the latest LLMs and human participants, with the best LLM configuration attaining only 27.3\% of the mean final net assets achieved by human participants.

Chemical Language Models (CLMs) pre-trained on large scale molecular data are widely used for molecular property prediction. However, the common belief that increasing training resources such as model size, dataset size, and training compute improves both pretraining loss and downstream task performance has not been systematically validated in the chemical domain. In this work, we evaluate this assumption by pretraining CLMs while scaling training resources and measuring transfer performance across diverse molecular property prediction (MPP) tasks. We find that while pretraining loss consistently decreases with increased training resources, downstream task performance shows limited improvement. Moreover, alternative metrics based on the Hessian or loss landscape also fail to estimate downstream performance in CLMs. We further identify conditions under which downstream performance saturates or degrades despite continued improvements in pretraining metrics, and analyze the underlying task dependent failure modes through parameter space visualizations. These results expose a gap between pretraining based evaluation and downstream performance, and emphasize the need for model selection and evaluation strategies that explicitly account for downstream task characteristics.

User modeling in industrial recommender systems typically produces dense embeddings, which suffer from representational constraints inherent to fixed-dimensional vectors. An emerging alternative for discrete user representation -- using LLMs to generate text-based user tokens -- captures topical co-occurrences rather than deep sequential behavior dynamics and produces outputs that are difficult to ground to item attributes. Meanwhile, Semantic ID (SID) based item tokenization has proven effective for improving generalization in generative recommendation, yet discrete SID-based representations for users remain largely unexplored. We propose TokenMinds, an industrial-scale system that extends the PLUM framework from item retrieval to user modeling, generating both discrete SID-based user tokens and dense user embeddings via an encoder-decoder architecture adapted from pre-trained LLMs. This dual-output design provides the complementary benefits of discrete, semantically grounded user representations while maintaining compatibility with existing downstream models that rely on dense embeddings. Additionally, the shared SID vocabulary naturally extends to cross-scenario modeling: by unifying long-form and short-form video behaviors into a single model, we substantially reduce training and serving costs. We validate TokenMinds through extensive offline experiments and live launches on multiple YouTube surfaces, served on full user traffic (billions of users) via an asynchronous infrastructure that decouples representation generation from downstream scoring. Focusing on ranking as the primary downstream use case, our results confirm the practical viability of SID-based user tokens at industrial scale and demonstrate that tokens and dense embeddings provide complementary value across different production ranking systems.

As agents move from research prototypes to deployed tools, their capability increasingly depends on model-external execution infrastructure, commonly termed the agent harness. Changing this harness while holding model weights fixed can substantially alter task performance. Current agent evaluations typically report downstream performance under a chosen harness, leaving a model's ability to develop the harness itself comparatively underexplored. We introduce HarnessDev, a benchmark that shifts the unit of evaluation from task outputs to runnable infrastructure. HarnessDev covers two stages. In Creation, the agent starts from a minimal seed and a small number of cases, then builds a complete execution system. In Evolution, it starts from its own created harness and iteratively revises it using downstream execution feedback, with the goal of improving benchmark performance. We then evaluate each constructed harness on capability (task success on held-out benchmarks) and efficiency (execution-token cost). The reported Creation results cover six creator LLMs, four domains, and five downstream benchmarks totaling 2,207 unique downstream instances, with hidden evaluation tasks withheld from development. We find that generated harnesses remain substantially behind mature human-engineered references on code and on search and research, while matching or exceeding the selected references on writing and machine-learning experimentation, with large variation in execution cost. Evolution produces some performance gains, but they are unstable and transfer only partially to held-out tasks. Experiments with a fixed runtime model further show that the gains depend strongly on the model executing the harness, indicating limited transfer across models.

Aligning generative flow models on continuous spaces via online reinforcement learning is constrained by intractable trajectory likelihoods. Existing density-approximated policy gradient methods rely on stochastic SDE samplers to construct tractable transition kernels, which introduce training-inference inconsistencies and necessitates Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG). While implicit frameworks such as DiffusionNFT directly optimize forward-process velocity fields, its heuristic fixed-magnitude corrections prevent optimization strength from relative intra-group quality. We propose Flow Advantage-Weighted Rectification (FlowAWR), a paradigm that recasts continuous generative policy optimization as supervised regression toward a theoretically optimal velocity field. Starting from the optimal policy of a KL-constrained reward maximization, FlowAWR derives the optimal velocity field that admits a magnitude-aware, advantage-weighted rectification form, yielding SDE-free optimization and CFG-free generation. In comparative evaluations on SD3.5-Medium, FlowAWR achieves improved alignment performance alongside a 2times to 5times convergence acceleration over DiffusionNFT (e.g., reaching a 24.12 PickScore in 1.2k steps, versus 23.82 in 2.0k steps for DiffusionNFT and 23.50 in >4k steps for FlowGRPO). Under multi-reward constraints, FlowAWR sustains generation quality, satisfying structural rules while maintaining stable out-of-domain performance.

This study presents an analytical approach to sector rotation, leveraging both factor models and fundamental metrics. We initiate with a systematic classification of sectors, followed by an empirical investigation into their returns. Through factor analysis, the paper underscores the significance of momentum and short-term reversion in dictating sectoral shifts. A subsequent in-depth fundamental analysis evaluates metrics such as PE, PB, EV-to-EBITDA, Dividend Yield, among others. Our primary contribution lies in developing a predictive framework based on these fundamental indicators. The constructed models, post rigorous training, exhibit noteworthy predictive capabilities. The findings furnish a nuanced understanding of sector rotation strategies, with implications for asset management and portfolio construction in the financial domain.

Privacy restrictions hinder the sharing of real-world Water Distribution Network (WDN) models, limiting the application of emerging data-driven machine learning, which typically requires extensive observations. To address this challenge, we propose the dataset DiTEC-WDN that comprises 36,000 unique scenarios simulated over either short-term (24 hours) or long-term (1 year) periods. We constructed this dataset using an automated pipeline that optimizes crucial parameters (e.g., pressure, flow rate, and demand patterns), facilitates large-scale simulations, and records discrete, synthetic but hydraulically realistic states under standard conditions via rule validation and post-hoc analysis. With a total of 228 million generated graph-based states, DiTEC-WDN can support a variety of machine-learning tasks, including graph-level, node-level, and link-level regression, as well as time-series forecasting. This contribution, released under a public license, encourages open scientific research in the critical water sector, eliminates the risk of exposing sensitive data, and fulfills the need for a large-scale water distribution network benchmark for study comparisons and scenario analysis.

Off-Policy Evaluation (OPE) aims to assess the effectiveness of counterfactual policies using only offline logged data and is often used to identify the top-k promising policies for deployment in online A/B tests. Existing evaluation metrics for OPE estimators primarily focus on the "accuracy" of OPE or that of downstream policy selection, neglecting risk-return tradeoff in the subsequent online policy deployment. To address this issue, we draw inspiration from portfolio evaluation in finance and develop a new metric, called SharpeRatio@k, which measures the risk-return tradeoff of policy portfolios formed by an OPE estimator under varying online evaluation budgets (k). We validate our metric in two example scenarios, demonstrating its ability to effectively distinguish between low-risk and high-risk estimators and to accurately identify the most efficient one. Efficiency of an estimator is characterized by its capability to form the most advantageous policy portfolios, maximizing returns while minimizing risks during online deployment, a nuance that existing metrics typically overlook. To facilitate a quick, accurate, and consistent evaluation of OPE via SharpeRatio@k, we have also integrated this metric into an open-source software, SCOPE-RL (https://github.com/hakuhodo-technologies/scope-rl). Employing SharpeRatio@k and SCOPE-RL, we conduct comprehensive benchmarking experiments on various estimators and RL tasks, focusing on their risk-return tradeoff. These experiments offer several interesting directions and suggestions for future OPE research.

This paper introduces StreamV2V, a diffusion model that achieves real-time streaming video-to-video (V2V) translation with user prompts. Unlike prior V2V methods using batches to process limited frames, we opt to process frames in a streaming fashion, to support unlimited frames. At the heart of StreamV2V lies a backward-looking principle that relates the present to the past. This is realized by maintaining a feature bank, which archives information from past frames. For incoming frames, StreamV2V extends self-attention to include banked keys and values and directly fuses similar past features into the output. The feature bank is continually updated by merging stored and new features, making it compact but informative. StreamV2V stands out for its adaptability and efficiency, seamlessly integrating with image diffusion models without fine-tuning. It can run 20 FPS on one A100 GPU, being 15x, 46x, 108x, and 158x faster than FlowVid, CoDeF, Rerender, and TokenFlow, respectively. Quantitative metrics and user studies confirm StreamV2V's exceptional ability to maintain temporal consistency.

Cloud computing and DevOps have made microservices a common architecture for scalable, maintainable software systems. However, migrating monoliths to microservices remains challenging due to tight coupling and unclear service boundaries. Existing decomposition approaches typically rely on either structural dependencies or semantic similarity signals, but rarely integrate both within a unified representation learning objective. This paper proposes TripleBound, a hybrid framework for automated monolith-to-microservices decomposition that augments a heterogeneous graph neural network with weakly supervised triplet constraints derived from parser-inferred service groups based on package structure, naming conventions, and code location. TripleBound injects triplet-based constraints directly into the shared structural latent space, enabling both signals to be jointly optimized during representation learning. Structural dependencies are captured using CHGNN, which models the monolith as a heterogeneous graph with program nodes, resource nodes, CALL edges, and CRUD edges. Semantic relationships are incorporated through triplet constraints generated from parser-inferred service groups. Evaluation on AcmeAir, DayTrader, PlantsByWebSphere, and JPetStore shows that TripleBound achieves the highest composite decomposition score under the selected weighting on AcmeAir, DayTrader, and JPetStore compared to CHGNN and MonoEmbed, while CHGNN remains stronger on PlantsByWebSphere. Per-metric analysis reveals trade-offs: gains in structural modularity and inter-partition coupling are accompanied by higher entity distribution imbalance on some datasets. Alternative composite weightings preserve TripleBound's first-place ranking on AcmeAir and DayTrader but not on JPetStore, showing that the aggregate ranking is metric-dependent.

AI inference services -- API subscriptions, enterprise chat tools, and SaaS products with embedded AI features -- fall unambiguously within Scope 3 Category 1 under the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), which requires disclosure for fiscal years starting January 2024. Yet no standardised methodology exists for including them in corporate GHG inventories. Current practice either omits the category entirely or applies a generic economic input-output (EEIO) factor calibrated to the ICT sector as a whole, overestimating AI inference emissions by 10-40x relative to physically derived alternatives. We propose a four-tier framework that matches estimation precision to the data organisations can realistically obtain, progressing from direct token-based physical estimation -- using GPU energy benchmarks and regional grid carbon intensities -- down to a spend-based EEIO fallback for services where no usage data exists. Emission factors are derived from peer-reviewed GPU energy benchmarks (ML.ENERGY Leaderboard v3), confirmed grid carbon intensities (EPA eGRID 2023; Ember 2023), and published water use effectiveness data (Li et al., 2025). Applied to a 200-person European firm, the framework yields a total below 1 tCO2e, illustrating that the compliance challenge is methodological rather than magnitude-driven. We further document a water-carbon trade-off that current ESG tools do not surface: Sweden's hydro-dominated grid delivers the lowest carbon intensity in our dataset but the highest water footprint, with direct implications for data centre location strategy.

The transformative power of AI is undeniable - but as user adoption accelerates, so does the need to understand and mitigate the environmental impact of AI serving. However, no studies have measured AI serving environmental metrics in a production environment. This paper addresses this gap by proposing and executing a comprehensive methodology for measuring the energy usage, carbon emissions, and water consumption of AI inference workloads in a large-scale, AI production environment. Our approach accounts for the full stack of AI serving infrastructure - including active AI accelerator power, host system energy, idle machine capacity, and data center energy overhead. Through detailed instrumentation of Google's AI infrastructure for serving the Gemini AI assistant, we find the median Gemini Apps text prompt consumes 0.24 Wh of energy - a figure substantially lower than many public estimates. We also show that Google's software efficiency efforts and clean energy procurement have driven a 33x reduction in energy consumption and a 44x reduction in carbon footprint for the median Gemini Apps text prompt over one year. We identify that the median Gemini Apps text prompt uses less energy than watching nine seconds of television (0.24 Wh) and consumes the equivalent of five drops of water (0.26 mL). While these impacts are low compared to other daily activities, reducing the environmental impact of AI serving continues to warrant important attention. Towards this objective, we propose that a comprehensive measurement of AI serving environmental metrics is critical for accurately comparing models, and to properly incentivize efficiency gains across the full AI serving stack.

Multi-agent LLM systems that generate structured workflows from natural-language requests are now deployed in production across cloud automation, DevOps, and enterprise process orchestration. Operating such systems exposes a recurring change-management problem. Routine updates, such as re-running the same input, swapping the underlying LLM, or refactoring an agent's prompt or orchestration code, frequently produce workflows that differ substantially from previously validated references. Engineers are then left without a principled way to decide whether a change is safe to ship. Automatic workflow evaluation is the natural tool for answering this question. In practice, however, metric scores are poorly calibrated, and a numeric change rarely communicates the severity of the underlying degradation. We introduce WorkflowPerturb, a controlled benchmark for studying workflow evaluation metrics by applying realistic, graded perturbations to golden workflows. WorkflowPerturb contains 4,973 golden workflows and 44,757 perturbed variants across three perturbation types (Missing Steps, Compressed Steps, and Description Changes), each applied at severity levels of 10%, 30%, and 50%. We benchmark multiple metric families and analyze their sensitivity and calibration using expected score trajectories and residuals. Our results characterize systematic differences across metric families and support severity-aware interpretation of workflow evaluation scores in change-management settings. Our dataset will be released upon acceptance.

Every public LLM cost calculator we surveyed treats GPU utilization as a fixed input -- entered by the user, baked in as a preset, or silently assumed at 100% -- never measured against the operator's actual load. We show that this assumption is the dominant source of error: on identical H100 hardware, effective cost spans \0.21 to 15.25 per million output tokens, an underutilization penalty of 2.5-24x across low-to-moderate enterprise loads (1-10 rps) and up to 36.3x near idle -- driven by one operator-controlled variable, offered request rate lambda, which sets in-flight concurrency via Little's Law and which no open-source calculator exposes. Because calculators take utilization as a user-supplied input, any utilization-naive estimate understates true cost by exactly 1/U, systematically mispricing self-hosting -- most severely over-selling it for low-traffic workloads. We propose a measurement methodology that parameterizes the relationship as C_eff = f(H, M, Q, lambda, L), validate it with 42 benchmarks across dense, ultra-sparse MoE, and sparse MoE models, and release vllm-cost-meter, an open-source cost meter that attaches to a live vLLM server and reports real \$/M-tokens against the operator's own traffic. We further show that FP8 quantization benefits the MoE architectures we tested roughly 2.2-2.4x more than the dense model (+69 to +74% vs. +31% peak throughput; n=3, broader validation needed), and our data are consistent with active parameter count, not total model size, being a primary predictor of saturation economics. To rule out single-hardware confounding we repeat the core sweep on A100 80GB PCIe (56 runs): the load-driven spread reproduces at 7.0-11.4x, the active-parameters ordering survives at FP8, and the dense-FP8 advantage inverts on silicon without native FP8 tensor cores -- a hardware-conditional caveat the framework already accommodates.

Modern code generation has made significant strides in functional correctness and execution efficiency. However, these systems often overlook a critical dimension in real-world software development: maintainability. To handle dynamic requirements with minimal rework, we propose MaintainCoder as a pioneering solution. It integrates the Waterfall model, design patterns, and multi-agent collaboration to systematically enhance cohesion, reduce coupling, achieving clear responsibility boundaries and better maintainability. We also introduce MaintainCoder, a benchmark comprising requirement changes and novel dynamic metrics on maintenance efforts. Experiments demonstrate that existing code generation methods struggle to meet maintainability standards when requirements evolve. In contrast, MaintainCoder improves dynamic maintainability metrics by more than 60% with even higher correctness of initial codes. Furthermore, while static metrics fail to accurately reflect maintainability and even contradict each other, our proposed dynamic metrics exhibit high consistency. Our work not only provides the foundation for maintainable code generation, but also highlights the need for more realistic and comprehensive code generation research. Resources: https://github.com/IAAR-Shanghai/MaintainCoder.

This paper introduces the Opus Workflow Evaluation Framework, a probabilistic-normative formulation for quantifying Workflow quality and efficiency. It integrates notions of correctness, reliability, and cost into a coherent mathematical model that enables direct comparison, scoring, and optimization of Workflows. The framework combines the Opus Workflow Reward, a probabilistic function estimating expected performance through success likelihood, resource usage, and output gain, with the Opus Workflow Normative Penalties, a set of measurable functions capturing structural and informational quality across Cohesion, Coupling, Observability, and Information Hygiene. It supports automated Workflow assessment, ranking, and optimization within modern automation systems such as Opus and can be integrated into Reinforcement Learning loops to guide Workflow discovery and refinement. In this paper, we introduce the Opus Workflow Reward model that formalizes Workflow success as a probabilistic expectation over costs and outcomes. We define measurable Opus Workflow Normative Penalties capturing structural, semantic, and signal-related properties of Workflows. Finally, we propose a unified optimization formulation for identifying and ranking optimal Workflows under joint Reward-Penalty trade-offs.

Reward modeling (a.k.a., preference modeling) is instrumental for aligning large language models with human preferences, particularly within the context of reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF). While conventional reward models (RMs) have exhibited remarkable scalability, they oft struggle with fundamental functionality such as arithmetic computation, code execution, and factual lookup. In this paper, we propose a tool-augmented preference modeling approach, named Themis, to address these limitations by empowering RMs with access to external environments, including calculators and search engines. This approach not only fosters synergy between tool utilization and reward grading but also enhances interpretive capacity and scoring reliability. Our study delves into the integration of external tools into RMs, enabling them to interact with diverse external sources and construct task-specific tool engagement and reasoning traces in an autoregressive manner. We validate our approach across a wide range of domains, incorporating seven distinct external tools. Our experimental results demonstrate a noteworthy overall improvement of 17.7% across eight tasks in preference ranking. Furthermore, our approach outperforms Gopher 280B by 7.3% on TruthfulQA task in zero-shot evaluation. In human evaluations, RLHF trained with Themis attains an average win rate of 32% when compared to baselines across four distinct tasks. Additionally, we provide a comprehensive collection of tool-related RM datasets, incorporating data from seven distinct tool APIs, totaling 15,000 instances. We have made the code, data, and model checkpoints publicly available to facilitate and inspire further research advancements\url{https://github.com/ernie-research/Tool-Augmented-Reward-Model}.

Forecasting multiple future events within a given time horizon is essential for applications in finance, retail, social networks, and healthcare. Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP) provide a principled framework to model both the timing and labels of events. However, most existing research focuses on predicting only the next event, leaving long-horizon forecasting largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce HoTPP, the first benchmark specifically designed to rigorously evaluate long-horizon predictions. We identify shortcomings in widely used evaluation metrics, propose a theoretically grounded T-mAP metric, present strong statistical baselines, and offer efficient implementations of popular models. Our empirical results demonstrate that modern MTPP approaches often underperform simple statistical baselines. Furthermore, we analyze the diversity of predicted sequences and find that most methods exhibit mode collapse. Finally, we analyze the impact of autoregression and intensity-based losses on prediction quality, and outline promising directions for future research. The HoTPP source code, hyperparameters, and full evaluation results are available at GitHub.

Reconciling platform revenue with user experience in LLM advertising motivates a data-centric foundation. We introduce NaiAD, the first comprehensive dataset for LLM-native advertising comprising 58,999 carefully constructed ad-embedded responses paired with user queries. NaiAD is organized around theoretically grounded evaluation metrics that separately and comprehensively capture user and commercial utility. To mitigate the dimensional collinearity of aligned LLMs, we propose a decoupled generation pipeline that produces structurally diverse samples, ranging from responses that explicitly disentangle stakeholder utilities to responses that are uniformly strong or weak across dimensions. We further provide score labels calibrated by a Variance-Calibrated Prediction-Powered Inference (VC-PPI) framework, aligning automated scoring with human annotations. Mechanistic analyses reveal that successful ad integration relies on reasoning paths that cluster into four distinct semantic strategies. Models leveraging NaiAD internalize these strategies to simultaneously improve user and commercial utility, while enabling independent control over these distinct objectives via in-context learning. Together, these results position NaiAD as a foundational infrastructure for developing future LLM-native ad systems.

In order to solve a task using reinforcement learning, it is necessary to first formalise the goal of that task as a reward function. However, for many real-world tasks, it is very difficult to manually specify a reward function that never incentivises undesirable behaviour. As a result, it is increasingly popular to use reward learning algorithms, which attempt to learn a reward function from data. However, the theoretical foundations of reward learning are not yet well-developed. In particular, it is typically not known when a given reward learning algorithm with high probability will learn a reward function that is safe to optimise. This means that reward learning algorithms generally must be evaluated empirically, which is expensive, and that their failure modes are difficult to anticipate in advance. One of the roadblocks to deriving better theoretical guarantees is the lack of good methods for quantifying the difference between reward functions. In this paper we provide a solution to this problem, in the form of a class of pseudometrics on the space of all reward functions that we call STARC (STAndardised Reward Comparison) metrics. We show that STARC metrics induce both an upper and a lower bound on worst-case regret, which implies that our metrics are tight, and that any metric with the same properties must be bilipschitz equivalent to ours. Moreover, we also identify a number of issues with reward metrics proposed by earlier works. Finally, we evaluate our metrics empirically, to demonstrate their practical efficacy. STARC metrics can be used to make both theoretical and empirical analysis of reward learning algorithms both easier and more principled.

Real-time streamflow monitoring networks generate millions of observations annually, yet maintaining data quality across thousands of remote sensors remains labor-intensive. We introduce HydroGEM (Hydrological Generalizable Encoder for Monitoring), a foundation model for continental-scale streamflow quality control. HydroGEM uses two-stage training: self-supervised pretraining on 6.03 million sequences from 3,724 USGS stations learns hydrological representations, followed by fine-tuning with synthetic anomalies for detection and reconstruction. A hybrid TCN-Transformer architecture (14.2M parameters) captures local temporal patterns and long-range dependencies, while hierarchical normalization handles six orders of magnitude in discharge. On held-out synthetic tests comprising 799 stations with 18 expert-validated anomaly types, HydroGEM achieves F1 = 0.792 for detection and 68.7% reconstruction-error reduction, a 36.3% improvement over existing methods. Zero-shot transfer to 100 Environment and Climate Change Canada stations yields F1 = 0.586, exceeding all baselines and demonstrating cross-national generalization. The model maintains consistent detection across correction magnitudes and aligns with operational seasonal patterns. HydroGEM is designed for human-in-the-loop workflows - outputs are quality control suggestions requiring expert review, not autonomous corrections.

Large language models have shown strong fluency in scientific writing, yet the evaluation of related work generation (RWG) remains limited. Existing RWG evaluations largely inherit summarization-oriented metrics, using lexical or semantic similarity to reference sections as proxies for quality. However, related work writing is fundamentally a citation-level scholarly positioning task: it requires selecting, organizing, and framing prior work to clarify how a target paper relates to, differs from, and contributes beyond existing research.As a result, models may generate coherent and semantically-relevant text while exhibiting academically critical failures, such as inappropriate citation selection or misplaced references, that conventional metrics do not capture.To this end, we introduce RWGBench, a benchmark that evaluates RWG from the perspective of citation decision-making rather than text similarity. RWGBench is constructed from a large-scale collection of 40,108 computer science papers and a retrieval corpus of 1.09 million documents, with a carefully curated test set comprising 100 papers and their corresponding published related work sections.We propose a multi-dimensional evaluation framework that assesses citation selection, contextual appropriateness, organization, and discourse structure.Experiments reveal systematic limitations in current systems that are obscured by standard evaluations, while Oracle studies further disentangle retrieval-level and generation-level bottlenecks. Human evaluation further shows that our citation-centric metrics align substantially better with expert judgment than surface-level text metrics. RWGBench offers a citation-centric testbed for developing and evaluating related work generation systems that are better aligned with scholarly writing practices.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems face significant performance gaps when applied to technical domains requiring precise information extraction from complex documents. Current evaluation methodologies relying on document-level metrics inadequately capture token-resolution retrieval accuracy that is critical for domain-related documents. We propose a framework combining granular evaluation metrics with synthetic data generation to optimize domain-specific RAG performance. First, we introduce token-aware metrics Precision Omega and Intersection-over-Union (IoU) that quantify context preservation versus information density trade-offs inherent in technical texts. Second, we develop a reasoning model-driven pipeline using instruction-tuned LLMs (DeepSeek-R1, DeepSeek-R1 distilled variants, and Phi-4) to generate context-anchored QA pairs with discontinuous reference spans across three specialized corpora: SEC 10-K filings (finance), biomedical abstracts (PubMed), and APT threat reports (cybersecurity). Our empirical analysis reveals critical insights: smaller chunks (less than 10 tokens) improve precision by 31-42% (IoU = 0.071 vs. baseline 0.053) at recall costs (-18%), while domain-specific embedding strategies yield 22% variance in optimal chunk sizing (5-20 tokens). The DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-32B model demonstrates superior concept alignment (+14% mean IoU over alternatives), though no configuration universally dominates. Financial texts favor larger chunks for risk factor coverage (Recall = 0.81 at size = 20), whereas cybersecurity content benefits from atomic segmentation, Precision Omega = 0.28 at size = 5. Our code is available on https://github.com/aryan-jadon/Synthetic-Data-Generation-and-Evaluation-using-Reasoning-Model

User journeys in e-commerce routinely violate the one-to-one assumption that a clicked item on an advertising platform is the same item later purchased on the merchant's website/app. For a significant number of converting sessions on our platform, users click product A but buy product B -- the Click A, Buy B (CABB) phenomenon. Training recommendation models on raw click-conversion pairs therefore rewards items that merely correlate with purchases, leading to biased learning and sub-optimal conversion rates. We reframe conversion prediction as a multi-task problem with separate heads for Click A Buy A (CABA) and Click A Buy B (CABB). To isolate informative CABB conversions from unrelated CABB conversions, we introduce a taxonomy-aware collaborative filtering weighting scheme where each product is first mapped to a leaf node in a product taxonomy, and a category-to-category similarity matrix is learned from large-scale co-engagement logs. This weighting amplifies pairs that reflect genuine substitutable or complementary relations while down-weighting coincidental cross-category purchases. Offline evaluation on e-commerce sessions reduces normalized entropy by 13.9% versus a last-click attribution baseline. An online A/B test on live traffic shows +0.25% gains in the primary business metric.

The development and training of deep learning models have become increasingly costly and complex. Consequently, software engineers are adopting pre-trained models (PTMs) for their downstream applications. The dynamics of the PTM supply chain remain largely unexplored, signaling a clear need for structured datasets that document not only the metadata but also the subsequent applications of these models. Without such data, the MSR community cannot comprehensively understand the impact of PTM adoption and reuse. This paper presents the PeaTMOSS dataset, which comprises metadata for 281,638 PTMs and detailed snapshots for all PTMs with over 50 monthly downloads (14,296 PTMs), along with 28,575 open-source software repositories from GitHub that utilize these models. Additionally, the dataset includes 44,337 mappings from 15,129 downstream GitHub repositories to the 2,530 PTMs they use. To enhance the dataset's comprehensiveness, we developed prompts for a large language model to automatically extract model metadata, including the model's training datasets, parameters, and evaluation metrics. Our analysis of this dataset provides the first summary statistics for the PTM supply chain, showing the trend of PTM development and common shortcomings of PTM package documentation. Our example application reveals inconsistencies in software licenses across PTMs and their dependent projects. PeaTMOSS lays the foundation for future research, offering rich opportunities to investigate the PTM supply chain. We outline mining opportunities on PTMs, their downstream usage, and cross-cutting questions.

We present metrics for measuring state similarity in Markov decision processes (MDPs) with infinitely many states, including MDPs with continuous state spaces. Such metrics provide a stable quantitative analogue of the notion of bisimulation for MDPs, and are suitable for use in MDP approximation. We show that the optimal value function associated with a discounted infinite horizon planning task varies continuously with respect to our metric distances.

Comprehensively understanding and accurately predicting the performance of large language models across diverse downstream tasks has emerged as a pivotal challenge in NLP research. The pioneering scaling law on downstream works demonstrated intrinsic similarities within model families and utilized such similarities for performance prediction. However, they tend to overlook the similarities between model families and only consider design factors listed in the original scaling law. To overcome these limitations, we introduce a novel framework, Collaborative Performance Prediction (CPP), which significantly enhances prediction accuracy by leveraging the historical performance of various models on downstream tasks and other design factors for both model and task. We also collect a collaborative data sourced from online platforms containing both historical performance and additional design factors. With the support of the collaborative data, CPP not only surpasses traditional scaling laws in predicting the performance of scaled LLMs but also facilitates a detailed analysis of factor importance, an area previously overlooked.

Open rerankers trained for general web retrieval transfer imperfectly to e-commerce, where ranking decisions depend not only on topical relevance but also on user preferences, product constraints, and comparative product fit. These preference signals are difficult to supervise at scale: real search traffic provides authentic queries and candidates but no clean pairwise labels. We present ZooWork-ShopRanker, a family of e-commerce rerankers (0.6B, 4B, and 8B) aligned to judge-labeled shopping preference. Training pairs are labeled by a panel of reasoning large language models (LLMs) from different families acting as a preference oracle, with position-debiased judgments and agreement tiers, and the rerankers are trained on these labels. The aligned 8B flagship then serves as a distillation teacher for the efficient 4B and 0.6B models, which are fit to its scores and sharpened on judged pairs. To measure progress, we introduce ShopRank-Bench, a contamination-limited benchmark of ~10,000 private-traffic preference pairs in both text formats, tiered by how many judge families committed to each label. ZooWork-ShopRanker-8B and -4B significantly outperform the strongest open reranker baseline, every model significantly beats its own un-aligned base, and ZooWork-ShopRanker-0.6B beats its size peer; the gains hold in both formats and extend to common MTEB benchmarks. We release the models and the dual-format ShopRank-Bench to facilitate further research.

Understanding the quality of a performance evaluation metric is crucial for ensuring that model outputs align with human preferences. However, it remains unclear how well each metric captures the diverse aspects of these preferences, as metrics often excel in one particular area but not across all dimensions. To address this, it is essential to systematically calibrate metrics to specific aspects of human preference, catering to the unique characteristics of each aspect. We introduce MetaMetrics, a calibrated meta-metric designed to evaluate generation tasks across different modalities in a supervised manner. MetaMetrics optimizes the combination of existing metrics to enhance their alignment with human preferences. Our metric demonstrates flexibility and effectiveness in both language and vision downstream tasks, showing significant benefits across various multilingual and multi-domain scenarios. MetaMetrics aligns closely with human preferences and is highly extendable and easily integrable into any application. This makes MetaMetrics a powerful tool for improving the evaluation of generation tasks, ensuring that metrics are more representative of human judgment across diverse contexts.

In many real-world settings, a centralized decision-maker must repeatedly allocate finite resources to a population over multiple time steps. Individuals who receive a resource derive some stochastic utility; to characterize the population-level effects of an allocation, the expected individual utilities are then aggregated using a social welfare function (SWF). We formalize this setting and present a general confidence sequence framework for SWF-based online learning and inference, valid for any monotonic, concave, and Lipschitz-continuous SWF. Our key insight is that monotonicity alone suffices to lift confidence sequences from individual utilities to anytime-valid bounds on optimal welfare. Building on this foundation, we propose SWF-UCB, a SWF-agnostic online learning algorithm that achieves near-optimal O(n+nkT) regret (for k resources distributed among n individuals at each of T time steps). We instantiate our framework on three normatively distinct SWF families: Weighted Power Mean, Kolm, and Gini, providing bespoke oracle algorithms for each. Experiments confirm T scaling and reveal rich interactions between k and SWF parameters. This framework naturally supports inference applications such as sequential hypothesis testing, optimal stopping, and policy evaluation.

Inventory-policy comparisons are often difficult to interpret because performance depends on the evaluation contract as much as on the policy itself. Differences in topology, demand regime, information access, feasibility constraints, shortage treatment, and Key Performance Indicator (KPI) definitions can change method rankings. We present gym-invmgmt, a Gymnasium-compatible extension of the OR-Gym inventory-management lineage for auditable cross-paradigm evaluation. The benchmark evaluates optimization, heuristic, and learned controllers under a shared CoreEnv transition, reward, action-bound, and KPI contract, while varying stress conditions through a 22-scenario core grid plus four supplemental MARL-mode rows. Within these released scenarios, informed stochastic programming provides the strongest non-oracle reference, reflecting the value of scenario hedging under forecast access, but at substantially higher online computational cost. Among learned controllers, the Proximal Policy Optimization Transformer variant (PPO-Transformer) achieves the strongest learned-policy quality at fast inference, while Residual Reinforcement Learning (Residual RL) provides competitive hybrid performance. The graph neural network variant (PPO-GNN) is highly competitive on the default divergent topology but less robust on the serial topology. Imitation learning performs well in stationary regimes but degrades under demand shift, and the bounded Large Language Model (LLM) policy-parameter baseline is best interpreted as a diagnostic controller rather than an autonomous inventory optimizer. Overall, the benchmark identifies scenario-conditioned leaders while showing that performance depends jointly on information access, demand shift, topology, and policy representation.

Large language models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated strong capabilities as autonomous agents, showing promise in reasoning, tool use, and sequential decision-making. While prior benchmarks have evaluated LLM agents in domains such as software engineering and scientific discovery, the finance domain remains underexplored, despite its direct relevance to economic value and high-stakes decision-making. Existing financial benchmarks primarily test static knowledge through question answering, but they fall short of capturing the dynamic and iterative nature of trading. To address this gap, we introduce StockBench, a contamination-free benchmark designed to evaluate LLM agents in realistic, multi-month stock trading environments. Agents receive daily market signals -- including prices, fundamentals, and news -- and must make sequential buy, sell, or hold decisions. Performance is assessed using financial metrics such as cumulative return, maximum drawdown, and the Sortino ratio. Our evaluation of state-of-the-art proprietary (e.g., GPT-5, Claude-4) and open-weight (e.g., Qwen3, Kimi-K2, GLM-4.5) models shows that while most LLM agents struggle to outperform the simple buy-and-hold baseline, several models demonstrate the potential to deliver higher returns and manage risk more effectively. These findings highlight both the challenges and opportunities in developing LLM-powered financial agents, showing that excelling at static financial knowledge tasks does not necessarily translate into successful trading strategies. We release StockBench as an open-source resource to support reproducibility and advance future research in this domain.

Video generation has achieved significant advances through rectified flow techniques, but issues like unsmooth motion and misalignment between videos and prompts persist. In this work, we develop a systematic pipeline that harnesses human feedback to mitigate these problems and refine the video generation model. Specifically, we begin by constructing a large-scale human preference dataset focused on modern video generation models, incorporating pairwise annotations across multi-dimensions. We then introduce VideoReward, a multi-dimensional video reward model, and examine how annotations and various design choices impact its rewarding efficacy. From a unified reinforcement learning perspective aimed at maximizing reward with KL regularization, we introduce three alignment algorithms for flow-based models by extending those from diffusion models. These include two training-time strategies: direct preference optimization for flow (Flow-DPO) and reward weighted regression for flow (Flow-RWR), and an inference-time technique, Flow-NRG, which applies reward guidance directly to noisy videos. Experimental results indicate that VideoReward significantly outperforms existing reward models, and Flow-DPO demonstrates superior performance compared to both Flow-RWR and standard supervised fine-tuning methods. Additionally, Flow-NRG lets users assign custom weights to multiple objectives during inference, meeting personalized video quality needs. Project page: https://gongyeliu.github.io/videoalign.

Last-mile logistics (LML) is characterized by high fragmentation, yet existing research treats this as an exogenous constraint rather than a quantifiable and optimizable system property. This paper introduces a framework for measuring LML complexity using structural entropy, derived from Boltzmann's statistical mechanics. Unlike traditional KPIs such as distance or cost, structural entropy quantifies the cardinality of the configuration space, providing a diagnostic of inherent system disorder. We establish a formal duality with Shannon entropy, linking absolute complexity burden to distributional balance. We apply our entropy framework to 6,112 Amazon last-mile routes across five U.S. cities. Current operations exhibit persistently high normalized entropy, indicating near-maximal fragmentation. A stable non-linear scaling relationship between entropy and route distance validates the metric as a predictive indicator of operational difficulty. To evaluate spatial consolidation, we develop a system-wide entropy measure accounting for all movements by both carriers and customers. We establish a theoretical conservation principle: under idealized conditions, spatial consolidation merely redistributes entropy from carrier to customer. Both idealizing conditions are violated in practice, thereby increasing total system entropy. Our system-wide measure reveals that spatial consolidation reduces carrier entropy by up to 40% under aggressive adoption but increases total system entropy by activating customer collection trips, though trip chaining can diminish this effect. Temporal consolidation, by contrast, genuinely reduces entropy by decreasing delivery events without creating new movements. By formalizing fragmentation as a measurable structural property, this research provides a new lens for network design, consolidation policy, and evaluation last-mile system performance.

This paper presents the second ChatGPT4PCG competition at the 2024 IEEE Conference on Games. In this edition of the competition, we follow the first edition, but make several improvements and changes. We introduce a new evaluation metric along with allowing a more flexible format for participants' submissions and making several improvements to the evaluation pipeline. Continuing from the first edition, we aim to foster and explore the realm of prompt engineering (PE) for procedural content generation (PCG). While the first competition saw success, it was hindered by various limitations; we aim to mitigate these limitations in this edition. We introduce diversity as a new metric to discourage submissions aimed at producing repetitive structures. Furthermore, we allow submission of a Python program instead of a prompt text file for greater flexibility in implementing advanced PE approaches, which may require control flow, including conditions and iterations. We also make several improvements to the evaluation pipeline with a better classifier for similarity evaluation and better-performing function signatures. We thoroughly evaluate the effectiveness of the new metric and the improved classifier. Additionally, we perform an ablation study to select a function signature to instruct ChatGPT for level generation. Finally, we provide implementation examples of various PE techniques in Python and evaluate their preliminary performance. We hope this competition serves as a resource and platform for learning about PE and PCG in general.

This study explores the proactive ability of LLMs to seek user support. We propose metrics to evaluate the trade-off between performance improvements and user burden, and investigate whether LLMs can determine when to request help under varying information availability. Our experiments show that without external feedback, many LLMs struggle to recognize their need for user support. The findings highlight the importance of external signals and provide insights for future research on improving support-seeking strategies. Source code: https://github.com/appier-research/i-need-help

Process Reward Models (PRMs) have emerged as a promising framework for supervising intermediate reasoning in large language models (LLMs), yet existing PRMs are primarily trained on general or Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) domains and fall short in domain-specific contexts such as finance, where reasoning is more structured, symbolic, and sensitive to factual and regulatory correctness. We introduce Fin-PRM, a domain-specialized, trajectory-aware PRM tailored to evaluate intermediate reasoning steps in financial tasks. Fin-PRM integrates step-level and trajectory-level reward supervision, enabling fine-grained evaluation of reasoning traces aligned with financial logic. We apply Fin-PRM in both offline and online reward learning settings, supporting three key applications: (i) selecting high-quality reasoning trajectories for distillation-based supervised fine-tuning, (ii) providing dense process-level rewards for reinforcement learning, and (iii) guiding reward-informed Best-of-N inference at test time. Experimental results on financial reasoning benchmarks, including CFLUE and FinQA, demonstrate that Fin-PRM consistently outperforms general-purpose PRMs and strong domain baselines in trajectory selection quality. Downstream models trained with Fin-PRM yield substantial improvements with baselines, with gains of 12.9\% in supervised learning, 5.2\% in reinforcement learning, and 5.1\% in test-time performance. These findings highlight the value of domain-specialized reward modeling for aligning LLMs with expert-level financial reasoning. Our project resources will be available at https://github.com/aliyun/qwen-dianjin.

With the rapid growth in language processing applications, fairness has emerged as an important consideration in data-driven solutions. Although various fairness definitions have been explored in the recent literature, there is lack of consensus on which metrics most accurately reflect the fairness of a system. In this work, we propose a new formulation : ACCUMULATED PREDICTION SENSITIVITY, which measures fairness in machine learning models based on the model's prediction sensitivity to perturbations in input features. The metric attempts to quantify the extent to which a single prediction depends on a protected attribute, where the protected attribute encodes the membership status of an individual in a protected group. We show that the metric can be theoretically linked with a specific notion of group fairness (statistical parity) and individual fairness. It also correlates well with humans' perception of fairness. We conduct experiments on two text classification datasets : JIGSAW TOXICITY, and BIAS IN BIOS, and evaluate the correlations between metrics and manual annotations on whether the model produced a fair outcome. We observe that the proposed fairness metric based on prediction sensitivity is statistically significantly more correlated with human annotation than the existing counterfactual fairness metric.

Many smart grid applications involve data mining, clustering, classification, identification, and anomaly detection, among others. These applications primarily depend on the measurement of similarity, which is the distance between different time series or subsequences of a time series. The commonly used time series distance measures, namely Euclidean Distance (ED) and Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), do not quantify the flexible nature of electricity usage data in terms of temporal dynamics. As a result, there is a need for a new distance measure that can quantify both the amplitude and temporal changes of electricity time series for smart grid applications, e.g., demand response and load profiling. This paper introduces a novel distance measure to compare electricity usage patterns. The method consists of two phases that quantify the effort required to reshape one time series into another, considering both amplitude and temporal changes. The proposed method is evaluated against ED and DTW using real-world data in three smart grid applications. Overall, the proposed measure outperforms ED and DTW in accurately identifying the best load scheduling strategy, anomalous days with irregular electricity usage, and determining electricity users' behind-the-meter (BTM) equipment.

Commit messages are natural language descriptions of code changes, which are important for program understanding and maintenance. However, writing commit messages manually is time-consuming and laborious, especially when the code is updated frequently. Various approaches utilizing generation or retrieval techniques have been proposed to automatically generate commit messages. To achieve a better understanding of how the existing approaches perform in solving this problem, this paper conducts a systematic and in-depth analysis of the state-of-the-art models and datasets. We find that: (1) Different variants of the BLEU metric are used in previous works, which affects the evaluation and understanding of existing methods. (2) Most existing datasets are crawled only from Java repositories while repositories in other programming languages are not sufficiently explored. (3) Dataset splitting strategies can influence the performance of existing models by a large margin. Some models show better performance when the datasets are split by commit, while other models perform better when the datasets are split by timestamp or by project. Based on our findings, we conduct a human evaluation and find the BLEU metric that best correlates with the human scores for the task. We also collect a large-scale, information-rich, and multi-language commit message dataset MCMD and evaluate existing models on this dataset. Furthermore, we conduct extensive experiments under different dataset splitting strategies and suggest the suitable models under different scenarios. Based on the experimental results and findings, we provide feasible suggestions for comprehensively evaluating commit message generation models and discuss possible future research directions. We believe this work can help practitioners and researchers better evaluate and select models for automatic commit message generation.

Late payments and limited working capital propagate liquidity stress across supply chains, especially among small and medium sized enterprises. This paper develops a path enabled clearing framework for invoice backed trade networks and evaluates Byppay, a local compensation procedure based on repeated three party reductions. Unlike cycle restricted netting, which can clear only obligations embedded in directed cycles, Byppay can also reduce obligations along open chains while preserving node net positions on a combined post settlement state composed of the residual invoice graph and a generated settlement instruction layer. The paper contributes by formalizing this framework for invoice networks, defining a comparable post settlement metric system, specifying deterministic benchmark procedures, and assessing them on the same real invoice graphs. The empirical analysis uses the 2021 IMI invoice corpus of 133,191 invoices totaling EUR 19.67 billion. On the annual aggregate, the cycle restricted Netting benchmark achieves EUR 4.13 billion of debt relief, or 20.99%, whereas Byppay achieves EUR 10.60 billion, or 53.87%. In the metric system adopted here, gross obligation reduction and liquidity relief are both measured on post settlement payable mass and are therefore identical for both procedures. The results show that path enabled local compensation reaches a substantially larger reduction fixed point than a cycle restricted benchmark on the same invoice graphs, while also supporting a deployable execution logic compatible with selective disclosure and distributed coordination.

Automated metrics for machine translation attempt to replicate human judgment. Unlike humans, who often assess a translation in the context of multiple alternatives, these metrics typically consider only the source sentence and a single translation. This discrepancy in the evaluation setup may negatively impact the performance of automated metrics. We propose two automated metrics that incorporate additional information beyond the single translation. COMET-polycand uses alternative translations of the same source sentence to compare and contrast with the translation at hand, thereby providing a more informed assessment of its quality. COMET-polyic, inspired by retrieval-based in-context learning, takes in translations of similar source texts along with their human-labeled quality scores to guide the evaluation. We find that including a single additional translation in COMET-polycand improves the segment-level metric performance (0.079 to 0.118 Kendall's tau-b correlation), with further gains when more translations are added. Incorporating retrieved examples in COMET-polyic yields similar improvements (0.079 to 0.116 Kendall's tau-b correlation). We release our models publicly.

Neural scaling laws predict how language model performance improves with increased training inputs. While aggregate metrics like validation loss can follow smooth power-law curves, individual downstream tasks exhibit diverse scaling behaviors: some improve monotonically, others plateau, and some even degrade with scale. We argue that predicting downstream performance from validation loss suffers from two limitations: averaging token-level losses obscures signal, and no simple parametric family can capture the full spectrum of scaling behaviors. To address this, we propose Neural Neural Scaling Laws (NeuNeu), a neural network that frames scaling law prediction as time-series extrapolation. NeuNeu combines temporal context from observed accuracy trajectories with token-level validation losses, learning to predict future performance without the limitations inherent in assuming a specific functional form. Trained entirely on open-source model checkpoints from HuggingFace, NeuNeu achieves 1.99% mean absolute error in predicting model accuracy on 66 downstream tasks -- a 44% reduction compared to logistic scaling laws (3.56% MAE). Furthermore, NeuNeu generalizes zero-shot to unseen model families, architectures, parameter counts, and downstream tasks. Our work suggests that predicting downstream scaling directly from data outperforms parametric alternatives.

Reward models are used throughout the post-training of language models to capture nuanced signals from preference data and provide a training target for optimization across instruction following, reasoning, safety, and more domains. The community has begun establishing best practices for evaluating reward models, from the development of benchmarks that test capabilities in specific skill areas to others that test agreement with human preferences. At the same time, progress in evaluation has not been mirrored by the effectiveness of reward models in downstream tasks -- simpler direct alignment algorithms are reported to work better in many cases. This paper introduces RewardBench 2, a new multi-skill reward modeling benchmark designed to bring new, challenging data for accuracy-based reward model evaluation -- models score about 20 points on average lower on RewardBench 2 compared to the first RewardBench -- while being highly correlated with downstream performance. Compared to most other benchmarks, RewardBench 2 sources new human prompts instead of existing prompts from downstream evaluations, facilitating more rigorous evaluation practices. In this paper, we describe our benchmark construction process and report how existing models perform on it, while quantifying how performance on the benchmark correlates with downstream use of the models in both inference-time scaling algorithms, like best-of-N sampling, and RLHF training algorithms like proximal policy optimization.

Risk decision systems in fraud detection and credit scoring operate under structural label absence: ground truth arrives weeks to months after decisions are made. During this blind period, model performance may degrade silently, eroding the governance evidence that justifies automated decisions. Existing drift detection methods either require labels (supervised detectors) or detect statistical change without distinguishing harmful degradation from benign distributional evolution (unsupervised detectors). No existing framework integrates drift detection with governance evidence assessment and operational response. This paper presents a label-free governance monitoring extension to the Governance Drift Toolkit that produces governance alerts rather than statistical alarms. The monitoring architecture applies composite multi-proxy monitoring across four proxy monitors (score distribution, feature drift, prediction entropy, confidence distribution), with governance-calibrated thresholds. Empirical evaluation on the Lending Club credit scoring dataset (1.37M loans, 11 years) demonstrates three findings. First, raw proxy metrics (Feature PSI delta up to 1.84, Score PSI delta up to 0.92) distinguish injected covariate degradation from natural temporal drift in an offline evaluation setting. Second, pure concept drift in P(Y|X) produces exactly zero delta across all proxy metrics in all windows, confirming the irreducible blind spot of label-free monitoring as a structural verification. Third, the composite score provides monotonic severity progression as more monitors trigger (0.583 to 0.833 to 1.000), enabling graduated governance response. Cross-domain comparison with IEEE-CIS fraud detection results shows the detectable/undetectable boundary is consistent across both domains. The toolkit and evaluation code are available as open-source artifacts.

We introduce the Polymarket-v1 Database: the complete on-chain trade archive of Polymarket's first-generation CTF Exchange on Polygon, spanning 2022-11-21 to 2026-04-28 and covering the full contract lifecycle from first settlement to natural termination. The dataset comprises 1.20 billion trade records across 1.30 million markets with $61 billion in nominal volume. Its defining feature is 100% ground-truth aggressor direction derived from the blockchain settlement layer, a property unavailable in existing prediction market archives, which rely on heuristic inference. We use this truth-aligned archive to benchmark standard microstructure tools and document three findings. First, the tick rule and bulk volume classification achieve near-random aggregate accuracy (49.83% and 50.51%), but this masks a systematic, correctable price-level gradient driven by positive trade direction autocorrelation and concentrated market-making -- two structural features of prediction markets that violate the mean-reversion assumption embedded in classical classifiers. Second, these classification errors propagate into downstream metrics: inferred VPIN diverges substantially from ground-truth VPIN, and OFI estimates are directionally biased, with material consequences for Transaction Cost Analysis. Third, ground-truth microstructure quality predicts forecasting performance in ways that classification-based proxies cannot recover: True VPIN positively predicts Brier scores, while Gibbs spread negatively predicts them -- a selection effect reflecting that high-spread niche markets attract informed specialists rather than noise traders. Replacing ground-truth metrics with classified proxies attenuates both relationships, illustrating that measurement accuracy at the transaction level is a prerequisite for reliable inference about prediction market design and probability calibration.

Background: Collaborative Software Package Registries (SPRs) are an integral part of the software supply chain. Much engineering work synthesizes SPR package into applications. Prior research has examined SPRs for traditional software, such as NPM (JavaScript) and PyPI (Python). Pre-Trained Model (PTM) Registries are an emerging class of SPR of increasing importance, because they support the deep learning supply chain. Aims: Recent empirical research has examined PTM registries in ways such as vulnerabilities, reuse processes, and evolution. However, no existing research synthesizes them to provide a systematic understanding of the current knowledge. Some of the existing research includes qualitative claims lacking quantitative analysis. Our research fills these gaps by providing a knowledge synthesis and quantitative analyses. Methods: We first conduct a systematic literature review (SLR). We then observe that some of the claims are qualitative. We identify quantifiable metrics associated with those claims, and measure in order to substantiate these claims. Results: From our SLR, we identify 12 claims about PTM reuse on the HuggingFace platform, 4 of which lack quantitative validation. We successfully test 3 of these claims through a quantitative analysis, and directly compare one with traditional software. Our findings corroborate qualitative claims with quantitative measurements. Our findings are: (1) PTMs have a much higher turnover rate than traditional software, indicating a dynamic and rapidly evolving reuse environment within the PTM ecosystem; and (2) There is a strong correlation between documentation quality and PTM popularity. Conclusions: We confirm qualitative research claims with concrete metrics, supporting prior qualitative and case study research. Our measures show further dynamics of PTM reuse, inspiring research infrastructure and new measures.

The recent adoption of artificial intelligence in socio-technical systems raises concerns about the black-box nature of the resulting decisions in fields such as hiring, finance, admissions, etc. If data subjects -- such as job applicants, loan applicants, and students -- receive an unfavorable outcome, they may be interested in algorithmic recourse, which involves updating certain features to yield a more favorable result when re-evaluated by algorithmic decision-making. Unfortunately, when individuals do not fully understand the incremental steps needed to change their circumstances, they risk following misguided paths that can lead to significant, long-term adverse consequences. Existing recourse approaches focus exclusively on the final recourse goal but neglect the possible incremental steps to reach the goal with real-life constraints, user preferences, and model artifacts. To address this gap, we formulate a visual analytic workflow for incremental recourse planning in collaboration with AI/ML experts and contribute an interactive visualization interface that helps data subjects efficiently navigate the recourse alternatives and make an informed decision. We present a usage scenario and subjective feedback from observational studies with twelve graduate students using a real-world dataset, which demonstrates that our approach can be instrumental for data subjects in choosing a suitable recourse path.

Measures for research activity and impact have become an integral ingredient in the assessment of a wide range of entities (individual researchers, organizations, instruments, regions, disciplines). Traditional bibliometric indicators, like publication and citation based indicators, provide an essential part of this picture, but cannot describe the complete picture. Since reading scholarly publications is an essential part of the research life cycle, it is only natural to introduce measures for this activity in attempts to quantify the efficiency, productivity and impact of an entity. Citations and reads are significantly different signals, so taken together, they provide a more complete picture of research activity. Most scholarly publications are now accessed online, making the study of reads and their patterns possible. Click-stream logs allow us to follow information access by the entire research community, real-time. Publication and citation datasets just reflect activity by authors. In addition, download statistics will help us identify publications with significant impact, but which do not attract many citations. Click-stream signals are arguably more complex than, say, citation signals. For one, they are a superposition of different classes of readers. Systematic downloads by crawlers also contaminate the signal, as does browsing behavior. We discuss the complexities associated with clickstream data and how, with proper filtering, statistically significant relations and conclusions can be inferred from download statistics. We describe how download statistics can be used to describe research activity at different levels of aggregation, ranging from organizations to countries. These statistics show a correlation with socio-economic indicators. A comparison will be made with traditional bibliometric indicators. We will argue that astronomy is representative of more general trends.

Precise estimation of downstream performance in large language models (LLMs) prior to training is essential for guiding their development process. Scaling laws analysis utilizes the statistics of a series of significantly smaller sampling language models (LMs) to predict the performance of the target LLM. For downstream performance prediction, the critical challenge lies in the emergent abilities in LLMs that occur beyond task-specific computational thresholds. In this work, we focus on the pre-training loss as a more computation-efficient metric for performance estimation. Our two-stage approach FLP consists of first estimating a function that maps computational resources (e.g., FLOPs) to the pre-training Loss using a series of fully-converged sampling models, followed by mapping the pre-training loss to downstream task Performance using the intermediate models with emerged performance. In our experiments, this FLP solution accurately predicts the performance of LLMs with 7B and 13B parameters using a series of sampling LMs up to 3B, achieving error margins of 5% and 10%, respectively, and significantly outperforming the FLOPs-to-Performance approach. Further, we present FLP-M, a fundamental approach for performance prediction that addresses the practical need to integrate datasets from multiple sources during pre-training. FLP-M extends the power law analytical function to predict domain-specific pre-training loss based on FLOPs across data sources, and employs a two-layer neural network to model the non-linear relationship between multiple domain-specific loss and downstream performance. By utilizing a 3B LLM trained on a specific ratio and a series of smaller sampling LMs, FLP-M can effectively forecast the performance of 3B and 7B LLMs across various data mixtures for most benchmarks within 10% error margins.

Industrial recommender systems commonly use cascaded retrieval, ranking, and re-ranking pipelines. Although efficient, these pipelines fragment information and objectives across modules, rely on rigid rules, and have limited awareness of real-time intent, leaving session-level shifts among browsing, comparison, and purchase insufficiently addressed. We present DREAM (Developing Recommender Engine with Agentic Methods), an autonomous optimization control architecture that adds a perception-aware, orchestrable, and auditable policy layer atop existing pipelines without replacing them. DREAM has two core components. First, a three-tier Intent Engine fuses on-device signals into structured L0/L1/L2 intent representations; its edge-cloud trigger chain reduces reporting volume to approximately 8.7%. Second, a Meta Engine uses a MetaModel for layered M1-to-M2-to-M3 reasoning: intent summarization, strategy planning informed by Strategy Memory, and parameter translation. It dispatches the resulting parameters through a unified outlet with safety guardrails. A Reward Dual Loop continuously optimizes both components by combining offline simulation for strategy-space exploration with online feedback for outcome calibration, forming a cycle of generation, execution, evaluation, and experience accumulation. Large-scale A/B tests on Taobao's homepage feed show that re-ranking control alone improves IPV by 2.06%, Core IPV by 2.39%, and GMV by 0.88%. Extending control to fine ranking raises these gains to 2.71%, 3.06%, and 1.31%, respectively, while consistently improving PV by more than 1%. These gains require neither replacement of pipeline models nor compromise of serving stability, supporting agentic meta-control as a viable paradigm for industrial recommendation.

Self-evolving agent systems improve by creating, revising, and retiring their own skills, but every such loop rests on a hidden assumption: a reliable evaluation metric already exists. In many real applications it does not. We make three claims. First, metrics can be evolved: our metric loop searches compositions of small drawback detectors under a full evolutionary lifecycle, trained to agree with a ten-item anchored reference set, regularized by consensus over unlabeled outputs, and audited against a held-out anchor it never reads, yielding a transparent, inspectable metric rather than an opaque judge. Second, since no metric exists to beat, the yardstick is recovering what an accurate metric would have enabled, and Double Ratchet, our co-evolution of the metric with a lifecycle-managed skill loop, does so: across code generation (MBPP+), enterprise text-to-SQL (Spider~2.0-Snow), and reference-free report generation, it retains 88--110\% of the held-out lift achieved by the same skill loop driven by ground truth or the best available rubric. Third, safety comes from anchor discipline plus outer audits: removing anchor guards collapses the metric into a vacuous detector while removing the lifecycle does not; and when evolved skills gamed the report rubric, an independent judge caught it, one detector repaired it, and a task-aware judge then preferred the evolved outputs over the pre-evolution baseline in 77\% of decided pairs. We argue this failure-expecting architecture is the right default wherever no reliable automatic verifier exists.

Image generation models have achieved widespread applications. As an instance, the TarFlow model combines the transformer architecture with Normalizing Flow models, achieving state-of-the-art results on multiple benchmarks. However, due to the causal form of attention requiring sequential computation, TarFlow's sampling process is extremely slow. In this paper, we demonstrate that through a series of optimization strategies, TarFlow sampling can be greatly accelerated by using the Gauss-Seidel-Jacobi (abbreviated as GS-Jacobi) iteration method. Specifically, we find that blocks in the TarFlow model have varying importance: a small number of blocks play a major role in image generation tasks, while other blocks contribute relatively little; some blocks are sensitive to initial values and prone to numerical overflow, while others are relatively robust. Based on these two characteristics, we propose the Convergence Ranking Metric (CRM) and the Initial Guessing Metric (IGM): CRM is used to identify whether a TarFlow block is "simple" (converges in few iterations) or "tough" (requires more iterations); IGM is used to evaluate whether the initial value of the iteration is good. Experiments on four TarFlow models demonstrate that GS-Jacobi sampling can significantly enhance sampling efficiency while maintaining the quality of generated images (measured by FID), achieving speed-ups of 4.53x in Img128cond, 5.32x in AFHQ, 2.96x in Img64uncond, and 2.51x in Img64cond without degrading FID scores or sample quality. Code and checkpoints are accessible on https://github.com/encoreus/GS-Jacobi_for_TarFlow

The optimal transport problem for measures supported on non-Euclidean spaces has recently gained ample interest in diverse applications involving representation learning. In this paper, we focus on circular probability measures, i.e., probability measures supported on the unit circle, and introduce a new computationally efficient metric for these measures, denoted as Linear Circular Optimal Transport (LCOT). The proposed metric comes with an explicit linear embedding that allows one to apply Machine Learning (ML) algorithms to the embedded measures and seamlessly modify the underlying metric for the ML algorithm to LCOT. We show that the proposed metric is rooted in the Circular Optimal Transport (COT) and can be considered the linearization of the COT metric with respect to a fixed reference measure. We provide a theoretical analysis of the proposed metric and derive the computational complexities for pairwise comparison of circular probability measures. Lastly, through a set of numerical experiments, we demonstrate the benefits of LCOT in learning representations of circular measures.

Relevance and utility are two frequently used measures to evaluate the effectiveness of an information retrieval (IR) system. Relevance emphasizes the aboutness of a result to a query, while utility refers to the result's usefulness or value to an information seeker. In Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG), high-utility results should be prioritized to feed to LLMs due to their limited input bandwidth. Re-examining RAG's three core components -- relevance ranking derived from retrieval models, utility judgments, and answer generation -- aligns with Schutz's philosophical system of relevances, which encompasses three types of relevance representing different levels of human cognition that enhance each other. These three RAG components also reflect three cognitive levels for LLMs in question-answering. Therefore, we propose an Iterative utiliTy judgmEnt fraMework (ITEM) to promote each step in RAG. We conducted extensive experiments on retrieval (TREC DL, WebAP), utility judgment task (GTI-NQ), and factoid question-answering (NQ) datasets. Experimental results demonstrate significant improvements of ITEM in utility judgments, ranking, and answer generation upon representative baselines.

Congestion is a common failure mode of markets, where consumers compete inefficiently on the same subset of goods (e.g., chasing the same small set of properties on a vacation rental platform). The typical economic story is that prices decongest by balancing supply and demand. But in modern online marketplaces, prices are typically set in a decentralized way by sellers, and the information about items is inevitably partial. The power of a platform is limited to controlling representations -- the subset of information about items presented by default to users. This motivates the present study of decongestion by representation, where a platform seeks to learn representations that reduce congestion and thus improve social welfare. The technical challenge is twofold: relying only on revealed preferences from the choices of consumers, rather than true preferences; and the combinatorial problem associated with representations that determine the features to reveal in the default view. We tackle both challenges by proposing a differentiable proxy of welfare that can be trained end-to-end on consumer choice data. We develop sufficient conditions for when decongestion promotes welfare, and present the results of extensive experiments on both synthetic and real data that demonstrate the utility of our approach.

Evaluating production LLM responses and routing requests across providers in LLM gateways requires fine-grained quality signals and operationally grounded decisions. To address this gap, we present SEAR, a schema-based evaluation and routing system for multi-model, multi-provider LLM gateways. SEAR defines an extensible relational schema covering both LLM evaluation signals (context, intent, response characteristics, issue attribution, and quality scores) and gateway operational metrics (latency, cost, throughput), with cross-table consistency links across around one hundred typed, SQL-queryable columns. To populate the evaluation signals reliably, SEAR proposes self-contained signal instructions, in-schema reasoning, and multi-stage generation that produces database-ready structured outputs. Because signals are derived through LLM reasoning rather than shallow classifiers, SEAR captures complex request semantics, enables human-interpretable routing explanations, and unifies evaluation and routing in a single query layer. Across thousands of production sessions, SEAR achieves strong signal accuracy on human-labeled data and supports practical routing decisions, including large cost reductions with comparable quality.

The GPT-4 technical report suggests that downstream performance can be predicted from pre-training signals, but offers little methodological detail on how to quantify this. This work address this gap by modeling knowledge retention, the capacity of a pre-trained language model to memorize factual information from its corpus, and introduce a principled method to estimate it prior to training. We propose Size-dependent Mutual Information (SMI), an information-theoretic predictor that integrates knowledge frequency, knowledge specificity, and model size to forecast closed-book question answering (QA) accuracy. SMI is validated through large-scale document retrieval over the disclosed pre-training corpora of 21 public and 3 custom models, combined with a robust multi-template QA evaluation. Experiments show that SMI significantly outperforms repetition-based baselines and achieves R^2 > 0.7 in predicting QA accuracy for models above 1B parameters, without additional training. The analysis further reveals diminishing returns from scaling data and model size and provides evidence for an intrinsic upper bound on knowledge retention achievable by pre-training alone, motivating retrieval and other augmentation strategies.

Recent explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods for time series primarily estimate point-wise attribution magnitudes, while overlooking the directional impact on predictions, leading to suboptimal identification of significant points. Our analysis shows that conventional Integrated Gradients (IG) effectively capture critical points with both positive and negative impacts on predictions. However, current evaluation metrics fail to assess this capability, as they inadvertently cancel out opposing feature contributions. To address this limitation, we propose novel evaluation metrics-Cumulative Prediction Difference (CPD) and Cumulative Prediction Preservation (CPP)-to systematically assess whether attribution methods accurately identify significant positive and negative points in time series XAI. Under these metrics, conventional IG outperforms recent counterparts. However, directly applying IG to time series data may lead to suboptimal outcomes, as generated paths ignore temporal relationships and introduce out-of-distribution samples. To overcome these challenges, we introduce TIMING, which enhances IG by incorporating temporal awareness while maintaining its theoretical properties. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world time series benchmarks demonstrate that TIMING outperforms existing time series XAI baselines. Our code is available at https://github.com/drumpt/TIMING.

We develop and counterfactually evaluate a resolution-aware risk-design framework (PIRAP) for perpetual futures whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The framework specifies six components: an index estimator combining mid-price, depth-weighted mid, and time-decayed VWAP; jump-aware tiered margin sized against bounded-event terminal-collapse magnitude; leverage compression schedule contracting toward resolution; resolution-aware funding rule with boundary-aware correction; a multi-stage halt protocol; and an eligibility framework. Two formal non-portability propositions establish that standard basis-only funding paired with continuous-vol static margin fails on bounded-event underlyings. Empirical evaluation uses Polymarket's PMXT v2 archive for 2026-04-21 to 2026-04-27 (13,298-market analysis sample passing adequacy gates from 61,087 ingested; 13,115 resolved within the empirical window for E3). E1 evaluates two pre-registered stylized facts; E2 conducts counterfactual replay across three engine configurations; E3 isolates the resolution-zone protocol's contribution. Results are mixed. Five pre-registered floors: stylized-fact floors (boundary depth asymmetry, terminal-jump magnitude) PASS; welfare-side directional floors (final-hour liquidation -6%, drawdown -5.1% pooled, median PnL +14%) two FAIL one PASS; E3 mechanic floors (final-hour liquidation -80% by halt construction PASS; bad-debt frequency +2.4% FAIL). Three of five materiality floors fail: the framework as specified does not validate deployment, but the empirical record establishes a halt-versus-margin scope distinction (halt addresses execution-channel risk; terminal-jump bad-debt remains margin-side) and documents a pre-emption trade-off constraining the dynamic-margin component. The paper concludes with structural recommendations and explicit non-deployable status.

Tool-using automation systems, from scripts and CI bots to agentic assistants, fail in recurring patterns. Common failures include unsafe side effects, invalid arguments, uncontrolled retries, and leakage of sensitive outputs. Many mitigations are model-centric and prompt-dependent, so they are brittle and do not generalize to non-LLM callers. We present Policy-First Tooling, a model-agnostic permission layer that mediates tool invocation through explicit constraints, risk-aware gating, recovery controls, and auditable explanations. The paper contributes a compact policy DSL, a runtime enforcement architecture with actionable rationale and fix hints, and a reproducible benchmark based on trace replay with controlled fault and misuse injection. In 225 controlled runs across five policy packs and three fault profiles, stricter packs improve violation prevention from 0.000 in P0 to 0.681 in P4, while task success drops from 0.356 to 0.067. Retry amplification decreases from 3.774 in P0 to 1.378 in P4, and leakage recall reaches 0.875 under injected secret outputs. These results make safety to utility trade-offs explicit and measurable.

Foundation models are pre-trained on massive data and transferred to downstream tasks via fine-tuning. This work presents Vision Middleware (ViM), a new learning paradigm that targets unified transferring from a single foundation model to a variety of downstream tasks. ViM consists of a zoo of lightweight plug-in modules, each of which is independently learned on a midstream dataset with a shared frozen backbone. Downstream tasks can then benefit from an adequate aggregation of the module zoo thanks to the rich knowledge inherited from midstream tasks. There are three major advantages of such a design. From the efficiency aspect, the upstream backbone can be trained only once and reused for all downstream tasks without tuning. From the scalability aspect, we can easily append additional modules to ViM with no influence on existing modules. From the performance aspect, ViM can include as many midstream tasks as possible, narrowing the task gap between upstream and downstream. Considering these benefits, we believe that ViM, which the community could maintain and develop together, would serve as a powerful tool to assist foundation models.

We propose a novel methodology (namely, MuLER) that transforms any reference-based evaluation metric for text generation, such as machine translation (MT) into a fine-grained analysis tool. Given a system and a metric, MuLER quantifies how much the chosen metric penalizes specific error types (e.g., errors in translating names of locations). MuLER thus enables a detailed error analysis which can lead to targeted improvement efforts for specific phenomena. We perform experiments in both synthetic and naturalistic settings to support MuLER's validity and showcase its usability in MT evaluation, and other tasks, such as summarization. Analyzing all submissions to WMT in 2014-2020, we find consistent trends. For example, nouns and verbs are among the most frequent POS tags. However, they are among the hardest to translate. Performance on most POS tags improves with overall system performance, but a few are not thus correlated (their identity changes from language to language). Preliminary experiments with summarization reveal similar trends.

We introduce a Cascaded Diffusion Model (Cas-DM) that improves a Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM) by effectively incorporating additional metric functions in training. Metric functions such as the LPIPS loss have been proven highly effective in consistency models derived from the score matching. However, for the diffusion counterparts, the methodology and efficacy of adding extra metric functions remain unclear. One major challenge is the mismatch between the noise predicted by a DDPM at each step and the desired clean image that the metric function works well on. To address this problem, we propose Cas-DM, a network architecture that cascades two network modules to effectively apply metric functions to the diffusion model training. The first module, similar to a standard DDPM, learns to predict the added noise and is unaffected by the metric function. The second cascaded module learns to predict the clean image, thereby facilitating the metric function computation. Experiment results show that the proposed diffusion model backbone enables the effective use of the LPIPS loss, leading to state-of-the-art image quality (FID, sFID, IS) on various established benchmarks.

We investigate a failure mode of large language models (LLMs) in which plain-text prompts elicit excessive outputs, a phenomenon we term Overflow. Unlike jailbreaks or prompt injection, Overflow arises under ordinary interaction settings and can lead to elevated serving cost, latency, and cross-user performance degradation, particularly when scaled across many requests. Beyond usability, the stakes are economic and environmental: unnecessary tokens increase per-request cost and energy consumption, compounding into substantial operational spend and carbon footprint at scale. Moreover, Overflow represents a practical vector for compute amplification and service degradation in shared environments. We introduce BenchOverflow, a model-agnostic benchmark of nine plain-text prompting strategies that amplify output volume without adversarial suffixes or policy circumvention. Using a standardized protocol with a fixed budget of 5000 new tokens, we evaluate nine open- and closed-source models and observe pronounced rightward shifts and heavy tails in length distributions. Cap-saturation rates (CSR@1k/3k/5k) and empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDFs) quantify tail risk; within-prompt variance and cross-model correlations show that Overflow is broadly reproducible yet heterogeneous across families and attack vectors. A lightweight mitigation-a fixed conciseness reminder-attenuates right tails and lowers CSR for all strategies across the majority of models. Our findings position length control as a measurable reliability, cost, and sustainability concern rather than a stylistic quirk. By enabling standardized comparison of length-control robustness across models, BenchOverflow provides a practical basis for selecting deployments that minimize resource waste and operating expense, and for evaluating defenses that curb compute amplification without eroding task performance.

Large language models (LLMs) power many state-of-the-art systems in natural language processing. However, these models are extremely computationally expensive, even at inference time, raising the natural question: when is the extra cost of deploying a larger model worth the anticipated boost in capabilities? Better understanding this tradeoff fundamentally could benefit from an inference efficiency metric that is both (i) easily comparable across models from different providers, and (ii) representative of the true cost of running queries in an isolated performance environment. Unfortunately, access to LLMs today is largely restricted to black-box text generation APIs and raw runtimes measured through this interface do not satisfy these desiderata: model providers can apply various software and hardware optimizations orthogonal to the model, and models served on shared infrastructure are susceptible to performance contention. To circumvent these problems, we propose a new metric for comparing inference efficiency across models. This metric puts models on equal footing as though they were served (i) on uniform hardware and software, and (ii) without performance contention. We call this metric the idealized runtime, and we propose a methodology to efficiently estimate this metric for autoregressive Transformer models. We also propose cost-aware variants that incorporate the number of accelerators needed to serve the model. Using these metrics, we compare ten state-of-the-art LLMs to provide the first analysis of inference efficiency-capability tradeoffs; we make several observations from this analysis, including the fact that the superior inference runtime performance of certain APIs is often a byproduct of optimizations within the API rather than the underlying model. Our methodology also facilitates the efficient comparison of different software and hardware stacks.

Recent work has explored optimizing image signal processing (ISP) pipelines for various tasks by composing predefined modules and adapting them to task-specific objectives. However, jointly optimizing module sequences and parameters remains challenging. Existing approaches rely on neural architecture search (NAS) or step-wise reinforcement learning (RL), but NAS suffers from a training-inference mismatch, while step-wise RL leads to unstable training and high computational overhead due to stage-wise decision-making. We propose POS-ISP, a sequence-level RL framework that formulates modular ISP optimization as a global sequence prediction problem. Our method predicts the entire module sequence and its parameters in a single forward pass and optimizes the pipeline using a terminal task reward, eliminating the need for intermediate supervision and redundant executions. Experiments across multiple downstream tasks show that POS-ISP improves task performance while reducing computational cost, highlighting sequence-level optimization as a stable and efficient paradigm for task-aware ISP. The project page is available at https://w1jyun.github.io/POS-ISP

With the rapid deployment of SCADA systems, how to effectively analyze industrial signals and detect abnormal states is an urgent need for the industry. Due to the significant heterogeneity of these signals, which we summarize as the M5 problem, previous works only focus on small sub-problems and employ specialized models, failing to utilize the synergies between modalities and the powerful scaling law. However, we argue that the M5 signals can be modeled in a unified manner due to the intrinsic similarity. As a result, we propose FISHER, a Foundation model for multi-modal Industrial Signal compreHEnsive Representation. To support arbitrary sampling rates, FISHER considers the increment of sampling rate as the concatenation of sub-band information. Specifically, FISHER takes the STFT sub-band as the modeling unit and adopts a teacher student SSL framework for pre-training. We also develop the RMIS benchmark, which evaluates the representations of M5 industrial signals on multiple health management tasks. Compared with top SSL models, FISHER showcases versatile and outstanding capabilities with a general performance gain up to 5.03%, along with much more efficient scaling curves. We also investigate the scaling law on downstream tasks and derive potential avenues for future works. FISHER is now open-sourced on https://github.com/jianganbai/FISHER

We study whether demonstration-curation metrics that detect defective training episodes also improve the downstream behavior-cloning policy that trains on the curated data. On a contact-rich LIBERO pick-and-place benchmark with a controlled structural defect (early gripper release during the carry phase), we find that the two quantities are sharply decoupled. The metric with the highest defect-detection AUROC (0.804) produces the worst curated policy (13.3% task success), while a metric with a substantially lower AUROC (0.638) produces a policy that nearly matches the oracle trained on ground-truth clean data (90.0% vs. 93.3%). We further show that five of the seven metrics we evaluate exploit episode length as a trivial proxy for the defect label, a confound that inflates reported AUROCs to near-perfect values and disappears once episode length is controlled. Across all conditions, the contaminated baseline succeeds on only 3.3% of rollouts, and the two best curation methods close this to within 3 percentage points of the 93.3% oracle ceiling. Our results argue that curation methods should be evaluated by the policy they produce, not the defects they flag, and that any curation benchmark must control for episode length before reporting detection accuracy. We release the testbed, all metric implementations, and the evaluation pipeline.

Current approaches to AI compliance treat conformity as a binary, audit-time verdict rather than a continuous, measurable property of production systems. We argue that this compliance fiction is structurally ill-suited to the requirements of the EU AI Act, which demands ongoing human oversight and the detection of emergent behavioural drift in deployed systems. We introduce governance from metrics, a principle whereby regulatory compliance is derived as a continuous signal from runtime observability rather than from static assessments. Building on this principle, we present govllm, an open-source framework implementing a governance-driven routing architecture in which model selection is determined by accumulated compliance scores rather than by latency or cost alone. Central to our approach is a panel of regulatory judges - LLM evaluators specialised per criterion (EU AI Act, GDPR, ANSSI, accessibility) - whose inter-judge disagreement we reframe not as noise but as a regulatory uncertainty signal warranting human arbitration. We validate this approach through a ground truth corpus of 49 annotated prompt/response pairs across five regulatory criteria, evaluated by four small language models (SLMs, 1.7B-7B parameters) running fully on-premise. Agreement rates range from 51.5% (mistral:7b) to 69.1% (phi4-mini), with no single model dominating across all criteria - empirically motivating the Profile-as-jury design. We further document three structural failure modes in small regulatory judges and a judge-specific position bias that degrades agreement by up to 25 percentage points across three question-order conditions (original, reversed, permuted). govllm is released as open-source software to support reproducible AI governance research.

Aligning text-to-image flow matching models with human preferences via direct reward backpropagation is sample-efficient but hampered by two well-known pathologies: activations cannot be stored across the full sampling trajectory at modern model scale, and chained Jacobian products across steps inflate the reward gradient as it travels back to early indices. Connector-based methods, such as LeapAlign, address these issues by replacing the full backward trajectory with a short pinned path, highlighting a useful decoupling between sampling and optimization. However, the quality of the resulting gradient depends on how accurately this short path approximates the full rollout, especially over long intervals. We propose FlowBP, a unified surrogate-trajectory framework that treats the backward trajectory itself as the design object. FlowBP keeps a no-gradient cached rollout for sampling, then builds a lightweight backward surrogate from cached and selectively re-forwarded velocities. This view separates four choices: the reward-model input, active set, integration weights, and bridge coupling, and recovers prior direct-gradient methods as particular settings. Within this framework, we instantiate three variants: FlowBP-Sparse uses sparse Euler reconstruction, FlowBP-Bridge adds controlled bridge coupling, and FlowBP-Lagrange raises the order of leap quadrature. All three bound memory by the active-set size and limit gradient chaining to at most one Jacobian factor. Across SD3.5-M, FLUX.1-dev, and FLUX.2-Klein-base on preference, quality, and compositional metrics, the three variants improve over direct-gradient baselines on most metrics.

Diffusion and flow-matching schedules control the signal and noise coefficients that mix data and noise along affine probability paths. Minimizing a kinetic action defined on coefficient paths, motivated by optimal transport, helps explain strong baselines but remains model-agnostic and ignores prediction error. Here we introduce a model-aware schedule construction based on fiberwise optimal transport. At a fixed time and state on the probability path, compatible signal/noise decompositions form an affine fiber. We define a fiberwise prediction risk by averaging optimal-transport costs between the true and predictor-induced decompositions within these fibers. On a fixed coefficient curve, combining this risk with coefficient-path kinetic action yields a closed-form optimal time allocation. This construction extends to general linear prediction targets, and the risk profile can be estimated from an early baseline checkpoint. We evaluate DDPMs and flow matching across prediction targets, training configurations, risk-estimation checkpoints, datasets, and architectures. Our model-aware schedules consistently outperform strong baselines, including a 38.6% relative FID reduction for flow matching on CIFAR-10 at 16 function evaluations. Each model-agnostic kinetic baseline determines its own kinetic reference coordinate. In these coordinates, fiberwise-risk profiles from independently trained models in different settings align closely after normalization to unit area. The resulting schedule deformations used in training also align, suggesting empirical universality across the evaluated models and settings. Pretrained-checkpoint diagnostics extend this normalized-risk agreement to larger conditional latent diffusion and 2-RF models. A frozen analytic allocation template retains most of the model-aware improvement without further risk estimation or model-specific fitting.

Chains of thought (CoTs) have become central in interpreting and auditing behaviors of large language models. Yet growing evidence suggests that these traces often fail to faithfully represent the computations behind a model's predictions. Several faithfulness metrics have been proposed, but whether they indeed measure faithfulness remains unknown. Answering this requires ground-truth labels, which are hard to obtain since internal computations are not directly observable. Consequently, most works proposing metrics report only absolute scores or comparisons to prior metrics, and the few existing benchmarks rely on proxies like plausibility or importance, properties orthogonal to faithfulness that can mislead about whether a CoT can be trusted. We address this challenge by constructing tasks whose outputs reveal which intermediate computations must have produced them, and developing an automated labeling pipeline that yields ground-truth faithfulness labels at both the step and CoT level. Building on this methodology, we present BonaFide, a benchmark of 3,066 labeled CoTs across 13 tasks and 10 models, and use it to conduct the first systematic evaluation of prominent faithfulness metrics. Our experiments show that most metrics perform near chance, exhibit strong prediction biases and degrade on longer CoTs. The best metric reaches only 0.70 AUROC at the CoT level while another reaches 0.59 at the step level, with neither transferring across settings, while entailing prohibitively high computational cost. Our results expose fundamental gaps in current faithfulness evaluation and call for the development of more reliable and efficient metrics.

Market manipulation now routinely originates from coordinated social media campaigns, not isolated trades. Retail investors, regulators, and brokerages need tools that connect online narratives and coordination patterns to market behavior. We present AIMM, an AI-driven framework that fuses Reddit activity, bot and coordination indicators, and OHLCV market features into a daily AIMM Manipulation Risk Score for each ticker. The system uses a parquet-native pipeline with a Streamlit dashboard that allows analysts to explore suspicious windows, inspect underlying posts and price action, and log model outputs over time. Due to Reddit API restrictions, we employ calibrated synthetic social features matching documented event characteristics; market data (OHLCV) uses real historical data from Yahoo Finance. This release makes three contributions. First, we build the AIMM Ground Truth dataset (AIMM-GT): 33 labeled ticker-days spanning eight equities, drawing from SEC enforcement actions, community-verified manipulation cases, and matched normal controls. Second, we implement forward-walk evaluation and prospective prediction logging for both retrospective and deployment-style assessment. Third, we analyze lead times and show that AIMM flagged GME 22 days before the January 2021 squeeze peak. The current labeled set is small (33 ticker-days, 3 positive events), but results show preliminary discriminative capability and early warnings for the GME incident. We release the code, dataset schema, and dashboard design to support research on social media-driven market surveillance.

Generating high-quality time series data has emerged as a critical research topic due to its broad utility in supporting downstream time series mining tasks. A major challenge lies in modeling the intrinsic stochasticity of temporal dynamics, as real-world sequences often exhibit random fluctuations and localized variations. While diffusion models have achieved remarkable success, their generation process is computationally inefficient, often requiring hundreds to thousands of expensive function evaluations per sample. Flow matching has emerged as a more efficient paradigm, yet its conventional ordinary differential equation (ODE)-based formulation fails to explicitly capture stochasticity, thereby limiting the fidelity of generated sequences. By contrast, stochastic differential equation (SDE) are naturally suited for modeling randomness and uncertainty. Motivated by these insights, we propose TimeFlow, a novel SDE-based flow matching framework that integrates a encoder-only architecture. Specifically, we design a component-wise decomposed velocity field to capture the multi-faceted structure of time series and augment the vanilla flow-matching optimization with an additional stochastic term to enhance representational expressiveness. TimeFlow is flexible and general, supporting both unconditional and conditional generation tasks within a unified framework. Extensive experiments across diverse datasets demonstrate that our model consistently outperforms strong baselines in generation quality, diversity, and efficiency.

This paper addresses the problem of evaluating the quality of automatically generated subtitles, which includes not only the quality of the machine-transcribed or translated speech, but also the quality of line segmentation and subtitle timing. We propose SubER - a single novel metric based on edit distance with shifts that takes all of these subtitle properties into account. We compare it to existing metrics for evaluating transcription, translation, and subtitle quality. A careful human evaluation in a post-editing scenario shows that the new metric has a high correlation with the post-editing effort and direct human assessment scores, outperforming baseline metrics considering only the subtitle text, such as WER and BLEU, and existing methods to integrate segmentation and timing features.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has become a central post-training tool for improving the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs). In these systems, the rollout, the trajectory sampled from a prompt to termination, including intermediate reasoning steps and optional tool or environment interactions, determines the data the optimizer learns from, yet rollout design is often underreported. This survey provides an optimizer-agnostic view of rollout strategies for RL-based post-training of reasoning LLMs. We formalize rollout pipelines with unified notation and introduce Generate-Filter-Control-Replay (GFCR), a lifecycle taxonomy that decomposes rollout pipelines into four modular stages: Generate proposes candidate trajectories and topologies; Filter constructs intermediate signals via verifiers, judges, critics; Control allocates compute and makes continuation/branching/stopping decisions under budgets; and Replay retains and reuses artifacts across rollouts without weight updates, including self-evolving curricula that autonomously generate new training tasks. We complement GFCR with a criterion taxonomy of reliability, coverage, and cost sensitivity that characterizes rollout trade-offs. Using this framework, we synthesize methods spanning RL with verifiable rewards, process supervision, judge-based gating, guided and tree/segment rollouts, adaptive compute allocation, early-exit and partial rollouts, throughput optimization, and replay/recomposition for self-improvement. We ground the framework with case studies in math, code/SQL, multimodal reasoning, tool-using agents, and agentic skill benchmarks that evaluate skill induction, reuse, and cross-task transfer. Finally, we provide a diagnostic index that maps common rollout pathologies to GFCR modules and mitigation levers, alongside open challenges for building reproducible, compute-efficient, and trustworthy rollout pipelines.

This position paper emphasizes the critical gap in the evaluation of Explainable AI (XAI) due to the lack of standardized and reliable metrics, which diminishes its practical value, trustworthiness, and ability to meet regulatory requirements. Current evaluation methods are often fragmented, subjective, and biased, making them prone to manipulation and complicating the assessment of complex models. A central issue is the absence of a ground truth for explanations, complicating comparisons across various XAI approaches. To address these challenges, we advocate for widespread research into developing robust, context-sensitive evaluation metrics. These metrics should be resistant to manipulation, relevant to each use case, and based on human judgment and real-world applicability. We also recommend creating domain-specific evaluation benchmarks that align with the user and regulatory needs of sectors such as healthcare and finance. By encouraging collaboration among academia, industry, and regulators, we can create standards that balance flexibility and consistency, ensuring XAI explanations are meaningful, trustworthy, and compliant with evolving regulations.

Instruct LLM provide a paradigm used in large scale language model to align LLM to human preference. The paradigm contains supervised fine tuning and reinforce learning from human feedback. This paradigm is also used in downstream scenarios to adapt LLM to specific corpora and applications. Comparing to SFT, there are many efforts focused on RLHF and several algorithms being proposed, such as PPO, DPO, IPO, KTO, MinorDPO and etc. Meanwhile most efforts for SFT are focused on how to collect, filter and mix high quality data. In this article with insight from DPO and MinorDPO, we propose a training metric for SFT to measure the discrepancy between the optimized model and the original model, and a loss function MinorSFT that can increase the training effectiveness, and reduce the discrepancy between the optimized LLM and original LLM.

Financial time series (FinTS) record the behavior of human-brain-augmented decision-making, capturing valuable historical information that can be leveraged for profitable investment strategies. Not surprisingly, this area has attracted considerable attention from researchers, who have proposed a wide range of methods based on various backbones. However, the evaluation of the area often exhibits three systemic limitations: 1. Failure to account for the full spectrum of stock movement patterns observed in dynamic financial markets. (Diversity Gap), 2. The absence of unified assessment protocols undermines the validity of cross-study performance comparisons. (Standardization Deficit), and 3. Neglect of critical market structure factors, resulting in inflated performance metrics that lack practical applicability. (Real-World Mismatch). Addressing these limitations, we propose FinTSB, a comprehensive and practical benchmark for financial time series forecasting (FinTSF). To increase the variety, we categorize movement patterns into four specific parts, tokenize and pre-process the data, and assess the data quality based on some sequence characteristics. To eliminate biases due to different evaluation settings, we standardize the metrics across three dimensions and build a user-friendly, lightweight pipeline incorporating methods from various backbones. To accurately simulate real-world trading scenarios and facilitate practical implementation, we extensively model various regulatory constraints, including transaction fees, among others. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on FinTSB, highlighting key insights to guide model selection under varying market conditions. Overall, FinTSB provides researchers with a novel and comprehensive platform for improving and evaluating FinTSF methods. The code is available at https://github.com/TongjiFinLab/FinTSB.